Welcome to a brand new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself, you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.
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Before we get going, a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4 point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. Since this typically drops on Fridays, this will not include a Thursday Night Football prop. Let’s dive right into this week’s props!
Current Record: 11-4; Week 6: 3-1
D’Andre Swift OVER 13.65 Fantasy Points
Swift has not played since Week 3, but prior to his injury he had picked up where he left off in 2021, rushing for 231 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries while adding 8 catches for 77 yards and another score. The Lions haven’t quite looked the same in his absence, with Jamaal Williams picking up most of the reps but not looking quite as explosive as Swift is.
Now that Swift has been rested through the bye, it feels like a quick return to glory is here. The Lions draw the Dallas Cowboys this weekend, and it feels like a prime spot for Swift to feast. The Cowboys have a solid defense, but they are a run funnel, since they rank 3rd against the pass and 17th against the run. This works out well since the Lions have one of the better offensive lines in football and rank 5th in rushing DVOA. Look for Swift to get back on track here and get into the end zone.
Dak Prescott OVER 34 Pass Attempts
On the other side of this matchup, Prescott makes his first appearance since Week 1, having had surgery on his thumb and missing the following 5 weeks. He gets a marquee matchup right away in the Lions, whose high-scoring offense can get outshined by their murky-at-best defense. The Lions rank last in both yards allowed per game and points allowed as well as 26th in pass yards allowed per game, so they can be scored on.
Enter the Cowboys and Prescott into this conversation, who are no strangers to throwing the football a lot. The Cowboys have frequently ranked in the top half of the league in passing rate the last few years with Prescott, and this year is no different. In 3 of his 5 starts, Cooper Rush had 31 or more passing attempts, and those games were all low-scoring wins except for last week’s Eagles game where he attempted 38 passes.
Prescott had already thrown 29 passes when he was injured midway through the third quarter in Week 1, and he had 34 or more attempts in 10 of 16 games last season as well. I expect this to be a high-scoring game with a lot of points, and Prescott to keep slinging it.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire UNDER 34.5 Rushing Yards
Cutting this one pretty close, I believe that the Chiefs will NOT be able to have their way offensively with the 49ers in this matchup. The Niners had a tough time with the Falcons last week, but are seeing a lot of names back at practice this week, including Nick Bosa, among other key defensive starters.
Edwards-Helaire has not gone over 33 rushing yards in either of his last two games, and this has also coincided with the uptick in usage of Jerick McKinnon, who has seen more snaps in each of those two games. It’s been pretty difficult to predict where the Chiefs will go on a weekly basis with the RB room, but it seems pretty clear that they aren’t massive fans of CEH anymore.
Austin Ekeler UNDER 14.5 Rushing Attempts
This immediately jumped out to me, and it’s still mystifying me as I type this out. Ekeler has had a big rebound to his season after starting extremely slow, but this number is weirder than it appears: Ekeler has only gone over 14.5 attempts once this season, when he had 16 in Week 5. He’s had 3 games with 14 carries on the dot.
I’m rolling with the under here because while this Seahawks defense has given up bunches of points, this feels like a game where both sides would want to air it out. The Chargers have also been fine letting Ekeler rest for short yardage attempts and content to give the ball to Sony Michel or Josh Kelley in those spots instead, something I expect to continue.
Final Thoughts
When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 10-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all four legs hit, you will win $1,000 total!
Alternatively, you can choose to get Insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other three do, you get paid at 1.5-1 odds, while winning at 6-1 odds if you still hit all four legs.
