These 2020 rookies are ranked for long-term dynasty purposes based on talent, coaching, supporting cast, and other factors. To get their outlook for 2020 alone, view our site projections, available in early May.
Remember to download Greg Cosell’s 2020 NFL Draft Guide for detailed breakdowns on the skill sets of many of these prospects.
1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC, 1st round, 32nd overall from LSU)
The Super Bowl champs made a luxury pick, bringing in the former LSU bowling ball to anchor Andy Reid’s backfield. This is a player Reid said Patrick Mahomes lobbied to draft. And without getting into tired discussions about the value of the RB position overall … well, this kicks ass for fantasy.
Edwards-Helaire is a determined, hard-to-bring-down runner with excellent receiving skills. Reid compared him to Brian Westbrook in a conversation with GM Brett Veach before the 2020 NFL Draft… but better. And Reid knows his running backs, especially fantasy running backs. Dating back to his time in Philadelphia, Reid has gotten extremely high fantasy production from Duce Staley, Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Kareem Hunt, and even Damien Williams. If all goes well for CEH — like Westbrook, McCoy, and Charles — he will be a player entering the 1.1 overall redraft discussions early in his tenure with Reid.
For now, let’s focus on the obvious — CEH is the overwhelming 1.1 rookie dynasty favorite, and a good bet to be selected in the 2nd round by aggressive drafters in redraft leagues as a rookie. Remember, the Chiefs probably didn’t even need him — over the last two years, Williams has played 60% of the Chiefs’ snaps in 11 games. He’s averaged 25.0 FPG in those games. (For context, Christian McCaffrey averaged 29.5 FPG in his ridiculous 2019 season.)
The Chiefs probably understand RB value. They also understand good football players. CEH is one of them. This fit is absolutely glorious for fantasy purposes.
2. Jonathan Taylor (Ind, 2nd round, 41st overall from Wisconsin)
Taylor has a somewhat curious landing spot with a Colts backfield that saw Marlon Mack gain 1999 rushing yards over the last two seasons and Nyheim Hines catch 107 passes over the same span. But I’m going to try not to overthink this one — the Colts plan on using the 226-pound Taylor as their hammer, bell-cow back.
Let’s look at the evidence in Taylor’s favor. First of all, the guy was a ridiculously good prospect. Our Greg Cosell compared him to Ezekiel Elliott, and the Colts are not a dumb franchise — they shouldn’t be drafting (and trading up for!) a guy like Taylor to give him 8-10 carries per game. This is someone who needs 15-20 touches to really get the best out of him, and I suspect the Colts will give them to him. Additionally, he’s playing behind Philip Rivers. Rivers is a future Hall-of-Fame passer, but at this stage of his illustrious career, the 38-year-old veteran needs a sustaining run game behind him. He’ll get that with Taylor. For what it’s worth, Taylor is maybe the most underrated receiver at his position in this class, as well.
Another feather in Taylor’s cap is the Colts’ spectacular offensive line, which ranked 3rd on PFF’s season-ending rankings after 2019. A bigger back with outrageous athleticism, my call is Taylor will be the Colts’ #1 back immediately. He’s a great selection as the 1.2 rookie pick, and sharp players will be drafting him as a top-36 redraft selection.
3. JK Dobbins (Bal, 2nd round, 55th overall from Ohio State)
Yes, talent is important, but perhaps nothing is more imperative for fantasy production at the RB position than landing spot. And Dobbins flopped the nuts. Going a little later than expected — some thought he had an outside shot to be the first RB drafted in 2020 — Dobbins is in a prime position to succeed as a rookie … depending on when he gets on the field.
A one-cut, downhill runner best suited for inside zone and gap scheme runs, Dobbins is a brilliant fit with Lamar Jackson’s Ravens. Behind Jackson in his 22 career starts, all RBs average 5.09 YPC (for context, Devin Singletary led all qualifying RBs at 5.13 YPC last season). While Greg Cosell had some concerns about Dobbins being a true foundation back, he won’t need to be in Baltimore, at least early in his career, as Mark Ingram is still very effective.
Ultimately, I’m not sure Dobbins will ever need to be a “foundation” back in Baltimore, given how different Baltimore’s run game is from every other team’s. Greg Roman’s scheme — based around Jackson’s unique abilities — is the foundation. What Roman needs is a decisive, explosive runner to maximize it, and Dobbins’ fit is ideal in that regard. While he isn’t naturally powerful, he’s an aggressive runner, and he can provide value in the passing game as well.
Dobbins probably will work in a rotation early in his career, but if Ingram were to get injured or slow down, he could be a veritable league-winner, in much the same way Nick Chubb (2018) and Miles Sanders (2019) were in the second half of their rookie seasons the last two years. For dynasty, Dobbins’ landing spot is glorious, though he doesn’t have the immediate outlook of Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Jonathan Taylor.
4. Cam Akers (LAR, 2nd round, 52nd overall from Florida State)
There are two schools of thought on the Rams’ somewhat surprising pick of Akers in the 2020 NFL Draft. First, the Rams don’t really know how to properly value the RB position. The second is that they really missed on Darrell Henderson, a 3rd-round pick in 2019.
Both may be true. Todd Gurley is gone, as the Rams ate significant money just to get him off their team once it was evident his arthritic knee wasn’t going to allow him to play up to his previous highs. But even though the Rams clearly were worried about Gurley dating back to late 2018 (when CJ Anderson ran ahead of him in the Super Bowl), Henderson couldn’t get on the field as a rookie, playing just 93 offensive snaps despite being a premium draft pick. So the Rams are doubling down with Akers, a fascinating prospect who ran behind a terrible offensive line at Florida State.
If Henderson struggled to pick up the Rams’ offense last year, I don’t think Akers will be the same, given his high-school QB background and his innate understanding of defensive fronts and where gaps should emerge. I think Akers’ smarts on film really appealed to the Rams, and that’s critical because their offensive line was terrible last year — 31st per PFF.
This is a nasty backfield to break down for fantasy purposes, as the Rams’ line “paved the way” to no RB averaging 4.0 YPC last year, while Henderson is entering just his second year and Malcolm Brown is a coaches’ favorite. But Akers’ traits, including his receiving ability, combined with his draft capital make him the best bet for success in Sean McVay’s attack. But anything earlier than 75 picks or so into redraft leagues is probably a bit too rich given the uncertainty.
5. D’Andre Swift (Det, 2nd round, 35th overall from Georgia)
For as good a landing spot as the top three backs on this list have… Swift’s is brutal. It’s not so much that I have so much faith in Kerryon Johnson, who plodded his way to 3.6 YPC in 2019 and suffered his second season-ending knee injury in as many seasons. It’s that coach Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn in Detroit are adamant in rotating RBs, and if their comments on the subject are to be taken at face value, Swift will be the “lightning” to Johnson’s “thunder.”
A 4.48 runner at 212 pounds, Swift was probably the second-best pure receiver at his position in the Draft, behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He also ran extensively in a “pro-style” scheme, with a lot of experience as the tailback in an I formation.
Our Greg Cosell compared Swift to a Dalvin Cook style player, which is very exciting, given he’s playing behind a solid if unspectacular Detroit offensive line. However, it seems likely he’s part of a rotation early in his career, unless Patricia and OC Darrell Bevell see so much out of him that they can’t keep him off the field. I love Swift as a prospect, but he has the profile of a “boom or bust” fantasy pick, at least in 2020, when aggressive fantasy drafters might start to consider him around 70 picks in, by betting on his talent.
6. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB, 3rd round, 76th overall from Vanderbilt)
The Buccaneers are gearing up for a Super Bowl run, you might have heard (teams typically don’t sign six-time champion, 43-year-old QBs to rebuild). And they addressed key needs in the Draft, including offensive line (first-rounder Tristan Wirfs) and running back. Vaughn could come in and instantly become the Buccaneers’ early-down RB.
The question is… what does that mean? Ronald Jones has been terribly underwhelming in his career thus far, but instead of the Bucs drafting a “pass-catching” RB early, as coach Bruce Arians said he wanted to do, they actually drafted a similar type player to Jones in Vaughn, a straight-line, downhill explosive runner who reminded our Greg Cosell of Sony Michel (funny how that works out).
While Vaughn isn’t the “jitterbug” type of receiver that Tom Brady likes in the James White, Danny Woodhead, Kevin Faulk mode, it is an aspect of his game that I — and the Bucs — view as underrated.
Projecting Vaughn for fantasy requires us to ask a few questions. Is he obviously above Jones on the depth chart? How good will the Bucs’ defense — which improved significantly under DC Todd Bowles last year — be? And how will intriguing seventh-round rookie Raymond Calais (whom Arians called a “joystick” type of back) fit into the equation? Hopefully we have some sort of off-season program this summer to begin to answer those questions, because Vaughn is another “boom or bust” type of fantasy pick.
7. Anthony McFarland Jr. (Pit, 4th round, 124th overall from Maryland)
The Steelers’ selection of McFarland is a fascinating one for fantasy purposes, because you can read into it from different perspectives. If you’re a James Conner truther, McFarland is merely a fourth-round pick who profiles more as a change-of-pace player, and it’s a good sign the Steelers didn’t invest an earlier pick on a back (say, JK Dobbins in the second round). If you think the Steelers don’t trust Conner’s health, McFarland profiles as someone who could pair nicely with the grinding Benny Snell in a two-man backfield. The truth, as always, is likely somewhere in between.
McFarland has an injury history. He broke his leg as a senior in high school, then redshirted as a true freshman at Maryland. He returned healthy in 2018, putting together a spectacular first campaign with the Terps, including a breakout game against Ohio State in which he posted 298 yards on 21 carries, with 2 TD. But his 2019 tape was littered with inconsistency, amid reports McFarland was struggling through a high-ankle sprain. He still led the 2020 Draft class in Graham Barfield’s Yards Created Per Attempt metric (5.89).
A hard-charging, undersized, downhill runner with good straight-line speed but little creativity in the open field, McFarland reminds of a Matt Breida or Phillip Lindsay type of player at the NFL level. Though he only caught 24 passes in college, I think that will become a bigger part of his game in the NFL, especially on screens and wheels. Just how good he becomes in that department will tell the full fantasy story, so there’s plenty of upside here. He’s worth a shot in redraft leagues around the 10th round, because he profiles as someone who can contribute in a rotational role even if he won’t be a full-time back. When in doubt, bet on a young back in a good offense, which this will be if (a big if) Ben Roethlisberger is healthy. I’ll be targeting McFarland a lot in best ball leagues if he doesn’t get prohibitively expensive, and I love him as a third-round dynasty pick.
8. Zack Moss (Buf, 3rd round, 86th overall from Utah)
Here’s a line from Greg Cosell’s NFL Draft Guide about Moss: “There are elements of Frank Gore in Moss with his size and running style/contact balance/competitiveness.” Well now!
The Bills must have seen the same thing, because Moss is going to replace Gore in a dual backfield with 2019 rookie Devin Singletary. Unfortunately, that means fewer touchdown opportunities for Singletary, as GM Brandon Beane flat-out confirmed in an interview with SiriusXM NFL Radio. Ultimately, it may mean fewer TD opportunities for Moss, too, because the Bills’ goal-line back is Josh Allen in much the same way Cam Newton was Carolina’s goal-line back for years (Allen has 17 rushing TD in two NFL seasons).
A good receiver who can play on all three downs if needed, Moss will still be splitting time with the explosive Singletary, who led all qualifying RBs (150 or more carries) with 5.13 YPC last season. Gore is vacating 179 touches, which Moss will have a chance to usurp. But even if Moss gets all of those touches, will he have enough passing game or TD equity to be anything more than a fantasy RB4? That’s hard to say.
9. Antonio Gibson (Was, 3rd round, 66th overall from Memphis)
One of the most fascinating players in the 2020 NFL Draft, Gibson was either a running back or a wide receiver, based on the eye of the beholder. The Redskins plan to use him at RB, though he likely won’t be “restricted” there.
Gibson had a ridiculous final season at Memphis, averaging 19.3 YPR on 38 receptions and 11.2 YPC on 33 carries, making him arguably the most explosive player in college football. He can line up from a variety of positions, but can create the most mismatches out of the backfield. He ran a 4.39 40 at the Combine at 6’0”, 228 pounds, putting him in Jonathan Taylor territory. This guy can fly, and offensive coordinator Scott Turner has experience using a spectacular receiving back from his time with Christian McCaffrey in Carolina.
Unfortunately, Gibson lands in the sloppiest fantasy backfield in the NFL, where Adrian Peterson, Derrius Guice, Peyton Barber, Bryce Love, and JD McKissic are all competing for touches. Gibson’s skill set is different than all of those guys, but how many snaps will be at his disposal? I generally lean toward avoiding this backfield overall, but I think I can make an exception in PPR redraft in the double-digit rounds for Gibson, in the event he becomes Dwayne Haskins’ go-to receiver on third downs.
10. Darrynton Evans (Ten, 3rd round, 93rd overall from Appalachian State)
We generally expect third-round rookie RBs to have a significant role right away, but Evans didn’t land in the right spot for that — he’s buried behind Derrick Henry, for the time being. An explosive runner with positive receiving ability, but also a slashing style that profiles well to an outside-zone scheme which — surprise! — the Titans use better than any team in football.
With a solid receiving game, Evans can give Henry a breather on third-and-long, but most importantly for fantasy, he profiles as a premium handcuff and a far better fit for OC Arthur Smith’s scheme than the departed Dion Lewis. He can also contribute as a kick returner. In dynasty, he’s even more intriguing, as Henry is currently playing on a one-year franchise tag (though the Titans are interested in extending him).
Evans’ role isn’t likely to be big enough for fantasy relevance if Henry is healthy. But though he’s not Henry in terms of size (no one is), he’d be an instant top-12 RB if Henry isn’t available because he’s a much better receiver and still a good fit in the scheme. As a premium handcuff, he’s likely to be selected in most fantasy drafts.
11. AJ Dillon (GB, 2nd round, 62nd overall from Boston College)
The Jordan Love pick pissed Packer fans off, but it’s understandable — Aaron Rodgers is in the twilight of his career and his play is slipping. But Dillon in the second round is a real head-scratcher, as running back was likely the strongest position on the entire Packers roster in 2019 (Aaron Jones led all players with 19 TD, and Jamaal Williams is a solid rotational piece).
The prototypical grinder prospect, Dillon carried 845 times in three seasons at Boston College, for 4382 yards and 38 TD (5.2 YPC). And for his size, Dillon can move — he ran a 4.53 40 and jumped out of the building in Indy despite being 6’0” and 247 pounds. It’s just hard to find him a role for 2020, given Jones and Williams are both back (though in the final year of their contracts).
What the Dillon pick suggests is a pure philosophy change — Rodgers’ play is declining, he leaves throws on the field, and the Packers didn’t add a single WR in the Draft. Coach Matt LaFleur comes from the Sean McVay school of thought, where the run game is integral, and he coached Derrick Henry in his lone season as OC in Tennessee in 2018, when the Titans switched their foundation to Henry midway through the year. It’s likely LaFleur sees Henry in Dillion, given his size. But Henry was a far better prospect, and it’s hard to really find the snaps Dillon will need to succeed for fantasy as a rookie. Chances are the Packers will move on from at least Williams in 2021 if you’re looking for dynasty, but it takes a lot of projection to select Dillon even in the early second round of rookie drafts.
12. DeeJay Dallas (Sea, 4th round, 144th overall from Miami)
Anyone looking for potential instant impact from the later rounds of a rookie dynasty draft, or even the very late rounds of a redraft league, should give thought to Dallas in Seattle’s scheme. First of all, as a downhill, aggressive runner, he fits the mold of what the Seahawks want to do. Secondly, if you want evidence that Dallas could instantly overtake Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny in this backfield, look no further than Carson himself.
Little regarded as a seventh-round pick out of Oklahoma State in 2017, Carson impressed coaches enough to win Seattle’s starting RB job as a rookie. And though that season ended early with a broken leg, he won the job again in 2018, despite Seattle spending a first-round pick on Penny. Unfortunately for Carson (hip) and Penny (ACL), they’re both coming off serious injuries, and the club needed some insurance.
Yes, the Seahawks could have taken a back earlier and didn’t. That’s at least some good news for the incumbents. But Pete Carroll’s club has also established that draft capital doesn’t matter when it comes to strapping on the pads. Those who earn playing time will play in Seattle. Dallas should have an opportunity.
13. La’Mical Perine (NYJ, 4th round, 120th overall from Florida)
A prospect with a solid sustaining-back profile and underrated receiving skills, Perine instantly becomes the top backup for Le’Veon Bell, a spot where the Jets struggled a season ago. But for his dynasty outlook, it’s worth noting that he’s not terribly explosive (4.62 40) was never the feature back in college, carrying fewer than 140 times in each of his four college seasons with Florida. On the positive side, he caught 40 passes as a senior, and has plenty of tread left on his tires. He’s in theory a very good handcuff for Bell, though the Jets’ still-shaky offensive line and the addition of Frank Gore could limit his upside if forced into significant action.
14. Joshua Kelley (LAC, 4th round, 112nd overall from UCLA)
While Kelley wasn’t a total standout as a college player, he was used quite a bit under Chip Kelly at UCLA, carrying 454 times for 2303 yards (5.1 YPC) with 24 TD in two years. But a strong Combine with a 4.49 40-yard-dash and solid broad jump suggest he can be a sustaining, downhill runner in the NFL. The good news for fantasy is that Kelley’s skill set likely doesn’t impact the role of Austin Ekeler, who’s going to be a top-24 fantasy pick. He’s probably going to compete with Justin Jackson for rotational snaps.
15. Lynn Bowden (LV, 3rd round, 80th overall from Kentucky)
If you have any clue on how Jon Gruden’s Raiders will use Bowden exactly, clue me in. But the former WR/RB/QB at Kentucky — he had 185 carries, 30 receptions, and 74 pass attempts as a junior — is just a good football player, and his versatility alone made him worth a third-round pick. He averaged 7.9 YPC and scored 13 TD on those 185 carries… one year after he had just 9 carries and caught 67 passes. The Raiders are listing Bowden as a running back and return specialist, so his impact is likely to be more in the “actual football” terms than for fantasy, but he’s going to be fascinating to follow. He’s simply one of the most exciting prospects in the Draft class, even if his fantasy impact is going to be more annoying for Josh Jacobs than anything else.
16. Eno Benjamin (Ari, 7th round, 222nd overall from Arizona State)
Benjamin stays home in the Phoenix area, where he’ll be the #3 back behind Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. It’s a good spot for him, as he can contribute on special teams, and has to be watched from the low end for fantasy because his best trait in college was his receiving ability (77/610/4 receiving over the last two seasons). He’s just not a particularly talented runner, which means he’s got an uphill climb to relevance, especially since he’s buried on the depth chart.
17. Jason Huntley (Det, 5th round, 172nd overall from New Mexico State)
Few backs — if any — have the receiving experience of Huntley coming out of New Mexico State. He caught 126 passes for 1084 yards over the last three seasons in Las Cruces, where he succeeded record-holder Larry Rose III at tailback. While he’s buried at tailback behind fellow rookie D’Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson, Huntley reportedly ran a 4.37 40-yard-dash at his pro day, and can contribute in the return game. Special teams will be his key to sticking around, and maybe he can earn rotational snaps in the future.
18. Raymond Calais (TB, 7th round, 245th overall from Louisiana-Lafayette)
If one of the guys buried on the initial rookie RB rankings has a shot to shoot up the board with a strong summer program — given there is a summer program — it’s Calais, who fits a role the Bucs might not have filled otherwise. Coach Bruce Arians called the Group of 5 product a smaller version of David Johnson, and his 4.42 40-yard dash in Indianapolis likely got him drafted despite his 5’8”, 188-pound frame. The problem is Calais needs to profile as a receiver to stick in this backfield, and he caught just 17 passes in college. He will have a shot to compete with Dare Ogunbowale for snaps. Keep an eye on him, especially if he’s able to form a rapport with Tom Brady.
19. Malcolm Perry (Mia, 7th round, 246th overall from Navy)
Perry might be one of the draft’s coolest stories — he was literally pulled out of the stands to play QB as a freshman at Navy, and he finished his career as the AAC Offensive Player of the Year, running for over 2000 yards and throwing for over 1000 as a senior. Obviously, at 5’9” and 186 pounds, he’s not playing QB at the next level, as few triple-option QBs do. But he’ll get a shot to compete for RB snaps on a completely rebuilt depth chart with Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, and he’s a high-character individual who will put in the work to change positions. He’s just not overly athletic.
This article will be updated when we get information on which UDFA RBs could be in the mix to make an impact as rookies.
