These 2020 rookies are ranked for long-term dynasty purposes based on talent, coaching, supporting cast, and other factors. To get their outlook for 2020 alone, view our site projections, available in early May.
Remember to download Greg Cosell’s 2020 NFL Draft Guide for detailed breakdowns on the skill sets of many of these prospects.
1. Joe Burrow (Cin, 1st round, 1st overall from LSU)
The best QB prospect in this class — whether Tua Tagovailoa is healthy or not — lands in a sneaky-good spot to produce right away. The Bengals went 2-14 in 2019, but actually held a lead in 12 of their 16 games at some point. Burrow’s supporting cast at WR includes veteran star AJ Green, slot specialist Tyler Boyd, and intriguing rookie Tee Higgins. Whatever the Bengals get out of speedy 2017 first-rounder John Ross is a bonus. Burrow also has two excellent pass-catching RBs in Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard. In many ways, coach Zac Taylor can replicate what made Burrow so successful in his all-time great season at LSU in 2019, during which Burrow threw 60 TDs, won the Heisman Trophy, and led the Bayou Bengals to the National Championship.
The biggest concern for Burrow is his offensive line, which gets 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams back at LT but still has holes, as the Bengals surprisingly didn’t draft a lineman until the 6th round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Burrow’s elusiveness and playmaking will help things, but it’s definitely the weak spot on what’s overall a pretty talented offense. Nonetheless, he is a no-doubt Week 1 starter, with about as good a situation as one could imagine a #1 overall pick coming into. He also averaged 6.6 FPG simply as a runner the last two seasons… compared to 3.0 for Justin Herbert.
There’s a legitimate chance Burrow — who also comes in at a more advanced age of 23 — puts up top-12 QB numbers as a rookie.
2. Tua Tagovailoa (Mia, 1st round, 5th overall from Alabama)
The 2019 campaign among Dolphin fans, anticipating their team would be an all-time bad one, was known as “Tank for Tua.” Miami landing the 5th overall pick and still managing to nab the Alabama star meant some things went “wrong” — the Dolphins, led by fiery veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, were better than expected. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa suffered a serious hip injury that ended his junior campaign in Tuscaloosa, while LSU’s Joe Burrow outshined him in every way possible en route to a Heisman Trophy and National Championship.
Tua now enters the league with some questions. All reports are that his hip injury is fully healed or close to it, but because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Dolphins doctors haven’t been able to look at him. Additionally, he joins a Miami roster that isn’t barren, but isn’t anywhere near as stacked for fantasy purposes as Burrow’s Bengals or Justin Herbert’s Chargers.
The NFL’s only left-handed QB, Tagovailoa will be throwing to 2019 breakout star DeVante Parker, intriguing 2019 rookie Preston Williams, athletic TE Mike Gesicki and a bunch of “guys,” namely vet Albert Wilson and speedy gadget player Jakeem Grant. The Dolphins’ main focus during the 2020 NFL Draft, instead, was beefing up in front of their new QB, spending three picks in the first four rounds on offensive linemen.
Burrow is a better prospect across the board than Tua, but as of now, he’s also set up better for success with the supporting cast around him. If Tagovailoa is to have high-end fantasy success, he will have to play — as Greg Cosell has said — similarly to a Drew Brees type of ball distributor. Tua doesn’t have a power arm, but he’s accurate, smart, and decisive on RPOs. Hopefully, new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey will get some sort of offseason work with Tua to implement the tactics that made him so successful at Alabama. Given the presence of Fitzmagic, though, the Dolphins don’t need to start him Week 1 if he isn’t ready. As a rookie, Tua projects as a mid-to-low QB2, with obviously a far better long-term outlook if the Dolphins give him more weapons.
3. Justin Herbert (LAC, 1st round, 6th overall from Oregon)
If we’re talking pure physical skills, nobody in the 2020 QB class has more than Herbert. He’s big, he has a great arm, and he can move — in ways, he’s reminiscent of Josh Allen. As a 4.0 student at Oregon, we know he’s likely to pick the offense up quickly, even without a traditional off-season program. But GPA doesn’t always translate to the on-field game, and Charger fans should expect a far different offense than they’re used to seeing with Philip Rivers at the helm.
Rivers was the definition of a ball distributor — a cerebral passer who knew coverages, knew his route concepts, and would progress through his reads at rapid speed. Herbert, like Allen, is much more of a “power” thrower who uses his natural athleticism to try to create plays. This could result in an uptick of production for a big-play receiver like Mike Williams, but potentially a hit in production for the likes of the volume-based Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler (though Herbert did show a good sense for the screen game at Oregon). On the other hand, Herbert’s mobility could contribute to his fantasy value in a way it never did for Rivers — Rivers has 609 career rushing yards, a total Herbert could pass in as little as two seasons.
Herbert will be a project of coaching and the system coach Anthony Lynn and OC Shane Steichen put him in, but it’s worth noting the Chargers are built very much like Josh Allen’s Bills — this is a team with a strong defense and a good run game, which Allen has in Buffalo. Herbert’s offensive line is a question mark, though, which his mobility could help offset a bit. Herbert has Allen-like fantasy upside with his movement ability and the Chargers’ strong supporting cast, but it remains to be seen if he’ll start his entire rookie season, as the Chargers have an appealing bridge option in Tyrod Taylor. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Herbert produce some up-and-down fantasy numbers if he starts as a rookie.
4. Jordan Love (GB, 1st round, 26th overall from Utah State)
There’s a pretty simple question about Love’s fantasy outlook: when the hell is he even going to play? The Packers’ 2020 NFL Draft has been panned across the board, not necessarily because some didn’t, erm, love Love’s tape (and he was indeed polarizing), but because it showed a bizarre plan for a team that made it to the NFC Championship Game a season ago.
Aaron Rodgers’ play is definitely slipping, but it doesn’t help that Rodgers’ only decent receiver a season ago was Davante Adams, who caught 83 passes in just 12 games a season after catching 111 in 15 games. So in the deepest WR draft in at least six seasons, the Packers… didn’t draft a WR. And even Love’s supporters would acknowledge that the big-armed Utah State passer is a project, especially since his play slipped from a phenomenal 2018 season to a mediocre 2019 campaign, under new coach Gary Andersen.
At his best, Love is an athletic, pro-style passer who can make it through his progressions and play within structure, which is something Rodgers has really struggled to do the last few seasons. At his worst, Love is a little robotic mentally, not necessarily reacting to what he sees, but what he expected to see. That can lead to terrible decisions. Mix that with a weaker supporting cast, and Love could be DOA in the NFL.
Barring injury to Rodgers, Love isn’t going to play in 2020. He might not play in 2021, especially if Rodgers has a good season. By the time that rolls around, the supporting cast — for better or worse — will look a lot different.
5. Jalen Hurts (Phi, 2nd round, 52nd overall from Oklahoma)
It was arguably the most shocking pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, even more so than the Packers landing Jordan Love. Look, when a team picks a Day 2 QB just one year after giving its franchise QB $100 million guaranteed, it’s going to raise some eyebrows. And breaking down the implications of what the Eagles drafting Hurts are for Carson Wentz would take way more words than we have here.
For fantasy alone, barring a Wentz injury (which does have to factor in here), it truly appears the Eagles are leaning into using Hurts in a Taysom Hill style role. That, frankly, sucks for fantasy, with the exception of one-game DFS slates. If that happens, Wentz will lose pass attempts, Miles Sanders will lose rushes, potentially Jalen Reagor or Zach Ertz will lose targets. But Hurts is a spectacular athlete who, though raw as a passer, has enough skill to contribute in multiple ways. And for what it’s worth, he may have been the highest-character player in the entire draft class, and can relate to Wentz on watching from the sidelines as a backup QB has championship-level success.
If Hurts is ever thrust into starting, his rushing ability will make him an appealing fantasy option. But whether he’ll ever get that opportunity in Philly is the question. Will he even be the top natural backup behind Wentz? Or will he be behind Nate Sudfeld, the way Hill was behind Teddy Bridgewater last year and likely Jameis Winston last year?
6. Jacob Eason (Ind, 4th round, 122nd overall from Washington)
Eason is a strong dynasty fit in Indianapolis, where 38-year-old Philip Rivers is on a one-year deal and is, at best, a bridge QB. A strong-armed pocket passer, Indy couldn’t pass the value on Eason up on Day 3, and it’s hard to blame GM Chris Ballard for strengthening the QB room. However, Rivers has never missed a start, and it seems unlikely that Eason would even be the top backup over the experienced Jacoby Brissett in 2020. It’d be stunning to see him on the field in anything other than mopup work early in his career, but he certainly has skills to work with.
7. Jake Fromm (Buf, 5th round, 167th overall from Georgia)
Two years ago, Fromm was coming off a true freshman season which saw him lead Georgia to a National Championship Game appearance, and it only seemed a matter of time before he was a first-round NFL Draft Pick. But Fromm’s star fizzled since, as the average-armed passer turned into more of a checkdown specialist than anything else, and he might be lucky to turn into a Kirk Cousins type player in the NFL. It’s hard to argue with the fifth round being a good value for a potential long-term backup in Fromm, and he’s eventually going to be an upgrade on Matt Barkley in that role for Buffalo. But if Josh Allen were to miss time, Buffalo would have to completely alter its approach on offense — Allen and Fromm have drastically different skill sets.
8. James Morgan (GB, 4th round, 125th overall from Florida International)
An intriguing prospect with pocket-passer traits, Morgan is coming off a poor senior season at FIU but has the right mentality and good arm strength for the position, though his accuracy and mechanics (which go hand-in-hand) need work. The Jets adding a backup QB prospect is absolutely no surprise at this point — they had awful backup play last year from Luke Falk when Sam Darnold missed time with mono. The strong-armed Morgan, who also has enough athleticism to navigate outside the pocket, will compete with the underwhelming David Fales to be Darnold’s backup. The Jets still don’t have a particularly appealing set of skill players to go around their QBs, however.
9. Jake Luton (Jax, 6th round, 189th overall from Oregon State)
A Greg Cosell favorite as a developmental prospect, Luton has size and throwing ability that makes him reminiscent of a lower-end Jared Goff type of player. Luton showed a great feel for play action at Oregon State, and was one of the more accurate passers available in the draft class. His arm isn’t as strong as Goff’s, but keep in mind that the Jaguars’ current projected starter, Gardner Minshew, isn’t a particularly high-level arm talent either and himself was a sixth-round pick a season ago. It’s a plus that Luton played both under center and in the shotgun with the Beavers. Luton’s tape showed the type of player who excels in things that are popular in the NFL right now, especially quick play-action type passes. He fits the profile of a long-term NFL backup who could develop into a decent starter if the stars align, and it’s not like Minshew is entrenched.
10. Cole McDonald (Ten, 7th round, 224th overall from Hawaii)
McDonald is a spectacular athlete for the QB position, posting a 4.58 40-yard-dash along with excellent vertical and broad jumps at his pro day. But in college, he was a weak-armed, turnover-prone QB and now needs to harness his athleticism to develop into anything more than a low-end backup. But if he were pressed into action, he’d be an interesting fit behind Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee’s run-heavy offense. His best chance to stick would be in the low-end probability of a Taysom Hill type role becoming more common throughout the NFL, as the Eagles’ selection of Jalen Hurts might suggest.
Other QBs of Note
Tommy Stevens (NO, 7th round, 240th overall from Mississippi State) — A relatively unsuccessful college passer who transferred to Starkville from Penn State, Stevens is a good athlete and looks conspicuously like a Taysom Hill understudy.
Ben DiNucci (Dal, 7th round, 231st overall from James Madison) — A Pitt transfer, DiNucci put up big numbers at JMU and was the 2019 CAA Offensive Player of the Year. He’s a good athlete who can make an impact as a runner.
Brian Lewerke (NE, UDFA from Michigan State) — This isn’t the first time Bill Belichick has acquired a UDFA QB from Michigan State. Brian Hoyer is already on New England’s roster, and has been in the league for over a decade after the Pats signed him in 2009.
