Scott Barrett's 2025 Rookie RB Dynasty Rankings

In today’s article, I will be ranking the top 2025 rookie running backs for your dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts.

I will approach this year’s article only slightly differently from past seasons. Rather than rank these prospects entirely by their analytics profile, I am now more heavily weighing both projected draft capital (courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database) and Brett Whitefield’s film score as key variables. However, the bulk of the analysis below will remain very analytics-driven.

For a deeper dive into a player’s film-based evaluation, please consult the (totally free to read) Fantasy Points Prospect Guide.

MACRO LOOK AT THE 2025 RB CLASS

Analytically, this year’s RB class absolutely lives up to the hype. It feels at least twice as deep and twice as strong as expected from an average class.

By contrast, the QB class is (at least supposedly) uninspiring, the WR class is outright underwhelming, and there are likely only two or three difference-making players at TE. As a result, I expect to walk away from most of my rookie drafts with an outsized number of RBs added to my roster. Honestly, the optimal strategy might just be a shotgun-blast approach — the class is that deep, and it feels genuinely difficult to miss.

A breakdown of the RBs I like, love, or think are being overrated follows. Remember: this is essentially an exercise in futility and, possibly, even a waste of your time — at least for now. Landing spot and draft capital (even beyond its raw predictive value) are massively important at this position.

Expect many of my rankings to shift significantly post-draft. But for now, use this article as a way to familiarize yourself with the class — and to start thinking about which RB profiles you might want to bet on once the dust settles.

Tier 1

1. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Height: 5’8.5”, Weight: 211 lbs, Age: 21.4

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): DNQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Top-10 overall pick (RB1)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 1 (RB1)

Jeanty is coming off one of the most impressive seasons in college football history. Through 14 games, he turned 374 carries into 2,601 rushing yards and 29 rushing touchdowns, while adding 23-138-1 as a receiver. His rushing total ranks second all-time in FBS history — trailing only Barry Sanders’ legendary 1988 season (2,628 yards).

Things look even more impressive by all of the advanced metrics. Jeanty forced 163 missed tackles, which is 48 (or +42%) more than any other RB in PFF College history (since 2014). His 1,970 rushing yards after contact is 615 (or +45%) more than any other RB in PFF College history. For perspective, projected Round 2 RB Kaleb Johnson didn’t even have this many missed tackles or yards after contact in his entire career. And this wasn’t just thanks to raw volume, mind you. Among all min. 150-carry RB seasons, that was the 3rd-most yards after contact per attempt (YACO/A) and the 8th-most missed tackles forced per touch (MTF/T) by any FBS RB in PFF College history (since 2014).

And it’s not like this came out of nowhere — my model already viewed Jeanty as the RB1 in the class and a potentially generational prospect heading into the season. As a sophomore in 2023, he led the FBS in yards from scrimmage per game (160.2). And just as he did in 2024, he also cleared 0.40 MTF/T^[1] and 4.50 YACO/A^[2]. But he was significantly more impressive as a receiver in this season (43-578-5), leading all FBS RBs in receiving yards (578). By YPRR, this season ranked behind only 2015 Christian McCaffrey in PFF College history, on a top-5 list that also includes Jahmyr Gibbs, Joe Mixon, and Alvin Kamara.

I could go on and on listing off dank stats.

And I haven’t even mentioned his relative inexperience for the position — Jeanty played five different positions in high school (RB, WR, OLB, S, and EDGE), before transitioning to running back full-time as a senior.

So, let’s focus on his only negative.

In these write-ups, I try to balance a player’s pros and cons — red flags versus green flags, upside versus downside. And with Jeanty, the only actual wart is that you may need to discount his production and efficiency due to his softer competition in the Group of Five.^[3]

Maybe. Because he was still dominant against tougher competition despite an awful supporting cast.^[4] And then, even after competition adjustments, there’s still a very far fall from “best RB season since Barry Sanders” to “easily best RB in the class.”

So, I really don’t care too much about that. And I don’t care that he didn’t test at the Combine or his Pro Day — athleticism is overrated. Jeanty is easily the best RB prospect in this year’s class, head and shoulders above anyone else. And he’s probably the best RB prospect since at least Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley. Yes, even above Bijan Robinson.

Jeanty’s Pass-Catching Upside

Very high. You can’t hold it against him that he only had 138 receiving yards last year when he had over 2,600 rushing yards. Or I suppose you could, but I wouldn’t. Especially not when his pass-catching metrics were all elite in 2023, and he played WR in high school.

TLDR / Conclusion

He profiles as an all-time elite uber-bell-cow and as the no-brainer 1.01 in 2025 rookie drafts. He’s a likely Round 1 start-up pick the second he gets drafted and a probable Round 1 redraft pick if the landing spot isn’t awful.

Tier 2

2. Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina

Height: 6’0”, Weight: 221 lbs, Age: 22.1

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 96.1 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 1 (RB2)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 2 (RB2)

Hampton played sparingly as a 19-year-old freshman before breaking out in 2023. As a sophomore, he emerged as a dominant workhorse for the Drake Maye-led Tar Heels, posting a 253-1,504-15 rushing line (5.94 YPC) and adding 29-222-1 as a receiver over 13 games.

Despite losing his star QB and watching North Carolina fall to a 6–7 record (with their head coach fired before the season’s end), Hampton was even more impressive as a junior. He recorded a 281-1,660-15 line on the ground (5.91 YPC) with 38-373-2 receiving. In one fewer game played, that amounted to 138.3 rushing YPG, which led all Power Conference RBs and ranked as the best season from any Power Conference RB in this year’s class. He also averaged 2.29 YFS per team play in this season, ranking as the 3rd-best single season from this year’s class, behind only 2024 Ashton Jeanty (2.82) and 2024 Cam Skattebo (2.38).

Most other RBs hope to reach 1,000 rushing yards in a single season. Hampton cleared 1,000 rushing yards after contact in both seasons, joining Jonathan Taylor and A.J. Dillon as the only Power Conference RBs to accomplish this feat in PFF College history. And this wasn’t just thanks to raw volume — Hampton averages 4.01 career YACO/A^[5], joining Bijan Robinson and Travis Etienne as the only Power Conference RBs with over 4.00 career YACO/A and 600 or more career receiving yards.

The only genuine concern with Hampton mirrors our one knock on Jeanty: strength of schedule. Despite playing in a Power Conference, Hampton’s strength of schedule wasn’t much tougher — his 2023 season ranked in the 57th percentile (vs. Jeanty’s 44th), and his 2024 season in the 45th (vs. Jeanty’s 38th). Still, the production is too strong for me to be overly concerned.

It can even be argued Hampton’s environment was more difficult. North Carolina’s offense was quite terrible by Power Conference standards — no other Tar Heel is projected to be drafted inside the first five rounds of this year’s Draft. Last year, only Drake Maye and WR Devontez Walker were drafted. Hampton’s offensive line has also been consistently awful, ranking bottom-10 among Power Conference teams in both average yards before contact per attempt and PFF run-blocking grade over the past two seasons. That shows up in the numbers: Hampton was contacted at or before the line of scrimmage on 48% of his career carries (the highest rate in the class), yet still averaged 2.41 YPC on those runs — 4th-best among all RBs in the class.

Ultimately, there’s not much else that really needs to be said. Hampton is a freak athlete (96.1 SPORQ) with a terrific analytics profile that comes without any significant warts. He’s glaringly the 2nd-best RB prospect in this year’s stacked class. He’s just not an all-time great RB prospect like Jeanty.

Pass-Catching Upside

Hampton isn’t going to draw Alvin Kamara comps, but his career-best 38-373-2 receiving line last season is outstanding — borderline historic — for a back as productive as he was on the ground. While he was never elite by YPRR, he pops in several metrics that better account for just how poor the Tar Heels’ offense was. Among all FBS RBs in this class, he ranked 2nd (behind only Cam Skattebo) in reception share (16.5%), receiving yardage market share (12.8%), and receiving yards per team pass attempt (0.95). He also forced a missed tackle on over half of his catches (0.55) — an extremely rare and seemingly predictive feat^[6] — suggesting there may be more untapped upside in his receiving profile at the next level.

TLDR / Conclusion

Hampton profiles as a prototypical bell cow — durable, efficient, and capable of handling a heavy workload. He brings some pass-catching upside and pairs it with elite rushing efficiency and a rare ability to generate tough yards after contact. He’s the clear RB2 in this class and, barring a disastrous landing spot, the likely 1.02 in your rookie drafts.

Tier 3

3. Cam Skattebo, RB, Arizona State

Height: 5’9.5”, Weight: 219 lbs, Age: 23.2

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 42.5 Pro Day SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 3 (RB6)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 3 (RB10)

As a high school junior, Skattebo rushed for 3,550 yards and 42 touchdowns, helping his team win a California Division 5 State Championship (rushing for 393 yards and three touchdowns in that game). For some reason — I can’t qwhite put my finger on why — he was a no-star recruit with zero FBS offers.

As a true freshman at Sacramento State, Skattebo averaged an absurd 9.11 YPC — albeit on 57 carries. He broke out in the following season with 196-1,369-7 rushing (6.98 YPC) and 12-123-1 receiving. My model typically ignores FCS production, but it’s important to note that this was still an incredibly impressive season by FCS standards, averaging 0.42 MTF/T, or the 6th-most by any FCS RB (min. 150 carries) this past half-decade (97th percentile).^[7]

Skattebo then transferred to Arizona State, and immediately dominated the backfield. His 2023 stats don’t jump off the page — 164 carries, 782 yards (4.77 YPC, 8th percentile) — but context matters. ASU went 3–9 and ranked among the bottom 25 offenses nationally. Still, Skattebo stood out in the advanced metrics, averaging 0.36 MTF/T (92nd percentile), the third-best single-season mark among Power Conference RBs in this class.

Arizona State righted the ship in the following season (11-3 record), largely due to Skattebo, who — no exaggeration — recorded one of the most impressive RB seasons in CFB history. On the ground, he recorded a 293-1,711-21 rushing line (5.84 YPC) and added 45-605-3 receiving. Skattebo’s 2,316 yards from scrimmage (YFS) is the 6th-most by any Power Conference RB all-time, behind only seasons from Christian McCaffrey, Ricky Williams, Larry Johnson, Melvin Gordon, and Marcus Allen. The only other RB to ever record 1,600-plus rushing yards and 600-plus receiving yards in a single season was Christian McCaffrey in 2015. If you drop that to 800-plus rushing yards, Saquon Barkley (2017) is the only other RB to join them this past decade.

In 2024, Skattebo totaled the most missed tackles forced of any Power Conference RB in PFF College history (115). His 1,202 rushing yards after contact ranked 10th-most, behind only seasons from Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Chuba Hubbard, Melvin Gordon, Omarion Hampton, Dalvin Cook, and J.K. Dobbins. He led all RBs and ranked 6th among all Power Conference players at all positions in receiving yards after the catch (571). This was, for instance, nearly 200 yards more than supposed YAC-god and projected Round 1 WR Luther Burden (373).

Skattebo’s efficiency was just as otherworldly as his counting metrics. Among all seasons from a Power Conference RB in this year’s insanely stacked class, Skattebo’s 2024 season ranks…. 1st by YFS per team play (2.38)^[8], 2nd by YFS market share (38.5%)^[9], 1st by receiving yardage market share (18.8%)^[10], 1st by receiving yards per team pass attempt (1.58)^[11], and 1st in YPRR (1.92). By YACO/A and MTF/A, he ranked in the 82nd and 93rd percentiles among all Day 1-2 RBs this past decade.

Honestly, the closest comparable season to Skattebo’s 2024 might be Saquon Barkley’s final season at Penn State, except that Skattebo forced over twice as many missed tackles. Or we could just say he compares quite favorably to Jeanty’s record-breaking 2024 season. Except that Skattebo’s strength of schedule (71st percentile) was considerably tougher than that of Jeanty (38th percentile) or even Hampton (45th percentile).

And he capped off this insane season with one of the most impressive performances I’ve ever witnessed live.

The red flags you’ll hear about Skattebo are that he’s old, unathletic, and lacks big-play ability.

Skattebo is old. But for RBs, my model doesn’t penalize for age anywhere near as heavily as it does for WRs — and with us now living in the NIL/transfer portal era, it probably matters even less now. I also wouldn’t call him a true late breakout, or say the age is entirely his fault.^[12]

Skattebo is really more of an average athlete rather than a poor one. He registered a 42.5 Pro Day SPORQ Score based on his Combine plus Pro Day testing. This isn’t really something I tend to care too much about anyway — athleticism is overrated in general, and especially so outside of the polar extremes. But, honestly, he looks almost like an exact clone of David Montgomery, Kareem Hunt, and Mark Ingram, except with better jumps.

Skattebo definitely isn’t fast. And given his lack of top-end speed, he’s by no means a big-play threat (at least as a runner^[13]). But this is more of a “style” stat to me — you can make a living in the NFL as a great singles and doubles hitter^[14] — which also feels overstated^[15], and does little to detract from all else there is to like about Skattebo’s analytics profile.

And I couldn’t find any damning red flags beyond that. So I’m not entirely sure why Skattebo is the consensus projected RB6 in this year’s class — or why he’s similarly overlooked by the fantasy community, despite his strong pass-catching profile. Based on everything I see, he looks (conservatively) like “David Montgomery with significantly more juice in the passing game.” And in an absolute worst-case scenario, he’s still a richer man’s Zack Moss.

Skattebo is a 99th-percentile prospect if we ignore all age, athleticism, and draft capital-related concerns. Those are important variables, of course, and are still weak points to Skattebo’s analytics profile, even if overstated. So, he’s not actually a 99th-percentile prospect… but he’s still absolutely one of “my guys” in this year’s rookie drafts.

Pass-Catching Upside

Very high.^[16]

TLDR / Conclusion

The stats are just too dank. If Skattebo is my new “Elijah Moore of RBs,” so be it.

4. TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State

Height: 5’10”, Weight: 202 lbs, Age: 22.5

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 79.9 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 2 (RB3)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 3 (RB6)

Henderson was immediately dominant as an 18-year-old true freshman, recording an 183-1248-15 rushing line (6.82 YPC) along with 27-312-4 receiving. This was objectively the best season of Henderson’s career, but also one of the most impressive seasons from any RB in this year’s class.

Since 2000, there are only three instances of a Power Conference freshman averaging >7.0 YFS per touch with over 1,500 YFS — 2014 Nick Chubb, 2017 J.K. Dobbins, and 2021 TreVeyon Henderson.

Henderson’s sophomore season was derailed by injury, breaking a bone in his foot during the third game of the season.^[17] Coming off of offseason foot surgery as a junior, Henderson averaged a career-high 17.5 touches per game with an impressive 5.94 YPC, but missed three games with another undisclosed injury.

Heading into his senior year, the team added proj. Round 2 RB Quinshon Judkins via the transfer portal^[18]. Judkins out-touched Henderson 216 to 171, but Henderson smoked him in efficiency, averaging 7.06 YPC to Judkins’ 5.46. Better yet, Henderson averaged an insane 7.60 YFS per touch, the most of any Power Conference RB (min. 135 carries) in four years.

Ohio State — in their National Championship-winning season — seemingly emulated the Detroit Lions with their backfield split. Henderson’s season-high in carries was just 12 — which came in the title game against Notre Dame — while Judkins cleared that mark seven times. Like with the Gibbs/Montgomery split, Judkins was given more volume and was asked to get the hard yards, while Henderson was so freakishly efficient that you were left wondering why so many touches went to anyone else.

And that’s really the crux of the evaluation with Henderson. If he was so clearly better on a per-touch basis, why did the staff lean so heavily on Judkins? Was it due to durability concerns after Henderson missed multiple games in back-to-back seasons? Was it his size — 19th-percentile weight, 22nd-percentile BMI^[19] — and questions about whether he could remain efficient under a larger workload? Was it a lack of trust in his ability to grind out the tough yards?^[20] Put simply: does Henderson have real bell cow potential at the next level, or is he best used as a complementary back? His best season came as a freshman, when he handled a career-high 50% of the backfield’s carries — but he was at his most efficient as a senior, when that dropped to just 37%.

Minus this concern, there’s so much to like. He ranks 2nd-best in this year’s stacked class by both career YPC (6.37) and career YPT (9.65). He has zero career fumbles, and he’s probably the best pass-blocker in the class.

So we’re just left with this lingering volume/durability concern. But Brett Whitefield added one courtesy of the Fantasy Points Prospect Guide questioning his toughness and ultimately comparing him to D’Andre Swift in the pejorative sense. And you do start to see that concern show up in the data. While Henderson still ranked top-6 in the class in YPC when first contact was initiated at or behind the line of scrimmage — and also against stacked boxes — his career missed tackles forced per touch (MTF/T) rate was troubling, landing in just the 27th percentile. Since the 2018 NFL Draft, only three drafted RBs with >6.25 career YPC had a worse MTF/T than Henderson: Damien Harris, Ty Johnson, and D’Andre Swift. (It’s worth noting that PFF has become considerably more generous in awarding missed tackles post-2019.) Since the 2021 NFL Draft (without any arbitrary YPC threshold), the only RB with a worse career MTF/T who was drafted in Rounds 1-3 was Tyrion Davis-Price.

So, the D’Andre Swift comp makes some sense — and it does raise concerns about Henderson’s bell cow potential. But within his profile, I also see shades of Dalvin Cook^[21], and De’Von Achane — another undersized back who has handled far more volume than my model ever expected. Here’s a good stat tying all four of these names together: Henderson (7.53), Achane (7.35), Cook (7.27), and Swift (7.25) are four of just seven RBs over the past decade to average at least 7.25 career YPC on outside runs — a mark that highlights both explosiveness and vision in space.

Ultimately, D’Andre Swift as a downside comp is still pretty great for a prospect. My model tends to dock RBs who never truly dominated their backfield in touches, and I do have some level of concern regarding Henderson’s size, durability, and overall toughness. But the league seems to be shifting more towards RBs like Henderson — valuing hyper-efficiency and big-play ability over traditional workhorse traits. Just last season, Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane, Bucky Irving, and James Cook all handled 225+ touches despite weighing less than Henderson.

Pass-Catching Upside

Henderson’s pass-catching numbers won’t blow you away, but he ranks 2nd-best in the class by career YPT (9.65). And he’s probably the best pass-blocking RB in the class, which should keep him on the field for third-downs. He’s not Jahmyr Gibbs, but his pass-catching upside is probably the best of any RB that has not already been discussed.

TLDR / Conclusion

TreVeyon Henderson burst onto the scene with one of the best freshman seasons in recent memory and left college as nothing less than the 2nd-most efficient RB on a per-carry (6.37), per-target (9.65), or per-touch basis (6.92). We have some lingering concerns over his bell cow-potential, but it feels a little nitpicky relative to everything else. And perhaps especially so in today’s NFL meta.

Tier 4

5. R.J. Harvey, RB, UCF

Height: 5’8”, Weight: 205 lbs, Age: 24.2

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 93.2 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 4 (RB9)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 2 (RB3)

R.J. Harvey is similar to Cam Skattebo in that his advanced age makes him a tricky evaluation. If he were 21 years old, my model would argue he’s the 3rd-best RB in this year’s class. Now, it’s not necessarily Harvey’s fault that he’ll be 24 years old on draft day^[22] — he was a QB throughout high school and his freshman season, and then an ACL injury cost him another year after he converted to RB — but it muddies the evaluation because we know age is a significant competitive advantage.

Luckily, age-adjusted metrics — although still important — matter much less at the RB position than for WRs. And again, minus this wart, Harvey otherwise looks like an elite prospect.

In his first-ever season playing the position (2022), Harvey fell three rushing yards shy of RB1 Isaiah Bowser (799 vs. 796) but on a staggering 87 fewer carries (205 vs. 118). His hyper-efficiency was rewarded with bell cow usage over the next two seasons, during which he dramatically reshaped UCF’s offense. He led the Power Conference in rushing touchdowns over this span (38, +5 more than next-closest), and he became the first UFC RB to clear 1,100 YFS in over a decade. And he didn’t just eclipse that mark — he obliterated it, with 1,654 YFS in 2023 and 1,844 in 2024.

By career YFS per touch (7.05), Harvey ranks 2nd-best since the famed 2017 RB draft class (min. 350 touches) — tied with Dalvin Cook and trailing only Travis Etienne (7.75). He leads this year’s class in career YPC and ranks 9th-best within that same historical sample. By career yards per reception, he ranks 6th, alongside an elite group of names.^[23] And by career missed tackles forced per touch — among all RBs this past decade to play exclusively in Power Conferences (min. 425 carries) — Harvey ranks 4th (0.33), behind only Bijan Robinson (0.39), Bucky Irving (0.36), and David Montgomery (0.35).

One potential concern is that Harvey’s career average yards after contact per attempt was shockingly low (11th-best in the class) relative to his class-best career YPC. He led the class in career yards before contact per attempt (2.91), which also ranked 6th-most by any RB this past decade. Although Christian McCaffrey holds the PFF College-era record in this metric (3.30) and Ezekiel Elliott was also ahead of him on this list, the top 25 is mainly littered with busts — raising questions about whether Harvey’s production was inflated by scheme, usage, or offensive line play. Digging deeper, I’m inclined to believe this is simply how Harvey wins.^[24]

All other UCF RBs over the past three seasons averaged just 2.20 yards before contact — much closer to the FBS average of 2.03 — suggesting his numbers weren’t system-driven. So, I think this is just how he wins and is a function of his class-best career explosive run rate (21%). He didn’t face an overwhelmingly high number of light fronts throughout his career (75%, 16th-most in the class). Harvey was equally strong against both stacked boxes (5.28 YPC, 2nd-best in the class) and light fronts (7.07 YPC, best in the class), also leading the class in career box-adjusted YPC.^[25] And he’s one of only six RBs this past decade to average >6.5 YPC on both inside and outside runs — with a near-even split in usage — underscoring the versatility and consistency in his game.

With Harvey, there are some age-related concerns, and possibly size-related ones — his 205-pound frame places him in the 24th percentile by weight. But at 5’8”, his BMI is strong (73rd percentile), and he registered as a freak athlete by SPORQ (93.2). Ultimately, though, the stats are just too dank. Regardless of landing spot, it’s hard to imagine Harvey not ending up as one of “my guys.”

Pass-Catching Upside

While Harvey’s receiving numbers weren’t eye-popping, my model sees significantly more pass-catching upside than he’s been given credit for — even if his immediate three-down potential is questionable (he graded as one of the worst pass-blockers in the class, per PFF). He recorded 200-plus receiving yards in each of his last three seasons, and his 1.75 YPRR in 2023 and 11.0% yardage market share in 2024 rank as the 3rd- and 4th-best single-season marks among all Power Conference RBs in this class. And among all RBs in this year’s class with at least 1,500 career rushing yards, Harvey ranks 4th-best in career YPRR (1.41), behind only Cam Skattebo, Ashton Jeanty, and Donovan Edwards.

TLDR / Conclusion

I was worried I might be on an island here, but I was encouraged to see Brett Whitefield’s film score (RB3) closely align with what the stats showed on Harvey. Whitefield saw shades of Maurice Jones-Drew, while Cody Carpentier offered Devonta Freeman as a downside comp — and if either is even close to accurate, Harvey might be too low at RB5, even if that ranking comes as a shock to the dynasty community. That said, he’s in an extremely tight tier with Kaleb Johnson and Bhayshul Tuten. Both are expected to be drafted ahead of him in April, and if that happens, Harvey will likely slide just behind them in my post-draft rankings — but still well within the same tier.

6. Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa

Height: 6’1”, Weight: 224 lbs, Age: 21.7

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 60.1 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 2 (RB5)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 3 (RB7)

My model views Johnson as a one-year wonder. Fortunately, that isn’t nearly as concerning for RBs as it is for WRs. And even if he was just a one-year wonder, it was an insanely wonderful year.

Given the context, I also think my model is “unfair” to Johnson.

Johnson broke Iowa’s freshman record in rushing yards (779) and smoked all other Iowa RBs in efficiency (5.15 YPC vs. 3.41). He struggled mightily in the following season (2023), but dealt with an ankle injury for the entirety of the season.^[26]

In 2024, he gained 1,725 YFS and scored 23 total touchdowns. This ranked 5th- and 4th-best in the class. Better yet, this was +79% more YFS than Iowa’s RB1 average over the past five years^[27] and 3.6X as much as the next-closest player on the team. By both YFS market share (40.3%) and touchdown market share (57.5%), this was the best season from any Power Conference RB since 2021. If we account for the one game he missed, he jumps to best since 2016 (43.4%^[28], 58.9%). And if you still account for that one game, his 2.44 YFS per team play would rank best by any Power Conference RB over the last three seasons.

Ultimately, my model liked Johnson far more than I expected, ranking him as my RB4 before he lost ground post-Combine (60.1 SPORQ) and after incorporating Brett Whitefield’s film score (RB7) into the model. Again, I don’t think the “one-year wonder” label is fair — he’s cleared a 75th-percentile score by missed tackles forced per touch in his only two healthy seasons. And his 2024 season wasn’t just great; it was historically great — at least when you factor in the smoldering trash heap that is/was the Iowa offense^[29]. Or, how tough it is for an RB to be the only good player on his team; Johnson faced stacked boxes at an ungodly rate — over 50% of his career runs came with 8 or more defenders in the box (50.4%), while no other RB from this year’s class (min. 250 career runs) was over 39%.

But Johnson is a particularly tough prospect to rank pre-Draft without knowing his landing spot. One concern I have is that he seems to profile as almost a caricature of a back who’s slow out of the gates but possesses tremendous build-up speed. That shows up in the testing: he reached 22.2 mph on his 4.57-second 40-yard dash (61st percentile for his size), but his 1.62-second 10-yard split was the worst of any RB in the last four years. You see that dynamic reflected in his production as well. Last season, he averaged just 1.95 YPC when first contact came at or behind the line of scrimmage (67th percentile), but an absurd 10.2 YPC on all other runs (96th percentile). So, Johnson’s landing spot will be critical. Every RB benefits from a good offensive line, but it may be essential for Johnson, who clearly thrives when given space to operate.

Johnson is also an archetypal boom-or-bust runner — 20.5% of his career carries failed to gain positive yardage (2nd-most in the class), but only Ashton Jeanty (26) had more runs gaining 20-plus yards (23) than Johnson last year. Fittingly, “Johnson the Prospect” profiles a bit like “Johnson the Runner”: boom-or-bust, or high-risk/high-reward.

Pass-Catching Upside

Johnson averaged just 15.7 receiving YPG last year — his only season above 2.5. Adjusting for Iowa’s anemic passing attack helps only a little bit; he ranked 8th in the class in receiving yards per team pass attempt. But realistically, he profiles as a fairly one-dimensional early-down runner with limited value in the passing game.

TLDR / Conclusion

The upside with Johnson is obvious — his 2024 numbers were elite, especially considering how bad Iowa’s offense was. But there are clear concerns: minimal pass-catching value, slow acceleration, and a boom-or-bust running style that may only work behind a strong offensive line. As mentioned earlier, he’s a classic high-risk, high-reward prospect — which just so happens to be the type of player I usually gravitate toward. (Because in fantasy, the upside is more valuable than the downside is detrimental.) Johnson tentatively checks in as my RB6, but he’s more likely to move based on landing spot than any other RB we’ve discussed.

7. Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Virginia Tech

Height: 5’9.5”, Weight: 206 lbs, Age: 22.2

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 99.5 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 4 (RB11)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 3 (RB9)

Tuten is pretty similar to RJ Harvey — they’re both older prospects with freakish athleticism and insanely dank stats.^[30]

Tuten leads all Power Conference RBs from this year’s class in two of my favorite metrics — career yards after contact per attempt (4.08) and career missed tackles forced per touch (0.35). Both marks rank top-12 of any Power Conference RB (min. 350 career touches) this past decade and 95th percentile or better in each category. The only other Power Conference RBs this past decade with 95th percentile or better marks in both categories are Bijan Robinson, Travis Etienne, Kenneth Walker, and Javonte Williams.

Note: One could quibble with my use of the word “career” here, as I’m excluding all of his production coming at FCS North Carolina A&T. Perhaps this isn’t entirely fair, as many RBs would see their career metrics improve if excluding their first two seasons of college football.

On top of his absurd efficiency, Tuten looks like one of the best athletes we’ve ever seen play the position. Since 2000 and of 682 qualifiers, only three RBs have ever recorded a better SPORQ Score at the Combine — Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Stewart, and A.J. Dillon.

With Tuten, the primary concern is his age. On a more nitpicky level, he’s slightly underweight at 206 pounds (26th percentile), though his BMI is fine (45th percentile). Still, when you pair that with his boom-or-bust running style, it’s fair to wonder if NFL teams will view him more as a change-of-pace option than a true lead back. I tried hard to find a few more warts beyond that — probably too hard, since I wrote this section back when his projected draft capital was three rounds lower. That said, here’s what I came up with, ranked in ascending order of importance:

1) Unpersuasive: Tuten’s production these last two seasons (1,171 YFS per season) wasn’t dramatically better than Virginia Tech’s RB1 in 2020 (Khalil Herbert, 1361 YFS) or 2021 (Raheem Blackshear, 1,014 YFS). But my excuse for that is that, according to PFF grading, Hokie run-blocking was much better for Herbert^[31] or Blackshear in these seasons (both ranking top-12 in the Power 5) than for Tuten these last two years (bottom-12). And so this may actually be a perk and not a wart. Tuten’s offensive line was objectively horrible — he was contacted at or before the line of scrimmage on a class-high 50% of his runs, but when first contact came after the line of scrimmage, he averaged an obscene 9.29 YPC (best of any projected non-UDFA in this year’s class).

2) Not All That Important: Tuten fumbled nine times over the last two seasons (2nd-most by any FBS RB). It’s worth pointing out, but my model doesn’t seem to think it’s all that important or predictive^[32], or at least nowhere near as important as some of the other metrics we highlighted earlier. Similarly, my model doesn’t care all that much about Tuten’s impressive return resume^[33], although it probably does speak to him being a dynamic play-maker with the ball in his hands.

3) Not Great: Much like Kaleb Johnson in college or Kenneth Walker through his first two NFL seasons, Tuten is an extremely boom-or-bust runner with a poor success rate. Tuten ranks 3rd-best in this year’s class by career explosive run rate, but a class-high 21.8% of his carries failed to gain positive yardage. He was also awful in short-yardage situations, converting just 56.5% of his short-yardage carries into first downs or touchdowns last year (worst in the class). Given his suboptimal size, this concern feels much more significant for Tuten than it did for Johnson. One can easily see an NFL team viewing Tuten as a prototypical change-of-pace back (a la Jaylen Warren or Tyjae Spears), unable to get the hard yards and too inconsistent for steady usage but good for 8-12 carries per game with an uniquely high percentage chance of turning one of those carries into a long run.

Theo Gremminger has been rolling with “peak C.J. Spiller” as his comp for Tuten — and I like that a lot, as long as we acknowledge that Spiller would have been a far more effective player in today’s NFL. Teams are now more willing to overlook size concerns in favor of explosive playmaking ability. Spiller weighed just 196 pounds — a flyweight for his era — yet that’s still heavier than De’Von Achane, Bucky Irving, and Kyren Williams, and only three pounds lighter than Jahmyr Gibbs and James Cook. My personal upside comp would be “90% Jahmyr Gibbs,” but my downside comps would make you wince.

Pass-Catching Upside

Tuten cleared 200 receiving yards in 2023, but he recorded just 81 receiving yards on 23 catches last season, resulting in a laughable and pathetic 3.5 YPR average (0.3rd percentile historically). His YPRR at Virginia Tech (0.73) falls squarely into “death knell” territory, but it’s worth noting he posted an elite 2.15 YPRR at North Carolina A&T — elite even by FCS standards. So yeah, this one’s tricky. I’m definitely leaning toward him being fairly limited as a pass-catcher, but I’m not fully closing the door, either.

TLDR / Conclusion

Tuten is one of the best athletes we’ve ever seen at the position, with historically elite marks in two of the most predictive metrics that exist at the RB position (YACO/A and MTF/T). That alone is enough for me to flagplant him as one of “my guys” in this year’s class, regardless of how damning some of the red flags may be. Sure, he’s slightly undersized, old, inconsistent as a runner, and likely a non-factor in the passing game. But he’s a classic boom-or-bust prospect, and those are the types I tend to gravitate toward, especially when the ceiling is this high. He’s already neck-and-neck with Harvey and Johnson as my tentative RB4 — and if he lands somewhere like San Francisco on Day 2 (probably his most likely landing spot)… good luck keeping me flaccid restrained.

Tier 5

8. Quinshon Judkins, RB, Ohio State

Height: 5’11.5”, Weight: 221 lbs, Age: 21.5

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 91.0 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 2 (RB4)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 2 (RB4)

Judkins immediately burst onto the scene as an 18-year-old true freshman for Ole Miss, finishing with a 274-1567-16 rushing line (5.72 YPC) plus 15-132-1 receiving. In case it’s not immediately obvious, this was an all-time great season — Judkins gained the 2nd-most rushing yards by a freshman in SEC history, behind only 1980 Herschel Walker (1,616).

The counting stats were still there for Judkins in the following season (1,307 YFS, 17 total touchdowns), but the efficiency was awful. He averaged just 4.27 YPC, giving him the 3rd-worst YPC of any 1,000-yard rusher this past decade.

In the following season, Judkins transferred to Ohio State. He led the team in rushing yards (ahead of proj. Round 2 RB TreVeyon Henderson) and helped lead the Buckeyes to a National Championship. He dominated the backfield in raw volume, outtouching Henderson 216 to 171.

All this sounds great, but things become more disturbing upon a deeper investigation and a closer look into Judkins’ efficiency metrics. My model is somewhat wary of Lane Kiffin RBs^[34], and you do see the bear out in the data. Judkins was historically productive in his freshman campaign, but Round 6 RB Zach Evans also had over 1,000 YFS in this season while averaging an 6.50 YPC to Judkins’ 5.72.

In the following season, Judkins averaged just 4.27 YPC despite seeing a light front on a class-high 86% of his carries. This resulted in the 18th-worst season by box-adjusted YPC of any min. 150-carry RB this past decade. No RB in the bottom 30 has ever gained a single rushing yard at the NFL level. Again, his RB2 (proj. UDFA Ulysses Bentley IV) was significantly more efficient, averaging 5.68 YPC.

And then at Ohio State, Henderson smoked Judkins in efficiency, averaging 7.06 YPC to Judkins’ 5.46. Against tougher competition, things look even bleaker. Against Power Conference opponents, Judkins averaged a pathetic 4.61 YPC (45th of 48-qualifying RBs) to Henderson’s 6.64 (2nd-best).

To put it another way, Judkins led his team in rushing yards in every year of his career but was always below average (for that backfield) in efficiency. Across all three seasons, he’s been nearly a full YPC less efficient than his backfield mates, averaging 5.12 YPC to their 5.98 YPC.

YPC isn’t a great stat^[35], of course, but this holds true when looking at any of our favorites. Judkins looks like a total outlier for the draft capital he’s supposed to get in April by just about any efficiency metric you look at.

But remember, Judkins’ raw counting metrics are all great. He was ridiculously productive. And my model places a premium RBs who have proven capable of withstanding a robust (bell cow-like or workhorse-like) workload at the college level, which Judkins clearly showed.^[36]

There’s really no reference point or comparison for how productive Judkins was and how inefficient he’s been. The only Power Conference RBs to be drafted this past decade to average over 100.0 YFS per game throughout their career with a worse career YFS per touch are Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley.

Among all projected Round 1-4 RB in this year’s class, Judkins ranks worst by…. Career YACO/A^[37], career MTF/A^[38], career MTF/T^[39], and career box-adjusted YPC^[40]. By career YPRR, he ranks 3rd-worst.

Whereas Henderson was freakishly hyper-efficient with volume concerns, Judkins was always a workhorse — but bizarrely inefficient. That’s not a total death knell (my model still values counting stats), but it’s definitely worrisome. I struggled to find a NFL comp that wouldn’t make you immediately shit your pants. My initial favorite was “poor man’s Najee Harris,” which was later echoed (in a way) by SullyFootball based on film — “He looks like a 27-year-old who has already spent five years in Pittsburgh.” Both were incredibly productive with underwhelming efficiency metrics. That said, when stacking them up next to each other, it’s clear Judkins would have to be a very poor man’s Najee Harris, as Harris still fared significantly better in all key metrics — by YACO/A (56th vs. 20th percentile), by MTF/T (77th vs. 57th percentile), by breakaway percentage (41st vs. 28th percentile), by YPRR (55th vs. 18th percentile).

Judkins is a freak athlete (91.0 SPORQ) in a way Harris almost certainly isn’t (N/A SPORQ). But, I don’t know… This is really rough. If I’m being honest, I think I just sort of hate him.

Pass-Catching Upside

In addition to rushing efficiency concerns, Judkins is also a non-factor in the passing game. Judkins has career highs of just 22 catches and 161 receiving yards, with a career average of just 0.76 career YPRR. For perspective, since the 2020 NFL Draft, only one RB with a worse career YPRR has ever reached 250 receiving yards in a single NFL season (Kenneth Walker).

TLDR / Conclusion

Judkins is definitively not one of “my guys,” and his ranking here is largely driven by projected draft capital (Round 2, RB4) and Brett Whitefield’s film score (RB4). If he does go that high, I’ll like him more than this write-up suggests — mainly because draft capital matters so much (even beyond its role as a proxy for talent), and because his workhorse archetype implies he’ll see more volume than almost any RB drafted after him.

Tier 6

9. Ollie Gordon, RB, Oklahoma State

Height: 6’1.5”, Weight: 226 lbs, Age: 21.3

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 47.6 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 4 (RB13)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 3 (RB8)

To me, Ollie Gordon (6’1.5”, 226 lbs, 47.6 SPORQ) looks almost identical to Chuba Hubbard (6’0”, 210 lbs, 45.5 SPORQ). Both played at Oklahoma State. Both offer ideal workhorse size with sub-mediocre athleticism. Both were freakishly productive as sophomores^[41] before falling off of a cliff as juniors.

Legitimately, Gordon’s 2023 season was one of the best single-season performances from any RB in the class, compiling a 285-1,732-21 line as a runner with 39-330-1 receiving. Gordon went on a mid-season tear, where he eclipsed 280 YFS in three consecutive games and hit 100 rushing yards in 8 of 9 games (averaging 25-163-2 on the ground over this stretch). He became the first Oklahoma State player since Barry Sanders to lead the nation in rushing yards and the first RB since 2020 to clear 2,000 YFS in a season.^[42]

As good as the counting stats were, he was closer to average in all key efficiency metrics — 62nd percentile in yards after contact per attempt, 51st percentile in missed tackles forced per touch. And then things bottomed out in 2024. He totaled nearly half as many YFS, and although volume also declined as the team shifted to more of a pass-heavy approach^[43], Gordon was even less efficient, ranking in the 24th percentile by YFS per touch, the 29th percentile by YACO/A, and the 39th percentile by MTF/T. Over the last six years, we’ve only seen five RBs get drafted who ranked below the 40th percentile in each of these metrics in their final collegiate season: Blake Corum (who was coming off of a devastating injury), Tyrion Davis-Price, Hassan Haskins, Will Shipley, and Joshua Kelley.

To add some more context, Oklahoma State was downright awful last year, losing its final nine games in a row, including a humiliating 52-0 shutout against Colorado^[44], the largest margin of defeat in Mike Gundy’s 20-year tenure as HC. As Brett Whitefield alluded to in the Fantasy Points Prospect Guide, Gordon is an old-school throwback RB in the Najee Harris and Brian Robinson mold. So, perhaps we should expect extreme gamescript sensitivity like we’ve seen from them in the NFL, and more glaringly from Derrick Henry. Indeed, Gordon had over twice as many rushing YPG in wins (135.1) than losses (65.8) over the last two years.

Even if we decided to be this generous, he still falls into a similar category as Quinshon Judkins — strong raw production, but with some real efficiency concerns. Gordon averaged just 0.24 missed tackles forced per attempt in his best season. Among all Day 1-2 RBs drafted since 2020, only Tyrion Davis-Price had a worse peak mark.

Pass-Catching Upside

Gordon had 39 receptions and 330 receiving yards in his best season — among the best marks in this year’s class and nearly Oklahoma State records for a RB (only Joseph Randle beat him out in receptions and receiving yards). But he’s also among the least efficient RBs in this class on a career per-target, per-catch, or per-route basis. So, once again, maybe he profiles similarly to Chuba Hubbard as a pass-catcher, who ranked 12th among RBs in targets last year (52) but just 41st in receiving yards (171).

TLDR / Conclusion

He’s Chuba Hubbard.

10. Damien Martinez, RB, Miami (FL)

Height: 5’11.5”, Weight: 217 lbs, Age: 21.2

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 75.4 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 4 (RB10)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 2 (RB5)

As an 18-year-old true freshman at Oregon State, Martinez was an immediate starter0, averaging 6.1 YPC vs. RB2 Deshaun Fenwick’s 4.9. He took on more volume in his sophomore year, handling 60% of the backfield’s carries (his only season above 45%), and maintained the same hyper-efficiency (6.1 YPC). He then transferred to Miami, where although he didn’t dominate the backfield in volume, he was significantly more efficient than RB2 Mark Fletcher Jr. (6.3 YPC vs. 5.4). It’s also worth noting that this was a loaded backfield — Fletcher is our Devy RB32, and Devy RB4 Jordan Lyle was also on the roster — making Martinez’s lack of a true workhorse workload fairly excusable.

As you might surmise from a player who eclipsed 6.0 YPC in three straight seasons with two different teams, Martinez’s career rushing metrics are among the best in this class. He ranks 5th-best in the class by career YPC (6.15)^[45] and career box-adjusted YPC, 5th-best in career YACO/A (3.91), and 8th-best in career MTF/A (0.27). (Note: He’s behind all Jarquez Hunter in each of these stats.)

Martinez seemed to get better each year — and my model loves that kind of steady, linear growth. By YACO/A, he averaged 3.48 in 2022 (41st percentile), 3.82 in 2023 (70th), and then 4.46 in 2024 (96th). Outside of Ashton Jeanty — who posted two seasons above 4.50 — Martinez’s 2024 season ranks as the best single-season mark in this year’s class.

This is all very impressive, but my model ultimately didn’t like him as much as Brett Whitefield did on tape (RB5). Although we already made some excuses for this, my model doesn’t like his lack of raw counting stats and the fact that he never dominated a backfield — his career-best 1.59 YFS per team play ranks behind 18 other RBs in this year’s class. Martinez racked up a lot of yards after contact but may still have benefited from elite offensive line play throughout his career.^[46] Most damningly, he’s probably a non-factor in the passing game, at least early in his NFL career.

This comp doesn’t really work from a film perspective, but analytically, Martinez looks a lot like Jarquez Hunter to me. Both crushed the advanced metrics — though Hunter edged him out in nearly every category, often by just a single spot. My model questions the workhorse upside for both, but unlike Hunter, film experts consistently cite that as one of Martinez’s strengths. His size and bruising play style certainly support that projection. So while he’s a slightly poorer man’s Hunter by the numbers, he ultimately ranks higher due to better projected draft capital and a stronger film grade.

Pass-Catching Upside

24 different RBs from this year’s class average more career receptions per game than Martinez’s 0.84. However, within this tiny sample (32 career receptions), Martinez actually leads the class in career yards per reception (12.2). Unfortunately, this stat is nowhere near as predictive as everything else. For instance, Martinez averages just 0.73 YPRR in his career. Kenneth Walker is the only RB since the 2020 NFL Draft to reach even 250 receiving yards in a single NFL season despite having an NCAA career YPRR below 0.75.

TLDR / Conclusion

Martinez profiles as a good-to-great runner, but offers little to no upside as a pass-catcher. And unless you’re Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, or Saquon Barkley-level elite on the ground, it’s tough to be a true fantasy difference-maker with that limitation (in a world where targets are worth 2.6X as much as a carry in PPR leagues). While I have some reservations about the ceiling, he’s still a player I like and would like to add to my team after the top 7-8 RBs are off the board.

11. Jarquez Hunter, RB, Auburn

Height: 5’9.5”, Weight: 204 lbs, Age: 22.3

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 69.4 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 5 (RB17)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 4 (RB13)

Hunter immediately burst onto the scene as an 18-year-old true freshman, starting off his career at Auburn with back-to-back 100-yard games (on single-digit carries). But he mostly played second fiddle to RB Tank Bigsby^[47] throughout his first two seasons. Or, at least, that was true by volume (394 touches vs. Hunter's 222) but not by efficiency — Hunter was +26% more efficient by YPC, averaging 6.53 YPC to Bigsby’s 5.17. Remember, Bigsby was one of the most efficient runners in the NFL last year, lapping Travis Etienne and leading all (min. 125 carries) RBs in yards after contact per attempt (3.30).

Over the next two seasons, Hunter was gradually entrusted with more volume, earning 51% and then — in 2024 — 69% of the team’s backfield carries.^[48] My model loved seeing steady year-over-year growth in productivity (50.3 YFS/G → 74.3 → 85.6 → 113.0), and it was encouraging to see him remain hyper-efficient even with a workhorse role in 2024, when he led the SEC with 6.42 YPC.^[49]

That would have been my biggest question with Hunter heading into the year — does he have workhorse potential at the next level, and can he maintain his hyper-efficiency with more work? He seemed to answer that question in 2024. And so now, all we’re left with is Hunter being one of the most efficient RBs in this year’s stacked class. He ranks 2nd-best in career explosive run rate, 4th-best in career YPC, 4th-best in career box-adjusted YPC, 4th-best in career yards after contact per attempt, and 5th-best in career missed tackles forced per touch. (Despite worse run blocking, he’s ahead of Damien Martinez in all of these metrics.)

Hunter is a solidly above-average athlete (69.4 SPORQ) with legit breakaway speed (4.44 forty-yard dash), but his 22nd percentile playing weight^[50] and 36th percentile BMI reintroduce concerns about his workhorse potential at the next level. Still, the league seems to be shifting increasingly in that direction — Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane, Bucky Irving, and James Cook all handled 225-plus touches last year despite weighing less than Hunter. Even in a more limited role, he projects as a high-end RB2 or elite change-of-pace option with outstanding explosive-play ability.

Pass-Catching Upside

Hunter has career highs of just 21 (2024) and 224 (2022) receiving yards. He’s below average in this year’s class by per-route, per-target, or per-catch efficiency as well. It’s safe to say this is not one of the strong suits of his game.

TLDR / Conclusion

Even if it goes against my better judgment, Hunter is one of my favorite RBs in this year’s class. I have plenty of concerns, and his projected draft capital isn’t doing him any favors. But his rushing efficiency metrics are simply too compelling to rank him any lower.

12. D.J. Giddens, RB, Kansas State

Height: 6’0.5”, Weight: 212 lbs, Age: 21.7

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 94.6 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 3 (RB8)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 4 (RB11)

Giddens played behind Deuce Vaughn as a 19-year-old true freshman but was more efficient (5.8 YPC vs. 5.3) with half as many total touchdowns (6 vs. 12) on nearly a quarter of as many touches (97 vs. 335). With Vaughn on the Dallas Cowboys in 2023, Giddens broke out as a sophomore and then improved as a junior, last year recording 1,606 YFS (9th-most in the class) on 226 touches, good for 7.1 YFS per touch^[51]. He exceeded 1,250 rushing yards and 250 receiving yards in back-to-back seasons — a feat matched by only five other Power Conference RBs over the past decade: Deuce Vaughn, Najee Harris, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Phillip Lindsay.

I have some serious reservations about how much of Giddens’ production and non-charted efficiency metrics were scheme- or context-driven, given Deuce Vaughn’s better and nearly historically great marks in the same offense — but I’ll save that overly-long diatribe for the footnotes.^[52]

Beyond that, Giddens’ profile is strong — good but unspectacular. Based on his career MTF/T, career YACO/A, and career YPRR, he ranks inside the top-10 (although on the low-end) of this year’s class and around the Day 1-2 RB average in all key metrics. He does rank 6th-best in career box-adjusted YPC, but I (rightfully or wrongfully) see Vaughn casting a shadow over all of Giddens’ non-charted metrics. Although his career metrics are good across the board, he never had a true standout season by any metric either.^[53] That may support what Brett Whitefield noted in his Prospect Guide — that Giddens is an NFL-ready, high-floor prospect, but one without much of a ceiling.

Some may try to counter that by pointing to his athleticism — he ranks 3rd-best in this class by SPORQ (94.6). But to then argue back against this, he’s 212 pounds. That’s a good weight in a vacuum, but at 6’0.5”, his BMI is in the 11th percentile historically. Plus, only 44.8% of his career carries have come on inside runs — 3rd-lowest in the class — which, in combination with his frame, suggests he may project more as a change-of-pace option than a full-time bell cow at the next level.

Ultimately, I struggled to get a good read on Giddens, and am mostly deferring to his projected draft capital (RB8) and film score (RB11) for my final ranking. But if I’m being totally honest, I’m probably not too big of a fan. And, given the apparent lack of upside, he’s also not someone I’m overly worried about missing out on.

Pass-Catching Upside

Giddens set career highs with 29 receptions and 323 receiving yards in 2023 — solid, but still well behind Deuce Vaughn, who topped 375 receiving yards in each of his three seasons at Kansas State. If our Vaughn-related concerns are overstated, Giddens is slightly better than adequate as a pass-catcher, ranking 7th-best in the class by career YPRR (1.24). But then again, he also led all FBS RBs in drops last year (5), averaging 1 drop every 6.8 targets.

TLDR / Conclusion

For whatever reason, Giddens was one of the trickiest RB prospects for me to rank in this class — even setting aside the Deuce Vaughn context, which I do find at least somewhat concerning. I’m mostly deferring to projected draft capital and his film score for this ranking, but if I’m being honest, I’m perfectly fine being lower on him than consensus. The production is solid, the athleticism is strong, but the upside feels limited — and he’s not someone I’m especially worried about missing on.

13. Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee

Height: 5’8”, Weight: 200 lbs, Age: 20.6

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 81.4 Pro Day SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 3 (RB7)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 4 (RB15)

Sampson, the youngest RB in this year’s class, was stuck behind Jaylen Wright during his first two seasons with the Volunteers before erupting without him in 2024. His 22 rushing touchdowns led all Power Conference RBs, and his 1,488 rushing yards ranked 6th-best. He was more productive than Wright was in his best season, but nowhere near as efficient.

Truthfully, I struggle to see Sampson as anything more than a smaller^[54] and poorer man’s Jaylen Wright. Bear in mind that’s not much of a compliment, considering how low I was on Wright last season — he was just my pre-draft RB6 and then underwhelmed as a rookie despite a perfect landing spot.

Wright was freakishly efficient at Tennessee but benefited mightily from Tennessee’s scheme, feasting on light fronts at a historically absurd rate. I worry Sampson benefited from the same scheme, but without the freakish hyper-efficiency.

Over the last two seasons, 54% of Sampson’s runs have come with six or fewer defenders in the box. Although that’s not as crazy as Wright’s 78% in 2023, this would still lead all non-Ole Miss RBs in this year’s class. Seemingly, both were gifted with a long runway on an inordinantly high number of runs — a class-high 67.6% of Sampson’s career runs came when first contact was initiated after the line of scrimmage, right around Wright’s 68.4%. In addition to Wright, Round 6 Zach Evans and Round 7 Mike Weber are the only RBs drafted (since 2018) with a higher career mark than Sampson’s 67.6%.

Within this context, Sampson’s 5.86 career YPC looks far less impressive. When first contact was initiated at or before the line of scrimmage, he averaged just 1.72 YPC (21% less than the Day 1-2 average). With a runway, he averaged just 7.85 (10% less than the Day 1-2 average). Of course, getting past the line of scrimmage untouched could be more of a RB skill than I’ve made it out to be here, but I’m disinclined to believe that when RBs like Jabari Small in 2021 (Wright’s predecessor) and Greg McRae (Josh Heupel’s RB1 at UCF in 2021) seemingly carried the same skill, both going untouched past the line of scrimmage on over 70% of their runs.

Perhaps I’m being overly nitpicky, but in a stacked RB class, I need to take a stand somewhere. Still, I didn’t completely bury him — at least not as much as Brett Whitefield did (RB15 on film) — mostly because his projected draft capital is so high (Round 3, RB7). And because, well, I’m a little terrified Kyle Shanahan ends up falling in love with him^[55] and, in a perfect landing spot, Sampson makes me look foolish a few years from now.

Pass-Catching Upside

Based on the numbers, it’s hard to see much pass-catching upside for Sampson. But if you squint extra hard, you'll notice his career YPRR (1.06) was actually slightly above the class average. And his relatively modest 175 receiving yards in 2023 and 143 in 2024 are actually the most by any RB under Josh Heupel since he took over at Tennessee in 2021. Still, for a player I already have reservations about, Sampson’s pass-catching resume probably just adds to our list of concerns.

TLDR / Conclusion

Sampson is definitively not one of “my guys” in this year’s class. To me, he looks like a poorer man’s Jaylen Wright — another Josh Heupel-inflated RB I wasn’t ever high on to begin with. That said, after hedging a bit for projected draft capital, he tentatively checks in as my RB13 as the end of my Tier 6.

Sleeper Tier

Deep Sleeper 1: Tahj Brooks, RB, Texas Tech

Height: 5’9”, Weight: 214 lbs, Age: 23.0

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 71.2 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 7 (RB22)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 4 (RB16)

In 2023, Tahj Brooks forced 96 total missed tackles — the 7th-most by any Power Conference RB in PFF College history, trailing only Bijan Robinson, David Montgomery, Travis Etienne, Zack Moss, and Cam Skattebo.

In 2024, he averaged 154.9 rushing YPG — the 3rd-best single-season mark in this year’s class, behind only 2024 Ashton Jeanty and 2024 Omarion Hampton. Even more impressive: he recorded at least 95 rushing yards in each of his last 22 collegiate games. That’s an insane stat, and I believe the most since Archie Griffin (1973-1975).

That said, Brooks is also a five-year player who underwhelmed in each of his first three seasons and never really impressed in the advanced efficiency metrics my model values most. He ranks below average for this class in career YACO/A^[56] and career MTF/T. He faced light fronts at one of the highest rates in the class (83% of his career carries) and ranks 5th-worst in the class by career box-adjusted YPC. To make matters worse, he’s probably the worst pass-catcher mentioned in this article.

All this being said, he’s basically arbitrage Quinshon Judkins in my eyes. Upside matters more than downside is detrimental, and there’s enough good in the profile (especially relative to cost) to overlook the bad.

Deep Sleeper 2: Brashard Smith, RB, SMU

Height: 5’10”, Weight: 194 lbs, Age: 22.0

Athleticism (SPORQ Score): 39.1 SPORQ

Proj. Draft Capital: Round 5 (RB16)

Brett Whitefield’s Film Grade: Round 4 (RB14)

Brashard Smith spent his first three seasons at Miami playing wide receiver. While never quite a full-time player^[57], he was effective when on the field — averaging 2.06 career YPRR before converting to RB in 2024. Remember, this is a critical threshold for WRs looking to find success at the next level. For reference, highly regarded WR prospects like Jack Bech (1.86), Matthew Golden (1.85), Isaiah Bond (1.73), and Savion Williams (1.56) all fell short of that mark. Smith’s career-best receiving yardage came in 2022 with a very modest 308 yards — but that still ranked 3rd on the team and ahead of projected Round 4 WR Xavier Restrepo.

In 2024, Smith transferred to SMU and made a full-time switch to RB — despite having just 18 career carries to that point. He immediately took over the backfield, earning 66% of the team’s carries and delivering a 232-1,326-14 rushing line, with an additional 39-327-4 as a receiver. Despite his inexperience, he dramatically reshaped the offense. His 1,659 yards from scrimmage were the 2nd-most in SMU history, trailing only Eric Dickerson’s 1,677 in 1982. That total also more than doubled^[58] the average YFS of SMU’s RB1 over the previous three seasons (793.7). And he averaged 5.72 YPC, significantly outpacing the rest of the backfield in combination (4.08).

Smith maintained his strong pass-game efficiency in the transition, averaging 1.61 YPRR — the 3rd-best single-season mark of any Power Conference RB in this class. His advanced rushing efficiency metrics weren’t quite as impressive, but still solidly Day 2-caliber: 3.34 yards after contact per attempt (55th percentile among historical Round 1–3 RBs) and 0.23 missed tackles forced per touch (60th percentile). That said, some of his production may have been inflated by Rhett Lashlee’s spread scheme — Smith faced light boxes on 83.6% of his carries last year, one of the highest rates in the class. Even if it’s fair to question his rushing efficiency, it’s reasonable to think there’s still untapped upside and room for growth given his inexperience playing the position.

Regardless of what happens next, I have difficulty imagining Brashard Smith won’t become one of my favorite cost-adjusted players in this year’s class. Just because — as a converted WR — he’s of the dream archetype we’ve been chasing since 2016 David Johnson, when Johnson broke fantasy leagues averaging 18.3 carries and 7.5 targets per game.

Smith is fast (4.39 forty-yard dash), but he doesn’t come close to matching the size/athleticism profile of Johnson (6'1", 224 lbs, 98.5 SPORQ), or even more recent WR-to-RB converts like Antonio Gibson (6’0”, 228 lbs, 89.7 SPORQ) and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (5’11”, 209 lbs, 88.6 SPORQ). At 5’10”, 194 lbs (7th percentile), with a 6th percentile BMI, he’s unlikely to ever handle that kind of rushing workload.^[59]

Even if the NFL is more willing to overlook size in today’s game, Smith most likely projects as a high-end “scatback-plus” — more Theo Riddick or James White than an actual bell cow. Keep in mind that this is possibly a now-extinct archetype. But his pass-catching trump card still gives him among the best upside of any RB in this class after the top-12.