Five Stats to Know: 2024 Week 6

Week 6 is (mostly) in the books! In case you aren’t an insane person like me who likes to spend his Sunday night digging through usage data, I’ve curated five stats that will help you make better decisions in all fantasy football formats for the coming weeks.

I’ll also do my best to provide buy, sell, and waiver recommendations for managed leagues where applicable based on my findings. For a broader (if slightly less detailed) overview of usage across the league, I recommend this Twitter thread.

Stat #1: Justin Herbert Unleashed

Justin Herbert dropped back 38 times today. His previous season-high was 29 dropbacks. This happened in a game that the Chargers led by multiple scores during 7 of their 9 drives.

One of two things happened here: 1) The team came out of its bye unsatisfied with an offense ranking 7th-worst by EPA/play (-0.091) that had failed to top 10 points in consecutive losses, or, 2) Greg Roman decided to be more aggressive through the air after Broncos CB Pat Surtain was knocked out of the game with a concussion on the Chargers’ first offensive play.

Of course, both could be true to some extent, and I noted a couple of weeks ago in The Everything Report that the Chargers’ play volume and pass rates were far below any team we’d seen in recent history (including offenses called by Roman himself), and seemed primed to regress. Anything approaching Week 6’s rates would be incredibly bullish for both Ladd McConkey and J.K. Dobbins going forward, who amassed a 23.5% target share and a 77.1% backfield opportunity share in Week 5, respectively.

Stat #2: The Backfields That Will Drive Us Insane, Week 6

Travis Etienne did not receive another touch after fumbling early in the 2nd quarter and was later ruled out with a hamstring injury. After that play, the backfield was split as such:

• D’Ernest Johnson: 56% carry share, 2 targets

• Tank Bigsby: 44% carry share

In other words, Johnson stepped mostly one-for-one into Etienne’s role, receiving about half the work on the ground and all of the work through the air. This is further confirmation that the Jaguars’ coaching staff does not view Bigsby as trustworthy on passing downs, nor do they seem willing to feature him even with Etienne unavailable. (Though, to be fair, the team was trailing most of the day, the opposite of Bigsby’s ideal game script.)

Regardless of Etienne’s health, we’ve frustratingly learned that Bigsby does not have much contingent upside. But he’s out-carried Etienne 4 to 2 inside the 10-yard line in their last three full games together, meaning the high-value touches are unfortunately spread out in this backfield. This should have been an ideal Etienne game script, but even his and Johnson’s workloads put together today (~10.6 weighted opportunities) were nowhere near RB2-worthy.

The Cardinals also had an odd backfield split today, as James Conner missed the first drive of the second half while getting his ankle taped. He returned for the next drive, promptly fumbled, and did not return after.

In total, the backfield carry shares broke down as:

• Conner: 44%

• Trey Benson: 31%

• Emari Demercado: 25%

4 of Benson’s 5 carries came while Conner was getting taped on the sideline, which suggests the team views him as the direct early-down replacement. Demarcado mostly played in the second half with the Cardinals chasing points, ending with a 21.9% target share. I’d expect a split to that effect should Conner miss time, which (not unlike the Jaguars) suggests little upside all around. I’d consider Benson a sell-low in dynasty formats.

As for the Buccaneers’ backfield, we witnessed a rather surprising split between Bucky Irving and 2023 UDFA Sean Tucker. If you saw this coming, you should have used your knowledge to win a million dollars.

Tucker was involved throughout the day, beginning on the Buccaneers’ second drive. In total, it was:

• Irving: 14 carries, 2 targets (including 3 of 4 carries inside the 10)

• Tucker: 14 carries, 3 targets

Arguably, the split was not quite as close as the final box score makes it seem, as six of Tucker’s carries (including his goal-line TD) came on the final drive with the Buccaneers up 24 points. But what Tucker showed (9.7 YPC, with multiple big plays on the ground and through the air) makes it tough to imagine Irving ever in a true bell-cow role this season, whether it’s Tucker or Rachaad White around to prevent such an occurrence. Tucker should not be left on waivers in dynasty formats, and Irving’s rest-of-season upside took a real hit Sunday.

Stat #3: Brock Bowers Is Inevitable

Bowers commanded another 10 targets on Sunday and has now seen at least a 20% target share in four of his six games. The following is a selection of high-end fantasy football players who have not commanded a 20% target share in at least four separate games this season:

• Ja’Marr Chase (Has done it in 3 games)

• CeeDee Lamb (3)

• George Kittle (3)

• Jayden Reed (2)

• Brian Thomas Jr. (2)

• DK Metcalf (3)

Two of Bowers’ four 20%+ target share games occurred alongside Davante Adams. Two occurred entirely with Gardner Minshew, and the other two occurred mostly with Aidan O’Connell. It does not matter what happens to this offense nor how you split his production up; Bowers has consistently ranked as the best rookie TE in modern memory with each passing week.

Travis Kelce and George Kittle are the only TEs it makes a shred of sense to prefer over Bowers rest-of-season (and I’m not even sure I do). In dynasty formats, Bowers was already my clear TE1 entering the week and has only further solidified his spot significantly above Trey McBride; I’d happily add a rookie 2nd-rounder to upgrade from McBride to Bowers.

Stat #4: The Bijan Robinson Problem

It’s been pretty clear that Bijan Robinson has not been healthy over the past few weeks, appearing on the injury report with shoulder and hamstring injuries since Week 4. That’s coincided with both with the Falcons becoming more pass-heavy and with Tyler Allgeier becoming more involved. Allgeier’s share of backfield opportunities has grown from 25% in Weeks 1-3 to 48% in Weeks 4-6.

One might suggest simply being satisfied with 25.5 fantasy points from Robinson, and that’s fair on some level. Robinson delivered in this nuts matchup, but the worrying usage trends did not go away. Even if one charitably removes the final two “garbage time” drives (where Allgeier received 10 of his 18 carries as well as scored his touchdown), Robinson received only 65.4% of backfield opportunities in Week 6. Worse, the pair split carries inside the 10-yard-line evenly 3 to 3.

As I mentioned, Robinson was on the injury report leading up to this week. I’d expect a similar workload split going forward in any week that he logs a limited practice on a Thursday. If that makes him a “sell-high” to you, I’d understand — but also understand that he could revert back to the workload we saw in Weeks 1-3 any time if he gets healthy. It may be a touch early to think about this, but his playoff schedule (@ LV, @ NYG, vs. WAS) looks excellent right now. I’d only sell if you’re getting true RB1 value in return.

Stat #5: Drake Maye’s Debut

Through the first five weeks of the season, Patriots pass-catchers totaled just 2 receiving TDs. Drake Maye just threw 3 of them in his first start.

Though Maye’s debut was uneven and involved several turnovers (with a couple coming off his pass-catchers’ hands), I still saw enough to have some actual interest in this team’s receiving corps going forward. Demario Douglas led the team in target share Sunday (27.3%) and on the season (18.2%), placing him in FLEX territory in expected negative game scripts (of which there will be several). Hunter Henry is a much more convincing TE streamer now, while Ja’Lynn Polk remains an intriguing speculative stash.