Five Stats to Know: 2024 Week 15

Week 15 is (mostly) in the books! In case you aren’t an insane person like me who likes to spend his Sunday night digging through usage data, I’ve curated five stats that will help you make better decisions in all fantasy football formats for the coming weeks.

Based on my findings, I’ll also do my best to provide buy, sell, and waiver recommendations for managed leagues where applicable. For a broader (if slightly less detailed) overview of usage across the league, I recommend this Twitter thread.

Stat #1: Who Is Now The Rookie WR1?

I still think the answer is Malik Nabers. Probably. His 32.2% target share and his 41.8% first-read target share each lead all receivers — not just rookies — in the Fantasy Points Data era. His 19.3 XFP/G entering Week 15 had ranked top-12 among WRs since 2021. No rookie in recent memory (including Puka Nacua) has come in and immediately commanded volume to the extent Nabers has.

But with all that said, I’m having a seriously hard time not firing off a take about preferring Brian Thomas Jr. to Nabers straight up in dynasty formats. Through the first eight weeks before he sustained a chest injury, and while competing with Christian Kirk, BTJ had been averaging 2.81 YPRR, which would have been the best of any rookie in Fantasy Points Data history. Since the bye, he’s averaged a 29.4% target share (would rank ~WR2 this year), 89.0 receiving YPG (~WR5), and 22.6 FPG (~WR2).

Looking at BTJ’s entire season (but excluding the three games he was playing hurt before the bye), he’s averaging 17.4 FPG — just 0.2 FPG less than Puka Nacua did as a rookie. And not many others have them beat…

{{TWEET

Time to update this.

Rookie WRs since 2010 to average more FPG than Brian Thomas Jr.:

[+ excluding Weeks 9-11 when he was playing hurt]:

1. Odell Beckham (24.6)
2. Ja’Marr Chase (17.9)
3. Puka Nacua (17.6)
…
4. Brian Thomas Jr. (17.4) https://t.co/NzSyaw2PVL

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) December 16, 2024

}}

Both Nabers and BTJ have little certainty about their head coach and OC in 2025. But at least in BTJ’s case, we know Trevor Lawrence will be under center. The Giants will likely need to earn the first overall pick (or at least draft higher than the Raiders) to secure Shedeur Sanders, the only quarterback our scouting expert Brett Whitefield currently believes is a tier 1 prospect.

Again, I’m not saying I’d rather have BTJ. I’m just saying it’s much closer than I expected it to be when I first started considering the question.

Stat #2: The Backfields That Will Drive Us Insane, Week 15

I will be curious to tally up the number of appearances each team’s backfield has made in this section once the season is over. But I feel pretty confident the Titans will have been mentioned the most.

Tony Pollard missed at least one drive when his ankle flared up. I say “at least” because Tyjae Spears received two consecutive goal-line carries as his first two touches of the game — not a role he’s been used in much at all this year. It was unclear whether Pollard was hurt at that point.

Pollard took the first carry of the third drive but was then promptly declared questionable to return. He returned for the fourth drive and played the rest of the game, finishing with an 81% backfield carry share. Are you confused? Welcome to this backfield.

Spears notably received all 7 backfield targets (for an 18.4% target share), though five were from Mason Rudolph after Will Levis was benched. Considering this, along with the fact that Spears ran more routes than Pollard last week (for the first time all season), we could be seeing the Titans finally utilize their two backs in more specialized roles, with Pollard the early-down grinder and Spears the receiving back.

That’s probably the most optimal real-life deployment of these two players’ skillsets, but it makes projecting the backfield fairly difficult for fantasy. With two usable matchups against the Colts and Jaguars to finish out the year, I want to apologize in advance to anyone who heeds my advice on whether to start either back going forward.

Stat #3: Davante Adams Is Getting Fed Until He Pukes Money

Only Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, and Puka Nacua have more targets than Davante Adams since he was traded to the Jets. But he and best friend Aaron Rodgers took the volume to another level in Week 15, with Adams drawing a season-high 40% target share he parlayed into leading all receivers in yards (198) and fantasy points (42.8) through the Sunday night game. Those 42.8 fantasy points were the 4th-most by a WR in any game this year, behind only performances from Ja’Marr Chase (twice) and Jauan Jennings.

The rest of this section is pure speculation and conjecture, but Garrett Wilson had a season-low 3 catches and did not appear happy with his usage on the sideline.

With the Jets eliminated from postseason contention, it’s at least worth thinking about whether Rodgers is motivated to inflate Adams’ stats as much as he can to improve his friend’s standing in contract negotiations for this offseason — no team will let Adams play on his deal in 2025 based on the current structure, as his cap hit balloons to $38.3 million next year. Whether that means the Jets simply cut him or renegotiate remains to be seen. But Rodgers’ deal makes him very hard to cut — it would cause $49 million in dead cap, compared to just a $23.5 million cap hit if he remains on the team — so I suspect he will attempt to lobby whatever new management regime comes in to re-sign Adams.

Will any of this work? Probably not. I’d expect a new regime to clean the house regardless, with Rodgers potentially included. But does Rodgers think it will work if he and Adams pad their stats over these next few weeks? That’s my read.

Stat #4: The Derrick Henry Postmortem

Over the past five weeks, Derrick Henry has averaged just 12.1 FPG (~RB29) and hasn’t exceeded 14.1 fantasy points since Week 9. Maybe that shouldn’t be massively surprising — he entered the week averaging just 13.5 XFP/G (~RB23). He’s notoriously game script-sensitive, and the Ravens had not won by more than one score over any of their previous four games, trailing on 65% of their offensive plays over that span.

But this week was supposed to be different. In the nuts matchup as a three-score favorite, Henry dropped an incredibly disappointing 6.7 fantasy points on just 14 carries, despite Baltimore winning by 21 points. The Ravens simply stayed pass-heavy all day, with Lamar Jackson joining Joe Burrow as the only other QB with multiple 5+ passing TD games this season. (To add insult to Henry’s fantasy owners’ injuries, Justice Hill caught one of those, finishing with 17.8 fantasy points). Rookie Rasheen Ali entered in garbage time to run the clock out.

There’s a chance this was about Jackson and OC Todd Monken attempting to compete in the MVP race, and that we can expect Henry’s opportunities to be limited in favor of pass attempts for the remainder of the year. But even if not, Henry’s best chance for a difference-making score in the fantasy playoffs is now gone (for any of his owners who survived this week, that is). The Ravens are just 5.0-point and 1.5-point favorites against the Steelers and Texans over the next two weeks in a pair of bottom-12 schedule-adjusted rushing matchups against two teams fighting for playoff seeding. Henry can explode in any game — I’d be a fool to count him out — but it now seems like there’s a real chance we look back on the second half of his fantasy season as a massive disappointment.

Stat #5: Did Anybody Else Forget About Devonta Smith?

Given all the discourse about A.J. Brown’s unhappiness with Jalen Hurts and his role, it shouldn’t have been a surprise to see him set season-highs in targets (11) and fantasy points (25.0) this week. OC Kellen Moore may have taken it to heart, as Jalen Hurts dropped back the most times (38) he has in any game since Week 3, despite the Eagles leading for most of the game.

What was surprising to me is that DeVonta Smith led the team with 12 targets and 28.0 fantasy points, also both season-highs. But again, I shouldn’t be shocked. Smith has always been highly productive when one of the Eagles’ other top-3 pass-catchers has been out. This offense has just been so stubbornly run-heavy and Saquon Barkley-centric until this past week that I’d almost forgotten Dallas Goedert is out for the regular season.

Assuming A.J. Brown’s ankle injury is “fine,” as he told reporters after the game, Smith would remain an upside WR2 over the final two weeks of the season. If Brown misses time, Smith’s projection would likely crack the top-12 at the position.