Week 18 Game Hub: WAS-NYG

Washington Football Team (6-10, 6-9-1 ATS) at New York Giants (4-12, 6-10), 1 p.m.

Brolley’s Washington Stats and Trends

• Washington beat New York 30-29 as four-point home favorites in a game totaled at 41 points back in Week 2.

• The Football Team is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games.

• Washington is 8-3 toward unders in its last 11 games.

• Antonio Gibson missed last week with COVID and we’ll see if he decides to suit up this week. He needs 109 rushing yards to reach 1000 yards for the season. Jaret Patterson stepped into the lead role in Week 17, and the UDFA rookie out of Buffalo stepped up and delivered 12/57/1 rushing and 5/41 receiving for 20.8 FP on a 62% snap share against Philadelphia. Gibson posted 15/71 scrimmage when he met the Giants way back in Week 2.

• Taylor Heinicke hasn’t reached 11+ FP since Week 13 and Kyle Allen is a threat to come into the lineup at any point, but at least Heinie is coming off his best showing in more than a month. He completed 27/36 passes for 247 scoreless yards (6.9 YPA) and one INT in Washington’s loss to the Eagles in Week 17. The Giants are an absolute abomination and Heinicke posted 21.0 FP against them back in Week 2

• Terry McLaurin needs 40 receiving yards to reach 1000 yards for the second straight season. He had failed to reach 5+ catches in five straight games in Weeks 12-16 before snapping out of his funk with 7/61 receiving on eight targets. McLaurin had his best fantasy performance of the season with 11/107/1 receiving against the Giants in Week 2.

• Washington had already elevated John Bates above Ricky Seals-Jones in recent weeks, and the fourth-round pick is the last man standing at the position after RSJ suffered a concussion in a collision with a cameraman in Week 17. Bates finished with 3/35 receiving on four targets against the Eagles. The Giants limited Cole Kmet to 3/25 receiving on five targets last week.

Brolley’s Giants Stats and Trends

• The Giants have lost five straight games by double-digit margins and they haven’t covered a spread in that span.

• New York is 20-6-1 toward unders in its last 27 games.

• The Bears had no problems taking care of a New York offense that finished with -10 net passing yards. The Giants literally surrendered to the Bears last week, attempting just 11 passes compared to 40 rushing attempts in their 26-point loss. Jake Fromm will get another start this week with Mike Glennon out with a hand injury. He previously completed 6/17 passes for 25 yards (1.5 YPA) and one INT before getting pulled in his only NFL start in Week 16 against the Eagles. This passing game is completely dead heading into the season finale even with Washington giving up by far a league-high 23.9 FPG to quarterbacks.

• Saquon Barkley is coming off season-highs in carries (21) and rushing yards (102) despite the Giants trailing for the entire game against the Bears last week. The Giants can’t even figure out a way to get him involved as a receiver in the last two weeks with just 1/-4 receiving on two targets in Weeks 16-17. Barkley has 16+ touches in six straight games but he’s found the end zone just once in his last eight games. Washington is giving up 4.0 YPC and the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game (76.4) to RBs this season.

Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies

Washington

Pace (seconds in between plays): 30.2 (28th)

Plays per game: 63.8 (14th)

Pass: 56.9% (23rd) | Run: 43.1% (10th)

Giants

Pace: 29.4 (19th)

Plays per game: 61.4 (20th)

Pass: 61.6% (12th) | Run: 38.4% (21st)

All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.

Pace Points

The Giants offense has been nothing short of a disaster as of late and now have to turn to Jake Fromm in the finale. If you remember, Fromm was somehow worse than Mike Glennon in Week 16. Over the last eight weeks, the Giants have scored just six TDs on their 80 possessions (worst) and have turned the ball over a whopping 17 times (also worst) in this span. Meanwhile, Washington hasn’t been much better! They’ve scored 17 or fewer points six times in their last 7 outings as Taylor Heinicke can’t stop taking sacks and making mistakes. This is the fourth-worst matchup from a pace / plays perspective and could end up being even more unbearable if the Giants just give up and run a ton again like last week. I really hope you don’t have to watch this game.

Huber’s Key Matchup Notes

When provided with the proper level of quarterbacking, nobody is going to ghost my boy Terry McLaurin. In actual fact, stick F1 McLaurin on the perimeter of an offense directed by an elite, top-five QB, and, I would expose my lineups to Terry McScorin, with complete confidence at his current pricing, against any corner in the NFL – yes, even Jalen Ramsey. That’s the level of amazing this kid could be if he can finally work with reciprocal talent at QB.

That’s not to say that I am completely dismissing the potential development of Taylor Heinicke. But he just hasn’t displayed anything close to the consistency-and-prowess balance this offense desperately needs. For Week 18, the Giants are either going to shadow Run-TMc with Adoree' Jackson, James Bradberry, or a combination of the two. Since Washington is unable to field anything game-ready and comparable to McLaurin, the alignment percentages dictate it’ll be Jackson. And Adoree’ is locking his coverage down with 0.67 YPCS (fourth-fewest), 0.17 FP/CS (sixth-fewest), a 74.6 TPR (14th-lowest), and the 14th-lowest completion rate on deep targets.

Dolan’s Vantage Points

At this point, Washington fans are looking forward to the end of the season and the Team’s new identity, which will be announced in early February.

There’s not a whole lot to be excited about from this game for fantasy, though it’s possible the Team gets Antonio Gibson (hip) back this week. He’s gotten some work in at practice this week, and is 109 rushing yards shy of 1000 on the season, if he cares about that.

Terry McLaurin, as mentioned above, is far more likely to hit his benchmark. He’s 40 yards shy of 1000 on the season.

As for the Giants… well. It looks like rookie Kadarius Toney (shoulder) will end his disappointing first campaign in the NFL on the sidelines after being downgraded to “did not practice” midweek.

That’s not what Giant fans are focused on, though — there is some speculation out there that much-maligned GM Dave Gettleman will be stepping down.

The Giants are an absolute disaster. If they will have a new GM, it’s a multi-year rebuild plan, but they’ll at least have two top-10 picks to expedite it.