New York Jets (4-12, 6-10 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (10-6, 8-6-2), 4:25 p.m.
Brolley’s Jets Stats and Trends
The Jets are 4-1 toward overs in their last five games.
The Jets are building some momentum late in the season with three straight covers, and they nearly stunned the Buccaneers in Week 17 before letting Tom Brady off the ropes late.
Zach Wilson is far from a finished product but he’s averaged more than 7.0 YPA in two of his last three games after doing it just once in his first nine games, and he’s shown some improvement with his top three WRs out of the lineup in recent weeks. He had the Jets in a position to knock off the Buccaneers in Week 17 by completing 19/33 passes for 234 yards (7.1 YPA). Wilson missed this matchup earlier this season and Mike White filled in and threw four INTs in Week 10.
Braxton Berrios is on the radar when Jamison Crowder (calf) and/or Elijah Moore (quad, IR) are unable to play, which could be the case once again in the season finale against the Bills. He’s coming off a monster game with 8/65/1 receiving on 12 targets against the Buccaneers in Week 17, and he added 2/12/1 rushing for 26.7 FP. Berrios very quietly has double-digit FP in four straight games heading into the season finale. Moore posted 3/44/1 receiving in this matchup back in mid-November.
Tevin Coleman landed on the COVID list and missed last week, but he could be needed this week with Michael Carter suffering a concussion in Week 17. The Jets would roll with a combination of Coleman and Austin Walter as the top runners with Ty Johnson working in passing situations against the Bills. Coleman played only 19 snaps in Week 16 but he got a carry on 14 of them, and he also has six targets in his last four games. Coleman posted 6/35 scrimmage as a secondary option against the Bills back in Week 10.
Brolley’s Bills Stats and Trends
The Bills beat the Jets 45-17 as 13.5-point road favorites in a game totaled at 48.5 points in mid-November.
Buffalo is 7-1-2 ATS in its last nine games against teams with losing records.
Josh Allen completed just 11/26 passes for 120 yards and three INTs last week, but he still got home for fantasy thanks to a season-best 15/81/2 rushing against the Falcons. He completed 21/28 passes for a ridiculous 366 yards (13.0 YPA) and two touchdowns in this matchup back in Week 10.
Stefon Diggs is six catches away from reaching 100 for the season, which would unlock a 650K bonus. Allen will want to get his guy paid this week but he’s actually finished with fewer than six catches in four of his last seven contests. His best game of the season came against these Jets in Week 10 when he finished with 8/162/1 receiving on 13 targets.
Gabriel Davis returned to the lineup in Week 17 after missing a game for COVID, and he finished second in receiving behind Diggs. He caught all three of his targets for 40 yards in their victory over the Falcons. Emmanuel Sanders sat out last week with a knee injury but he could return this week to muddle this receiving corps behind Diggs, but Sanders seems to be on the decline with Davis ascending. Davis has been the second-best option in this passing attack ever since he went for 3/105 receiving against this week’s opponent, the Jets, in Week 10. He scored four TDs in a three-game span in Weeks 13-15.
Dawson Knox failed to catch either of his targets last week, which gives him just 6/49/1 receiving on 10 targets over the last three weeks. Knox caught his only target for 17 yards when he played the Jets back in Week 10, but New York just gave up 7/115 receiving on 10 targets last week.
Devin Singletary has scored 14+ FP in four straight games since he became the team’s bellcow back — he’s seen 68% of the snaps or more in five of his last six games. He’s coming off season-bests in carries (23), rushing yards (110), rushing TDs (2), and FP (23.0) against the Falcons last week. Singletary finished with 7/43/1 rushing against New York back in mid-November, and Matt Breida and Zack Moss each chipped in with their own touchdowns.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Jets
Pace (seconds in between plays): 28.1 (9th)
Plays per game: 60.4 (27th)
Pass: 61.9% (10th) | Run: 38.1% (23rd)
Bills
Pace: 28.3 (11th)
Plays per game: 64.3 (13th)
Pass: 60.7% (15th) | Run: 39.3% (18th)
All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.
Pace Points
The Bills can win the AFC East by beating the Jets, so they are full-go. I expect Josh Allen to bounce back and wax this Jets secondary here. Allen destroyed them for 366 yards on 28 pass attempts back in Week 10 and they just got ripped for 410 and 3 TDs by Tom Brady last week. Over the last eight weeks, the Bills are third in pass rate in close games and 11th when leading. For as long as this game is remotely close, the Bills are going to throw the ball a ton here.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
As has been reverberated within this series week-after-week, NYJ puts one of the poorest examples of run defense on the field that can easily be considered as one of the worst from the last decade. Again, the Jets’ defense surrenders a boatload of numbers. With Matt Breida disrespected as a healthy scratch on a weekly basis and Zack Moss holding Devin’s backup jockstrap, Singletary has fabricated 19.1 FPG over his last four games. With three of those performances against the Bucs, Panthers, and Pats’ very capable defenses, we should be counting on no less than 30 FPs from Singletary, no? In all seriousness, I am expecting top-three RB production from Devin Singletary in Week 18.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
Last week, our Greg Cosell said the Bills were the “most QB-centric offense” in the NFL. And given Josh Allen’s skill set, that makes sense. But Greg has also decried the Bills’ lack of a meaningful run game at multiple points this season, and now that they have one — thanks to Devin Singletary — we see why.
Allen was awful in Week 17, throwing 3 INTs and completing just 11/26 passes for 120 yards against the Falcons. But Singletary steadied the ship for the Bills in the second half, winding up with 23/110/2 rushing, the best fantasy performance of his entire career. He played 80% of the offensive snaps in Week 17, meaning he’s played 68% of the snaps or more in five of the Bills’ last six games. He is entering the playoffs as Buffalo’s bell cow back and a rock-solid fantasy option. For those playing in Week 18, his matchup with the Jets is glorious as the Bills look to lock up their second consecutive AFC East championship.
It doesn’t look likely the Bills will have WR Emmanuel Sanders (knee) this week, which is all good and well because Gabriel Davis has outplayed him of late anyway.
As for the Jets, it doesn’t look like breakout star WR Elijah Moore (quad) will be able to finish his rookie season in the lineup.
Elijah Moore is on a side field working with trainers. I can’t see him playing on Sunday after not practicing for a month.
— Brian Costello (@BrianCoz) January 6, 2022
Moore being out would be good news for Braxton Berrios, who has been a rock-solid fantasy contributor in recent weeks. He’d be on the start radar… if he wasn’t expected to miss this game with an injury (quad) of his own. So it looks like a lot of Jamison Crowder? Unfortunately, Crowder’s got a difficult matchup with slot CB Taron Johnson.
Another injury to watch is RB Michael Carter, who left last week’s game against the Bucs with a concussion.
