The initial odds for the winner of Super Bowl LVI have been released over the last couple of weeks since the Conference Championship Round. It seems like a good time to dive into the initial odds to see if there are any value bets out there now that the NFL has crowned the Buccaneers as the Super Bowl LV champions for the 2020 season.
Oddsmakers have pegged Kansas City as the favorite to win their second title in three seasons at +500 odds while the Buccaneers, the defending champions, have the shortest odds to win the title out of the NFC at +950.
National Football Conference
The odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of Feb. 8.
| Team | Super Bowl LVI Odds | 2020 Record (ATS) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +950 | 11-5 (9-7) |
| Green Bay Packers | +1100 | 13-3 (10-6) |
| Los Angeles Rams | +1200 | 10-6 (9-7) |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1300 | 6-10 (7-9) |
| New Orleans Saints | +1900 | 12-4 (9-7) |
| Seattle Seahawks | +2000 | 12-4 (8-8) |
| Dallas Cowboys | +3300 | 6-10 (5-11) |
| Arizona Cardinals | +4100 | 8-8 (7-9) |
| Minnesota Vikings | +4400 | 7-9 (6-10) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +5000 | 4-11-1 (6-10) |
| Atlanta Falcons | +5000 | 4-12 (7-9) |
| Carolina Panthers | +5000 | 5-11 (9-7) |
| Chicago Bears | +6000 | 8-8 (8-8) |
| New York Giants | +7000 | 6-10 (9-7) |
| Washington Football Team | +8000 | 7-9 (9-7) |
| Detroit Lions | +12000 | 5-11 (7-9) |
Bets I’d consider
Washington Football Team +8000
The Football Team is getting no love from the oddsmakers despite owning a young, top-five defense and a ton of cap space to make this team even better in 2021. This is by far my favorite bet on the board based on these long odds, and I find it ridiculous that the Eagles have much shorter odds than Washington heading into the off-season based on the current talent level and the salary-cap situations for both teams.
Washington allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game (316.5) and the fifth-fewest points per game (21.2) last season, and young studs Chase Young and Montez Sweat helped them to finish with the sixth-most sacks (47). Washington not only has one of the best D-lines, but they could have one of the best safety corps with Landon Collins coming back to play next to emerging standouts Kamren Curl and Jeremy Reaves. The Football Team could have one of the best defenses next season if they’re able to upgrade their cornerback situation, and they have the sixth-most cap space (per Spotrac.com) to make it happen.
The Football Team is just a quarterback away from being serious contenders next season, and they appear willing to upgrade the position after offering the Lions their first- and third-round picks for Matthew Stafford. Washington already has an intriguing cast of weapons with Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, and Logan Thomas and that group could easily take a big leap forward with an above-average starting NFL quarterback. It also doesn’t hurt that they play in the weakest division in the league to potentially stack wins when it comes to seeding in the NFC. Washington’s odds should be closer to +5000 heading into free agency so we’re getting quite a bit of value at +8000.
Minnesota Vikings +4400
Our resident Vikings fan John Hansen would scoff at this bet since his favorite team has never won a Super Bowl. The Vikings also haven’t represented the NFC in the big game since they did it three times in a four-year span in 1973, 1974, and 1976. Minnesota has the odds of the ninth-best team in the NFC, but I see a pretty complete roster if their defense can get healthy and if their young cornerbacks develop in their first off-season as pros.
Mike Zimmer’s defense fell behind his offense last season. Minnesota ranked outside the top-10 in points allowed for the first time in his seven-year tenure. The Vikings went into a full rebuild on defense last season with nine players gone from their 2019 unit. It showed as they allowed the fourth-most points per game (29.7) and the sixth-most yards per game (393.2). The Vikings defense had a ton of bad luck, though, with free-agent DT Michael Pierce opting out before the season. DE Danielle Hunter (neck) also didn’t play a single snap while LB Anthony Barr (pec) and CB Mike Hughes (neck) combined to play just six games. Rookie CBs Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler also got thrown right into the fire last season and they certainly struggled. Still, this defense has a chance to be a top-10 unit once again if their cornerbacks take big steps forward as sophomores and if they can get Barr, Pierce, Hunter, and Hughes back in the fold.
There are obvious questions if Kirk Cousins is good enough to get this team over the top, but he’s coming off one of his best seasons in 2020 — he averaged a career-high 8.3 YPA with a career-best 35 TD passes. He also has some of the best players at their respective positions at his disposal. Dalvin Cook is one of the few running backs who move the needle, and Justin Jefferson could be one of the best receivers in the league after setting an NFL rookie record with 1400 receiving yards. Minnesota’s odds should be closer to +3000 so we’re getting a little bit of value.
American Football Conference
The odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of Feb. 8.
| Team | Super Bowl LVI Odds | 2020 Record (ATS) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +500 | 14-2 (7-9) |
| Buffalo Bills | +1100 | 13-3 (11-5) |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1400 | 11-5 (10-6) |
| Cleveland Browns | +2200 | 11-5 (6-10) |
| Tennessee Titans | +2700 | 11-5 (7-9) |
| Miami Dolphins | +2800 | 10-6 (11-5) |
| Indianapolis Colts | +2900 | 11-5 (8-8) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +3100 | 12-4 (10-6) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +3100 | 7-9 (9-7) |
| New England Patriots | +3700 | 7-9 (7-9) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +5000 | 8-8 (8-8) |
| New York Jets | +6500 | 2-14 (6-10) |
| Houston Texans | +7000 | 4-12 (6-10) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +8000 | 4-11-1 (9-7) |
| Denver Broncos | +8000 | 5-11 (9-7) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +8000 | 1-15 (7-9) |
Bets I’d consider
New England Patriots +5000 (William Hill)
The Patriots’ offense really struggled in their first season in the post-Tom Brady era and it led to New England failing to win the AFC East for the first time since 2008. The Patriots went from having one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Brady to one of the worst starting quarterbacks in Cam Newton — he finished behind Andy Dalton and Nick Mullens in QB rating. Bill Belichick’s ego got the best of him last off-season with the Patriots neglecting the quarterback position but that should change this spring.
New England has the fourth-most cap space (per Spotrac.com) and they own the 15th pick in the draft so there’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to significantly upgrade at quarterback. The Patriots also need to revamp their entire receiving corps after they received no significant contributions at WR and TE last season outside of Jakobi Meyers. New England is at least going to get some major reinforcements in 2021. They had an NFL-high eight players opt out for the 2020 season because of COVID-19 concerns, including Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung, and Marcus Cannon. New England should be closer to +3000 odds with the defensive talent they still have on their roster and with an upgrade at quarterback likely coming.
Indianapolis Colts +2900
The Colts have the second-most cap space (per Spotrac.com) heading into the off-season, and they already own one of the better top-to-bottom rosters in the league. They do have massive voids at arguably the two most important positions with Philip Rivers (QB) and Anthony Castonzo (LT) each retiring in January. The Colts are pondering kicking out All-Pro Quenton Nelson to left tackle, which is a luxury that most teams don’t have, and they’ve reportedly been very aggressive in the quarterback market. They made a strong push to land Matthew Stafford before the Rams traded for him, and they’re in talks with the Eagles to reunite Frank Reich with Carson Wentz. The Colts should be closer to the +2000 range since I think they’ll address their quarterback situation in a meaningful way this off-season.
Brolley’s Bets
New England Patriots to win Super Bowl LVI at +5000. Risk .5 units to win 25 units
Washington Football Team to win Super Bowl LVI at +8000. Risk .5 units to win 40 units
