I previously broke down the initial Super Bowl LX odds after Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles put the finishing touches on another world title in February. The 2025 NFL MVP Odds have also been released since last season officially concluded. Lamar Jackson (+450), Josh Allen (+550), Joe Burrow (+600), Patrick Mahomes (+700), and Jayden Daniels (+750) have emerged as the early favorites for the MVP with odds of 10/1 or shorter. Justin Herbert (+1600), Jalen Hurts (+1700), and C.J. Stroud (+1800) round out the top favorites listed at 18/1 or shorter.
I sifted through the MVP odds from the top nationwide sportsbooks to see if there were any bets to make right now before these lines see more betting action in the future. It’s important to remember that the MVP award isn’t entirely driven by results on the field unless one player is head and shoulders above the competition. A good narrative often drives the MVP winner since media voters decide the award. The eventual MVP winner will have to play well to bring home the hardware, but a great storyline could put the eventual winner over the top.
Check out all of my 2025 NFL Futures articles during the off-season and my Best Bets for the 2025 season. We finished up +59.83 units for the 2024 season, including +23.93 units on Futures wagers.
2025 NFL MVP Favorites
The table is sorted by Shortest Odds to win the 2025 NFL MVP. You should target the Longest Odds to win the 2025 NFL MVP to maximize your potential return. I used DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), ESPN Bet (ESPN), and Bet365 (365) to find the best MVP odds as of March 3.
| PLAYER | LONGEST ODDS | SHORTEST ODDS |
| Lamar Jackson (Bal) | +550 (DK) | +450 (FD/MGM) |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | +650 (CZR) | +550 (FD) |
| Joe Burrow (Cin) | +750 (ESPN/MGM) | +600 (FD) |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | +850 (CZR) | +700 (MGM) |
| Jayden Daniels (Was) | +1100 (365/MGM) | +750 (DK) |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | +2500 (MGM, CZR) | +1600 (365) |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | +2000 (multiple) | +1700 (DK/FD) |
| C.J. Stroud (Hou) | +2500 (DK/FD/ESPN) | +1800 (365) |
| Jordan Love (GB) | +3000 (FD) | +2200 (DK) |
| Jared Goff (Det) | +3500 (ESPN) | +2500 (FD/MGM/365) |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | +3500 (DK/ESPN) | +2500 (FD/365) |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | +4000 (FD) | +2500 (DK) |
| Caleb Williams (Chi) | +3500 (MGM/ESPN) | +2800 (DK) |
Brolley’s Bets
Jordan Love (+3000, FanDuel)
Risk .25 units to win 7.5 units. Placed March 3.
Love started last season as the sixth favorite for the MVP at +1400 odds, but his season was quickly thrown off-kilter when he picked up an MCL sprain in the season opener. He missed two games and didn’t look quite right until later in the season, throwing an INT in each of his first eight games and 11 total picks with a 90.6 passer rating. He didn’t throw an INT in his final seven games with a 106.0 passer rating.
The Packers will need to deploy a more pass-heavy attack for Love to get serious MVP consideration after the Packers ranked 30th in pass rate over expectation (-4.5%) last season. Josh Jacobs even called for a more balanced attack after Green Bay’s WR-by-committee approach backfired. He said during Super Bowl week that the Packers need “a guy that’s proven to be a #1 WR already.” The Packers have typically been quiet in free agency, but they spent for Jacobs and Xavier McKinney last year. They’ve been linked to D.K. Metcalf in early trade talks, and they could make a bold move at the position this off-season. Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVP awards playing in Matt LaFleur’s system in 2020 and 2021, and he needed Davante Adams to get the job done.
The MVP has come from a team that’s won 13+ games in six straight seasons, and 11+ victories is essentially mandatory. The Packers are coming off an 11-win season in Love’s second year as a full-time starter, despite going a miserable 1-5 in NFC North play. The 15-win Lions, without Ben Johnson, and the 14-win Vikings, starting basically a rookie QB in J.J. McCarthy, are candidates for regression ahead of them. Green Bay will benefit from playing a third-place schedule, which gives them additional games against the Panthers, Cardinals, and Broncos.
Brock Purdy (+3500, DraftKings)
Risk .25 units to win 8.75 units. Placed March 3.
Purdy finished fourth in the MVP vote in his second season in 2023, and he owned -225 odds to win the award before he handed Lamar Jackson the award with a disastrous 4-INT performance against the Ravens on Christmas Day. He opened last season at +1800 odds to win the award before San Francisco’s season headed south in a hurry after three one-score losses in the first five weeks. Purdy’s 7.2% TD rate and his 9.2 YPA average from 2022-23 dipped to 4.4% and 8.5 YPA in 2024. He wasn’t helped by Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey combining for 11 games, and Deebo Samuel went from a star to a liability last season.
The 49ers traded Deebo on the first day of March, and the move could end up helping Purdy’s MVP candidacy. Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall don’t have Deebo’s name power, but more weekly reps for them could help Purdy and this passing attack. Samuel ranked 107th in A.S.S (-.008) out of 113 WRs who ran 200 routes last season, while Jennings ranked 26th (.103), and Pearsall came in 74th (.055). McCaffrey’s full-time role could also be reduced some in his age-29 season after last year’s injury-plagued campaign. CMC finished just in front of Purdy in MVP voting in 2023, but that split vote won’t happen again if Isaac Guerendo and Jordan Mason can siphon off 25-30% of the backfield work.
As I wrote for Jordan Love above, the MVP has come from a team that’s won 13+ games in six straight seasons, and 11+ victories are essentially mandatory. The 49ers won 12+ games in Purdy’s first two seasons as a starter before the franchise had a season from hell in 2024. San Francisco will benefit from playing a last-place schedule, which gives them unique games against the Giants, Bears, and Browns. They’re also scheduled for games against the AFC South and NFC South, which puts a 12+ win season well within reach with much better luck for Purdy and the 49ers in 2025.
Bets I Considered But Passed On
Jayden Daniels (+1100, BetMGM)
Why I like Daniels: He’s won the Heisman Trophy and the Offensive Rookie of the Year in back-to-back seasons, so why not add an MVP trophy to his haul in 2025? He set QB rookie records for rushing yards (891), completion percentage (69%), and team points per game (28.5). He also tied Ben Roethlisberger for the most wins as a rookie QB with 14 (postseason included), and he reset rookie QB postseason records in passing yards (822), passing TDs (5), and rushing yards (135). The Commanders are already all-in, maximizing his rookie contract by trading for Deebo Samuel before the start of the new league year.
Why I ultimately passed: Daniels didn’t miss a game during his rookie season, but he still has injury concerns because of his slight frame. His play also dipped in the middle of the season after he suffered a rib injury against the Panthers in Week 7. Daniels is in a similar spot to C.J. Stroud last off-season, who also surged to +1100 odds for the MVP off of his historic rookie season. Stroud ran into rougher waters in his sophomore season, and Daniels and the Commanders could experience some regression after posting a 10-2 record in games decided by 7 or fewer points (postseason included).
Jalen Hurts (+2000, BetMGM)
- Why I like Hurts: He owns longer odds than we typically see for a quarterback on the league’s reigning Super Bowl champions. The Eagles are likely to be the favorites to finish with the NFL’s best record once those odds come out later this year. Hurts authored a near-perfect performance to win the Super Bowl MVP in the last game of the 2024 season. He finished as the MVP runner-up to Patrick Mahomes in 2022, and he was the front-runner for the 2023 award in Week 12 before Philly’s season spiraled out of control.
- Why I ultimately passed: Hurts and HC Nick Sirianni tend to get very little credit for Philadelphia’s successes. The situation runs counter to just about every other team around the league where QBs and HCs are given too much credit for team successes. Saquon Barkley soaked up most of the credit for Philadelphia’s offense last season when he finished third in the MVP vote. He’d likely have to have a down season or miss significant time for Hurts to be a serious MVP candidate.
2025 NFL MVP Mid-Range and Longshots
The table is sorted by Shortest Odds to win the 2025 NFL MVP. You should target the Longest Odds to win the 2025 NFL MVP to maximize your potential return. I used DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), ESPN Bet (ESPN), and Bet365 (365) to find the best MVP odds as of March 3.
| PLAYER | LONGEST ODDS | SHORTEST ODDS |
| Kyler Murray (Ari) | +5500 (FD) | +2800 (DK) |
| Dak Prescott (Dal) | +5000 (DK) | +3300 (365) |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jax) | +5000 (ESPN) | +3300 (365) |
| Bo Nix (Den) | +7000 (FD) | +3500 (DK) |
| Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) | +5000 (DK/ESPN) | +4000 (MGM/365) |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +6600 (365/MGM) | +4500 (DK) |
| Saquon Barkley (Phi) | +5000 (all books) | +5000 (all books) |
| Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) | +12500 (MGM) | +5000 (DK) |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | +5500 (FD) | +5000 (multiple) |
| Michael Penix (Atl) | +8000 (FD) | +6000 (DK/CZR) |
| Sam Darnold (Min) | +7500 (ESPN) | +6600 (MGM/365) |
| Bryce Young (Car) | +10000 (ESPN) | +7000 (CZR) |
| Geno Smith (Sea) | +15000 (DK/CZR) | +8000 (FD/MGM/365) |
| J.J. McCarthy (Min) | +10000 (all books) | +10000 (all books) |
Bets I Considered But Passed On
Matthew Stafford (+5500, FanDuel)
- Why I like Stafford: He’s the best current quarterback to never really sniff the honor, which means he could get some lifetime achievement votes if the Rams finish near the top of the NFC standings. He threw for 41 TDs during the regular season in Los Angeles’ Super Bowl-winning season, but Cooper Kupp received a vote over him in the final year before the award went to ranked-choice voting. He threw for 21 TDs on 390 attempts (5.4%) in his final 12 games (postseason included) after Kupp and Puka Nacua returned to the lineup last season.
- Why I ultimately passed: He’s never really been close to winning the MVP, and it doesn’t help that he’s won double-digit games just four times in 16 seasons and 12+ victories once. He could be hard-pressed to reach 12+ wins this season since the Rams get unique games against the Eagles, Lions, and Ravens. Stafford’s receiving corps could take a small step back if they move on from Kupp.
Bo Nix (+7000, FanDuel)
- Why I like Nix: He surpassed all expectations as a rookie with 29 passing TDs and 4 rushing TDs on his way to finishing third in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. Plenty of the NFL’s best QBs, like Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson, made big leaps in Year Two. The Broncos actually have cap flexibility with Russell Wilson’s contract nearly off the books, which they’ll use to improve Nix’s weapons after Courtland Sutton did the heavy lifting for the passing game last season.
- Why I ultimately passed: How much of a Year Two bump will Nix get after coming to the NFL with an NCAA record 61 career starts? The Broncos need to win the AFC West to give Nix a realistic chance of winning the MVP, which hasn’t been done by a team not named the Chiefs since Denver did it in 2015. Nix wasn’t a highly thought of prospect despite being selected 12th overall, and he’s unlikely to get full credit for his performances while Sean Payton is calling the offense.
Geno Smith (+15000, FanDuel)
- Why I like Geno: These odds are far too long for a quarterback who has produced winning records in three straight seasons since becoming a full-time starter again in 2022. The Seahawks are up against the cap entering the off-season, but they should aggressively attack the offensive line in front of Smith with their available resources. New Orleans’ offense showed some early promise under new Seattle OC Klint Kubiak before the Saints’ offense collapsed because of injuries.
- Why I ultimately passed: Seattle may have to part ways with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and/or Noah Fant to get its cap situation under control, which could leave this passing game a little thin behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Geno will be working in his third different offense in as many seasons after the organization fired Ryan Grubb and Shane Waldron in back-to-back years.
MVP Winners From the Last Decade
Historic odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.com. They come from BetMGM from early September just before the start of the season.
| Year | MVP | Team | Odds (Rank) | Team Record |
| 2024 | Josh Allen | Buf | +850 (2nd) | 13-4 |
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson (x2) | Bal | +1400 (6th) | 13-4 |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes (x2) | KC | +800 (2nd) | 14-3 |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers (x4) | GB | +1100 (2nd) | 13-4 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers (x3) | GB | +3000 (t9th) | 13-3 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | Bal | +4000 (t14th) | 14-2 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | +3500 (21st) | 12-4 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady (x3) | NE | +385 (1st) | 13-3 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | Atl | +7500 (21st) | 11-5 |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | Car | +5200 (15th) | 15-1 |
Recent History Tells Us…
The MVP award is a quarterback-driven honor, as we saw once again last season with Josh Allen taking home the award. Saquon Barkley finished with 2005 rushing yards and 15 total TDs in 16 games, and he still finished third in voting with just 120 points out of 1050 in the ranked-choice system. Quarterbacks have won the MVP in 12 consecutive seasons, with Adrian Peterson being the last non-QB to capture the award in 2012. The position has claimed the MVP in 22 of the last 25 seasons, with running backs claiming the other three MVPs — Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), and Shaun Alexander (2005). It’s going to take a truly special season from a non-quarterback to win the award in the future. Even then, it’s not a guarantee to be a contender, as we saw when Cooper Kupp won the receiving triple crown in 2021 and received just 2% of the vote in a down year for quarterback candidates.
It’s also a prerequisite to play on a title contender, with the last 12 winners each reaching at least 11 regular-season victories. If we stretch out the sample to the last 25 seasons, 24 MVP winners have won at least 11 games. Peterson is once again the major outlier as a non-quarterback MVP on a team that won fewer than 11 games. Dozens of players across all positions have odds to win the MVP across multiple sportsbooks, but I’m focusing on quarterbacks on teams that have the potential to win 11+ games this season.
