2024 Week 4 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

First, a note on some of the tools I’m using here.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. vs. Colts WR Michael Pittman

Peezy has emerged as one of the premier lockdown cornerbacks in the league. In the Steelers’ first three games this year, he’s shadowed Drake London (65.2% route share), Cortland Sutton (68.8%), and Quentin Johnston (85.7%). To those receivers, he has allowed a grand total of 2 catches and 33 yards on 2 targets, and 1 catch for 0 yards on 3 targets to all others. (Porter aligned over QJ on his touchdown last week, but we did not chart him as responsible for the score because he passed him off, and the Steelers busted the coverage.) Quarterbacks haven’t even sniffed trying to throw the ball to Peezy’s side. I don’t think that will be an issue for Anthony Richardson — the young QB trusts his arm to a fault. But the problem for Pittman in this matchup is that Richardson is not only worst among QBs in off-target throws (29%) and turnover-worthy throws (9.5%), but he’s 2nd-to-last among non-injured starting quarterbacks in dropbacks (83, ahead of only Derek Carr). Pittman, who was 9th among all players with 151 targets last season, is 27th this year (20). That, plus the matchup with Porter, makes him a boom-or-bust (and mostly bust) WR4 for me this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Pat Surtain vs. Jets WR Garrett Wilson

Surtain is the most certain shadow corner in the NFL — pun intended. If the opposing team has a primary perimeter receiver, he will follow. He’s shadowed DK Metcalf (95.8% route share), Mike Evans (71.9%), and George Pickens (71.4%). To those three receivers, he’s given up a grand total of 5 catches for 53 yards on 7 targets. And it’s worth noting, for sure, that Wilson hasn’t yet hit his chemistry with Aaron Rodgers — Rodgers claims that teams are trying to take Wilson away. It’s also worth noting that these two faced off in Week 5 of last season, with Surtain holding Wilson to 2/22 receiving on 5 targets in his primary coverage. There’s a big difference between Rodgers and Zach Wilson at quarterback, of course, but this remains a nasty matchup. I’m viewing Wilson as a low-end WR2.

SHADOW ALERT! Packers CB Jaire Alexander vs. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson

As we predicted, Alexander shadowed Calvin Ridley last week, lining up across from him on 74.1% of his routes. But in another game of meme-worthy turnovers for QB Will Levis, Ridley went belly up, catching just 1 of 3 targets for 9 yards in Alexander’s primary coverage. Last year, Jefferson was active for only one game against the Packers, catching 5 passes for 59 yards on 10 targets, but in that game, Alexander actually followed Jordan Addison around more. These two have had some legendary battles in the past, however. In Week 1 of 2022, Jefferson went off for 9/184/2 on 11 targets, a stat line Alexander would later call “a fluke.” And to Alexander’s credit, he proved it in Week 17 — Jefferson had just 1 catch for 15 yards on 5 targets. Of course, you’re not benching Jefferson even if he’s going against prime Darrell Green. And AJ Brown cooked Jaire in Week 1, too. But it’s more of a notice to get your popcorn ready.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez vs. 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk

In this column last week, I projected that Aiyuk would go off in a matchup with Tre’Davious White and the overmatched Rams secondary. Instead, Aiyuk ceded the way to Jauan Jennings, who went off for 46.5 FP. But it was through no fault of Aiyuk, whose separation win rate of 46.9% was the highest our team has charted in any game this year, and about which Kyle Shanahan discussed in his press conference this week. Suffice it to say I think Jerod Mayo will notice Aiyuk’s ability to get open on film, even if he didn’t produce in the box score last week, and choose to shadow him with Gonzalez, who has faced each of his three opponents’ top WRs this year on at least 84% of routes (Ja’Marr Chase, DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson). But that hasn’t meant universal success for Gonzalez, who gave up a touchdown to both Metcalf and Wilson in his primary coverage. I still contend that Gonzalez is an impressive player who is holding his own against this absolute gauntlet he’s been dealt so far this year, but I also think Aiyuk will get going sooner rather than later based on how well he’s been getting open. We’re still ranking Aiyuk as a WR1 this week, as I believe the squeaky wheel will get greased.

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb vs. Giants DB/LB Isaiah Simmons

I think it’s important to be honest with myself when I’m writing a WR/CB Matchup column, and still acknowledge that this binary form of analysis can be way, way overblown. And sometimes, I like to drive onto Narrative Street. I’m not exactly breaking industry norms here by predicting Lamb to go absolutely wild on Thursday night, given the Giants have injuries to both CBs Adoree’ Jackson and Andru Phillips, the latter of whom is the Giants’ primary slot CB. That means Simmons — yes, the former linebacker — is projected to be the primary matchup for Lamb in this game. Moreover, Lamb is taking ownership for the Cowboys’ incredibly disappointing loss to the Ravens last week, which included some concerning sideline antics. The matchup is one that Lamb should torch, and QB Dak Prescott hasn’t lost a game to the Giants since the Barack Obama administration. I think Lamb goes for over 100 yards on Thursday night.

Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Jaguars DBs

The Jaguars are in deeeeeeeeppppp crap, and Doug Pederson is the odds-on favorite head coach to be fired this year. Most of the focus is on the completely uninspiring play of QB Trevor Lawrence and his lack of development, but really, the defense has been a complete embarrassment. Jacksonville got absolutely smoked by Buffalo last Monday night, including receiving touchdowns from three different Bills who had yet to score this year (Dalton Kincaid, Ty Johnson, Keon Coleman). First of all, Jacksonville has run Cover 1 on over 53% of its defensive snaps this year, a schematic matchup that Collins absolutely destroys — a 3rd-best 4.61 YPRR against the coverage since CJ Stroud landed in Houston. Moreover, Collins is currently 8th among all WRs and TEs with 112 yards after the catch, after finishing 8th in the same category last season. Jacksonville has allowed a league-high 516 YAC this season. The Jaguars are still down top CB Tyson Campbell, and the Texans likely won’t have WR Tank Dell (chest, wrist). I love the matchup for Collins especially because Stefon Diggs has struggled compared to Collins against Cover 1, but I think both players can go nuts in this matchup as the Texans look to rebound from a blowout loss to the Vikings last week. We project that Collins will run most of his routes on Montaric Brown, who surrendered Coleman’s first career TD last week.

UPDATE: Collins (hamstring) was limited in Thursday practice, a potential indication that he got hurt during the session. Monitor his status Friday, but this isn’t good news.

Packers WR Jayden Reed vs. Vikings CB Byron Murphy

There’s a good chance that Packers QB Jordan Love plays this week, and while Malik Willis has done more than an admirable job filling in, the Packers’ passing game — and their fantasy receiving production — is going to get a big boost when Love is back. While Minnesota’s defense has been generally excellent, including shutting down the Texans last week, the place where I think the Packers benefit this week is in the slot with Jayden Reed. First of all, Reed is #1 among all WRs in FP/RR in his last nine games with Love under center. Secondly, Murphy — the Vikings’ primary slot defender — has allowed 196 yards in his primary coverage, most among any DB who aligns in the slot over 10% of the time. Reed torched the Vikings for 10/172/2 on 14 targets in two games last year, and Murphy does not appear to be the kind of defender who can slow him down. I’ll be hammering Reed props and throwing him in DFS lineups.

Cardinals WRs vs. Commanders DBs

Commanders top perimeter CB Benjamin St-Juste has allowed a 3rd-most 218 receiving yards and a 2nd-most 3 TD in his primary coverage this season, which bodes exceptionally well for Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson this week. Meanwhile, rookie Mike Sainristl has given up a touchdown in every game this year — Chris Godwin in Week 1, Wan’Dale Robinson in Week 2, and Ja’Marr Chase in Week 3. Interestingly, Sainristl was the Commanders’ primary slot defender in Weeks 1 and 2 before shifting almost exclusively outside in Week 3 against the Bengals’ tough perimeter duo — we’ll see his alignment in Week 4, which could affect Greg Dortch’s projection (Noah Igbinoghene was the slot CB against the Bengals last week). It’s clear the Commanders are still trying to feel their way through this process, but this is a very exploitable matchup for Harrison and Wilson in a game with the highest projected total on the slate. Wilson, who caught 8 passes for 64 yards on 9 targets against the Lions last week, might be an appealing cheap DFS lineup filler.

Bengals WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins vs. Panthers DBs

Per Fantasy Points Data, only two NFL teams have multiple DBs who have surrendered 2+ TDs in their primary coverage — the Commanders, whom I just discussed, and the Panthers. Both of Carolina’s perimeter CBs — Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson — have allowed 2 TD, while also picking off a pass each. The Bengals are 0-3, but that wasn’t the fault of QB Joe Burrow last week, as he put down a truly heroic performance while his defense couldn’t get off the field against Jayden Daniels. The Panthers now have a pulse offensively with Andy Dalton at QB, which could mean Cincy will have to keep its foot on the gas pedal again this week, and opposing QBs have shown a clear willingness to attack the Panthers’ secondary. I view Chase and Higgins as must-start in season-long leagues, and clearly positive DFS options.

Seahawks WRs vs. Lions DBs

Only one team in the NFL has two corners in our top-15 of charted receiving yards allowed — the Lions. Carlton Davis (235 yards, 2nd) and Terrion Arnold (178, 7th) have had a little bit of a rough go so far, and now they draw a matchup with one of the league’s premier receiver trios — DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett. Per our numbers, Metcalf and Lockett will benefit the most from the Davis and Arnold matchups as the Seahawks’ two primary perimeter receivers. Metcalf is an obvious start, but maybe some Lockett props are in order in a game with a 46.5-point total, 3rd-highest on the Week 4 slate.

Bears WRs vs. Rams CB Tre’Davious White

White didn’t shadow last week, which I advised them against anyway. But the Rams still got torched — just by Jauan Jennings, not by Brandon Aiyuk. Nonetheless, White still did his part in getting toasted, as he surrendered one of Jennings’ 3 TD receptions, meaning he’s now been beaten for 5 TD this year — no other DB has given up more than 3. His 255 yards allowed are also most in the NFL. The Bears’ offense is brutal, coordinated by the clueless Shane Waldron, but at the least, Caleb Williams was able to get the ball to Rome Odunze and DJ Moore last week. This is a glorious matchup for the perimeter guys if Waldron isn’t an active detriment to the team, which I can’t guarantee.

Jets DBs vs. Broncos WRs

It was great to see Bo Nix get going last week against the Bucs, which was also the first good game for Courtland Sutton this year (7/68 on 11 targets). Unfortunately, Sutton could be back to the nether realm this week, with a matchup against perhaps the league’s best perimeter CB duo in Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. I’m sure I’ll have better options in Week 4.

Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie vs. Chargers slot WR Ladd McConkey

McConkey could well emerge soon — he doubled up any other Charger with a 30% target share in Week 3, and his ASS was 3rd among all WRs on the week, as well. So I’d be looking, potentially, to acquire McConkey in a deal, while selling high on Quentin Johnston (who scored on a busted coverage last week). But I think waiting an extra week could be prudent. The Chargers might not have QB Justin Herbert (high ankle) this week, and McDuffie is one of the NFL’s premier slot CBs. Don’t overthink this one and downgrade the Good Ladd.