Week 3 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But, this early in the season, there’s so much noise in our line matchup data that we’re not even going to publish it to our tools until Week 4. And now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

First, a note on some of the tools I’m using here.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Pat Surtain vs. Bucs WR Mike Evans

Surtain has shadowed each of the first two weeks, holding both DK Metcalf (3/29, 4 targets, 95.8% shadow rate) and George Pickens (1/16, 2 targets, 71.4% shadow rate) in check in his primary coverage. Evans, of course, is ageless, but the Buccaneers certainly didn’t seem to be lying when they said that Chris Godwin would play the “Cooper Kupp role” in Liam Coen’s McShanahan offense this year. Evans (3/42 on 6 targets) took a massive backseat to Godwin (7/117/1 on 8 targets) in Detroit last week, and it’s certainly reasonable to anticipate the Bucs could choose to do the same with Evans drawing the coverage of, perhaps, the NFL’s premier shadow CB. Evans has earned the benefit of the doubt over the years to not be considered worse than a WR2, but I prefer Godwin this week in both redraft and DFS, given the matchup (though Ja’Quan McMillian is no slouch in the slot).

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter, Jr. vs. Chargers WR Quentin Johnston

Look at QJ! Written off as a bust all off-season to now appearing in my WR/CB shadow report. Johnson’s run just under 90% of his routes out wide this season, which makes him by far the Chargers’ most-used player in that department — Ladd McConkey has a 66% slot rate, while Josh Palmer has a 40% slot rate (and was limited with an injury last week). So if that trend holds and the Steelers decide to shadow, Johnston will draw Peezy’s coverage. That’s bad news — In Weeks 1 and 2, Peezy aligned over Drake London and Courtland Sutton on virtually all of their perimeter routes, and held them to 2 catches for 33 yards total in his primary coverage. And though Johnston’s 38.5% first-read target share is double that of McConkey (19.2%), most of his production has come on quick hitters, a la Zay Flowers as a rookie. I’m not anywhere close to ready to trust Johnston as a matchup-proof fantasy WR, and I consider him a low-end WR3 this week against one of the best corners in the game.

SHADOW ALERT! Texans CB Derek Stingley vs. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson

Major props to our Fantasy Points Data charting team — specifically Steve O’Rourke — who highlighted Stingley as a potential shadow corner in Week 2 against DJ Moore, despite the fact that for the majority of his career, he’s played exclusively LCB. Stingley lined up across of Moore on 67.4% of his routes, and Moore mostly got the best of Stingley — he put up 4/52 on 6 targets in Stingley’s coverage, despite Caleb Williams posting a league-low catchable throw rate through two weeks (63.6%). Judging by Stingley’s usage last week, we’re projecting he’ll shadow Jefferson this week — presuming Jefferson (quad contusion) plays, as expected. I don’t need to convince you that no shadow matchup should scare you away from using JJ, but note well that Sam Darnold’s 86% catchable throw rate is behind only Derek Carr so far this year. Ride the Darnold hot streak for as long as it lasts… and, as Jefferson has consistently proven throughout his career, he’ll produce even if Darnold regresses.

SHADOW ALERT! Rams CB Tre’Davious White vs. 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk

As fantasy players, we tend to approach “Shadow CB” situations as a negative, dating back to the time of Darrelle Revis Island (and, for those who have been playing as long John Hansen, anyone Deion Sanders was matching up with). But I consider this week’s matchup for Aiyuk more of a Peter Pan situation — the shadow is actively trying to escape. In the first two weeks of the season, White has aligned over his opposition’s primary outside receiver on both sides of the formation, though I’d consider neither a “true” shadow situation — 52.2% shadow rate on Marvin Harrison, and a 42.9% rate on Jameson Williams. And our data team has charted White as having given up 186 receiving yards and 4 receiving TD on the year — both the most in the NFL. White has been targeted 8 times and has allowed 6.1 PPR FP per target — in other words, every two targets thrown in White’s direction have allowed production that would be equivalent to 12.2 FPG… which would rank right behind Jaylen Waddle for WR33 this season. With Deebo Samuel (calf) out and George Kittle (hamstring) hobbled, the Rams might view White as their best resistance against Aiyuk. I would advise them against that. I think Aiyuk has his first big game of 2024 this week… both because of the matchup, and because Brock Purdy has nowhere else to go.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Jets WR Garrett Wilson

Last week, I opined that it was a hell of a sign of confidence in Gonzalez that the Patriots trusted him to shadow some of the league’s top WRs despite having just five NFL games under his belt. But in Week 2, we were shown that Gonzalez is still, effectively, a rookie. DK Metcalf took the youngster to school, posting 5/83/1 on 9 targets in Gonzalez’s primary coverage (84.1% shadow rate — it is worth noting that our charters viewed DK’s 56-yard TD on the opening drive as Gonzalez’s fault, while others might have considered it a miscommunication). Nonetheless, the fact that the Pats have directed Gonzalez to follow Metcalf and Ja’Marr Chase everywhere — including into the slot — the first two weeks of the season indicates to me that they will do the same with Wilson. Wilson has gotten off to a slow-ish start, with just 10 catches for 117 yards in two games with Aaron Rodgers this year (their chemistry still isn’t where it needs to be), and he posted just 2/35 on 3 targets against L’Jarius Sneed’s primary coverage last week, though it wasn’t what I’d consider a true “shadow” situation — Sneed followed Wilson on just 55.2% of his routes (including 3 slot routes). Wilson’s volume so far this year has been disappointing, which is enough for me to consider him a WR2 this week, and though Gonzalez isn’t yet a total shutdown guy, I think he’s an emerging tough matchup. You might agree, especially if you don’t put the blame for Metcalf’s long TD on Gonzalez.

SHADOW ALERT! Falcons CB AJ Terrell vs. Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy

The Falcons use Terrell to shadow primary outside WRs — he aligned over George Pickens on 80% of his routes in Week 1 (2/52 receiving on 2 targets in Terrell’s coverage), and 58.1% of DeVonta Smith’s routes in Week 2 (virtually all of Smith’s outside routes — 3/29 receiving on 4 targets allowed). Worthy might not be the Falcons’ ideal shadow option here, considering Rashee Rice, to this point, is a far more dangerous receiver than Worthy, but Worthy runs about two-thirds of his routes outside, compared to just 50% for Rice. Moreover, the Chiefs might want to run Rice inside even more in Week 3 to avoid a potential Terrell matchup. Dee Alford is no slouch in the slot, but I think the Chiefs would rather take their chances there. Worthy has touched the ball just 3 times in each of the Chiefs’ first two games. The difference is he scored twice in Week 1 — including one on a coverage bust. I’ll never discount someone with Worthy’s speed in this offense, but this is a potentially tough matchup with Terrell, and his role isn’t yet a large one. He’s a boom-or-bust FLEX.

Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Lions CB Carlton Davis

The Lions don’t shadow their CBs — they play sides, generally — which means Davis has been their LCB on 83% of snaps so far this year. And while the Cardinals move Harrison all around the formation, he’s aligned as the RWR on 50% of his snaps, which would predominantly place him on Davis’ side of the field. Our data team has charted Davis as having allowed 182 receiving yards (2nd-most) and 13 receptions (most) so far this year. Meanwhile, on the other side of the formation is rookie Terrion Arnold, who held his own last week in a tough matchup with the Bucs, but still would have his work cut out for him with MHJ. Curiously, both of Harrison’s TDs last week came when he was aligned at LWR against dusty Tre White, but I think Harrison made a statement that he’s a force to be reckoned with last week. In a potential high-scoring gae

Raiders WR Davante Adams vs. Panthers CBs

The Panthers are a mess, and some of their woes in the secondary have been covered by the fact that their first two opponents: 1) have run the ball all over the field (their 399 rush yards allowed are 2nd-most in the NFL) and 2) haven’t had to throw the ball in the second half (17 second-half pass attempts against the Panthers are 2nd-fewest in the NFL). But Jaycee Horn — whom we view as Adams’ most likely matchup here, though he doesn’t shadow — has allowed 101 receiving yards and 2 TD on just 6 targets against him. Among CBs with 10 or more coverage snaps this season, Horn has allowed a 5th-most 2.53 YPRR, and a 3rd-most 4.2 FP/coverage snap. I do take Raiders coach Antonio Pierce at his word when he talks about getting their run game going this week (especially since Carolina is down star DT Derrick Brown), but I also believe the Panthers will be a much more competitive team with Andy Dalton at QB… which should significantly increase the number of dropbacks teams will have against them in the second half. I view Adams as a low-end WR1 in this matchup.

Bengals WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins vs. Commanders DBs

The 0-2 Bengals desperately need a win, and though QB Joe Burrow played far better in Week 2 than in Week 1, a (correctly called, but annoying) pass interference bailed the Chiefs out of a 4th-and-16 hole and set up a game-winning field goal. The good news for Burrow is it looks as if he’ll get Higgins (hamstring) — who practiced Thursday — back for Week 3. And it’s not a moment too soon for fantasy, as Cincinnati draws a matchup with a Washington secondary that has allowed a 127.6 passer rating, 6 passing TD, and 9.58 ANY/A, league-highs in every category. Chase is a lock, and if Higgins goes, I’m locking him into my lineup, as well.

Titans WR Calvin Ridley vs. Packers CB Jaire Alexander

Ridley and QB Will Levis have had a rough time getting on the same page this year. First, Levis missed Ridley for multiple long balls in Week 1, including a walk-in TD (on star Bears CB Jaylon Johnson, nonetheless). Then, in Week 2, Levis made a perfect throw on a 3rd-and-10 slot fade that Ridley dropped — it would have been a long gain and potentially a TD. And then — finally — Ridley made a ridiculous 40-yard TD grab on Sauce Gardner that seemed to even out all the bad juju. This week, Ridley gets a primary matchup (though not a projected shadow) with Packers LCB Jaire Alexander, who got absolutely cooked by AJ Brown in Week 1… before facing a Colts team with a struggling Anthony Richardson in Week 2. A couple of added bonuses for Ridley — he scored on a jet sweep last week, and Jordan Love might play for the Packers, which could make this a higher-scoring environment than if Malik Willis played. I like Ridley as an upside WR3 this week.

Bears DBs vs. Colts WRs

The Bears have two of the best corners in the NFL that we’ve charted in terms of raw production allowed — slot CB Kyler Gordon (4 catches, 33 yards allowed on 5 targets) and boundary CB Jaylon Johnson (2 catches, 32 yards allowed on 7 targets, though one was the missed Will Levis/Calvin Ridley connection I mentioned). The Bears don’t shadow with Johnson — rather, they typically align him to the field (the wide area of the field, opposite the hash with the ball), trusting him with more coverage space. Based on alignment data, though, that would make Johnson the most likely matchup for Michael Pittman, while Gordon would draw a lot of rookie AD Mitchell. With Anthony Richardson highly volatile and Josh Downs (ankle) angling to play this week, I’m not sure I feel good about Pittman rebounding from his slow start (7/52 receiving on 15 targets in two games) this week. He’s a low-end WR3 for me, as I’m not sure Richardson can pick on Tyrique Stevenson the way CJ Stroud did.

Jets DBs vs. Patriots WRs

I don’t think I’m breaking any news here… but I wouldn’t expect the Pats receivers to go off on Thursday night. They have totaled — totaled, meaning all of their WR production combined — 24.5 FP in two games this year. For comparison, 11 individual WRs have scored more than 24.5 FP in a single game this year, despite receiving production being down across the board. I’ll take Sauce Gardner and the boys to win this matchup.