Week 2 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But, this early in the season, there’s so much noise in our line matchup data that we’re not even going to publish it to our tools until Week 4. And now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

First, a note on some of the tools I’m using here.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Texans CB Derek Stingley vs. Bears WR DJ Moore

I will begin by saying that Stingley did not shadow last week against Indianapolis — he lined up on the left side of the formation on nearly every coverage snap, so he saw all of Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and AD Mitchell. This was very similar usage for Stingley as 2023, when he was almost always the Texans’ LCB. However, Stingley did shadow twice last year, matching up with Amari Cooper and Zay Flowers in the playoffs. So in Houston’s biggest games, they trusted Stingley to take on the opposition’s best. Overall, Stingley was excellent in those two shadow situations, allowing a total of 2/22 receiving on 4 targets in his primary coverage. But Stingley had a rough 2024 debut. He was on the receiving end of Alec Pierce’s ridiculous 60-yard TD throw from Anthony Richardson (let’s be honest, most corners would have been beaten on such an insane throw), while he was the primary defender on Richardson’s two errantly thrown deep balls to AD Mitchell, one of which would have been a walk-in touchdown (and looked as though it might have been busted coverage). As for this matchup, we wouldn’t be projecting a potential shadow if the Bears had their full arsenal of weapons, but Rome Odunze (knee) is almost certainly out, while Keenan Allen (heel) is questionable to go. So it’s possible that the Texans try to take Moore out and force rookie QB Caleb Williams — who was atrocious last week — to try to go elsewhere with the ball. Nonetheless, this situation is far from certain, and Stingley’s game last week isn’t going to scare me off of using Moore.

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter, Jr vs. Broncos WR Courtland Sutton

I’m not sure a QB as immobile as Kirk Cousins last week could have had an effective game against anyone, but it sure didn’t help that Peezy Jr. put the clamps on Drake London. Porter shadowed Atlanta’s WR1 on 65.2% of his routes, allowing just a single reception for 7 yards in his primary coverage. That was a continuation from last year, when he shadowed eight different WR1s to a 50% route share or more… allowing zero TDs in his primary coverage. So I’m confident in saying that Peezy will shadow Sutton, and that’s not great news for Sutton.

The good news for Courtland? His 158 air yards in Week 1 were 2nd-most in the NFL (Amari Cooper, 178), and his 21.4 XFP ranked him 3rd among WRs and TEs behind Cooper Kupp and Zay Flowers. The bad news is that rookie QB Bo Nix was atrocious in his debut… meaning Sutton posted just 7.8 actual FP. The role was fantastic for Sutton, but this matchup, plus the fact that a rookie is pulling the trigger, makes me view him as a tenuous WR3.

SHADOW ALERT! Falcons CB AJ Terrell vs. Eagles WR AJ Brown

Terrell shadowed George Pickens on 80% of the Steelers star’s routes last week. Terrell allowed 2 catches for 52 yards in his primary coverage, though Pickens almost had another deep catch on Terrell and a safety in Cover 2 — Justin Fields made an inaccurate throw and Pickens couldn’t haul it in. The Falcons almost always trust Terrell with their toughest matchups, but he wasn’t an eraser last week or in 2023, when he gave up touchdowns to the likes of Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley, and DeAndre Hopkins. Meanwhile, Brown is coming off a big game against the Packers, in which he torched former Pro Bowler Jaire Alexander for 4/108/1 in Alexander’s primary coverage. In no way am I downgrading AJB here, but if you think Terrell might have the upper hand on him for whatever reason, upgrade DeVonta Smith — Smith ran 75% of his routes from the slot in Week 1, by far the highest rate of his career, under new OC Kellen Moore. Dee Alford is a solid slot CB, but he won’t be able to hang with the Slim Reaper.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain vs. Steelers WR George Pickens

Pickens draws his second consecutive shadow of the season after opening the year with AJ Terrell in Week 1. Surtain offers a much more difficult matchup, in my opinion — he’s simply a better player than Terrell (which is no knock on Terrell). Surtain shadowed DK Metcalf on 96% of his routes last week and allowed just 3 catches for 29 yards on 4 targets (though PFF did not feel as if Surtain had a particularly strong game). Surtain had some uncharacteristic big plays allowed in 2023, most notably one to Robbie Chosen in that infamous game against Miami in which the Broncos’ defense completely quit. Nonetheless, the Broncos turned the page after that, and they’ve since made Surtain one of the highest-paid corners in football. It’s also worth noting that the longest reception Surtain allowed to Metcalf last week — 12 yards — came across the middle. (See below on why that probably won’t happen with Justin Fields at QB this week.) Pickens is still the Steelers’ entire pass game, but I think this matchup justifies downgrading him to a WR3.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Seahawks WR DK Metcalf

Metcalf had just 3 catches for 29 yards on 4 targets in Week 1, all against Broncos CB Pat Surtain. Meanwhile, the Patriots trusted their second-year stud Gonzalez to follow Ja’Marr Chase everywhere — he lined up across from Chase on 90% of his routes, including 10 slot routes for Chase. A corner following an alpha WR inside is rare in this day and age of the NFL, especially a corner who has played a grand total of 5 NFL games. Gonzalez allowed just 15 yards on 3 catches to Chase in his primary coverage last week — Chase’s longest reception, a 28-yarder in the fourth quarter, came down the middle of the field in what looked to me to be pure Tampa-2 coverage, with Gonzalez nowhere near the play. I’m not telling you to bench Metcalf, especially since Chase was limited with an illness (and contractitis), but this is more of a reminder that Gonzalez is putting the NFL on notice. I think it’s fair to downgrade DK to a WR3.

SHADOW ALERT! Colts CB Jaylon Jones vs. Packers WR Romeo Doubs

The Colts trust Jones — a 2023 seventh-round pick — a ton. In Week 1, he shadowed Nico Collins on virtually all of Collins’ perimeter routes, and played mostly LCB when Collins went inside. This is somewhat of a new development — the most Jones followed a receiver last year Ja’Marr Chase in Week 14 (1 catch for 14 yards in his primary coverage). It’s possible the Colts saw Jones take a big leap over the summer and have a gem on their hands, but from a fantasy football perspective, he allowed production in his primary coverage — 7 catches for 95 yards on 9 targets against Houston last week. If he shadows this week against the Packers, our guess is it will be Doubs, the perimeter receiver for Green Bay who goes inside the least (just 15% of his routes in Week 1). Jones doesn’t scare me off of using Doubs. Malik Willis — 0 TD passes in three career starts — does. It’s a massive downgrade for this entire Packer passing game.

Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Commanders secondary

The Commanders just got absolutely crapped on by Baker Mayfield and the Bucs’ receivers — 15 catches, 195 yards, 4 touchdowns, good for 58.4 DraftKings FP allowed. The Commanders moved their DBs all over, and it didn’t matter. Benjamin St-Juste allowed 2 TD to Mike Evans, rookie Mike Sainristil allowed one to Chris Godwin, and they allowed rookie Jalen McMillan to wal in for a 32-yard score on a miscommunication/bust. Meanwhile, second-year CB Emmanuel Forbes — who famously was humbled on national TV by AJ Brown last year — is dealing with a wrist injury (he will play, per Dan Quinn). Meanwhile, the rookie Nabers had a solid 5-catch, 66-yard debut in Week 1 as the only New York Giant who was worth a damn on offense. Yes, Daniel Jones stinks, but if you drafted Nabers in the top 60 picks of a fantasy draft and aren’t using him this week, why did you draft him at all? Additionally, DFS players looking for an El Cheapo lineup filler could look to Wan’Dale Robinson against the rookie Sainristil — Robinson was targeted 12 times last week.

Chargers WRs vs. Panthers DBs

Imagine how down bad you have to be to be trash-talked — justifiably! — by Derek Carr. The Panthers busted coverages all over the field in Week 1, and allowed Carr to throw for 3 TD in a 37-point loss despite Chris Olave catching just 2 passes for 11 yards. This could be a scary game to lean on for fantasy, given we know Jim Harbaugh wants to play Big Dumb Football and trust his run game (and the Chargers are favored, which should allow for it) but I wouldn’t mind going to the well with Ladd McConkey or Josh Palmer in DFS for a cheap lineup addition.

Browns WRs vs. Jaguars DBs

The Jaguars just put their best CB — Tyson Campbell — on IR with a hamstring injury. Their primary perimeter CB, dusty-ass Ronald Darby, got absolutely smoked against the Dolphins last week, allowing 5 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown in his primary coverage. This is a matchup in which Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy should, in theory, feast. Of course, that would require Deshaun Watson to play well, and that’s one hell of a leap of faith right now. Are you braver than me in large-field DFS tournaments?

Jets DBs vs. Titans WRs

The Jets’ defense was a big issue against the 49ers in Week 1, but it wasn’t really the fault of the secondary. Brock Purdy played mistake-free football, but he threw for just 231 touchdown-less yards as the Jets' run defense got absolutely embarrassed by Jordan Mason and Deebo Samuel. Moreover, the Jets defender we had dinged for the most receiving yards allowed was actually LB Quincy Williams, who had a tough draw with George Kittle. Meanwhile, new Titans WR Calvin Ridley was able to get separation… but QB Will Levis wasn’t able to take advantage. Jets defenders typically play sides — elite CB Sauce Gardner plays LCB, and that is the side Ridley primarily aligned on in his Tennessee debut. DeAndre Hopkins played just 17 snaps as he works his way back from a summer knee injury, and while he’s expected to play more in Week 2, a full workload doesn’t seem to be in the cards. I think Tennessee coach Brian Callahan is going to look at the film from last week and try to lean on Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears to try to get Levis more comfortable. Hopkins is unusable until further notice, while Ridley is a boom-or-bust WR3.