2024 Week 16 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. vs. Ravens WR Rashod Bateman

Porter didn’t have a full shadow of AJ Brown last week, as the Eagles' stud receiver occasionally moved into the slot and around the formation for what amounted to be — as predicted last week — a squeaky-wheel game. Porter himself was responsible for 3 catches and 48 yards to Brown, though he also forced the only three incompletions Jalen Hurts threw his way.

This week, the matchup should be much easier for Peezy. As he did in Week 11, we’re predicting a shadow of Bateman. In that game, Porter aligned over Bateman on 73.3% of his total routes, and wasn’t even targeted when he was the closest defender to him. Since then, Bateman has gone on a little bit of a hot streak — he’s outscored Zay Flowers in three of the Ravens’ last four games, a span over which Bateman is tied for WR38 with 11.8 FPG. And now, Baltimore seems to have banished the disgruntled Diontae Johnson from the building, so there is even less competition for snaps.

But Porter absolutely stifled Bateman the last time out. Bateman’s first-read target share pales compared to what we’d think an alpha perimeter WR1 should have. And the Steelers play a lot of man coverage, while Bateman does a lot of his best work against zone.

This is a bounceback week for Flowers, and I have Bateman as a WR4.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Bills WR Amari Cooper

As predicted last week, Gonzalez shadowed Marvin Harrison and stymied him, holding him to 1 catch for 23 yards on 5 targets in his primary coverage. Of course, Harrison has bigger issues right now than shadow matchups, but a tough draw with Gonzalez simply exacerbated those issues.

Cooper has a much longer track record than Harrison, but he also has his own usage issues. He had 14 targets in the Bills’ loss to the Rams in Week 14… and then zero (0.0!!!!) in their shootout victory over the Lions in Week 15. He ran a route on just 40.5% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks with Keon Coleman back in the lineup, which was fourth among Bills WRs alone (he also ran a lower route share than both TEs Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid).

It’s clear that Cooper’s impact as a rotational WR for the Bills is felt more on the actual NFL gridiron than in the box score. And I can’t imagine trusting him in a fantasy playoff matchup given his usage, regardless of a shadow draw with Gonzalez.

I much prefer Keon Coleman’s draw with Jonathan Jones and can sign off on him as a DFS dart throw, while Khalil Shakir will be popular in this slot funnel.

SHADOW ALERT! Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey vs. 49ers WR Jauan Jennings

It’s been hard to nail down a Ramsey shadow. Somewhat surprisingly, he followed Garrett Wilson all over the field in Week 14 — lining up across from him on 92.3% of his routes. And Wilson, uh, kind of kicked his ass, putting up 4 catches for 97 yards in Ramsey’s primary coverage.

Nonetheless, the fact that he followed Wilson made us think he’d do the same with Nico Collins in Week 15. That was mostly the case. While he aligned across from Collins on just 46.4% of his routes, he actually shadowed him on 13 of 17 perimeter routes — 76.5%. Collins scored 2 touchdowns, but neither was with Ramsey as the closest defender (both were extended plays by CJ Stroud with zone coverage in the tight red zone). In fact, Ramsey didn’t allow Collins to catch a pass as the closest defender.

So the question this week is just how many routes Jennings will run from the perimeter. That ratio was at just 47.6% in Week 14, but up to 66.7% in Week 15. Given that Jennings is by far the 49ers’ best threat at WR this year, I would anticipate Ramsey aligning over him on his perimeter routes. That’s a tough matchup for Jennings. But given how much he moves inside and how much zone the Dolphins play, I’m merely downgrading him into the WR2 range.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II vs. Chargers WR Quentin Johnston

Surtain played just a single snap the last time these two teams played in October, leaving with a concussion. While he picked up a minor ankle injury in Denver’s Week 15 win over the Colts, he’ll play on Thursday night.

I don’t have to go too far to tell you that’s a really bad draw for Johnston, who is likely to see Surtain whenever he lines up on the perimeter, which he does on a massive 90% of his routes.

I think Johnston has a high probability of getting completely erased on Thursday night, and I’d be looking elsewhere for my semifinal lineups.

All Systems Go

Rams WR Cooper Kupp vs. Jets slot CB Isaiah Oliver

I’m not going to sit here and say that I predicted Kupp would lay a dinosaur egg in Week 15, but I did write up his matchup with 49ers slot CB Deommodore Lenoir as a particularly nasty one last week. That, combined with awful conditions, led to one of the biggest fantasy disappointments of the year.

Well, I feel the opposite this week. Over the last five weeks, the Jets are the 3rd-biggest slot funnel defense in the NFL, allowing +7.1 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs, compared to a mediocre +2.1 allowed to opposing outside WRs. While that’s certainly no reason to bench Puka Nacua, it boosts Kupp’s stock quite a bit.

Moreover, primary slot CB Michael Carter II left last week’s game against the Jags with a back injury, which could mean the backup Oliver will have to face this challenge.

I’m not sure this is a full-on AJ Brown “squeaky wheel” spot for Kupp, but I love him in DFS at his cheapest price in years, and I’ve already hit the “over” on his player prop for the week.

Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Falcons outside CBs

No, Drew Lock is not good. He might even be worse than bad! But at least he targets Nabers.

In Lock’s two starts this year, in Weeks 13 and 14, Nabers has 21 targets and a 36.7% 1st-read target share. Those are actually down from Nabers’ full-season numbers, but would still rank first among WRs in per-game targets and second among WRs in first-read target share if over the full season. So it’s clear Lock understands the assignment.

And by the numbers, the matchup couldn’t be better this week. The Falcons have allowed the most schedule-adjusted FPG (+13.8) to opposing perimeter WRs over the last five weeks. And perhaps Atlanta will force the Giants into throwing the ball more with Michael Penix operating their offense instead of a washed Kirk Cousins.

Nabers’ low YPC with Lock in there gives me some pause, but he scored last week for the first time since Week 3, and the matchup is good enough to consider him a strong WR2.

Bears WR Rome Odunze vs. Lions CB Kindle Vildor

I’m going to cheat a little bit for my Cheapskate WR of the Week™. First of all, $5100 for Odunze is more expensive than I’d like for such a play, and it especially doesn’t look as appealing as compared to Keenan Allen ($5300) and DJ Moore ($5700), both of whom figure to be popular against this banged-up (to put it mildly) Lions secondary.

But because Odunze’s price is so close to the more established players, it’s possible he’s good leverage at a fraction of the ownership. And when he plays outside, he lines up at RWR 45% of the time compared to just 19% on the left side of the offensive formation. And if trends continue, that will put him in Vildor’s primary coverage, as Vildor played LCB almost exclusively against the Bills last week.

Vildor has had a rough go of it this year when pressed into action, especially against the Colts in Week 12. And with Carlton Davis and Khalil Dorsey now out with long-term injuries, the Lions have no choice but to give him extended run against Chicago this week.

Of course, clicking on any Bears name with the way Caleb Williams is playing right now is tough, and clicking Odunze, in particular, is difficult given how close in price he is to his two more famous teammates. But in a perfect world, Odunze has 3 TD in his last three games or so that either he or Caleb missed on. What if one or two of those errant deep balls connect in a pristine matchup?

So he is, begrudgingly, my Cheapskate WR of the Week™. Just don’t trust him in season-long lineups.

Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Texans slot DB Eric Murray

I’m not sure what I did to deserve this week, but almost all of my favorite “cheap” WR plays are not on the DFS main slate.

That holds true with JuJu, who presumably will be playing with Patrick Mahomes (ankle) at QB and against a Texans defense that has had a revolving — and wide-open — door in the slot since Jalen Pitre went down for the season.

It’s probably not fair to pin that all on an individual like Murray or Jimmie Ward, given the Texans play man only a quarter of the time or so, but over the last five weeks, they’ve allowed +4.6 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot receivers, which is tied for 6th-most in the NFL. That certainly benefits JuJu, who runs about half of his routes from the slot.

This is not an endorsement of JuJu in a season-long lineup, but I might be looking to the cheap DFS market on the Saturday slates or in the prop world if Mahomes does play. It’s slim pickins out there for bottom-barrel WRs this week.

Packers perimeter WRs vs. Saints CBs

There are a couple of things preventing me from listing Dontayvion Wicks as my Cheapskate WR Play of the Week™. First is most obvious: the fact that this game is on Monday night and not on the DFS main slate. Second is the fact that the Packers are two-touchdown favorites and might just be able to ride Josh Jacobs to victory against a completely decimated Saints team.

But if you’re playing full week slates or making prop bets, Wicks and Christian Watson should be popular against the struggling Alontae Taylor and Kool-Aid McKinstry. Over the last five weeks, the Saints have surrendered +5.2 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs, which is the 5th-highest number in the NFL over that span.

For season-long purposes, Wicks isn’t in consideration and Watson is merely a volatile FLEX, but if the latter goes for 100 and a score, I wouldn’t be shocked.

Pump the Brakes

Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell vs. Commanders WR Terry McLaurin

It was probably the game that put Mitchell’s name onto the Defensive Rookie of the Year map, an award for which he is now the betting favorite — in Week 11, McLaurin had just a single catch for 10 yards against Philly (a team he has historically tortured), and the rookie Mitchell held him catchless in his primary coverage.

Now, Mitchell doesn’t shadow and plays almost exclusively RCB, with Darius Slay manning the left side, but that means he has to handle McLaurin almost exclusively as well, as Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury notoriously doesn’t move his WRs around. So I will be looking forward to this battle in a huge way.

Some things need to be addressed, of course. By the eye test, rookie QB Jayden Daniels is healthier now than he was a month ago, when these two divisional foes faced off last time. And McLaurin is a notoriously competitive player who certainly knows how people have been talking about his matchup with the rookie. As we saw last week with AJ Brown, Narrative Street can be a good route to take when trying to create DFS leverage.

But by the numbers? McLaurin is a warranted downgrade to the WR2 range.

49ers DB Deommodore Lenoir vs. Dolphins WR Malik Washington

Lenoir, one of the NFL’s premier slot CBs, was in large part responsible for Cooper Kupp’s 0.0 in fantasy quarterfinals last week. Yes, I broke down the matchup as a negative one for Kupp in this very column, but it goes without saying that I didn’t predict the zero.

But obviously, it’s a brutal draw for a slot WR — the Niners allow a league-low -6.7 schedule-adjusted FPG to slot receivers over the last five weeks. That’s notable, because if Jaylen Waddle (leg) can’t play in this game, I expect Washington to draw some interest from the DFS community as a sub-$4K WR who projects to have a big role.

But even after Waddle went down against the Texans last week, Washington maintained his majority slot role, with Grant DuBose (before his own injury) and River Cracraft coming in and playing Waddle’s perimeter role.

The 49ers may view TE Jonnu Smith as the guy who should draw Lenoir’s matchup, and that’s certainly a wrinkle here that needs to be addressed, but I’ll be underweight on Washington in DFS compared to the public.