2024 Week 15 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. vs. Eagles WR AJ Brown

Porter didn’t shadow Jerry Jeudy last week, a sequel to the Week 12 game in which he didn’t shadow either — he covered Jeudy on 36% and 36.6% of his routes, respectively. I think he’ll get back to his shadowing ways against AJB and the Eagles this week.

But that’s not the interesting part of this matchup. That, rather, is the — in my opinion — overblown “controversy” about the Eagles’ passing game. It’s hard for a clearly frustrated Brown to get the volume he probably deserves when the Eagles are a bowling ball on the ground with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. The Eagles’ -6.6% pass rate over expectation is the lowest in the NFL this year. And they’ve had just one game — Week 3 against New Orleans, a game in which Brown didn’t even play — with a positive PROE. Combine that with Hurts looking utterly lost on the few dropbacks he had against the Panthers last week in a flat game for Philly, and you get raw meat for the most over-reactionary media market in the country.

Hurts didn’t play well last week, and he just seems to have a handful of games every year in which he has no clue what he’s looking at. And Brown’s frustrations are understandable — wide receivers, by nature, are deeply strange and egotistical people when stepping on the field. But it’s been proven that Nick Sirianni is a reliable “squeaky wheel” greaser.

This is a tough matchup for Brown. But he’s shown in his career that he can get in the heads of opposing DBs, and Porter is one of the most penalized players in the league this year. It’s possible Peezy Jr. gets burned once or twice when trying to avoid a flag. Ultimately, I’m comfortable driving down Narrative Street here. It would have been hard for the books to set a line high enough for me to consider not betting AJB’s “over.”

I think he’s a WR1 this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey vs. Texans WR Nico Collins

The Dolphins have deployed Ramsey as a shadow corner just four times this year, but the most he’s done it so far this year was last week against Garrett Wilson and the Jets. Ramsey, coincidentally, allowed 4 catches for 97 yards to Wilson in his primary coverage, the most in either category he’s allowed to any receiver in any game this season.

Given how disappointing Tank Dell has been statistically this year — whether that be the fault of Dell or the sophomore mini-slump for CJ Stroud — I wouldn’t be shocked if the Dolphins decide to deploy Ramsey on Collins almost exclusively in this game. But as Wilson showed last week, I’m not really sure that’s a big deal from a statistical perspective.

Collins has either 100 yards, a touchdown, or both in six of his eight games this year. He’s a must-start in season-long formats, and I don’t think the current version of Ramsey is going to make me shy away from him in DFS contests.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

I think most folks have had trouble describing the underwhelming rookie season for Harrison, who was supposed to come into the league and dominate immediately, much like Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. I’m certainly not someone who has had an easy time talking about it, either.

So I enlisted our guy Brett Whitefield, who has watched every snap Harrison has played this year, to break down his struggles. Here’s what he had to say:

“It’s a three-fold problem.

1.) Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing calls a super vanilla offense, predicated mostly on static concepts with run-off vertical routes to clear space. It can work with the right personnel makeup, but the Cardinals’ offense runs through three big, physical route runners in Harrison, Trey McBride, and Michael Wilson. Frankly, it’s dumb not to give them more "run-away" opportunities with slants, shallows, and crossing routes. These guys are hard to tackle, and yet they are either clearing space or playing with their backs to the defense. Specifically, the red-zone package is awful, with zero creativity. It basically consists of two fades on the outside, two locked hitches inside, and a late leak from the back. Everything is put on Kyler Murray’s shoulders to extend the play and make a hero throw.

2.) That leads to the second problem. Kyler isn't winning from the pocket at a sustainable level in the NFL. Furthermore, all of his "bad"/negative plays are coming when he creates. If he can't win from the pocket and is also making catastrophic mistakes when he's out of structure, what is he?

3.) Marv still looks great when he’s allowed to lean into his natural talent. His route running is crispy and fluid for such a big guy. But he is being coached to use the "speed roll" technique at the top of his stems, most notably on some of his most used routes — digs/ins. It just doesn't work for a big guy. He needs to be able to use that long frame and abnormally awesome ability to sink and explode at the top of the stem. From a fantasy perspective, the biggest issue is that the Cardinals call virtually no layups for him. No slants, no shallows, no screens. He isn't involved in the offense down-to-down, so he doesn’t get into a rhythm.

Everything they ask him to do — or rather, what they don’t — flies in the face of why you draft a guy like that #4 overall.”

Sooooo… other than that, Mrs. Lincoln!

Gonzalez is a tough matchup, but it’s really the usage that is the bigger concern for Harrison. It’s been the biggest concern all season. Time will tell if this is just a blatant case of malpractice or if this is more of a concerning Kyle Pitts-like long-term situation. For now, we’ll go with the former.

Harrison is a WR3 this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Texans CB Derek Stingley vs. Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill

Stingley has shadowed opposing WRs on over 60% of their routes on six different occasions this year. But three of those occasions have come in the Texans’ last four games, against Jameson Williams, Calvin Ridley, and Brian Thomas. Those three guys combined for just 3/72 receiving on 9 targets in Stingley’s primary coverage, so the Texans’ decision has paid off.

Of course, two of those guys were playing with subpar QBs (Will Levis and Mac Jones), while Williams isn’t his team’s primary option at the position. So we have to take that into account when projecting Tyreek this week. Tyreek is also coming off his best fantasy performance of the year in Week 14, and now quietly has turned in 17.5 FPG in his eight full games with Tua under center, which would be the equivalent of WR7 on the season.

Stingley’s shadow tendency over the last month, combined with some injuries in the secondary, has turned the Texans into a slot funnel — they’ve allowed a +5.8 schedule-adjusted FPG to slot receivers over the last five weeks, 2nd-most in the NFL. But Hill also runs about 40% of his routes in the slot, which means he can take advantage of that even if Stingley shadows him on his perimeter routes.

I like Tyreek as a low-end WR1 this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II vs. Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr.

It’s a legacy shadow matchup! Two sons of former NFL stars will stare down each other in one of the most critical games of the week for playoff positioning. And I’m not terribly fond of the matchup for the younger Pittman.

While the Broncos got involved in a ridiculous shootout with the Browns in Week 12 before their bye, Surtain was barely responsible for Jerry Jeudy’s blowup. Surtain shadowed Jeudy on 60.7% of his routes, virtually all of Jeudy’s outside routes. Jeudy posted 2 catches for 20 yards on 3 targets when Surtain was the closest defender — he had 8/205/1 against all other defenders, including when he got lined up on LBs and safeties in zone coverage.

The Broncos play man coverage at a top-five rate in the NFL, and that’s typically been a poor matchup for Pittman regardless of defender. I would imagine it’s worse with a stud like Surtain on the opposite side of the field. We still have yet to chart Surtain with allowing 30 or more yards to any receiver in his primary coverage this year. And the only TD he’s allowed — a 5-yarder to Xavier Legette — seemed to result from a miscommunication.

This is a better matchup for the expected return of slot man Josh Downs. If Downs plays, I’ll have Pittman outside of my top 36 WRs this week.

All Systems Go

Raiders WRs Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker vs. Falcons CB Mike Hughes

Over the last five weeks, no team is surrendering more schedule-adjusted FPG to WRs than Atlanta (+17.7). And that is built almost entirely on Hughes’ struggles with RWRs on the perimeter — +16.8 schedule-adjusted FPG to that position alone. (You might remember Hughes giving up a long touchdown that Jordan Addison essentially could have called a fair catch on last week).

Meyers was the Raiders’ primary RWR in Weeks 12 and 14, while Tucker was in 13. Meyers, obviously, is a must-start in season-long leagues given this, while Tucker has some super-low end DFS appeal.

There are two things preventing Tucker from being my Cheapskate WR Play of the Week™, however. First is obvious — this game is on Monday night, so it isn’t on the DFS main slate. Second is the fact that Desmond Ridder might start for an injured Aidan O’Connell (knee). So I can’t sit here and recommend anyone pick up and start Tucker in a must-win fantasy matchup, either.

Titans WRs vs. Bengals DBs

It took about six weeks longer than I expected, but Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s insane run of touchdown luck came to an end in Week 14 against Jacksonville. And in true fantasy football fashion, it came in perhaps the best possible matchup, as he caught just 1 pass for 19 yards on 2 targets (the incomplete target was an end-zone target in the fourth quarter, however). So I wouldn’t blame you if you’ve sworn him off forever.

Meanwhile, Calvin Ridley saw 12 targets against the Jags, but turned them into just 7/59 receiving. Ridley’s now gone over a month without scoring a TD and seems to be the definition of a fantasy WR3.

But… if there’s a week for them to bounce back? This is probably it. Over the last five weeks, the Bengals have given up the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing perimeter WRs. Cam Taylor-Britt — who will line up predominantly across from NWI at RCB — has been the primary culprit all year. We’ve charted Taylor-Britt as having surrendered 670 yards and 7 TD in his primary coverage this year, both most in the entire NFL.

The numbers suggest Ridley is a WR2 — as painful as that is to realize — and that NWI is a cheap-ish DFS option. But at $4900 on DraftKings, I’m not sure he’s cheap enough to consider him my Cheapskate WR Play of the Week™.

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown vs. Saints DBs

First of all, I anticipate Terry McLaurin will be popular on this week’s DFS slates. Our coverage tool has his most likely matchup with rookie Saints RCB Kool-Aid McKinstry, and while McKinstry is a talented player, McLaurin is playing at such a high level that he’s a tough matchup for any corner, let alone a rookie. McLaurin plays the overwhelming majority of his snaps from the LWR spot, thanks to Kliff Kingsbury’s pretty static alignments. The analysis doesn’t need to go much deeper than that.

However, I’m going to go way out on a limb for my Cheapskate WR Play of the Week™, if you don’t think Nick Westbrook-Ikhine qualifies as being cheap enough. With Noah Brown (internal injuries) out for a while, I expect that speedster Dyami Brown will get more opportunities this week at the RWR spot. That would align him the majority of the time with Alontae Taylor, who has struggled badly this year. We’ve charted Taylor as having allowed 667 receiving yards in his primary coverage, which is second in the NFL to only Cam Taylor-Britt.

Meanwhile, Dyami is coming off of a Week 13 game in which he set season-highs with 5 targets and 4 receptions, while running 17 routes, the second-most he’s run in any game this year. He also has the luxury of a Week 14 bye to prepare to play more snaps with Noah Brown down. And the last time Noah missed a game — Week 5 against the Browns — Dyami scored a 41-yard TD.

Yes, Olamide Zaccheaus could throw a wrench into this whole thing, and the projected gameflow could dictate the Commanders just smother the shorthanded Saints with the run game. But at just $3100 on DraftKings, Dyami could help you fill out your lineup with studs, and the matchup says he could make a big play, which is all he needs to pay off his salary.

Pump the Brakes

49ers slot CB Deommodore Lenoir vs. Rams WR Cooper Kupp

Lenoir had an absolutely stellar Week 14 against the Bears, allowing no catches to Bears WRs Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and DJ Moore in his primary coverage from the slot. And that’s contributed to the 49ers being the stingiest defense against opposing slot WRs in the last five weeks — a league-low -8.6 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to slots over that span.

Over that same span, Puka Nacua is the WR2 by FPG (24.8), while Kupp is “only” 9th at 17.7. And the matchup dictates a much better draw for Nacua this week yet again.

That’s not to say that Kupp is anywhere close to benchable in season-long formats — Jaxon Smith-Njigba just posted 6/50 on 7 targets in Lenoir’s primary coverage in Week 11 — but is worth considering as a downgrade into the WR2 range. And for DFS purposes, I expect Nacua to be more popular this week, and justifiably so.

Eagles DBs vs. Steelers WRs

Eagles slot CB Cooper DeJean had his first true “welcome to the NFL” moment last week, when Panthers veteran WR Adam Thielen took him to school to the tune of 4/49 on 5 targets in hus primary coverage, the first time all season that DeJean had allowed even 30 yards to an individual receiver in his primary coverage.

Meanwhile, the Eagles very narrowly escaped disaster, with Xavier Legette dropping a would-be game-winning touchdown on a perfect throw from Bryce Young. (Legette was lined up across from Darius Slay on the play, and it looked like Slay expected CJ Gardner-Johnson to pick him up sooner.)

Nonetheless, the Eagles got away with a flat performance, and this week, I expect them to be sharper. Moreover, this Steelers’ WR group, without George Pickens (hamstring), just has no scary options. Calvin Austin didn’t come through as my Cheapskate WR play last week, and I certainly don’t expect him to this week.