2024 Week 14 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. vs. Browns WR Jerry Jeudy

Often, when breaking down a one-on-one matchup, the box score doesn’t tell the entire story. The most extreme case might be Porter’s Week 13 disasterclass against the Bengals. While our charters dinged Porter for giving up just 2 catches for 18 yards on 5 targets to all Bengal receivers when he was the nearest defender — including just 1/16 to his shadow assignment, Tee Higgins — Peezy committed six penalties (four accepted), which upped his season total to 14.

And this week, Peezy has to take on one of the NFL’s hottest receivers. Jeudy is coming off the best game of his career, catching 9 passes for 235 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos — a similarly tough matchup, given Jeudy drew the shadow coverage of Patrick Surtain when he aligned on the perimeter. (Jeudy ran 33.9% of his routes in the slot last week.)

But as I speculated last week, the Browns did move Jeudy around to avoid PS2’s coverage as much as possible. Of the 9 catches, just 2 came in Surtain’s primary window, for just 20 yards. Jeudy’s 70-yard bomb came on Levi Wallace, while he also did significant damage in zone coverage.

Interestingly, these two faced off in Week 12, a game in which Jeudy had 6 catches for 85 yards in a snowstorm. Porter aligned across from Jeudy on just 36% of his routes… but actually played him on more slot routes (5) than perimeter routes (4). And Jeudy got the best of Porter, catching 3 passes for 28 yards in his primary coverage on only 9 routes. So the fact that the Browns move Jeudy into the slot to get better matchups might not mean he avoids Porter.

But does that even matter, given Porter’s struggles with penalties? Jameis Winston will throw him the ball anyway. I have Jeudy as a low-end WR1 this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Falcons CB AJ Terrell vs. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson

Terrell shadows every week, and it’s not hard to predict he’ll go up against Jefferson this week. And on the surface, that might be a concern, because Jefferson hasn’t topped 17.0 PPR FP in a month, and he fell below 10 FP in two of those four games.

Yeahhhh… but I don’t care. We have Terrell as having given up 5 TDs in his primary coverage, and over the last five weeks, only the Bengals are allowing more schedule-adjusted FPG to perimeter WRs than the Falcons (+7.8). Moreover, the Falcons played a season-high percentage of man coverage in Week 13 against the Chargers. I would advise against doing that this week.

We’re late enough in the season where I don’t really need to do a deep breakdown into a matchup that doesn’t need one. Jefferson — by his lofty standards — has been a bit of a fantasy disappointment this year. But this matchup dictates ranking him as a top-5 WR this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Cowboys CB DaRon Bland vs. Bengals WR Tee Higgins

I’d like to give a huge shoutout to the great Steve O’Rourke of Fantasy Points Data, who was confident that Joey Porter Jr. was going to shadow Higgins — and not Ja’Marr Chase — last week despite the industry assuming the opposite.

Of course, while Higgins caught just 1 pass for 16 yards in Porter’s primary coverage, he scored a touchdown in the shootout, and drew multiple penalties. So as always, the caveats when discussing these matchups are multiple: not only is it a two-way tough matchup (tough on the CB too), but WRs can move around against other defenders, face zone coverage, etc. Nothing is unimpeachable.

That means Bland — who made his season debut in Week 12 — has his work cut out for him. But we’re pretty confident in saying that Bland will shadow Higgins in Week 14, as Higgins remains the Bengals’ true X receiver. That’s because in his first two games of the season, he shadowed Terry McLaurin (71.4% of routes) and Malik Nabers (60.5%). And overall, he did a solid job, holding the two stars to 7/53 combined receiving on 9 targets. Bland’s return has bolstered a Dallas defense that is allowing just -2.6 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing perimeter WRs over the last five weeks, which is 6th-fewest in the NFL.

That all said? I just spent a lot of words to break down something I don’t really care about. This game is totaled at 49.5 — mostly because the Bengals can’t stop anyone — and I consider both Higgins and Chase WR1s for the week… just as they were against a much better Pittsburgh defense. You’re starting both. I’m mostly upset this game isn’t on the DFS main slate.

All Systems Go

Steelers WRs George Pickens and Calvin Austin vs. Browns DBs

I’m on a pretty good run of recommending low-end DFS plays in this column — the last four weeks, I’ve nailed Ricky Pearsall, Elijah Moore, Noah Brown, and Parker Washington. And I’m going to press my luck with Austin this week. I’ll get to him shortly.

But first, Pickens. Yes, the guy needs to grow up and learn how to properly signal a first down. It would be nice for the Steelers to have a star WR whom I wasn’t scared about getting ejected every game. But my man is about as gifted a receiver there is in the league. And this week, he draws a primary matchup with Martin Emerson. While Emerson held Pickens to just 2 receptions for 10 yards in his primary coverage two weeks ago, he just got absolutely worked by Courtland Sutton in Week 13 — while Sutton posted “only” 6/102 receiving, he posted one of our top ASSes of the week. Pickens is a slam-dunk WR1 this week.

As for Austin, check his game status, as he is in concussion protocol. But he got in a limited practice on Wednesday, which is a fantastic sign he’ll be able to play on Sunday. He’s scored from the slot in each of Pittsburgh’s last two games, which includes a matchup with Browns slot CB Greg Newsome. Over the last five weeks, the Browns have hemorrhaged points to opposing slot WRs, allowing +6.2 schedule-adjusted FPG to the position. Only the Texans — who are off this week — have allowed more. And Newsome has been consistently worked this year. Among qualified corners with 50% or more of their snaps in the slot this year, Newsome is 3rd in yards allowed, 3rd in touchdowns allowed, and worst in passer rating allowed.

And heck, we just saw Austin win in this matchup two weeks ago. I think he’s developing a rapport with Russell Wilson, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see another big play. If he’s active, I’ll use him as my cheap DFS lineup filler of the week, and I’ll be hitting some props on him.

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Chiefs CB Chamarri Conner

Injuries in the Chiefs’ secondary have increased Conner’s role from a part-time player and special-teams ace to a near full-time role in the slot for Kansas City, as Trent McDuffie plays much more outside than inside now.

After topping a 70% defensive snap share just once in the Chiefs’ first seven games, Conner has reached that number in five consecutive games. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Chiefs are now a top matchup for opposing slot WRs, having surrendered a 5th-most +3.5 schedule-adjusted FPG to the position over the last five weeks.

KC’s slot funnel will do the Chargers just fine, presuming McConkey (knee/shoulder) can play in this game, as expected. McConkey is averaging 107.7 receiving YPG over his last three games, and he scored the second TD of his career against the Chiefs back in Week 4 (a game in which he roasted Conner on a 37-yard slant from the slot).

McConkey is on the WR1 radar this week.

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Rams DB Quentin Lake

Lake — a safety by trade — has had an interesting year, bouncing between the slot and deep safety depending on what the Rams need from a personnel perspective. But lately, he’s been LA’s primary slot defender, and that’s a matchup I think the quicker Shakir can exploit.

Volume is going to be there. Since Week 7, Shakir has seen at least 7 targets in every game, catching at least 4 passes in each. That makes him a fantastic WR3 in season-long formats, though his ceiling for DFS formats has been limited by his absolutely minuscule aDOT — 4.0, lowest among qualified WRs — and his end-zone allergy.

Nonetheless, the Rams have allowed a 6th-most +2.4 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs over the last five weeks, and with six teams on bye this week, you can do a lot worse with Shakir as a WR2.

Titans WRs Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. Jaguars CBs

I’ve gone on the record with how I feel about NWI’s recent run of insane success. I truly don’t think it’s sustainable (see below). But he keeps scoring touchdowns, and with that, Will Levis has decided NWI deserves more opportunities — he’s received a 16% target share four times in his last five games.

Meanwhile, all logic should dictate that Ridley is the better player and the better DFS play — but among 149 WRs and TEs with 25 or more targets, Ridley is 139th in catchable target rate (64.3%). Of course, it’s even worse for NWI — 63.9%. So while some of Ridley’s inconsistencies can be explained away by inaccurate QB play, the numbers also suggest that NWI is on an impossible, improbable, unrepeatable heater.

That all might not matter this week against the Jags, however. Jacksonville top CB Tyson Campbell is nursing a thigh injury, and no team has allowed outside WRs — where NWI and Ridley run the overwhelming majority of their routes — to accrue more YPG than the Jags (128).

I like Ridley more than NWI this week, because I like to think logically. But Levis doesn’t play logically, and now, NWI is earning more targets. In this pristine matchup, Ridley is a WR2 and NWI a WR3, both with upside.

Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers vs. Buccaneers DBs

This is a WR/CB article, so I focus almost entirely on those two positions, but in reality, this should be a Brock Bowers blurb. The Bucs already have one starting S, Jordan Whitehead, on IR, while Whitehead’s replacement, Mike Edwards, is in danger of missing this game with a hamstring injury.

But hey, the Bucs have had problems in the secondary all year. They’re allowing a 4th-most +8.4 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs over the last five weeks, and among teams on the main DFS slate this week, that’s actually 2nd-most. Even if the Bucs get slot CB Tykee Smith (knee) back this week, Meyers (and, maybe Tre Tucker if you need a big play DFS dart throw) can provide some interesting leverage off Bowers chalk.

Meyers is a low-end WR1 for me this week, especially since Aidan O’Connell just played the best game any Raider QB has played this year.

Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert vs. Bengals CB Cam Taylor-Britt

This game isn’t on the main slate, so I’m not going to go too in depth, but the fact of the matter is that the Bengals need a serious dose of Immodium. Over the last five weeks, their +9.3 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing perimeter WRs is the most in the NFL. Taylor-Britt has been a consistent culprit of that: we’ve charted him as having allowed 647 receiving yards and 7 TD, both most in the NFL this season.

Meanwhile, Cooks returned from injury on Thanksgiving to score his first TD since Week 1, while Tolbert has seen at least 4 targets in seven of his last eight games.

For those playing DFS Showdown, Cooks is the better bet (he had 3 catches last week, something Tolbert hasn’t done since Week 10), but cheap dart throws on these guys or even Jonathan Mingo are justified by the pristine matchup.

Pump the Brakes

Panthers WRs vs. Eagles DBs

Bryce Young is one of my favorite stories in the NFL right now. He’s playing with confidence and looks a lot like the distribution master he was at Alabama, when he won the Heisman Trophy and became the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. The fact that he’s doing with a subpar NFL WR group is making me even more optimistic that he can continue this into the future (which, by the way, the Panthers apparently also believe).

I would advise anyone following Young’s career trajectory to not overreact to this matchup with the Eagles. Vic Fangio’s boys have become the NFL’s most stifling defensive unit on the strength of their secondary, especially rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. Over the last five weeks, the Eagles are the league-worst schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing perimeter WRs (-9.0 FPG), which means this is a No-Fly Zone for Xavier Legette and David Moore.

The “best” matchup is for the best receiver of the group, Adam Thielen, as the Eagles are “only” the 5th-worst matchup for slot WRs over the same span (-4.0 schedule-adjusted FPG).

I have Thielen as a WR3 this week, but I seriously doubt I’ll dabble in DFS.

Bears WR Keenan Allen vs. 49ers CB Deommodore Lenoir

There are a couple of injury caveats we need to watch here. First of all, if DJ Moore (quad) can’t play, the Bears might move Allen outside more to compensate, but the 49ers could also dedicate more resources to slowing him down.

And slowing Allen down would be much easier for the Niners if Lenoir, their star slot CB, is able to play after missing last week’s loss to the Bills with a knee injury. The fact that Lenoir has returned to practice is a good sign for his available. Moreover, Allen is dealing with an ankle injury himself, though he practiced in full on Thursday.

All considered, I’m slightly downgrading Allen this week, to the WR3 area.