2024 Week 12 DFS Early Look

Week 11 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 12 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 12 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 12 DFS:

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos (@ LV)

DraftKings: $6,300 (QB7) | FanDuel: $8,000 (QB6)

Nix ranks 7th in passing YPG (257.3) and 5th in FPG (23.3) over the last month – exceeding 29.0 DraftKings points twice in that sample. His four best games by passer rating have all come in the last six weeks, and he’s PFF’s 8th-highest-graded passer since Week 8. It doesn’t matter what metric you use – Nix has been dramatically better over his last half-dozen games.

For Week 12, he draws a Raiders’ defense that ranks as the 7th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+2.2 FPG). Nix has averaged an absurd 24.5 DraftKings FPG in top-7 matchups thus far (five instances) – a mark that would lead all slate-eligible QBs.

Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $5,600 (QB13) | FanDuel: $7,500 (QB11)

The erratic nature of Richardson’s play makes him nearly impossible to trust for cash, but he’s an undeniably great tournament option when his price is sub-$6,000 on DraftKings.

Richardson has attempted more than 15 pass attempts in eight career games, and he’s scored over 27.0 DraftKings points three times. That’s an outrageous 38% hit rate, but we shouldn’t be surprised. Richardson led all QBs with 15.2 rushing fantasy points in Week 11, and he’s throwing deep a league-leading 20% of the time. Yes, he’s erratic – but the elite rushing upside combined with his aggressive passing tendencies provides us with a tournament-winning ceiling.

And we might see that ceiling again this week – Richardson is playing in the highest-total game of the slate (50.5) as an 8.0-point underdog against a Detroit defense that has allowed the 5th-highest deep throw rate (13.3%) and the 10th-most deep completions (15). The spread implies Richardson will earn plenty of dropbacks, and the advanced data implies Richardson could have success targeting the Lions deep.

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (VS. NE)

DraftKings: $7,500 (RB3) | FanDuel: $9,100 (RB4)

Achane has averaged 19.6 XFP/G and 23.7 FPG in his healthy games with Tua Tagovailoa this season – marks that would rank 2nd-best and best over the full season. Achane (16%) ranks ahead of Jaylen Waddle (14%) in first-read target share since Week 8, and he’s finished top-2 on the team in target share three times in that sample. That’s high-end RB1 usage, and the efficiency has returned as well. Since Week 8, Achane ranks 5th among 39 qualifying RBs in YPC (5.3) and 8th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.24).

Position-leading volume and top-10 efficiency is a recipe for massive fantasy scores, and Achane’s Week 12 matchup only helps. New England ranks as the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted rushing matchup for opposing RBs (+3.6 rushing FPG). Another week, another great opportunity to play an underpriced Achane.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (@ CAR)

DraftKings: $6,200 (RB12) | FanDuel: $8,200 (RB8)

Pacheco looks poised to return in Week 12, providing Kansas City’s backfield with a much-needed spark. Kareem Hunt has averaged just 3.7 YPC – a mark that ranks dead last of the 28 qualifying RBs with at least 100 attempts this season. Pacheco has averaged 4.6 YPC across his career, and he’s been dramatically better than Hunt in every efficiency metric that matters.

I’m still not sure what the exact split will be when Pacheco returns, but the team will likely favor the runner who has been notably more efficient. Let’s not forget that Hunt has led all RBs in XFP/G (20.4) since Week 6 – so the raw workload available to Pacheco is one of the best in the NFL.

And there might not be a better team for an RB to return to play against than Carolina. The Panthers are by far the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup in the NFL for opposing RBs on the ground (+5.8 rushing FPG), allowing a league-leading 160.1 rushing YPG. Even if Pacheco’s volume isn’t elite, his efficiency should be.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots (VS. MIA)

DraftKings: $5,900 (RB15) | FanDuel: $6,400 (RB23)

Over the past month, Stevenson is the RB6 by XFP/G (18.8), the RB12 by FPG (16.9), and the RB7 (75%) by snap share. He’s massively underpriced relative to this recent usage (especially on FanDuel), and he’s due for some positive regression based on XFP.

Maybe we see that regression in Week 12 – the Dolphins are the 8th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+1.7 FPG), and Stevenson scored 19.2 DraftKings points the last time these teams played. My only concern here is the spread (Patriots +7.0), as Stevenson’s per-snap usage falls by 11% and his per-snap production falls by 16% when New England has trailed since 2022. But even a ~15% hit to Stevenson’s usage still gives him a workload that’s dramatically better than his price on either DFS site would indicate. Regardless of how this game plays out, he’s undeniably a strong value.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (VS. NE)

DraftKings: $7,200 (WR6) | FanDuel: $8,300 (WR8)

It doesn’t inspire much hope that Hill has earned just a 20% target share since Tua Tagovialoa returned to the lineup, but we know he has nuclear upside. Hill has scored over 30.0 DraftKings points in 32% of the games he’s played with Tagovailoa under center. Last year, we happily paid $9,300 on DraftKings in Week 17 for the opportunity to play Hill.

And the matchup is sneakily one of the best of the week. New England is the 7th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+2.3 FPG) since Week 6, and the Patriots are allowing the 6th-most deep receiving YPG (54.8) this season. Hill hasn’t had a big game since Week 1, but I will keep taking shots on him in tournaments because of his slate-breaking ceiling.

Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers (@ GB)

DraftKings: $5,600 (WR19) | FanDuel: $6,700 (WR22)

Jennings has played in three games this season without either Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, and he’s averaged 119.7 receiving YPG, 19.6 XFP/G, 29.3 FPG, and a 42% first-read target share in those contests. Over the full season, those marks would rank 1st, 3rd, 1st, and 2nd among all pass catchers. I don’t think Jennings can maintain high-end WR1 production for the rest of the season, but there is no world where he should be priced as a low-end WR2 for DFS.

Green Bay is a tough matchup, but Jennings is so egregiously mispriced that I’d still expect him to pop as one of the best WR values of Week 12.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (@ CAR)

DraftKings: $5,800 (TE3) | FanDuel: $7,200 (TE3)

Kelce couldn’t manage anything in Week 11, scoring just 2.8 fantasy points against Buffalo. But before that game, Kelce had averaged 18.6 XFP/G and 9.5 catchable targets per game over the previous month. This year, those marks would rank 4th-best and best among slate-eligible WRs – yet Kelce is priced as the WR17 on this slate. And he draws an outstanding matchup – the Panthers rank as the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+4.5 FPG). I’m eager to play an underpriced Kelce this week, as his price looks incredible when compared to the WR position.

Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots (@ MIA)

DraftKings: $4,000 (TE10) | FanDuel: $5,200 (TE14)

Henry has averaged 12.2 XFP/G, 54.0 receiving YPG, and a 26% first-read target share since Week 7 – marks that would rank 4th, 5th, and 4th among TEs over the full season.

Drake Maye has provided this offense with a serious spark – he’s averaging +63.0 more passing YPG than Jacoby Brissett in his healthy starts, on top of an extra +1.1 passing TDs per game and an +8% better catchable throw rate (76%).

Henry was seeing comparable volume with Brissett under center, but the quality of his receiving volume has improved dramatically since Maye took over in Week 6. This slate doesn’t offer much value at first glance, so the salary relief Henry provides this week might be crucial.