The NFL season is finally here, and with that, we have some on-field performances to back up all of the offseason analysis and projections. In our introduction to WAR for different league settings, we were only working with historical data. Now, we will be looking at in-season data when we talk about WAR.
First, I wanted to shamelessly plug the 2024 Fantasy WAR data tracking. WAR will be tracked for six different league types throughout the season and will be updated weekly.
Today, we will compare week 1 WAR to ADP to find players who overperformed and underperformed their ADP. We will primarily work with 2-WR PPR leagues for the WAR values.
Overperformers
Starting on a positive note, I wanted to highlight some of the biggest overperformers. Now there are 17 more weeks to the season, but these players are off to a great start.
Jayden Reed (WR, GB)
WAR Rank: 2
ADP Rank: 74
Discrepancy: +72
Reed dominated the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1 with a WAR value of 0.62 (meaning that having him in your lineup gave you a 62% chance of winning or matchup). He was far and away the most valuable WR compared to ADP in Week 1 and finished as the WR1 overall.
Jordan Mason (RB, SF)
WAR Rank: 14
ADP Rank: 386
Discrepancy: +372
The wildest story from Week 1 (that didn’t involve a player getting put in handcuffs) was the San Francisco RB saga. Christian McCaffery was a late scratch, and Jordan Mason came in to save the day for fantasy managers who picked up the handcuff RB. Mason finished as the RB5 of the week and produced a WAR of 0.41.
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB)
WAR Rank: 7
ADP Rank: 158
Discrepancy: +151
Mayfield’s strong WAR performance far exceeded his draft position. Now, it was a projected weak matchup with the Commanders secondary, but Mayfield took advantage. Mayfield provided a 0.52 WAR and finished as the QB2. This was exceptional for a QB whom many were using as a streaming option — if at all.
Isaiah Likely (TE, Bal)
WAR Rank: 5
ADP Rank: 167
Discrepancy: +162
Likely started the season off with a bang on Thursday night. Likely finished with a WAR of 0.56 and was the clear TE1 on the week. In fact, there was no other TE that finished in the top 30 of most valuable players. While WAR factors the positional values, it is remarkable that no other TE finished that highly.
Josh Allen (QB, Buf)
WAR Rank: 4
ADP Rank: 22
Discrepancy: +18
Although already high in ADP, Allen's WAR performance shows why he was the QB1 off the board. While the difference between ADP and WAR rank is not as high as other players, Allen’s WAR of 0.56 made it worth it to spend the required draft capital to have Allen on your team.
There are many more players who had remarkable performances in Week 1. Jameson Williams, Allen Lazard, Joe Mixon, and J.K. Dobbins (to name a few) all vastly outperformed their ADPs. Saquon Barkley had the most valuable Week 1 performance, but he already had a Round 1 ADP.
Underperfomers
On the flip side, there were several players who disappointed compared to ADP.
Mark Andrews (TE, Bal)
WAR Rank: 145
ADP Rank: 45
Discrepancy: -100
With Isaiah Likely having such a great week, it came at the cost of Andrews disappointing. It will be intriguing to watch if there is a changing of the guard in Baltimore over the season, but Andrews started off with a WAR of -0.06 (meaning that solely based on his performance there was a 6% chance you lost your matchup). The only reason this is not lower is due to the relatively low scores from most of the TEs in the league.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, Ari)
WAR Rank: 297
ADP Rank: 14
Discrepancy: -283
Marvin Harrison Jr. had a rough debut by just about any way you look at it. His WAR ended up at -0.16. This was the lowest out of any player drafted in the first two rounds. I know I lost my leagues where I had him slotted as my WR1. While the 4th overall pick of the real NFL Draft, still has time to right the ship, it is not the start that fantasy managers expected.
Drake London (WR, Atl)
WAR Rank: 259
ADP Rank: 19
Discrepancy: -240
While Marvin Harrison Jr. has the excuse of Week 1 being his NFL debut, Drake London does not. In perhaps the 2nd most disappointing Week 1 performance, London provided a WAR of -0.14. London is still establishing chemistry with Kirk Cousins (who also disappointed), but this is not what many expected from a Round 2 pick. Pittsburgh is a tough opponent, but London needs to turn in better performances soon to avoid the dreaded BUST label.
Zamir White (RB, LV)
WAR Rank: 152
ADP Rank: 82
Discrepancy: -70
White was one of the more popular Zero RB targets in drafts after how he finished 2023. Week 1 was not what managers were expecting with an expanded workload. White earned a WAR of -0.06 and really struggled against the Chargers.
Joe Burrow (QB, Cin)
WAR Rank: 164
ADP Rank: 61
Discrepancy: -103
The most disappointing team in Week 1 was the Cincinnati Bengals (aside from the Carolina Panthers, who were expected to lose). While Burrow and the Bengals had several opportunities to score, Burrow couldn’t quite get on the same page with most of his targets. He finished with a WAR of -0.08 and hurt any manager that started him in their lineups.
You will notice that this list does not include Christian McCaffrey. Since McCaffery did not play, he does not have a WAR value for Week 1. McCaffery not playing was certainly disappointing to fantasy managers, but Jordan Mason did a great job of filling in to support managers that stashed him as a handcuff. Other disappointing performances included DJ Moore, Tank Dell, Calvin Ridley, and Raheem Mostert.
Closing Remarks
While it is dangerous to draw too many conclusions from Week 1, it is important to understand how players impacted your lineups. Throughout the season, we will do more of these breakdowns for how valuable players are to your roster. You can, also, check out the Fantasy WAR data on Fantasy Points to make the most out of your team.
I would look for more explosive outings from some of the highly drafted players in your lineup coming soon while they shake the rust off, but, right now, there are many players with late ADPs proving to provide immense value to your roster.
