Unlocking Average Separation: Playcaller Impact

When Scott Barrett asked me to write a weekly WR piece for Fantasy Points, I was excited to hear what he had in mind. But then he started talking about his ASS (Average Separation Score), and I was a bit concerned. However, after further examination of this ASS metric, I've come to realize there's a lot we can learn from it and how things might adjust going forward.

Our team has covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts, but I wanted to highlight the coaching aspect and how a change at play caller led to success in Houston and how a change for the Saints can lead to fantasy success.

Houston Texans: The Right Play-Caller and QB

The Houston Texans are one of the most straightforward teams to analyze with the available data, thanks to Nico Collins's noticeable growth, Bobby Slowik's and C.J. Stroud's impact, and Tank Dell's addition. Collins' separation score increased by 0.044, which might not seem like much, but it represents a 31% improvement from the previous season.

This jump elevated him from a range comparable to Tee Higgins to a level alongside elite separators like Davante Adams and his new teammate, Stefon Diggs.

Tank Dell’s Impact

Another key factor in Collins' improvement was the addition of Dell.

Dell's rookie season showcased his elite separation skills, as he ranked number one in the Fantasy Points separation metric. His ability to consistently turn defensive backs around and glide past them made life easier for Collins, as defenses had to account for both receivers. Dell was also capable of doing it from out wide or in the slot, represented by his average separation score being over .20 from inside or out wide. Only four other wide receivers hit both marks last season.

Stefon Diggs in Houston

Now, with the addition of Diggs, there’s uncertainty in the fantasy community about how to approach this Texans' receiving corps. In my opinion, all three receivers — Collins, Dell, and Diggs — are poised for success, assuming they stay healthy throughout the season. Their performance will largely depend on opposing defenses and how Bobby Slowik chooses to attack them.

The one thing I love about Kyle Shanahan disciples — like Slowik — is their ability to get teams into Cover 3 coverage because you need the extra player in the box to account for the running scheme. By the average separation score metric, the Texans have three wide receivers in the top 15 against Cover 3. (As a side note, the Texans’ Week 1 opponent — the Colts — ran Cover 3 at the second-highest rate last season. Sounds like good eatin’.)

While Diggs may have experienced a dip in production toward the end of his time with Buffalo, I believe his struggles were more a result of his dissatisfaction and a role change within Joe Brady's offense — factors that were, in my opinion, significantly overlooked.

Despite this, Diggs still finished ahead of players like A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Chris Olave in separation score. The Texans will be able to leverage this with their group of pass-catchers.

How I am Drafting the Texans Pass Catchers

I also anticipate that Diggs will see significant time in the slot — when the Texans went to 3-WR sets this preseason, Diggs appeared in the slot at a 60% rate. While this might mean he’s less explosive than in previous years, he’s likely to receive a high volume of targets from Stroud, making him potentially the most consistent option of the trio.

Personally, I want at least one of these receivers on my fantasy team. Based on how my home leagues are drafting, Dell is likely to fall further than his ADP, and I'll happily draft him a round after Diggs.

New Orleans Saints: Olave's Potential

The Saints are a team I’m especially eager to study this upcoming season, primarily because of the change at offensive coordinator. I believe Chris Olave is poised for a big year in this new scheme. While I do have concerns about Derek Carr and the offensive line, I’m confident that Klint Kubiak can be creative enough to maximize Olave's potential.

The Role of Pre-Snap Motion

Olave has already demonstrated his ability to be an excellent separator, but he hasn’t consistently been placed in the right role or utilized in ways that scheme him open.

Over the past two years, Olave’s separation score has been on par with Jaylen Waddle’s, despite operating in a very different offensive system. Last season, the Saints had the lowest amount of motion on dropbacks at 24.3%, while Miami used motion on 79.6% of their plays, ranking in the top five. Pre-snap motion helps determine coverage, shifts defensive back leverage, and forces the defense to react before the snap, giving the offense an advantage post-snap. (A prime example of this is how Miami’s motion last season led to Tyreek Hill being covered by Khalil Mack on one play.)

Rashid Shaheed’s Role

I emphasize Miami’s use of motion because Rashid Shaheed should be utilized in a similar manner, and if he is, two things could happen.

First, the metrics might not fully capture Olave’s effectiveness because, to measure separation, a defender needs to be in position to cover — and players like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle often find themselves running against open space due to the fear they instill in defenses.

Olave, who doesn’t have Miami’s elite speed, will likely face tighter overage, but the pre-snap motion involving Shaheed could significantly benefit him.

Transition to A.T. Perry

Additionally, the transition in the wide receiver room from Michael Thomas to A.T. Perry will be crucial. Thomas ranked last in separation score on 9 routes last season at -0.23, indicating he’s lost the step needed to compete at a high level in the NFL. While Perry’s score is still in the negative, he’s a much more explosive athlete with room for growth in his release and downfield play.

Saints 2024 Outlook

Kubiak will target Olave at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and I do believe Olave has the upside to be a top 5 wide receiver in fantasy because of the volume his way. This may come without an increase in separation score, but that’s because of how they could unlock this offense, and it’s going to lead to more routes on air.

Key Takeaways

This ASS metric is one I am looking forward to discuss weekly. I will be looking to take the data for what it is and make sense of it to the best of my abilities.

The Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans, and Tampa Buccaneers are a few other teams to watch for the upcoming season.