Week 1. A new season. A clean slate for all teams. Are you ready?
This always seems so far away when the Hall of Fame Game teams report in mid-July, and you go through the dog days of August hoping that an important player( on your favorite team doesn’t go down with a major injury. With only three preseason games that extra weekend of waiting can feel like a lifetime. For those fans already dealing with the injury bug,I’m sorry, but the beat goes on.
Each week I’ll be putting out an article with my thoughts going into that weekend’s slate of games. They’ll typically focus on OL/DL matchups to consider when setting your lineup, and I’ll throw in two or three extra thoughts at the end to keep it spicy.
Remember that I’ll still be watching film and evaluating matchups from a scout’s perspective, so give this as much/little weight in your fantasy decisions as you like. With that, here are my Week 1 thoughts.
I haven’t changed the offensive line or defensive line rankings I made earlier this summer. I know there’s been some movement (Matthew Judon being traded, K’Lavon Chaisson being released, etc.), but the rankings will stay the same until there is regular-season action that will alter the grades.
Week 1 OL/DL Matchups to watch
LAR @ DET — Detroit OL (#1) vs LA Rams DL (#29)
It’s tough to imagine a more favorable matchup for the #1 ranked offensive line to start the 2024 season. A year ago, Detroit ranked 4th in zone YPC (5.01) and 8th in man YPC (4.54), while LA ranked 17th and 20th, respectively, on defense. The Lions are full of returning veteran grinders upfront whereas the Rams are on the road without Aaron Donald and mostly unproven youth. Kobie Turner and Byron Young put up good sack numbers as rookies, but I wouldn’t expect them to get near Jared Goff very often. I understand the “revenge game” mentality the Rams might have going back to Detroit, but I expect Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to get off to hot starts in 2024.
DAL @ CLE — Cleveland DL (#1) vs Dallas OL (#17) – Cleveland OL (#4) vs Dallas DL (#4)
This is a big-time matchup on both sides of the trenches.
The Browns’ DL group returns every starter and key depth pieces and was an easy pick for my #1 defensive line going into 2024. DC Jim Schwartz will use eight D-linemen to keep everyone fresh, so expect Myles Garrett and the rest of the group to be flying around deep into the 4th quarter. Meanwhile, the Dallas O-line is the weak spot of the offense for the first time in a long time. The Cowboys aren’t lacking weapons, but Dak Prescott will be under fire all game long.
On the flip side, this has the makings of a bar-room brawl upfront. Reports are that Jack Conklin will move to left tackle with Jedrick Wills still out, and Dawand Jones will start at right tackle. The Browns might be better off without Wills if Conklin can survive on the left side, but Micah Parsons can ruin anyone’s day. In 2023, Dallas had arguably the best pass-rushing unit with just about the same guys but were awful against the run, which is Cleveland’s bread and butter, so this will be a good test for both units.
NE @ CIN — Bengals DL (#17) vs NE OL (#32)
The NFL could have scheduled Denver, Carolina, or Arizona (my bottom three D-lines) against New England in Week 1 and I would have said it’s a favorable matchup. Check out my OL preview article for my thoughts on New England’s unit, but I’ll sum it up real quick … it’s not gonna be good. The Bengals counter with Trey Hendrickson, the sack lead from a year ago, and added interior pass rush help with Sheldon Rankins. The Pats have shuffled the projected starting lineup a bit, and I just don’t see this group putting it together against a proven pass rush. This is an excellent chance for the Cincy D-line to come out of the gates fast.
ARZ @ BUF — Bills OL (#8) vs Cardinals DL (#32)
Everyone should target the Arizona D-line until told otherwise. Yes, they’ve fully revamped the interior that gave up the most rushing yards last season, but Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones aren’t the answer. It’s not a pretty picture on the edge either, with BJ Ojulari on IR. The pass rush responsibility falls on Zaven Collins, but one guy won’t be a game-wrecker against Dion Dawkins, Spencer Brown, and a Bills unit that game up the fewest sacks in the league last season. Start Josh Allen. Start James Cook. Start Khalil Shakir. Start Dalton Kincaid…you get the picture.
JAX @ MIA — Jaguars DL (#5) vs Dolphins OL (#25)
I’m pretty excited about this matchup because I’m very confident the Jaguars are set up for a great season on the defensive line. Arik Armstead joins Josh Hines-Allen and Trayvon Walker to make this starting unit flat-out scary. The intriguing piece here is how quickly Miami typically gets rid of the ball. The textbook way to neutralize a dangerous pass rush is getting the ball out of the QB’s hands fast, and Tua Tagovailoa was the quickest in 2023 with an average throw time of 2.22 seconds. I know it’s not sexy for fantasy, but I’m interested to see how well the Dolphins mitigate the improved Jacksonville front. There’s a world where Tua doesn’t get touched or disrupted very often, so statistically, the Jags D-line could get off to a slow start in 2024, and I’ve got egg on my face after one week. However, I’d still bet on the Jags putting up big sack numbers as the season progresses.
HST @ IND — Colts OL (#6) vs Texans DL (#12)
Based on my rankings, this isn’t the most lopsided matchup of the weekend, but it’s one of the most intriguing. Houston comes in at #12 in my D-line rankings after nearly wholesale changes to a unit that would have easily been top-5. Statistically, they were good against both the run and pass but only brought back two of the top eight guys. Danielle Hunter joins Will Anderson to create a dangerous pass-rush duo on paper, but the jury is very much still out on the Houston D-line.
The Colts, on the other hand, are the epitome of continuity. All five starters return to what was quietly one of the best units in the NFL in 2023. I’m interested to see how the Indy offense changes after QB Anthony Richardson has a full offseason under his belt, but I’d still expect the Colts to favor the run game.
So, we have an early-season showdown that could shape how the AFC South race plays out. It’s a good test for the Texans’ revamped defensive front and a chance for the Colts to say they’re the real big dogs in the division. I’m excited about this one.
Other Week 1 thoughts
San Francisco gets their guys back for Monday Night Football
All the drama, all the wondering, all the waiting by 49ers fans for decisions on Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams is over. Both guys are back with fresh new deals right in time for the opener. This is arguably the most impactful development of the preseason, as San Fran’s offense is completely different without both of these guys. Aiyuk gives QB Brock Purdy his full arsenal of weapons and Williams (who is much more important of the two) solidifies my #2 ranked offensive line, who would be much further down the list if he wasn’t there.
One of the big questions I’ve been hearing since they returned is, “will these guys have enough time to get in shape to play a full game?” The short answer is no. Seven to 10 days is not long enough to get in game shape, especially when you haven’t been practicing. However, Aiyuk was holding in, so he was able to work out and condition with the team for all of camp. Williams was holding out, but I highly doubt he was lying on the couch all summer waiting for the end of the preseason before he finally got back in the gym. So, no, it’s not enough time to be in game shape, but don’t expect a pitch count for either guy on Monday night.
Another question I’ve heard is, “Will there be a dip in the quality of play since they haven’t been practicing?” We’ll see this more with Purdy and Aiyuk than with Williams. Running routes on air, 7-on-7, and full team drills are extremely important for a QB/WR connection, and unfortunately, Purdy and Aiyuk haven’t gotten that time this summer. I don’t expect it will take long to get back in sync, but week 1 could be bumpy. For Williams, I have no doubt he will pick up where he left off last season. This will be year five in the same offensive system, so his knowledge and understanding of the offense is second nature.
I’m glad the 49ers are healthy heading into the regular season. They’ve been one of the better teams in the league since HC Kyle Shanahan arrived, and football is more fun when San Francisco is healthy. But I wouldn’t be shocked if there are a couple of bumps in the road in the early going.
Will the Jets live up to the hype?
On the other side of the opening Monday Night Football game, the Jets will finally — hopefully — get a chance to see what Aaron Rodgers and this offense can do. I get it, the Jet hype was massive going into last season and the entire team was deflated after four plays. Once Rodgers takes his fifth snap, all of Gang Green will exhale, and then we can finally get a sense of how good this offense will be. They’ve got a stud WR in Garrett Wilson, a rising star RB in Breece Hall, and the Guru’s TE sleeper in Tyler Conklin. This team has to be good, right?
I’ll also be locked in on both sides of the trenches for the Jets. I’ve been lower on their new-look O-line than others this preseason, mainly because there are three newcomers, and the projected starting five didn’t play together in any of the three preseason games. Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses are vets who can handle not getting any reps before real football starts, but the OL is a big question mark for me with an older QB coming off a torn Achilles.
On the other side, I was very high on the New York D-line during the offseason, given the additions of Haason Reddick and Javon Kinlaw. But, Reddick has made the good feelings go right out the door by refusing to report. It’s a weird situation that continues to baffle me. Is it the Jets playing hardball? Is it Reddick being unreasonable? Is it both? (Probably.)
With Aiyuk and Williams figuring it out in San Fran and the similar situation of Matthew Judon getting worked out in Atlanta, the Jets once again look like a poorly run organization. Jermaine Johnson and Quinnen Williams still command respect, but Purdy will be a lot more comfortable in the pocket Monday night than expected.
Enjoy real football, everybody!
