The A.S.S. Report: 2024 Week 9

Every week I will be diving into the Fantasy Points Data to provide our readers with actionable and winning insights into your season. This week provided a lot of valuable data points for things going forward and showcased some of the major improvements players have made. I will focus mainly on ASS (Average Separation Score) but blend in plenty of metrics that offer a full picture, like first-read targets.

If you are new to the term ASS don’t worry — we have covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts.

Top ASS Overall

(Minimum 75 routes run)

Zay Flowers (BAL)

In four of the last five games, Flowers has consistently posted over 100 yards receiving, showcasing a significant uptick in performance. During this stretch, his Average Separation Score has reached an impressive .286, the highest among receivers with at least 50 routes run, paired with an overall win rate of 24.3%. This improvement can be largely attributed to a shift in his route-running usage, enabling him to leverage his strengths more effectively on the field.

Previously, Flowers’ route distribution was 23% horizontally breaking and 39% vertically breaking. Recently, however, these numbers have shifted to 40% horizontal and 29% vertical. This adjustment has allowed Flowers to better utilize his route-running skills, leading to increased opportunities for yards after the catch as he leaves defenders behind. His current win rate in these situations has climbed to 33.9%, underscoring how the new approach has enhanced his efficiency and impact on the field.

Darnell Mooney (ATL)

The best part about this charted data is that it gives us a direct comparison to last season, and if we look at Mooney’s numbers, they show he’s remained consistent as a player. Last year, his separation score sat at .048 with a win rate of 12.0%; this year, his separation score has edged up slightly to .058, along with a win rate increase to 14.8%. While this 2.8% bump in win rate may seem modest, it underscores how a change at quarterback and playcaller can significantly impact a receiver’s productivity. Playing under Luke Getsy and with Justin Fields didn’t allow Mooney to showcase his abilities — but with Kirk Cousins, his potential is clearer.

That doesn’t mean Mooney is suddenly in the same class as the league’s elite receivers, such as those in the top ten for yardage. His metrics place him more comfortably in the WR2 category, around the 18-22 range in terms of reliability. This example highlights the importance of context when evaluating a receiver’s performance. Too often, we overlook the "why" behind a player’s numbers, especially when evaluating those who might be underperforming. Mooney’s situation reminds us how much a shift in environment can reveal — or obscure — a player’s true value, influencing whether to buy into or pass on someone heading for a change in scenery.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)

This past weekend, Jaxon Smith-Njigba posted an outlier 20.2 average depth of target (aDOT), fueling a standout performance and building hope that the Seahawks will continue utilizing him in a downfield role. Smith-Njigba has shown he can deliver in these scenarios; in three games this season in which his aDOT exceeded 10 yards, he recorded 90 or more receiving yards each time. Notably, with DK Metcalf out, Smith-Njigba commanded a larger share of the air yards against a vulnerable Rams secondary, which allowed him to shine as an intermediate/deep threat. While it’s unlikely he’ll maintain this level of downfield usage every week, he’s proven he has the ability to stretch the field effectively.

The challenge for the Seahawks, however, remains their offensive line. Smith-Njigba, while showing promise as a deep threat, doesn’t have the blistering speed of a player like Tyreek Hill, so he relies on solid pass protection to complete deeper routes. With Geno Smith facing 119 pressures this season — avoiding 14 sacks yet still ranking fourth in total sacks taken — the Seahawks' line will need to step up to sustain these opportunities. Without improvement in pass protection, Smith-Njigba’s aDOT could remain limited, keeping his role closer to the line of scrimmage where he can quickly get open and avoid the impact of a relentless pass rush.

Overall Bad ASS

For once, being a "Bad ASS" isn't a compliment, and the wide receivers on this list have some work to do. In the NFL, separation is crucial — it's what makes a receiver effective.

Those with the lowest Average Separation Scores (ASS) struggle to get open, forcing quarterbacks to make riskier throws. Being on this list suggests issues with route-running, knowing how to beat coverage, speed, or timing with the quarterback.

For these receivers, improving their separation is vital to becoming more reliable targets. The coming weeks will be key as they aim to move off this list and show they're more than just "Bad ASS."

(Minimum 50 routes run)

Mike Williams (PIT)

Williams may be on track to become the number two option for Pittsburgh by the end of the season, but he hasn’t yet shown much ability to create separation, which likely limits him to being the clear number two or even number three target in this Steelers offense. Known for his contested-catch skills, Williams has long relied on his ability to make tough grabs rather than gaining space from defenders. The positive side, however, is that he’s playing alongside Russell Wilson, a quarterback who has consistently allowed his receivers to capitalize on those contested opportunities throughout his career.

While Williams will have chances to improve his metrics and work toward a better performance, I don’t foresee him rising out of his current standing among secondary receiving options, unlike what we saw with Davante Adams, who transformed his game. Williams’ role as a contested-catch specialist provides stability, but it doesn’t project the upward trajectory that would elevate him from his current role, which keeps him securely in the WR2/3 conversation within the Steelers’ scheme.

Quentin Johnston (LAC)

Johnston remains among the lowest in Adjusted Success Score (A.S.S.) rankings, but he’s a receiver who will likely have explosive games due to the strategic support of his coaching staff and the skill of quarterback Justin Herbert. Defenses are struggling to adapt to Greg Roman's offense, which has leaned heavily into the passing game this season with Herbert at the helm. As Ryan notes, much of Johnston's production this year has come from exploiting broken coverages, giving him openings to deliver big plays.

To his credit, Johnston showed some promising development this past weekend, posting a 23.8% win rate and a .238 A.S.S. score. This is a positive sign for Chargers fans, as it suggests the team didn’t miss on him as a draft pick. Johnston’s ability to capitalize on splash-play opportunities adds a dynamic element to the offense, especially alongside emerging talents like Ladd McConkey. Chargers fans have reason to be optimistic about Johnston’s growth and his potential role as a playmaker in this developing offensive scheme.

Notable Weekly ASS

(Minimum 20 routes run)

Davante Adams (NYJ)

The Jets have emerged as a force in the receiving game this season, boasting two wide receivers, Adams and Garrett Wilson, in the top 10 of A.S.S. metrics this week. Their recent performance against the Texans was nothing short of impressive, despite a few missed opportunities from Rodgers. This duo’s potential is beginning to resemble the high expectations placed on Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua when fully healthy. If the Jets’ offensive line can hold strong, we’ll likely see an uptick in points from their offense.

The timing couldn't be better, as the Jets’ upcoming schedule features a stretch of games against some of the league's most vulnerable secondaries — teams like the Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Rams, with a bye week in between. Each team has notable gaps in their defensive backfield, providing prime matchups for Adams and Wilson to exploit. With postseason aspirations on the line, this run of games offers a pivotal opportunity for the Jets to secure their playoff position, especially with their potent receiving duo set to challenge and outmatch these struggling defenses.

Josh Downs (IND)

With Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback, Downs is set to deliver in PPR formats. When Flacco is under center, Downs has proven to be a focal point in the passing game, boasting a 33.8% first-read share. He’s also efficient, averaging 2.74 yards per route run, with an impressive 37% target-per-route-run rate. This level of involvement highlights Downs as a primary option in Flacco's progression, a role that sets him up well for reliable PPR production.

Though Downs posted a modest stat line last week with just 3 receptions for 22 yards, that game likely represented his floor. His 15% win rate underscores his ability to create separation and position himself as Flacco’s go-to target. With a clear role in the offense, Downs is positioned to bounce back after underperforming against the Vikings and probably having a big reception total against the Bills.

Breakout Performance This Weekend

Ricky Pearsall (SF)

The big news heading into Week 10 is that Christian McCaffrey is expected to make his return to the 49ers.

But I think after Week 10, the attention is going to be going Pearsall’s way. The rookie WR has appeared in two games this year, in which he’s posted an 8.7% win rate and a 0.043 A.S.S. score. This is a matchup against a Tampa Bay team that stops the run well but gets torched through the air, and the Bucs will have all of their eyes on CMC, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.

I also think that after his 77-yard performance against the Dallas Cowboys, Pearsall will become a bigger part of their offense during their bye week.