The A.S.S. Report: 2024 Week 4

Every week I will be diving into the Fantasy Points Data to provide our readers with actionable and winning insights into your season. This week provided a lot of valuable data points for things going forward and showcased some of the major improvements players have made. I will focus mainly on ASS (Average Separation Score) but blend in plenty of metrics that offer a full picture, like first-read targets.

If you are new to the term ASS don’t worry — we have covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts.

Top ASS Overall

(Minimum 40 routes run)

Chris Olave (NO)

Olave is one of the smoothest route runners in the NFL. His efficiency is reflected in his Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) of 2.94, indicating his productivity on a per-route basis. And it's no surprise to see his A.S.S. reflect that. While his production hasn’t been flashy with 100-yard performances every week, he’s consistently put up solid numbers, with three straight games of 80+ receiving yards despite not having a significant target share. Olave has been competing with Rashid Shaheed for opportunities in the passing game, but it’s time for the Saints to shift their focus. Shaheed has become the go-to option for big plays, but it's clear that leaning too heavily on him for explosive moments has its limitations. Olave’s first-read percentage sits at 27.9%, trailing behind Shaheed’s 32.4%. Given how Olave consistently creates separation, it’s time to prioritize him for chunk plays and allow him to fully take advantage of his elite route running.

Olave’s involvement in the offense is clear, with an Air Yard Share of 32.0% and a Target Share of 22.8%, showing how central he is to the Saints' passing attack. This weekend against the Chiefs, Derek Carr may not have the luxury of time to hunt for deep shots, especially given the way Kansas City has schemed to neutralize WR1s in recent matchups. The Chiefs’ defense has been effective at shutting down top receivers, but with Shaheed's role focused on the deep ball, there's a good chance they may key in on taking away those big-play opportunities. If that happens, it could open the door for the Saints to finally make a shift toward targeting Olave more. His ability to win at every level of the field makes him an ideal candidate to exploit the Chiefs' cornerbacks, and it’s time for New Orleans to get creative in getting him the ball. Olave could be the key to keeping the offense moving against a defense that has clamped down on the main receiving threat.

Michael Wilson (ARZ)

I had the privilege of attending the Senior Bowl when Michael Wilson was there, and his work ethic immediately stood out to me. He was the first on the field for every practice, constantly working on the one area his size required improvement—his footwork. That dedication is now paying off for this Arizona team, as Wilson continues to develop into a reliable option in their offense. With Trey McBride sidelined, Wilson is poised to step up as the team’s number two option. He’s been seeing increased involvement, with 16 targets over the last two weeks, and his production has been evident both on film and in his stats. He now faces a tough 49ers defense, but it’s worth noting that Wilson had a standout game against them last year, posting 7 receptions for 76 yards and two touchdowns.

A lot of the 49ers' defensive attention will be focused on Marvin Harrison Jr. and the run game, led by James Conner. This opens the door for Wilson to capitalize on the matchup, especially considering that other WR2s have found success against San Francisco, such as Allen Lazard in Week 1 and Jalen Nailor in Week 2. Wilson’s involvement in the passing game has increased significantly, with a first-read share of 31.8% over the last two weeks, matching Harrison’s share. Given this, Wilson is in a strong position to have another productive outing against a formidable defense, especially with his proven ability to take advantage of opportunities when the spotlight shifts elsewhere. If you are dealing with bye weeks with injuries, Wilson is set up for success.

Ja’Lynn Polk (NE)

The New England Patriots’ offensive line has been an easy scapegoat for the lack of production in Ja’Lynn Polk's direction. Jacoby Brissett has been under constant pressure, facing a 44.7% pressure rate on his dropbacks and suffering 15 sacks so far this season. Despite the challenges, Polk’s recent seven-target game and his newly earned full-time role in the offense signal that he’s on the verge of a breakout. If the Patriots can manage to protect their quarterback in an upcoming game, Polk is positioned to have an explosive performance. For dynasty fantasy football managers, Polk is a prime buy-low candidate, especially for teams not contending this season.

What makes Polk even more intriguing is his increasing involvement in the offense. While he hasn’t been the first read for many weeks, he hit a 28% first-read rate in his latest game. If this trend continues, the volume of targets coming his way will be enough to justify the buy-low strategy, potentially leading to a productive asset for dynasty managers moving forward. Additionally, Polk commanded over 60% of the team's air yards this past weekend, indicating that when he does break through, it’s likely to result in a massive week. All signs point to Polk being on the verge of a significant fantasy impact, especially if the Patriots can resolve their protection issues. There’s also the chance we see Drake Maye takeover at some point, and the rookie will likely go Polk’s way down the field quite a bit.

Overall Bad ASS

For once, being a "Bad ASS" isn't a compliment, and the wide receivers on this list have some work to do. In the NFL, separation is crucial — it's what makes a receiver effective.

Those with the lowest Average Separation Scores (ASS) struggle to get open, forcing quarterbacks to make riskier throws. Being on this list suggests issues with route-running, knowledge of how to beat coverage, speed, or timing with the quarterback.

For these receivers, improving their separation is vital to becoming more reliable targets. The coming weeks will be key as they aim to move off this list and show they're more than just "Bad ASS."

(Minimum 50 routes run)

Courtland Sutton (DEN)

Courtland Sutton’s 32.6% first-read target share, aDOT of 14.1, and 25.4% overall target share might look impressive at first glance, but his -0.026 separation score reveals a lot about his playing style and limitations. Sutton is a big-bodied receiver who thrives on contested catches, relying on his physicality to make plays rather than creating natural separation. While the volume is clearly there, his inability to consistently separate from defenders is concerning, especially when evaluating long-term productivity. For fantasy managers, this is a key red flag. Despite Sutton's heavy involvement, he lacks one of the most crucial traits in a receiver—getting open.

Sutton may still finish the season with a solid touchdown total due to his red zone prowess or simply by sheer target volume, but relying on a player with these limitations can lead to inconsistent and frustrating outcomes. The risk of poor stat lines is higher for a receiver who can't consistently separate, and those contested catches don't always translate to dependable production week to week. While Sutton’s usage suggests he'll have his moments, I would consider moving him from my lineups, particularly in favor of a more reliable player who can separate and generate consistent value. For example, give me Darnell Mooney over Courtland Sutton rest of season.

Mike Williams & Allen Lazard (NYJ)

It’s no surprise that the Jets still lack a reliable number two receiver to support Garrett Wilson consistently. Both Williams and Lazard struggle to separate and are in the league lows in ASS, and while they’ve accumulated some yards and targets early in the season, much of that is due to the heavy attention defenses place on Wilson. This past weekend, Aaron Rodgers attempted over 40 passes without throwing a touchdown for the fourth time ever, a clear sign of the struggles in the passing game. While the weather played a role in the poor performance, the larger issue remains the lack of a secondary threat to divert attention from Wilson. Without a dependable option to alleviate the pressure, Wilson is often forced to shoulder the entire burden in the offense.

I mentioned Davante Adams as a trade target in last week's ASS report, and that move is beginning to make even more sense for the Jets. The team needs to prioritize acquiring Adams to fill the void at WR2, with the noise that the Raiders are listening to offers. Adams would immediately provide the reliability and playmaking ability this offense desperately needs. More importantly, his presence would create a dynamic pairing with Wilson, allowing the young receiver to learn from one of the best in the game while giving Aaron Rodgers another trusted target.

Wilson and Rodgers have yet to fully sync up, and bringing in Adams could help unlock the full potential of the Jets’ passing attack. For this offense to succeed and counter the coverages focused on Wilson, they need a veteran like Adams to balance the field and open things up for their young star. I know Adams has not been able to separate at a high level this year, but that’s a product of how the whole situation is with the Raiders over who he is as a player.

Notable Weekly ASS

(Minimum 10 routes run)

Jordan Addison (MIN)

Jordan Addison returning to the Vikings and delivering such a standout performance is a troubling sight for the rest of the NFL. There were several moments in the game where I mistook Addison's catches for Justin Jefferson’s, which speaks volumes about how well Addison is playing. The combination of Jefferson, Addison, and Jalen Nailor gives Kevin O’Connell a lethal set of weapons in the passing game, and it’s almost a given that someone from this receiving corps will produce big numbers each weekend. With Addison continuing to establish himself, this trio has the potential to become one of the most dynamic units in the league.

Addison capped off the week with the top A.S.S. score and an impressive win rate, proving he's more than capable of carrying the load in the passing game if teams want to pay extra attention to Jefferson. While the Jets will be a tough challenge this coming weekend, the schedule softens significantly afterward, with matchups against the Lions, Rams, Colts, and Jaguars. All of these games provide exciting opportunities for this Vikings' passing offense to shine.

Both the Lions and Jaguars run man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, and Addison boasts a 40% win rate against man coverage, with Nailor even better at 55.6%. Surprisingly, Jefferson has the lowest win rate at 29.2%, but with all three receivers operating at a high level, this group is primed for a strong stretch of games. It's going to be an exciting ride for this WR room, and the production is bound to follow in the weeks ahead.

Xavier Legette (CAR)

Last week, I expressed some doubt about whether Legette could step up in the absence of Adam Thielen, but he proved me wrong with an impressive performance in an easy matchup. The opportunity is clearly there for Legette on a team that’s struggling, and if he continues to create separation like he did this past weekend, he’s poised to be a productive player moving forward. His ability to step up when given the chance bodes well for his role in this offense, especially with the team's need for playmakers.

What’s even more promising is Legette’s involvement in the offense, as he posted a first-read target share of 31.0%, putting him in the bucket with some names such as CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, and Justin Jefferson. The coaching staff made a clear effort to get him the ball in higher percentage areas of the field, allowing him to capitalize on his greatest strength—yards after the catch (YAC). While it’s uncertain whether this trend will hold against tougher competition, Legette has solidified himself as the second-most talented receiver on the roster. He should be in line for consistent WR2 duties week in and week out, offering solid upside in the passing game because the Panthers' defense has been dismantled with injuries, and we know they will be trailing.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARZ)

I remember when everyone was concerned about Harrison Jr.’s Week 1 performance against the Bills, but since then, he’s been on fire, not only separating at an impressive rate but also scoring four touchdowns in his last three games. Despite his quiet stat line last weekend against the Commanders, the film showed that he was consistently winning his matchups. The issue wasn’t with Harrison—it was with Kyler Murray not finding him often enough, compounded by an offensive line that didn’t give Murray the time needed to hit him on deeper routes. Harrison is clearly showing why he was so highly touted coming into the league.

This weekend presents a huge opportunity for Harrison as the Cardinals take on the 49ers. Given the strength of San Francisco’s offense, it’s unlikely that the Cardinals will be able to slow them down, which should lead to a negative game script for Arizona. That scenario should result in more passing volume, and Harrison is in prime position to capitalize. With the Cardinals needing to put points on the board to keep up, expect Harrison to see more targets and emerge as a major contributor in this matchup.

Breakout Performance This Weekend

Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX)

If the Jaguars can get more consistent play from Trevor Lawrence, Thomas Jr. has the potential to deliver some explosive performances as a rookie wide receiver. Quietly, Thomas is on pace for 72 receptions and 1,169 receiving yards, which would put him in the top 15 all-time and that’s impressive, considering he hasn't yet had a breakout game yet. That big game feels imminent, and it could very well come this weekend. The Jaguars desperately need a win at home against the Colts, and given the struggles of Indianapolis' defense this season, Jacksonville has a great opportunity to find their rhythm.

The Colts’ defensive game log shows they've been vulnerable, and if the Jaguars can exploit those weaknesses, Thomas is primed for a standout performance. The combination of his route running and ability to make plays after the catch makes him a perfect candidate to take advantage of this matchup. If Lawrence can elevate his game, Thomas could be in line for his first true breakout, potentially vaulting him into an even more significant role as the season progresses. Last weekend, he posted a .417 A.S.S. score, and the film room is going to lead to Doug Pederson chasing the explosive plays his way.

Summarized

Chris Olave continues to impress with his route running and consistent production, even though he's competing for targets in the Saints' offense. With three straight 80+ yard games, Olave is poised for a bigger role, especially as the Saints take on a Chiefs defense that’s been good at shutting down WR1s. The Saints need to focus more on getting Olave involved in chunk plays to exploit his separation skills. Similarly, Michael Wilson has stepped up for the Cardinals with increased involvement, and his past success against the 49ers makes him a strong candidate for another productive game this weekend. Wilson's growing role in the Arizona offense, particularly with a high first-read share, puts him in a position to shine.

Other receivers like Ja'Lynn Polk and Jordan Addison are also trending upward. Polk has shown improvement despite the Patriots’ offensive struggles, with rising target share and a solid separation rate, setting him up as a potential breakout player in fantasy leagues. Addison has delivered strong performances for the Vikings and, with favorable matchups ahead, he is set for continued success alongside Justin Jefferson. Rookie receivers like Xavier Legette and Marvin Harrison Jr. have also stepped up in their respective offenses, while Brian Thomas Jr. of the Jaguars is quietly on pace for a big season and could be on the verge of a breakout performance against the Colts this weekend.