The A.S.S. Report: 2024 Week 3

Every week I will be diving into the Fantasy Points Data to provide our readers with actionable and winning insights into your season. This week provided a lot of valuable data points for things going forward and showcased some of the major improvements players have made. I will focus mainly on ASS (Average Separation Score) but blend in plenty of metrics that offer a full picture, like first-read targets.

If you are new to the term ASS and don’t worry — we have covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts.

Top ASS Overall

(Minimum 40 routes run)

Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings (SF)

Aiyuk currently ranks second in the NFL in Average Separation Score (ASS) with a 36.8% win rate, and it's only a matter of time before he starts producing at a higher level. The matchup against the Rams was primed for him, but Jauan Jennings stepped up and played his best game as a pro. When a quarterback finds a rhythm with a receiver, they tend to stick with that hot hand. Aiyuk has only been back practicing for four weeks, and it's clear that the timing between him and the offense is still being fine-tuned.

The upcoming schedule poses some challenges for Aiyuk’s production. This week, he faces Christian Gonzalez, who has been playing exceptional football. Two weeks later, he faces a Mike Macdonald defense that gave Kyle Shanahan trouble last season. After that, the 49ers face the Chiefs, a team known for shutting down primary receiving options at a high rate. While the Cardinals game looks like a great opportunity for Aiyuk to produce, beyond that, it might be a chance to buy low on him during this rough stretch. With matchups against the Cowboys and Buccaneers on the horizon, Aiyuk could turn things around soon. As Scott’s tweet indicates, his separation ranks show the big games are coming.

Meanwhile, Jauan Jennings has proven to be a key piece in the offense until the 49ers’ other top players return. For now, he seems to be the main complementary option, and no one else is likely to step into a bigger role until those reinforcements arrive.

CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

CeeDee Lamb hasn’t had that explosive breakout game like Brandon Aiyuk, but that’s not entirely surprising, given the missed time and holdouts they've dealt with. There have been several plays each game where Dak Prescott’s throws to Lamb have been just a little off — either slightly underthrown or off target — which has kept the offense from producing the big plays we know they’re capable of. On top of that, the Cowboys' defense has struggled, putting the offense in obvious passing situations where teams can easily double-team Lamb.

This week, the Cowboys' defense should hold up better, which means Lamb will have more opportunities to get the ball. He made it clear on the sidelines that he wants to be more involved, and if we look back to last season, when he spoke up after the 49ers loss (where he only saw five targets), it sparked a massive uptick in production. Over the next four games, Lamb averaged 12.8 targets, 10.3 receptions, and 154.3 receiving yards. A similar stretch of dominance could be on the horizon, and I expect Lamb to remind everyone of his greatness over the next three weeks, especially against the Giants, Steelers, and Lions.

Luke McCaffrey (WAS)

McCaffrey hasn’t yet carved out a significant role in this offense, but he’s separating at a high level during his limited playing time. It's likely the coaching staff is noticing this in their film study, and I expect his playtime to increase, potentially at the expense of players like Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, or Noah Brown. McCaffrey has made big plays and caught every target that’s come his way, but his first-read share is low in Kliff Kingsbury's offense, which has limited his opportunities so far.

Right now, McCaffrey is a stash on your bench, but if his snap count increases, the production should follow. I don’t think McCaffrey will ever be an alpha in the offense, but he can take over the middle-of-the-field role that Zach Ertz is dominating right now. Keep an eye on his usage because his potential for a bigger role is there, and the production could come quickly once it does.

Overall Bad ASS

For once, being a "Bad ASS" isn't a compliment, and the wide receivers on this list have some work to do. In the NFL, separation is crucial — it's what makes a receiver effective.

Those with the lowest Average Separation Scores (ASS) struggle to get open, forcing quarterbacks to make riskier throws. Being on this list suggests issues with route-running, knowledge of how to beat coverage, speed, or timing with the quarterback.

For these receivers, improving their separation is vital to becoming more reliable targets. The coming weeks will be key as they aim to move off this list and show they're more than just "Bad ASS."

(Minimum 40 routes run)

Davante Adams (LVR)

Adams needs to move on from the Raiders' system, and I fully expect a trade could happen closer to the deadline. Despite everything, I still believe he’s one of the best wide receivers in the league, but the constant defensive attention, inconsistent quarterback play, and the Raiders' offensive scheme are severely limiting his production. On top of that, age eventually affects all receivers, and his 7.1% win rate is a major concern. He’s still finding a way to produce a little bit, but this situation is one where I hope he makes the business decision to get traded.

The only spot I would want Adams is if he were traded to the Jets, as I think he could regain consistent fantasy value. However, if he ends up with any other team, I’d consider selling him, given the inconsistency we've seen and how long it might take for him to adapt to a new offense. If he were traded to like the Buffalo Bills or Kansas City Chiefs, I’d sell high immediately, as his value might peak based on hype, without the certainty of sustained production in those situations.

Quentin Johnston (LAC)

Johnston's performance is a product of a system that’s functioning well, and his scores this year were not surprising given the opponent. The Chargers have built a strong foundation, and their offensive identity allows Johnston to have spike weeks, particularly against weaker teams. His route tree is relatively simple, focusing on Curls, Drags, Gos, and Screens. This past weekend, on one of those Go routes, the Steelers committed heavily to defending the run, leaving Johnston wide open for a touchdown. Without that play, his day would have been much quieter with just one catch for 17 yards.

As the season progresses, we can expect more of these bust performances from Johnston. He’s one of the few WRs to have a win rate at just 6.8% and he is still not a great WR. I fully anticipate a different Chargers wide receiver to emerge as the true #1 by the season’s end, and I discuss that player in the next section.

Xavier Legette (CAR)

The loss of Adam Thielen is going to force Legette and Jonathan Mingo into larger roles within the Panthers’ offense. However, Legette isn’t quite ready for the spotlight just yet, and to be productive, his role needs to stay as simple as possible. He struggles to separate on a wide variety of routes, but if he’s utilized in a route structure similar to what we see from Quentin Johnston, there’s potential for success.

This Panthers offense will likely lean heavily on the run game and target Diontae Johnson as their primary option in the passing game. Mingo and Legette will likely be called upon for a few key plays per game, but if you invested a lot of FAAB in them this week, it’s wise to temper expectations for significant production moving forward.

Notable Weekly ASS

(Minimum 10 routes run)

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)

Chase delivered as expected against a Commanders defense that has struggled to defend opposing teams’ #1 wide receivers. Scott set the stage for this all week, and I highlighted Chase as a breakout player for several reasons. Given Chase's talent, this performance was no surprise, but it was crucial for him and Joe Burrow to find their rhythm together. Chase didn’t post a crazy high ASS score, but the throws Burrow made his way and his ability to keep defenders off him were tremendous.

Now, the Bengals face a must-win scenario with the Panthers up next, and it promises to be an interesting matchup. Chase will likely be bracketed, with Jaycee Horn getting help over the top to limit his big-play potential. It will be fascinating to see how they navigate this challenge and, if he’s slowed down, whether Tee Higgins can step up to fill the void. This game will be a true test of the Bengals' offense and their ability to get creativity.

Ladd McConkey (LAC)

McConkey had a very impressive week on film, showing signs of a potential late-season breakout. This was his first big week as a pro in terms of ASS, and he posted a 50% win rate out wide on the limited routes he ran. While Quentin Johnston is the big-play threat for this offense, McConkey could emerge as a reliable volume producer, especially in games where the team faces a negative game script.

We have yet to see the Chargers in such a situation with Justin Herbert this season, but when it happens, McConkey’s role will expand significantly. His ability to separate and win on his routes positions him as a key target in those scenarios, making him someone to watch closely as the season progresses. They aren’t going to be losing to the bad teams in the NFL, but there are teams that can score on them coming up: Chiefs, Cardinals, and Saints.

Terry McLaurin (WAS)

McLaurin didn’t crack the top 12 this week, but his 23.1% win rate is still impressive, especially considering the lack of creativity in the Commanders' offense. He ran 9 vertical routes and posted a .667 Average Separation Score (ASS) on those routes against a Bengals team that was well aware of his limited route tree. The game-winning touchdown was a go route against off coverage and he managed to make the defensive back bite and beat him deep.

While the Commanders won’t always be able to block as effectively against tougher defenses, it’s encouraging to see Jayden Daniels finding a rhythm with McLaurin. If they can continue to build on this connection, McLaurin’s production could improve significantly as the season progresses.

Break Out Performance This Weekend

Tank Dell (HST)

If you drafted Dell at his ADP, you’re likely frustrated with his production so far. However, it's important not to be too discouraged. The matchups he's faced have been against elite secondaries and defensive schemes. To date, only the Texans and Treylon Burks have managed over a 10% win rate against the Bears defense. Dell was getting open against the Vikings last weekend, but Brian Flores' defense overwhelmed their offensive line, making it tough for explosive plays to develop. The Texans' offense is still finding its rhythm, especially with pass protection, which has limited their ability to get comfortable, and this week. I expect that to change.

The Jaguars presents a more favorable opportunity. The Jaguars run man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL and are currently missing their top corner, Tyson Campbell, while other members of the secondary are dealing with injuries. Last week, every Bills receiver posted a win rate over 15% against the Jaguars, with only Marquez Valdes-Scantling falling under a .100 Average Separation Score (ASS). Dell’s history against the Jaguars is strong — last season, he had 15 targets, 10 receptions, 195 yards, and two touchdowns in two games, with a .259 ASS and a 27.6% win rate, the highest of any player to face them twice. This could be the week Dell breaks out, as the matchup is what we look for in a breakout.