The A.S.S. Report: 2024 Week 2

Every week I will be diving into the Fantasy Points Data to provide our readers with actionable and winning insights into your season. This week provided a lot of valuable data points for things going forward and showcased some of the major improvements players have made. I will focus mainly on ASS (Average Separation Score) but blend in plenty of metrics that offer a full picture, like first-read targets.

If you are new to the term ASS and don’t worry — we have covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts.

Top ASS Overall

(Minimum 20 routes run)

Jalen Nailor (MIN)

Nailor's development as a wide receiver is definitely something to watch, and his high effort level is helping him earn more playing time. I tagged the 97-yard Justin Jefferson touchdown below because it was Nailor's crucial block that paved the way for Jefferson to reach the end zone. That kind of hustle is something every teammate will appreciate when they review the film.

But we are here to talk ASS, and Nailor’s ASS is making a strong case for more playing time. With a top 10 overall score, a 0.375 score on horizontal routes, and a .800 on vertical routes, he's proving to be a valuable asset for the Vikings. His ability to win deep and on intermediate routes helps free up Justin Jefferson, and with Jordan Addison sidelined, Nailor is ready to play into the full-time role in his absence. This weekend, they’ll be playing the Texans, and in Week 1, we saw Adonai Mitchell, Alec Pierce, and Michael Pittman Jr. post high win rates on these Vertical routes.

Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed (NOR)

In my debut article with Fantasy Points, I broke down how playcallers can impact separation scores, and Saints OC Klint Kubiak was one of the names on the list. So far, the Saints have two players in the Top 10 of ASS and have 443 yards passing on 39 passing attempts. The efficiency cannot be sustained, but they haven’t had a lot of volume, and their ability to set up big plays has been elite so far.

The Saints' offense blends elements of the 49ers and Dolphins, using motion and play action to great effect. Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave provide the speed, much like the Dolphins' playmakers, while Alvin Kamara’s dual-threat ability as a rusher and receiver sets it all up. These three are the first read on 70% of plays, and with their play-action setup, it's no surprise Shaheed leads with a 26.7% target share and that he’s had a negative ASS rate at 3.1%. The NFL will have to start respecting Shaheed’s abilities more, and as a result, we will see the production for Olave rise. Hopefully, the Eagles offense can score some points on the Saints and we get to see this offense try to score for four quarters.

George Pickens (PIT)

Pickens is playing like one of the top wide receivers in football right now and deserves a lot of love his way. He’s seen two of the best cornerbacks in football that secured over $175 million dollars of money this offseason and has beaten both of them on a high amount of plays. His box score stats won’t tell you that, but boss man Scott Barrett breaks that down for us below.

We all don’t like Arthur Smith, but we all should remember the incredibly efficient years he had with AJ Brown in Tennessee. That’s what I see when I watch George Pickens. It’s not going to happen every week, but when he explodes, the fantasy production is going to follow, and that production is coming soon. The Steelers have a tough matchup with the Chargers this weekend, but Week 4 against the Colts will lead to a monster week for Pickens. The Colts cannot defend the run, and that will set up play action, which will lead to big plays going Pickens’ way.

Overall Bad ASS

For once, being a "Bad ASS" isn't a compliment, and the wide receivers on this list have some work to do. In the NFL, separation is crucial — it's what makes a receiver effective.

Those with the lowest Average Separation Scores (ASS) struggle to get open, forcing quarterbacks to make riskier throws. Being on this list suggests issues with route-running, knowledge of how to beat coverage, speed, or timing with the quarterback.

For these receivers, improving their separation is vital to becoming more reliable targets. The coming weeks will be key as they aim to move off this list and show they're more than just "Bad ASS."

(Minimum 20 routes run)

Chris Godwin (TB)

Godwin's 17.1% win rate and 29.3% negative rate has resulted in a poor ASS score, but his impressive 4.65 yards per route run shows why context matters in evaluating players. Godwin doesn’t rely on high separation to be a valuable fantasy option — his ability to win just enough makes him consistently productive. It also helps when you are the first read for your team at a 34.2% rate (12th in the NFL), and have 25% of your targets be designed plays. Godwin will give you a high floor in fantasy, but if you are not contending and can get a younger player that’s separating at high rates I would be doing so in my leagues.

While it's not ideal that Godwin isn’t separating much, it isn’t necessarily a problem for fantasy managers. We know who Godwin is: a reliable, high-floor player moving forward. If he were separating at the levels of CeeDee Lamb or Amon-Ra St. Brown, his fantasy outlook would jump into that elite tier. Until then, Godwin remains a steady, dependable option. OC Liam Cohen loves to feature his slot players, and Godwin will continue producing.

Diontae Johnson (Car)

Bryce Young's struggles have been a major setback for the Panthers' offense, and a switch to Andy Dalton could provide a much-needed boost, especially after the offensive line's improved performance last weekend. Dalton, a veteran with experience managing offenses with talent, showed in his lone start that he can make the most of open players — a stark contrast to Young, who missed several opportunities. In that start, Dalton targeted Adam Thielen and DJ Chark on 43.1% of his throws. Expect him to continue leaning on Thielen and Diontae Johnson this weekend as he aims to stabilize the offense. This is a critical week for Canales to prove it was Bryce Young who was the issue and that he can provide a functional offense with a veteran QB.

Notable Weekly ASS

(Minimum 10 routes run)

Drake London (ATL)

Kirk Cousins got better as the game progressed against the Eagles, which was evident in the final drive when he moved the ball efficiently to Darnell Mooney and capped it off with a score to Drake London. This week, the Falcons face the Kansas City Chiefs, and this matchup is intriguing. The Chiefs have successfully neutralized top targets in back-to-back weeks, using bracket coverage to take away TE Mark Andrews and WR Ja’Marr Chase. This forced those teams to rely on secondary options, who struggled to convert in the red zone. For the Falcons, Drake London will likely draw that top coverage, creating opportunities for Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud. Mooney, in particular, is set up for a big week as he ranks second on the team in first-read target share and leads the offense in routes run at 91.5%. I think London’s going to have a very low output, and be used to clear space for everybody else.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF)

Aiyuk looked sharp this past weekend, posting a Top 10 ASS score, but the Brian Flores-led defense kept the 49ers' offense on its heels. This week, without Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey, Aiyuk is set up for a massive performance. The Rams' defense will likely need to bring an extra safety into the box to contain Jordan Mason in the run game, leaving them vulnerable on the outside. With their cornerbacks struggling to match up, Aiyuk should see plenty of favorable opportunities. Kyle Shanahan will look to exploit these mismatches and feed Aiyuk, making him the focal point of the offense. The Rams’ injuries and defensive limitations will lead to a big day for Aiyuk.

Break Out Performance This Weekend

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)

This is the week Ja’Marr Chase goes off. The Commanders have struggled to defend top options all season—Mike Evans and Malik Nabers both posted over 30% win rates against their cornerbacks. Chase’s recent quiet games were more about the Chiefs’ defensive game plan, which involved bracketing him and having Trent McDuffie shadow him throughout the game. The Bengals' explosive passing game often takes a few weeks to hit its stride, and at 0-2, back at home against the Commanders, this feels like the perfect setup for a breakout performance from Chase and the entire Bengals offense. Expect a big game as they look to turn things around.

Summarized

Understanding metrics like ASS (Average Separation Score) can provide a deeper insight into player performance and potential breakout opportunities. This week’s data highlights players like Jalen Nailor, Rashid Shaheed, and Brandon Aiyuk as prime candidates to step up in their respective offenses due to favorable matchups and evolving team dynamics. Meanwhile, steady options like Chris Godwin continue to prove their value despite lower separation scores, showing that context is crucial when evaluating fantasy assets.

For players like George Pickens and Ja'Marr Chase, who have faced tough defensive schemes or unfavorable situations, the potential for high-impact performances remains strong as they navigate matchups that better suit their skills. As the season progresses, these insights will help in making strategic decisions, whether it's capitalizing on high-ASS performers or identifying "buy-low" opportunities among proven talents. Staying tuned to these evolving dynamics will be key to fantasy success, especially with upcoming matchups that could change the narrative for several teams and players.

Stay tuned for next week's ASS Report as we dive deeper into these scores and what we can learn going forward.