Every week, I will be diving into the Fantasy Points Data to provide our readers with actionable and winning insights into your season. This week provided a lot of valuable data points for things going forward and showcased some of the major improvements players have made. I will focus mainly on ASS (Average Separation Score) but blend in plenty of metrics that offer a full picture, like first-read targets.
If you are new to the term ASS don’t worry — we have covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts.
Top ASS Overall
(Minimum 100 routes run)
Jameson Williams (DET)
The issues with Williams off the field have been resolved, and he has seamlessly returned to the role he held before his suspension. The Lions' offense primarily operates through the run game, but the passing attack is built around Amon-Ra St. Brown and Williams. Williams holds a valuable role in the offense, with the deeper area route tree, an aDOT of 16.3, and a first-read target share of 24.8%. I’m confident in his ability to bounce back after the Houston game.
Importantly, the Lions don’t have another outdoor game until Week 16 against the Bears, and while Chicago in late December could present challenges, the upcoming slate offers explosive matchups. Both the Jaguars and Colts rank in the bottom 10 of the NFL in pressure rate this season. This sets the stage for the Lions' passing game to find its rhythm in the coming weeks, a trend I expect to continue until that Week 16 contest.
Williams could easily deliver multiple 100-yard receiving games to close the season. Against the Texans, he was on the verge of a big performance, but the offensive line struggled to provide enough protection, and Goff was unable to get it done. Even so, he posted a 36.4% win rate on horizontally breaking routes and a 14.3% win rate on vertically breaking routes, showing the potential for explosive plays. The offensive line should hold up, and Williams has all the tools to turn opportunities into game-changing performances.
Nico Collins (HST)
The Texans have struggled offensively this season, but Nico Collins is emerging as their much-needed savior. In games in which Collins played start to finish, he was on pace for over 2,000 receiving yards, highlighting just how critical he is to their success. Collins boasts one of the highest separation scores this season, solidifying himself as the alpha receiver the team desperately needs to pair with Tank Dell.
Dell’s production has dipped recently, largely because opposing defenses haven’t had to account for Collins and can instead focus on pressuring C.J. Stroud. Stroud has faced relentless pressure, with 158 pressured dropbacks this season—far more than the next closest QB, Daniel Jones, at 136. While Collins can’t directly improve the offensive line’s protection, he significantly impacts the team's performance under pressure.
During Weeks 1-4, Stroud averaged 7.60 yards per attempt when pressured, but that number has plummeted to 4.34 yards per attempt in Weeks 6-10. Collins helps alleviate this issue by serving as Stroud’s reliable first read, a YAC machine, and the alpha WR who can move the chains and make big plays. His return will rejuvenate this offense and give Stroud the weapon he needs to elevate the Texans' passing game.
Jordan Addison (MIN)
The film shows that Jordan Addison is performing at a high level, but his production has been limited by Sam Darnold and the offense’s heavy reliance on first reads. Darnold has a first-read percentage of just 19.9%, which pales in comparison to how the Vikings’ offense is funneled through Justin Jefferson, who commands a staggering 35.8% first-read share. Addison is 10th in the NFL in separation score, and the production does not match that for a full-time player.
While Jefferson is one of the NFL’s best, defenses are increasingly effective at bracketing him and taking him out of the game. This has exposed vulnerabilities in the offense, particularly with Darnold under pressure. Since Week 6, Darnold has posted a 4.8% turnover-worthy throw rate, a figure higher than all but five QBs in the league. He has sometimes reverted to his old tendencies, making risky decisions that hinder the offense.
Addison, on the other hand, has showcased elite skills as one of the smoothest route runners in the NFL. The Vikings would benefit from adapting their offensive scheme to rely less on forcing the ball to Jefferson and more on leveraging the other weapons they have, including Addison. By diversifying their approach, the Vikings can create a more balanced and resilient offense capable of consistently moving the ball against even the toughest defenses.
Overall Bad ASS
For once, being a "Bad ASS" isn't a compliment, and the wide receivers on this list have some work to do. In the NFL, separation is crucial — it's what makes a receiver effective.
Those with the lowest Average Separation Scores (ASS) struggle to get open, forcing quarterbacks to make riskier throws. Being on this list suggests issues with route-running, knowledge of how to beat coverage, speed, or timing with the quarterback.
For these receivers, improving their separation is vital to becoming more reliable targets. The coming weeks will be key as they aim to move off this list and show they're more than just "Bad ASS."
(Minimum 75 routes run)
Quentin Johnston (LAC)
I’ve written extensively about Johnston this year, and he’s quickly becoming one of the NFL’s most fascinating case studies. I love what Harbaugh has done with him. Once viewed as a laughingstock during the offseason due to his underwhelming rookie campaign, Johnston is now showing steady growth as a player, thanks to the coaching staff’s ability to correctly utilize his strengths to help the Chargers win games.
A key part of this development is the way his usage has evolved. Johnston has seen an increase in horizontally breaking routes, which has led to a higher overall win rate, moving him away from being pigeonholed as just a vertical threat. As a result, his production has picked up, particularly as the Chargers have increased their dropbacks. Justin Herbert’s elite quarterback play has further elevated Johnston’s performance, making the most of the opportunities that come his way.
I was initially skeptical of a Greg Roman-led offense, but this group has made impressive strides, largely due to Harbaugh’s influence and their ability to adapt to their personnel as the season has progressed. Johnston’s development is a testament to this adaptability, and it’s exciting to see him become a more integral part of the Chargers’ offense.
Notable Weekly ASS
(Minimum 20 routes run)
Adonai Mitchell (IND)
A few weeks ago, I broke down the rookies, and Mitchell was someone I highlighted as having the potential to see the field, given how Pittman had recently performed. While a big breakout didn’t occur against the Bills, Mitchell posted very encouraging metrics for a rookie, especially when compared to others in his class.
Mitchell recorded an A.S.S. score that ranked in the top 10 among WRs against the Bills this season. He also posted a higher separation score than Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, and rookie counterparts Brian Thomas and Marvin Harrison Jr.
This isn’t to suggest that Mitchell is the best WR in the class, but the signs are highly encouraging for his future. Mitchell has demonstrated the ability to win in the short areas of the field and possesses qualities you can’t teach, such as a 6’2" frame and the capability to stretch the field. He has all the tools needed to become a good WR in the NFL, and with Michael Pittman Jr. on the sideline, I fully expect him to showcase his talent and produce.
Courtland Sutton (DEN)
Sutton went without a single target against the Saints earlier this season, but over the last three weeks, he has emerged as a consistent and dynamic presence in the offense. During this stretch, he’s seen 9 targets and recorded at least 70 receiving yards in every game. Not only that, but he’s even contributed as a passer, throwing twice for 30 yards and a touchdown to his rookie quarterback. This developing connection looks poised to stick for the rest of the season.
Sutton’s performance against the Kansas City Chiefs underscores his value—he generated a win rate of 30.8% and succeeded against every cornerback he faced. With no one else in the offense threatening to take targets away from him, Sutton remains a reliable option, even in contested situations where he can make big plays.
The key to his recent success isn’t a dramatic change in his role; rather, it’s his improved execution and ability to win more consistently. As he continues to deliver, Sutton is proving to be a crucial piece of the offense down the stretch.
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
To start the year, I had Ja'Marr Chase as my No. 1 overall WR because I anticipated he’d see enough slot work to increase his weekly involvement. This would free him up to win more frequently on the inside while still dominating on the outside. The best WRs in the NFL excel both inside and outside, and Chase is no exception. Comparing the 2023 season to 2024, it’s clear he’s leading the league in total WR production, showcasing his versatility and dominance.
(2024)
(2023)
This season, we’re seeing Ja'Marr Chase utilized more effectively, with increased opportunities outside when he’s dominating matchups and additional inside work when the matchups favor him there. This balanced approach allows him to take advantage of high-percentage plays while still delivering explosive downfield production. For the Bengals, the priority is simple: getting the ball to Chase in space. This is when he’s been at his most dangerous, producing his most explosive games.
While he won’t face the Ravens again, there’s still plenty of potential for high-level production during the season’s closing stretch. With his ability to win both inside and outside, Chase remains the centerpiece of the Bengals’ offense and a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.
Breakout Performance This Weekend
Brian Thomas Jr (JAX)
The Lions are running man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, setting the stage for what will be a big bounce-back week for the Jaguars. While Mac Jones struggled mightily against Brian Flores’ unique defense, the Jaguars are facing a much different challenge here. The key for them will be simplifying the game plan—getting the ball into the hands of their best playmaker early to set the tone.
Brian Thomas Jr. has been excellent against man coverage this season, boasting a 32.8% win rate. Among WRs with at least 50 routes run against man coverage, he ranks 7th in win rate, showcasing his ability to consistently create separation. With that in mind, I expect Jones to look more comfortable in this game, and a big early throw to Thomas could be what he needs to establish confidence and get the offense rolling. If the Jaguars can capitalize on these opportunities, this could be a turning point for Jones and the offense.
