The A.S.S. Report: 2024 Week 1

Every week I will be diving into the Fantasy Points Data to provide our readers with actionable and winning insights into your season. This week provided a lot of valuable data points for things going forward and showcased some of the major improvements players have made. I will focus mainly on ASS (Average Separation Score) but blend in plenty of metrics that offer a full picture, like first-read targets.

If you are new to the term ASS and don’t worry —we have covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts.

Top ASS in Week 1

(Minimum 10 routes run)

Adonai Mitchell (Ind)

Mitchell's standout performance, highlighted by his appearance at the top of the ASS leaderboard, led me to rewatch the game, and I was even more impressed by his ability to separate from the Texans' defensive backs. Mitchell demonstrated elite separation skills on both horizontal and vertical routes. In fact, he and George Pickens were the only receivers to achieve a win rate of over 40% on both types of route breaks.

While Alec Pierce garnered much of the attention with his deep catch from Anthony Richardson, it was Mitchell's consistent ability to win across a variety of routes and against both man and zone coverage that truly stood out. Despite only facing man coverage on a small percentage of his routes, Mitchell posted a remarkable 75% win rate in those situations. If Richardson had been more accurate when targeting Mitchell, we'd likely be talking about a breakout rookie debut. Unfortunately, Mitchell had just one catchable target on Sunday and TWO walk-in TDs had Richardson accurately thrown the ball. This is a classic case of a player performing at a high level, but his quarterback's inaccuracies prevent the box score from reflecting his true impact.

Next week’s matchup offers some intriguing possibilities. The Packers struggled against A.J. Brown but defended DeVonta Smith well with a surprising negative ASS score, suggesting they handle savvy route runners well but might struggle against a receiver who combines size, athleticism, and route running—qualities Mitchell possesses.

Additionally, if Josh Downs suits up, the snap distribution between Mitchell and Alec Pierce will be worth watching. Finally, the key question is whether Anthony Richardson can connect with Mitchell and leverage his separation skills. If they find that chemistry, a breakout game could be in the making.

Jameson Williams (Det)

Williams’ Week 1 performance was special for several reasons. It was his first season opener as a pro, and his earlier "struggles" stemmed mostly from missed time, which affected his ability to build chemistry within the offense. Throughout the offseason, Dan Campbell consistently praised William's growth, and the Lions clearly saw what he could bring to the table, with Jared Goff making him the first read on 42.9% of plays.

While that number won't hold steady, it’s clear that Ben Johnson and Goff view his speed as a mismatch, one the Rams couldn’t contain. After connecting on some deep shots, the Lions effectively switched to David Montgomery as a power runner to close out the game. With this balanced attack, Detroit can beat you with speed or power—it’s up to the opponent to decide which threat they’d rather face.

For Amon-Ra St. Brown's managers, there’s no need for concern. He still saw six targets, was the second-most frequent first read, and posted a strong separation score. This week's matchup against the Buccaneers looks like a prime opportunity for him to bounce back. Rookie WR Luke McCaffrey just posted one of the highest separation scores of the week from players with at least a 60% slot rate, suggesting that Tampa Bay will struggle to contain St. Brown. Williams should also remain a factor on deep routes, as the downfield opportunities will be there. The one area where Detroit might struggle is in the run game — a Todd Bowles defense anchored by Vita Vea presents a formidable challenge.

Houston WRs

The Texans had three wide receivers post over a 0.15 ASS score this weekend without facing a single rep against man coverage. This aligns with my analysis in the Unlocking Average Separation: Playcaller Impact article, which highlighted the dynamics of this pass-catching group and how the Texans would live in Cover 3. The Article also anticipated Stefon Diggs controlling the slot, where he's tasked with winning in short-yardage situations and he did so in the red zone. Then you have the big playmaker with Nico Collins who is the versatile playmaker, a fantastic separator, and the one that draws the most of C.J. Stroud's attention with six first-read targets. Lastly, you have Tank Dell who continues to get open with the 12th-highest ASS on the week.

What stands out is the Texans' complete lack of looks against man coverage, especially considering that the Jaguars played heavy man coverage against the Dolphins. If Jacksonville wasn’t afraid to use man coverage against a Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike McDaniel passing attack, they likely won’t be against the Texans either. The Dolphins also struggled to run the ball, forcing them to rely on the passing game. Monitoring man coverage data over the next few weeks will be key to identifying which Texans receiver has the best ASS score and who is getting the most targets.

Bad ASS in Week 1

For once, being a "Bad ASS" isn't a compliment, and the wide receivers on this list have some work to do. In the NFL, separation is crucial — it's what makes a receiver effective.

Those with the lowest Average Separation Scores (ASS) struggle to get open, forcing quarterbacks to make riskier throws. Being on this list suggests issues with route-running, knowledge of how to beat coverage, speed, or timing with the quarterback.

For these receivers, improving their separation is vital to becoming more reliable targets. The coming weeks will be key as they aim to move off this list and show they're more than just "Bad ASS."

Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ari)

The rookie wide receiver struggled in his debut, but that seemed to be more a product of the Cardinals' game plan and the Bills' defense than a reflection of his talent. Buffalo focused on taking away deep shots, and on the one play where Harrison had a chance to capitalize on busted coverage, Kyler Murray wasn’t looking his way. What’s more concerning is that Harrison was only third in first-read percentage on the team, with just three first-read targets, and he even dropped one of them.

However, there’s no need to panic yet. This is a talented rookie who appeared a bit uncomfortable facing a tough defensive scheme and experienced cornerbacks. Against the Rams, I expect Harrison to find more separation. With the game indoors, the Cardinals could look to use him on deep routes, much like the Lions have done with Jameson Williams, to better showcase his speed and playmaking ability.

Carolina Panthers WRs

The Panthers brought in Diontae Johnson to provide Bryce Young with a reliable playmaker, but their Week 1 performance was disappointing. However, Johnson isn't the only one to blame for his poor ASS score — it was the result of multiple factors. First, the Saints jumped out to an early lead, putting the Panthers in obvious passing situations, which allowed the defense to anticipate their plays.

Second, the Saints' defensive backs could comfortably focus on covering the short areas of the field, knowing Young didn’t have the time or protection to throw deep. This lack of time in the pocket limited Young's options and hampered the effectiveness of Carolina's passing attack. Nobody should be encouraged by Johnson’s ASS, but the Chargers next week should be an easier group to work against.

Other Notable Performances

Mark Andrews (Bal)

Andrews posted an impressive ASS in the Thursday night game, but the real story was about Isiah Likely's emergence. After rewatching the game from the All-22 perspective, it’s clear why Andrews wasn’t more involved in the offense — the Chiefs doubled him frequently, forcing other players to step up.

Despite this heavy attention, Andrews still posted the highest ASS of any tight end this week with a 0.22, showcasing his ability to create separation and it was those plays that the Ravens offensive line didn’t hold up. Not many can emulate what the Chiefs did to Andrews and I believe he’s going to be fine going forward.

Drake London (Atl)

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ defensive line is the best in football, and Kirk Cousins’ inability to extend plays contributed to London's lackluster performance this weekend. With little time to develop routes downfield, Steelers' defensive backs were able to play aggressively downhill, knowing the pass rush would get home.

This raises concerns about Cousins' effectiveness against teams with strong defensive lines. His lack of mobility makes him a sitting target, and in obvious passing situations, EDGE rushers have a clear path to the quarterback. This vulnerability could be a recurring issue for the Falcons against elite pass-rushing teams. A move to Michael Penix could come a lot sooner than people would expect, the Eagles and Chiefs are the next two games for the Falcons.

Garrett Wilson (NYJ)

Garrett Wilson is on track to become an elite wide receiver for the Jets as the season progresses. He and Jameson Williams are the only two players to post over a 40% first-read target rate and a separation score above 0.25 in Week 1, showcasing his ability to create space and be a focal point in the offense.

While Wilson had some miscommunications and timing issues with Aaron Rodgers, these are likely to improve with more game reps together. As their chemistry develops, Wilson's production should only get better, making him a key fantasy asset moving forward. Wilson has all the makings to be the Davante Adams for Rodgers in this offense.

Summarized

Week 1 gave us valuable insights into player performances and how various factors like offensive schemes, defensive matchups, and quarterback play impact their production. Understanding metrics like ASS helps uncover potential breakout candidates and under-the-radar players who could make a significant impact in the coming weeks.

Players like Adonai Mitchell or Ja’Lynn Polk show up with ASS, and not so much with the box score. These two will be the ones to keep an eye on going forward. Then you have players like Jameson Williams, who are being used correctly and a few more weeks of consistent ASS will work wonders.

Looking ahead, I’m particularly excited about the potential for players like Calvin Ridley and Terry McLaurin. If their quarterbacks can connect on deep throws, they have the skills to put up big numbers and become game-changers in fantasy lineups. Both of them had an aDOT of 20+ yards this weekend, but their ASS was relatively low.

Keep an eye on these situations, as the data from upcoming games will be crucial in identifying which players will continue to be top performers and which ones will bounce back.

Stay tuned for next week's ASS Report as we dive deeper into these scores and what we can learn going forward.