The 2024 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most of the national sportsbooks have posted 2024 NFL Rushing Yard Props for the league’s top players at running back and quarterback. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Zack Moss and MarShawn Lloyd and a couple of additional wagers I considered.
Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL Touchdown Props.
I previously broke down the 2024 NFL MVP Odds, the 2024 NFL Division Odds, the 2024 NFL Playoff Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Most Receiving Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Rushing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards, and the 2024 NFL Rookie Props. Subscribers can see all 31 of the NFL Futures bets I’ve already placed for the upcoming season.
2024 NFL Rushing Yard Props
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points rushing yard projections. Target the Lowest Rushing Yard Totals for over wagers and the Highest Receiving Yard Totals for under wagers. I used DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) to find the best yardage totals as of June 25.
| PLAYER | FP Projection | HIGHEST YARDAGE TOTAL | LOWEST YARDAGE TOTAL |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 1296.6 | 1150.5 (-110, DK) | 1125.5 (-115, MGM) |
| Jonathan Taylor (Ind) | 1186.4 | 1050.5 (-115, CZR) | 1025.5 (-112, FD) |
| Derrick Henry (Bal) | 1184.5 | 1000.5 (-115, CZR) | 925.5 (-112, FD) |
| Saquon Barkley (Phi) | 1158.1 | 1050.5 (-140, ESPN) | 1000.5 (-110, DK) |
| James Cook (Buf) | 1053.1 | 875.5 (-112, FD) | 875.5 (-112, FD) |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 1052.8 | 950.5 (-115, CZR) | 950.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Isaiah Pacheco (KC) | 1043.6 | 925.5 (-112, FD) | 875.5 (-110, DK) |
| Travis Etienne (Jax) | 972.8 | 925.5 (-110, DK) | 900.5 (-115, ESPN/CZR) |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 967.4 | 1050.5 (-110, DK) | 1000.5 (-115, MGM/CZR) |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 959.9 | 750.5 (-115, CZR) | 750.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Najee Harris (Pit) | 949.0 | 825.5 (-110, DK) | 775.5 (-112, FD) |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 923.3 | 950.5 (-120, ESPN) | 925.5 (-112, FD) |
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | 917.0 | 1000.5 (-110, DK) | 900.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Zamir White (LV) | 910.1 | 800.5 (-112, FD) | 750.5 (-115, MGM) |
| Kenneth Walker (Sea) | 901.3 | 925.5 (-115, CZR) | 875.5 (-112, FD) |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (Det) | 890.3 | 900.5 (-110, DK) | 825.5 (-112, FD) |
| Joe Mixon (Hou) | 879.9 | 875.5 (-110, DK) | 825.5 (-112, FD) |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 877.1 | 750.5 (-110, DK) | 700.5 (-115, CZR) |
| David Montgomery (Det) | 874.2 | 825.5 (-130, DK) | 725.5 (-112, FD) |
| Jonathon Brooks (Car) | 870.5 | 800.5 (-115, MGM) | 800.5 (-115, MGM) |
| De’Von Achane (Mia) | 868.3 | 775.5 (-112, FD) | 700.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Raheem Mostert (Mia) | 856.1 | 700.5 (-110, DK) | 625.5 (-112, FD) |
| D’Andre Swift (Chi) | 840.2 | 800.5 (-130, DK) | 700.5 (-112, FD) |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 825.7 | 850.5 (-115, DK) | 800.5 (-115, ESPN/CZR) |
| James Conner (Ari) | 824.0 | 725.5 (-112, FD) | 700.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 797.8 | 725.5 (-112, FD) | 650.5 (-115, ESPN/CZR) |
| Aaron Jones (Min) | 792.4 | 750.5 (-110, DK) | 700.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Tony Pollard (Ten) | 787.8 | 800.5 (-140, DK) | 675.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Zack Moss (Cin) | 676.6 | 850.5 (-115, MGM) | 725.5 (-112, FD) |
| Blake Corum (LAR) | 672.4 | 500.5 (-115, MGM) | 500.5 (-115, MGM) |
| Jayden Daniels (Was) | 649.9 | 550.5 (-110, DK) | 500.5 (-130, ESPN) |
| Jaylen Warren (Pit) | 632.2 | 600.5 (-112, FD) | 590.5.5 (-115, MGM) |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 628.4 | 650.5 (-112, FD) | 625.5 (-110, DK) |
| Trey Benson (Ari) | 627.7 | 550.5 (-115, MGM) | 550.5 (-115, MGM) |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | 616.3 | 550.5 (-110, DK) | 525.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 591.6 | 500.5 (-115, CZR/ESPN) | 480.5 (-105, DK) |
| Anthony Richardson (Ind) | 544.0 | 550.5 (-105, DK) | 525.5 (-112, FD) |
| Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) | 530.6 | 575.5 (-112, FD) | 575.5 (-112, FD) |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 526.3 | 480.5 (-115, MGM) | 480.5 (-115, MGM) |
| Kyler Murray (Ari) | 473.4 | 500.5 (-115, ESPN) | 475.5 (-112, FD) |
Brolley’s Bets
Zack Moss (Cin) under 850.5 rushing yards (-115, MGM). Placed June 25.
Moss’ rushing yards prop is lined as if he’s completely taking over Joe Mixon’s workload from the last few seasons, which is unlikely to be the case with Chase Brown set to take on more work after flashing at the end of his rookie season. Mixon’s rushing yards prop last summer actually sat 25 yards lower than Moss’ prop is sitting this summer. Mixon averaged 16.8 carries per game during his five seasons under Zac Taylor, but the Bengals guaranteed Moss just $3 million on his two-year deal. His contract suggests that Moss is likelier to be in a committee with Brown than the bell-cow role Mixon formerly occupied. Moss does appear to be a strong fit for Taylor’s shotgun-heavy offense after he averaged 5.20 YPC on 116 carries out of the shotgun in 11 personnel. Only the Colts had more carries from the shotgun in 11 personnel than the Bengals last season. Still, Moss has sat out at least three games in each of his first four seasons, including three games missed due to two different arm injuries last season. He’ll likely need to reach at least 200+ carries to have a chance to top his prop, which is possible but not likely. Moss is lined at 725.5 rushing yards at other books, and we have him projected for 676.6 yards.
Marshawn Lloyd (GB) under 450.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings). Placed April 30.
The Packers have the most vacated RB carries from last season and Josh Jacobs is projected to take over most of those totes. Lloyd will be given every opportunity to beat out A.J. Dillon to be Jacobs’ top backup, and he could carve out a role as a change-of-pace runner and as a receiver. Jacobs posted a 76.8% snap share and a 77.2% carry share and ran 205 routes (15.8 per game) in 13 contests for the Raiders. Matt LaFleur has tended to use two backs but Jacobs has proven capable of handling more work than previous lead back Aaron Jones. Lloyd will face competition from Dillon for playing time so his exact role is a bit up in the air, which is why I gave out Lloyd under 450.5 rushing yards (-110) in late April. DraftKings removed his prop after taking some under action, but Lloyd’s rushing yards prop is available at 480.5 rushing yards at BetMGM.
Brolley’s Leans
Derrick Henry (Bal) over 925.5 rushing yards (-112, FanDuel).
Henry led the NFL in attempts (280) for the fourth time in the last five seasons, which powered him to 1000+ rushing yards for the fifth time in the last six seasons. He’s cleared 925.5 rushing yards in each of his last six years as he moves to a new team for the first time in his career. Henry will get a significant offensive line upgrade after the Ravens finished fourth in yards before contact per attempt (1.82), and the threat of Lamar Jackson will open holes he hasn’t seen in recent years with the Titans. The big question is can he avoid falling off a cliff since he’s entering his age-30 season having logged 3549 touches between Alabama and the Titans (postseason included). The Ravens believe he had enough left to give him $9 million guaranteed for 2024 after he ranked seventh in yards after contact per attempt (3.06) among 49 RBs who posted 100+ carries last season.
Najee Harris (Pit) over 775.5 rushing yards (-112, FanDuel).
I also had a lean toward Najee going over his low 5.5 rushing touchdown prop. Sportsbooks aren’t optimistic about Harris in 2024 despite three straight seasons with 255+ carries, 1000+ rushing yards, and 7+ rushing TDs. Mike Tomlin hand-picked Arthur Smith to continue playing old-school football, which means Harris and Jaylen Warren will remain active after combining for 403 carries last season. The Steelers finished 31st in pass rate over expectation (-4.7%) last season, ahead of only Smith’s Falcons at -5.5%. The Steelers also drafted Brett Whitefield’s seven-best prospect, Troy Fautanu, in the back half of the first round before selecting Zach Frazier and Mason McCormick in the third and fourth rounds, respectively. Harris ranked 17th in yards after contact per attempt (2.78) and 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt (.21) among 49 RBs with 100+ carries last season. His carries have declined in each of his first three seasons (255<272<307) with Warren earning a bigger role, but Najee should still be locked into volume in Smith’s run-heavy scheme.
David Montgomery (Det) over 775.5 rushing yards (-112, FanDuel).
Montgomery has cleared 200+ carries and 800+ rushing yards in each of his first five seasons, including 219 carries for 1015 yards in his first season with the Lions. Montgomery put together the most efficient season of his career moving from Chicago’s 28th-ranked offense in YPG (307.8) in 2022 to Detroit’s third-ranked offense in YPG (394.8) in 2023. He ranked 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt (.24), eighth in yards after contact per attempt (3.01), and ninth in YPC (4.63). Montgomery is in a great position to succeed in 2024 since Detroit is once again expected to have one of the league’s best offensive lines. Montgomery’s biggest concern is the emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs as the backfield’s top option. Gibbs started to steal more work from Montgomery in the second half of last season, which should continue into his second season. Monty’s 15.6 carries per game are likely to dip but he should still pace this backfield in carries to get him over his rushing yards prop.
Alvin Kamara (NO) under 650.5 rushing yards (-112, FanDuel).
Kamara is effectively in the final year of his current contract with $22.4 million in unguaranteed money remaining for 2025, and he left the last day of mandatory camp as he seeks a new contract. The Saints may be inclined to let Kamara prove that he’s worth a new contract by forcing him to play out his current contract this season since he’s been a declining runner the last few seasons. Kamara hasn’t averaged more than 4.0 YPC in three straight seasons after averaging 5.0 YPC in his first four seasons. He’s coming off a career-worst 4.5 yards per touch average, and he ranked 42nd in explosive yards percentage (13.7%) and 48th in yards after contact per attempt (2.05) among 49 RBs with 100+ carries. The Saints need to peel some carries away from Kamara in 2024, but the oft-injured Kendre Miller or the likely washed-up Jamaal Williams have to earn carries after their own terrible campaigns. It doesn’t help that the Saints could have one of the worst offensive lines, especially if Ryan Ramczyk’s knee issues impact his availability.
