The 2024 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Some of the national sportsbooks have posted 2024 NFL Reception Props for the league’s top receivers. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Dalton Kincaid and a couple of additional wagers I considered.
Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL Touchdown Props.
Be sure to check out all my 2024 NFL Futures articles and subscribe to see all 39 of the 2024 NFL Futures Best Bets I’ve already placed for the upcoming season.
2024 NFL Reception Props
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points receptions projection. Target the Lowest Reception Totals for over wagers and the Highest Receptions Totals for under wagers. I used DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD) to find the best receptions totals for receivers as of July 31. ESPNBet (ESPN), Caesars (CZR), and BetMGM (MGM) have yet to post reception totals.
| Receiver | FP Projection | Highest Reception Total | Lowest Reception Total |
| CeeDee Lamb (Dal) | 124.4 | 105.5 (-112, FD) | 104.5 (-110, DK) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) | 108.9 | 105.5 (-110, DK) | 103.5 (-112, FD) |
| Tyreek Hill (Mia) | 107.2 | 98.5 (-112, FD) | 97.5 (-110, DK) |
| Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) | 97.7 | 94.5 (-112, FD) | 90.5 (-125, DK) |
| Justin Jefferson (Min) | 93.8 | 93.5 (-112, FD) | 89.5 (-110, DK) |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 92.7 | 87.5 (-112, FD) | 90.5 (-110, DK) |
| A.J. Brown (Phi) | 92.0 | 87.5 (-110, DK) | 86.5 (-112, FD) |
| Michael Pittman (Ind) | 89.8 | 87.5 (-110, DK) | 85.5 (-112, FD) |
| Davante Adams (LV) | 87.1 | 84.5 (-110, DK) | 82.5 (-112, FD) |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 86.8 | 85.5 (-110, DK) | 85.5 (-110, DK) |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 84.8 | 80.5 (-110, DK) | 79.5 (-112, FD) |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 84.4 | 82.5 (-110, DK) | 80.5 (-112, FD) |
| Marvin Harrison (Ari) | 84.1 | 83.5 (-112, FD) | 82.5 (-110, DK) |
| Cooper Kupp (LAR) | 83.7 | 79.5 (-110, DK) | 77.5 (-112, FD) |
| Drake London (Atl) | 83.7 | 81.5 (-110, DK) | 81.5 (-110, DK) |
| D.J. Moore (Chi) | 82.1 | 71.5 (-112, FD) | 68.5 (-110, DK) |
| DeVonta Smith (Phi) | 81.5 | 77.5 (-110, DK) | 75.5 (-112, FD) |
| Jaylen Waddle (Mia) | 80.5 | 74.5 (-110, DK) | 74.5 (-110, DK) |
| Nico Collins (Hou) | 79.3 | 72.5 (-110, DK) | 72.5 (-110, DK) |
| Stefon Diggs (Hou) | 78.0 | 74.5 (-110, DK) | 71.5 (-112, FD) |
| Receiver | FP Projection | Highest Reception Total | Lowest Reception Total |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 76.7 | 73.5 (-112, FD) | 71.5 (-115, DK) |
| D.K. Metcalf (Sea) | 75.6 | 67.5 (-110, DK) | 67.5 (-110, DK) |
| Sam LaPorta (Det) | 74.9 | 82.5 (-110, DK) | 79.5 (-112, FD) |
| Terry McLaurin (Was) | 74.6 | 69.5 (-110, DK) | 69.5 (-110, DK) |
| Keenan Allen (Chi) | 74.6 | 71.5 (-110, DK) | 71.5 (-110, DK) |
| Diontae Johnson (Car) | 72.9 | 66.5 (-110, DK) | 66.5 (-110, DK) |
| Amari Cooper (Cle) | 71.8 | 65.5 (-110, DK) | 65.5 (-110, DK) |
| Dalton Kincaid (Buf) | 71.7 | 80.5 (-110, DK) | 77.5 (-112, FD) |
| Zay Flowers (Bal) | 71.4 | 72.5 (-110, DK) | 72.5 (-110, DK) |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Sea) | 71.3 | 64.5 (-110, DK) | 64.5 (-110, DK) |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 69.9 | 68.5 (-110, DK) | 64.5 (-112, FD) |
| Mark Andrews (Bal) | 69.3 | 67.5 (-110, DK) | 67.5 (-110, DK) |
| Tee Higgins (Cin) | 65.4 | 65.5 (-110, DK) | 65.5 (-110, DK) |
| Deebo Samuel (SF) | 65.0 | 62.5 (-110, DK) | 62.5 (-110, DK) |
| David Njoku (Cle) | 64.8 | 65.5 (-110, DK) | 65.5 (-110, DK) |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 61.1 | 62.5 (-110, DK) | 60.5 (-112, FD) |
| George Kittle (SF) | 59.0 | 59.5 (-110, DK) | 59.5 (-110, DK) |
| Courtland Sutton (Den) | 57.8 | 60.5 (-110, DK) | 60.5 (-110, DK) |
| Saquon Barkley (Phi) | 42.6 | 40.5 (-112, FD) | 40.5 (-112, FD) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Dalton Kincaid (Buf) under 80.5 receptions (-110, DraftKings).
Kincaid is receiving plenty of love in fantasy drafts and in the betting markets, and it’s a little more love than is deserved heading into his second season. He’s coming off a 73-catch rookie campaign that was greatly aided by a five-game stretch without Dawson Knox. Kincaid averaged 6.2 catches, 7.4 targets, and 31.8 routes per game in Weeks 8-12. When Knox returned in Week 13, Kincaid averaged 3.5 catches, 5.3 targets, and 23.4 routes per game in seven contests through the Divisional Round.
Kincaid is better positioned to stay more involved in the passing game after Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis departed this off-season, but he’ll still fend with Knox for opportunities in an offense that went more run-heavy after Joe Brady took over the offense. Top Bills beat reporter Joe Buscaglia wrote at the start of training camp that early indications are that Kincaid won’t usurp the full-time role from Knox this year. Kincaid has a chance to be Buffalo’s leading receiver competing against the likes of Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman for targets, but I ultimately believe Josh Allen is going to spread targets around to plenty of mouths in a passing attack that’s lacking a clear #1 option.
Brolley’s Leans
Sam LaPorta (Det) under 82.5 receptions (-110, DraftKings)
LaPorta is coming off a rookie TE record with 86 receptions, and he became the first TE to post 70+ receptions, 700+ receiving yards, and 8+ TDs in his first season. His outstanding initial campaign has propelled him to the top of draftboards at the position, and he’s locked in as the #2 option behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. LaPorta had the perfect runout as a rookie as he didn’t miss a single game during his rookie season on an 83% snap share. He also faced limited competition for targets behind him, but first-round picks Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams are expected to take on bigger roles in the passing game. Our projections have LaPorta checking in about 7 receptions lower than his prop line available at DraftKings, and I’m leaning toward LaPorta taking a step back.
D.J. Moore (Chi) over 68.5 receptions (-110, DraftKings)
Moore is coming off a career-high 96 receptions in his first season with the Bears, which helped him land a four-year, $110 million extension that includes $82.6 million guaranteed. His reception line opened nearly 30 catches lower than his final 2023 total because he’s set to face far more competition for targets. Keenan Allen was a target hog to start his career for the Chargers and top-10 pick Rome Odunze is going to command his fair share of looks. His 25.9% target share should take a dip but new OC Shane Waldron will at least have the Bears throwing more this season even with a rookie QB in Caleb Williams. His Seattle offenses ranked eighth in pass rate over expectation in each of the last two seasons. Moore is averaging 4.7 receptions per game to start his career with just two missed games in six seasons, and he needs to average a little more than 3.9 receptions per game to go over his total. Our projections have Moore easily cruising past this total with 82.1 receptions in 16 games.
Malik Nabers (NYG) over 71.5 receptions (-115, DraftKings)
Nabers is competing with just Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson for targets, and he has an immediate path to become New York’s undisputed #1 receiver. The Giants aren’t holding the sixth overall pick to start training camp by giving him heavy work with the starters. ESPN’s Jordan Raanan believes it’s not crazy to think Nabers could see 150 targets as New York’s #1 WR after seeing the first week of practices. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler believes Nabers will be utilized in the quick passing game because of New York’s pass protection issues, which will give the rookie plenty of easy-access receptions and after-the-catch opportunities. Nabers will challenge Marvin Harrison for the highest target share among rookie receivers, but his reception total is set 13 catches lower than his Arizona counterpart.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Sea) over 64.5 receptions (-110, DraftKings)
JSN is coming off a 63-catch rookie campaign, and he’s positioned to get off to a faster start with a year of experience under his belt after posting just 12/62 receiving in his first four games. He’s hoping for a better role in new OC Ryan Grubb’s offense after he gave a lukewarm, at best, endorsement of his former OC Shane Waldron. He finished with the NFL’s third-shortest aDOT (6.4 yards) and the highest designed target share (28.0%) among 57 WRs who saw 75+ targets. Those aren’t necessarily bad marks for betting the over a receptions total, but the first WR selected in 2023 believes he can be utilized better overall in his second season.
JSN will need to cut into Tyler Lockett’s work a bit, and the 32-year-old WR could naturally start to take a step back in his ninth season. JSN finished well behind Lockett in route share (82.6%>71.0%) and target share (20.5%>16.2%), but they were relatively tight in targets per route run share (22%>21%). JSN’s production should tick up and Lockett’s could tick down based on the natural progression of their respective careers. Our projections have JSN clearing his receptions total by about 7 receptions.
