The 2024 NFL season is slowly starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most national sportsbooks have posted 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props for the league’s top quarterbacks. In this article, I highlighted the best bet I already made on a Kyler Murray prop and a couple of additional wagers I strongly considered placing.
Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL Touchdown Props.
I previously broke down the NFL MVP race in mid-February, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards in early May, and NFL Rookie Props in mid-May. Subscribers can see all 22 of the NFL Futures I’ve already bet for the upcoming season.
2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points touchdown projection. You should target the Lowest Touchdown Totals for over wagers and the Highest Touchdown Totals for under wagers. I used DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) to find the best touchdown totals for each quarterback as of May 28.
| Player | Fantasy Points Projection | Highest Touchdown Total (under odds) | Lowest Touchdown Total (over odds) |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 34 | 34.5 (-115, MGM) | 32.5 (-112, FD) |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 31 | 28.5 (-118, FD) | 26.5 (-105, ESPN) |
| C.J. Stroud (Hou) | 31 | 28.5 (-110, DK) | 26.5 (-112, FD) |
| Jordan Love (GB) | 31 | 29.5 (-150, DK) | 26.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Dak Prescott (Dal) | 31 | 30.5 (-110, DK) | 28.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) | 30 | 25.5 (-110, DK) | 23.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Joe Burrow (Cin) | 29 | 28.5 (-125, DK) | 27.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Jared Goff (Det) | 29 | 28.5 (-115, MGM) | 25.5 (-112, FD) |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 28 | 27.5 (-110, MGM/DK) | 25.5 (-125, CZR) |
| Kirk Cousins (Atl) | 27 | 27.5 (-110, MGM) | 26.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 26 | 23.5 (-130, FD) | 22.5 (-105, ESPN) |
| Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) | 26 | 27.5 (-160, CZR) | 26.5 (+100, DK) |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jax) | 25 | 22.5 (-125, DK) | 20.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 25 | 23.5 (-112, FD) | 22.5 (-110, DK) |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | 23 | 23.5 (-135, DK) | 21.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Kyler Murray (Ari) | 23 | 21.5 (-125, DK) | 18.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Geno Smith (Sea) | 24 | 22.5 (-130, DK) | 20.5 (-112, FD) |
| Caleb Williams (Chi) | 22 | 23.5 (-110, DK) | 21.5 (-130, CZR) |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 22 | 23.5 (-110, MGM/DK) | 22.5 (-108, FD) |
| Anthony Richardson (Ind) | 21 | 19.5 (-110, DK) | 17.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Derek Carr (LV) | 21 | 23.5 (-110, MGM) | 21.5 (-118, FD) |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 20 | 22.5 (+105, CZR) | 22.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Deshaun Watson (Cle) | 20 | 18.5 (-110, MGM) | 18.5 (-110, MGM) |
| J.J. McCarthy (Min) | 20 | 19.5 (-130, CZR) | 18.5 (-112, FD) |
| Will Levis (Ten) | 19 | 20.5 (-115, DK) | 17.5 (-105, CZR) |
| Jayden Daniels (Was) | 18 | 19.5 (-120, MGM) | 17.5 (-108, FD) |
| Bo Nix (Den) | 18 | 18.5 (-120, MGM) | 15.5 (-118, FD) |
| Bryce Young (Car) | 18 | 18.5 (+100, DK) | 18.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Daniel Jones (NYG) | 17 | 9.5 (-110, MGM) | 9.5 (-110, MGM) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Kyler Murray (Ari) over 16.5 passing touchdowns (-110, BetMGM). Placed May 1.
I grabbed over Murray’s passing touchdowns prop at BetMGM in early May, which they’ve taken off the board since then. He owns a career average of 1.45 passing touchdowns per game (94 TDs in 65 games) with a 4.2% TD rate, which means he’d have to play about 12 games and attempt about 405 passes to get to 17 TD passes based on his career averages. Murray will be throwing to Marvin Harrison Jr. this season, who is one of the best rookie WR prospects to come into the league, and Trey McBride, who is one of the league’s most promising young TEs. It doesn’t hurt that he’s completely healthy this off-season after his ACL recovery last summer, and he’ll benefit from being in Drew Petzing’s offense for another season. I’d have Murray’s TD passes set in the 20.5 range and I still like over 18.5 TD passes, which is available at ESPN Bet.
Brolley’s Leans
Patrick Mahomes under 34.5 passing touchdowns (-115, BetMGM)
Mahomes is coming off a career-low 4.5% TD rate and his second-fewest TD passes with 27 since becoming a starter in 2018. He’s still getting plenty of bounce-back buzz this off-season after the Chiefs signed Marquise Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy in the first round. He’s the QB4 in Underdog ADP despite his QB13 finish (18.6 FPG), and he owns the highest passing TDs prop at 34.5 at some sportsbooks. I’m just a little skeptical that the quick-strike, downfield TD passes will completely open back up this season. Mahomes’ aDOT has fallen in each of his five seasons as a starter, bottoming out with a league-worst 6.7 yards among 31 QBs who attempted 250+ passes. Travis Kelce also showed his first signs of slowing down last regular season, posting a career-low 10.6 YPR with just 5 scores. The Chiefs never averaged fewer than 28.2 PPG in a season under Mahomes until they plummeted to 21.8 PPG last season. I’m expecting a bounce-back year for this offense, but I’m not convinced they’re getting back to their previous highs to get Mahomes over 34.5 passing TDs.
Josh Allen (Buf) under 27.5 passing touchdowns (-110, DraftKings).
Allen posted a four-year low 29 TD passes on a 5.0% TD rate last season, which ended a three-year run with 35+ TD passes with a 5.6% TD rate or better in 2020-22. His TD passes could take another dip with his two top-scoring threats gone from the last four seasons. Stefon Diggs (37 receiving TDs) and Gabe Davis (27) combined for a whopping 64 receiving TDs in the last four seasons, which accounted for 45.7% of Buffalo’s passing TDs in that span. Diggs and Davis also accounted for 72.2% of Buffalo’s end-zone targets (26 of 36) last season.
The Bills finished 25th in pass rate over expectation (-2.0%) in Weeks 11-18 under Joe Brady after opening the season fifth in PROE (7.1%) under Ken Dorsey. Allen averaged 1.43 passing TDs per game under Brady and 1.90 TDs per game under Dorsey last season. Given his physical playing style for the position, he’s also been fortunate to not miss a game for injury since he missed four contests for an elbow injury as a rookie in 2018. I strongly considered betting under Allen’s passing TDs and it’s a bet I may revisit later in the summer.
Jared Goff over 25.5 passing touchdowns (-112, FanDuel)
Goff has thrown for 29+ TD passes in back-to-back seasons on a sustainable 4.9% TD rate overall, and the Lions rewarded him with a monster four-year contract extension with $170 million guaranteed. The Lions rank fourth in PPG (26.9) over the last two seasons, and Goff sits behind only Patrick Mahomes in pass attempts (1192) in that same span. Goff has never been a prolific downfield thrower, but the organization is set to give speedster Jameson Williams an increased role, which could open more quick-strike touchdowns for Goff. It doesn’t hurt that Goff will play indoors in 14-of-17 games. He owns 88 TD passes in 51 career indoor games (1.73 per game) compared to 97 scores in 66 career outdoor games (1.47). We’re projecting Goff to finish second in pass attempts (575) on his way to 29 TD passes in what should be one of the league’s best offenses once again.
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) over 23.5 passing TDs (-115, Caesars)
Betting over Tagovailoa’s 23.5 TD passes total stands out as a potential value based on our projections. He’s reached 25+ TDs in back-to-back seasons and he’s coming off a 17-game campaign after entering last season with significant durability concerns. Tua orchestrates one of the league’s best schemes for Mike McDaniel and he throws to the league’s most dangerous WR combo in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The organization also improved its receiver depth by signing Odell Beckham and Jonnu Smith. Tagovailoa owns a career 5.0% TD rate with 1.59 TD passes per game in 51 career starts, and he’d need to play about 15 games and reach about 480 attempts to reach 24 passing TDs based on his career averages.
Will Levis (Ten) over 17.5 passing TDs (-105, Caesars)
I’m not convinced Levis is the Titans’ long-term solution, but Tennessee is set to move to a more pass-heavy attack after ranking 30th in pass attempts (494), 29th in passing yards (1846), and 29th in passing TDs (16) last season. Brian Callahan comes from a quarterback background having worked with Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, and Peyton Manning to start his career. Callahan’s most impressive quarterback work came in the final two months of last season when Bengals backup Jake Browning ranked as the QB7 in FPG (20.1) over the final seven weeks. Levis mustered just a 3.1% TD rate in Tennessee’s run-heavy offense last season, but the Titans added Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard to go along with DeAndre Hopkins, Tyjae Spears, and Chig Okonkwo. Levis has the receivers and scheme to make a jump in his second season, and the Titans should be committed to letting Levis play the entire season to see if he's the right quarterback to lead them into the future.
