2024 NFL MVP Odds

The 2024 NFL MVP Odds were released in mid-February following the Kansas City Chiefs defeating the Philadelphia Eagles for the Lombardi Trophy. Since then Patrick Mahomes (+476), Josh Allen (+850), C.J. Stroud (+850), and Joe Burrow (+900) have emerged as the early favorites at odds of 10/1 or shorter at DraftKings Sportsbook. Jordan Love (+1400), Lamar Jackson (+1400), Brock Purdy (+1400), and Jalen Hurts (+1400) round out the top favorites listed at 15/1 or shorter.

It’s important to remember that the MVP award isn’t entirely driven by results on the field unless one player is head and shoulders above the competition. The MVP winner is often driven by a good narrative since media voters decide the award. The eventual MVP winner will have to play well to bring home the hardware, but a great storyline could put that player over the top. The award will be announced at the 14th Annual NFL Honors ceremony, which will be held on Feb. 8, 2025, before Super Bowl LVIII in New Orleans.

I previously broke down the 2024 NFL Division Odds, the 2024 NFL Passing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards, and the 2024 NFL Rookie Props. Subscribers can see all 22 of the NFL Futures I’ve already bet for the upcoming season.

Past Winners

How is the MVP Decided

The MVP award previously was decided by a panel of 50 sportswriters, who were allowed to vote for only one player on their ballots. The Associated Press, which hands out the award, moved to ranked-choice voting starting with the 2022 award. The 50 voters submit lists of five players with a first-place vote receiving 10 points, a second-place vote receiving 7 points, a third-place vote receiving 5 points, a fourth-place vote receiving 3 points, and a fifth-place vote receiving 1 point.

A Few Notes Before We Start

The MVP award is a quarterback-driven honor as we saw once again last season with Lamar Jackson taking home the award. Christian McCaffrey finished with 2000+ scrimmage yards and 21 TDs and he was the best player on the NFC’s top seed, and he still finished third in voting with just 147 points out of 1050 in the new voting system. Quarterbacks have won the MVP in 11 consecutive seasons with Adrian Peterson being the last non-QB to capture the award in 2012. The position has claimed the MVP in 21 of the last 24 seasons with running backs claiming the other three awards — Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), and Shaun Alexander (2005). It’s going to take a truly special season from a non-quarterback to win the award in the future. Even then it’s not a guarantee to be a contender, as we saw when Cooper Kupp won the receiving triple crown in 2021 and received just 2% of the vote in a down year for quarterback candidates.

It’s also a prerequisite to play on a title contender, with the last 11 winners each reaching at least 11 regular-season victories. If we stretch out the sample to the last 24 seasons, 23 MVP winners have won at least 11 games. Peterson is once again the major outlier as a non-quarterback MVP on a team that won fewer than 11 games. Dozens of players across all positions have odds to win the MVP across multiple sportsbooks, but I’m focusing on quarterbacks on teams that have the potential to win 11+ games this season.

The MVP winner hasn’t been a debutant winner since Lamar Jackson won his first MVP in 2019, and there have been just four debutant winners in the last decade.

2024 NFL MVP Favorites

Target the “Longest Odds to Win the Division” to maximize your potential return. I used DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) to find the best Division Winner odds as of June 6.

Brolley’s Bets

Jalen Hurts (+1800, Caesars)

Risk .5 units to win 9 units. Placed February 20.

Hurts has sniffed around the MVP the last two seasons and he’s a solid bet to break through this season at +1800 (5.3% implied odds). He finished second to Patrick Mahomes in the 2022 MVP voting after accounting for 35 TDs in 15 games. He was then the frontrunner for the 2023 award after beating the Bills in Week 12 before Philadelphia’s season spiraled out of control. Hurts still finished behind only Josh Allen in FPG for the second straight season, and he tied Allen for the most rushing TDs (15) by a QB in NFL history. He also supported a pair of 1000-yard receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith for the second straight season.

With Nick Sirianni’s job on the line, the Eagles swung for the fences by hiring Kellen Moore to run the offense. The Cowboys ranked second to the Chiefs in offensive PPG (26.0) and YPG (391.0) during Moore’s four years as Dallas’ playcaller (2019-22). With the guidance of a proven offensive coordinator, Hurts has the best chance to end Allen’s four-year run as the QB1 in FPG and to make another run at the MVP award. Hurts and the Eagles will benefit from a second-place schedule this season. He’ll also have a strong narrative if the Eagles bounce back to finish near the top of the standings after last season’s dramatic collapse.

Bets I Considered But Passed On

Joe Burrow (+1000, FanDuel/Caesars)

• Why I like Burrow: He’s coming off a lost fourth campaign due to calf and wrist injuries, and he’ll be on a mission to prove he’s worth being the highest-paid player at $55 million per year. This could be last season his big-two targets are intact, and they’ll be attacking a fourth-place schedule that includes unique games against the Panthers, Patriots, and Titans. The Bengals will face the sixth-easiest schedule overall based on season win totals. Cincinnati’s defense took a step back last season, which could end up boosting Burrow’s overall production if he has to win a few more shootouts.

• Why I ultimately passed: The Bengals own the sixth-best odds to win the Super Bowl in the +1300 to +1400 range. I was hoping Burrow’s MVP odds would open in the same neighborhood, but sportsbooks aren’t offering any discounts on Burrow this off-season. His current odds are a little too prohibitive to bet at this point, but I’ll be monitoring them throughout the off-season to see if they creep a little longer.

Aaron Rodgers (+2500, FanDuel)

• Why I like Rodgers: He owned odds as short as +1400 early last summer, giving him the sixth-best odds to win the MVP award. The Jets have improved his receiving corps and added significant pass protection help to their abysmal 2023 O-line, but Rodgers now owns the 12th-best odds to bring home the honor. Garrett Wilson has managed to play like one of the NFL’s best WRs in his first two seasons even with Zach Wilson dragging him down as his primary passer, and Wilson could propel Rodgers to strong production. New York will play a third-place schedule that has unique games against the Broncos, Vikings and Steelers.

• Why I ultimately passed: Rodgers is a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a catastrophic leg injury, and he’ll play behind what will still be a questionable offensive line even with their additions. He’ll also have Nathaniel Hackett orchestrating the offense, which is an uninspiring proposition considering his offenses have ranked in the bottom four of the league in PPG the last two seasons. The MVP is decided by a media vote and the more Rodgers opens his mouth in recent years the less likely some media members are to vote for him.

2024 NFL MVP Mid-Range and Longshot Bets

Target the “Longest Odds to Win the Division” to maximize your potential return. I used DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) to find the best Division Winner odds as of June 6.

Brolley’s Bets

Anthony Richardson (+4000, multiple books)

Risk .5 units to win 20 units. Placed February 20.

Richardson blew away the rest of the league by averaging .76 fantasy points per dropback, racking 74.7 fantasy points on his first 98 dropbacks as a pro. For perspective, the last three MVP winners Lamar Jackson (2023), Patrick Mahomes (2022), and Aaron Rodgers (2021) sat at .61, .60, and .58 FP/DB, respectively. Richardson played like a future superstar in just four appearances, but he suffered a concerning number of injuries for a player built like Superman, including a throwing shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery. He still flashed an elite ceiling on just 173 snaps, one that is worth betting on at his longer odds.

As I laid out at the top of this article, a candidate needs to reach a minimum of 11 victories to have a realistic chance of winning the award. The Colts reached nine victories in their first season under the sharp Shane Steichen even with Gardner Minshew starting 13 games. The Jock Strap King nearly picked up a 10th victory to get the Colts to the postseason in the season finale, but luckily Indianapolis fell just short against the Texans, which gives Richardson a better chance to win the MVP. Indy would have had unique games against the Chiefs, Ravens, and Cowboys with a Week 18 victory last season, but they’ll instead have unique games against the Broncos, Steelers, and Giants thanks to their third-place finish.

Bets I Considered But Passed On

Geno Smith (+12500, Caesars/BetMGM)

• Why I like Smith: Geno has the chance to be a quarterback on a team that has an outside shot at winning 11 games this season, which is more than I can say about anyone else in this longshot category. Seattle has reached 9 wins in each of its first two seasons with Geno at the helm, and they’ll benefit from playing a third-place schedule this season. The Seahawks made a ballsy hire to bring in Ryan Grubb from nearby Washington, who helped Michael Penix to finish second in Heisman voting. Geno and Grubb have plenty of weapons to work with, which gives Smith a chance to return to his Comeback Player of the Year form from 2022.

• Why I ultimately passed: Smith and the Seahawks would have to have a near-perfect campaign to get into the MVP mix. Geno led the NFL in completion percentage (69.8%) and posted 30 TDs to 11 INTs when he won the CPOY, and he received just 1 out of 1050 points in the 2022 MVP vote. I’m also not convinced Seattle’s new coaching staff is completely invested in Geno after they traded for Sam Howell this off-season.

Tom Brolley’s MVP Best Bets

• Jalen Hurts (Phi) to win MVP (+1800, Caesars). Risk .5 units to win 9 units. Placed on Feb. 20.

• Anthony Richardson (Ind) to win NFL MVP (+4000, DraftKings). Risk .5 units to win 20 units. Placed on Feb. 20.