The 2024 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. I previously broke down the 2024 NFL Passing Yard Props and it’s time to dive into the 2024 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds for the top quarterbacks. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Patrick Mahomes and Will Levis and a few additional wagers I considered.
Tua Tagovailoa cashed longer odds at +2000 by throwing for an NFL-best 4624 yards last season. He beat out Jared Goff (4575, +2500) and Dak Prescott (4516, +2000) for the honor. Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to finish as the league leader in passing yards (+500) after previously accomplishing the feat in 2022. He’s followed closely by contenders like C.J. Stroud (+550), Dak Prescott (+650), Joe Burrow (+750), and Tua Tagovailoa (+800) at 8/1 odds or shorter.
I previously broke down the 2024 NFL MVP Odds, the 2024 NFL Division Odds, the 2024 NFL Playoff Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards, and the 2024 NFL Rookie Props. Subscribers can see all 28 of the NFL Futures bets I’ve already placed for the upcoming season.
Passing Yards Leaders from the Last Decade
| Year | Quarterback | Age | Passing Yards | Odds (rank) |
| 2023 | Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) | 25 | 4624 | +2000 (t-7th) |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 26 | 5250 | +800 (2nd) |
| 2021 | Tom Brady (TB) | 44 | 5316 | +900 (3rd) |
| 2020 | Deshaun Watson (Hou) | 24 | 4823 | +2000 (10th) |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston (TB) | 25 | 5109 | +950 (5th) |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger (Pit) | 36 | 5129 | +1000 (t-4th) |
| 2017 | Tom Brady (NE) | 40 | 4577 | +600 (2nd) |
| 2016 | Drew Brees (NO) | 37 | 5208 | +525 (1st) |
| 2015 | Drew Brees (NO) | 36 | 4870 | +650 (2nd) |
| 2014 | Drew Brees (NO)/Ben Roethlisberger (Pit) | 35/32 | 4952 | +200 (1st)/N/A |
Historical Hints
The favorite hasn’t led the league in passing yards since Drew Brees did it back in 2016 at +525 odds, and he’s the only favorite to take home the honors in the last decade. The eventual leader has come from inside the top five in odds in eight of the last 10 years. Tua Tagovailoa came from a little further down the board at +2000 odds (t-7th) last season, joining Deshaun Watson at the longest odds to win the award in the last decade. Watson threw for the most yards in 2020 at the 10th-longest odds.
The league leader has skewed younger in recent years, with four of the last five winners checking in at 26 years old or younger. Tom Brady was the lone exception at 44 years old in 2021. The league leader in passing yards has reached 4800+ yards in eight of the last 10 years, with only Tua (4624) and Brady in 2017 (4577) failing to reach that mark. This year’s leader will likely have to average close to 290+ yards per game in 16-17 games to get the job done.
2024 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points passing yards projection. You should target the Longest Odds for Most Passing Yards to maximize your potential return. I used odds from DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) as of June 19.
| Quarterback | FP Projection | Longest Odds for Most Passing Yards | Shortest Odds for Most Passing Yards |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 4615 | +700 (FD) | +500 (DK/ESPN/CZR) |
| C.J. Stroud (Hou) | 4495 | +750 (FD) | +550 (CZR) |
| Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) | 4435 | +1000 (FD) | +800 (DK) |
| Jared Goff (Det) | 4425 | +1200 (FD/CZR) | +750 (MGM) |
| Dak Prescott (Dal) | 4325 | +1000 (FD) | +650 (DK) |
| Jordan Love (GB) | 4315 | +1800 (FD/CZR) | +1500 (MGM) |
| Joe Burrow (Cin) | 4245 | +1200 (FD) | +750 (ESPN) |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 4115 | +2300 (FD) | +1800 (DK/ESPN/CZR) |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jax) | 4025 | +2500 (DK/MGM/ESPN) | +2200 (FD) |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 3965 | +2500 (DK/MGM) | +1900 (FD) |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | 3915 | +3000 (all books) | +3000 (all books) |
| Kirk Cousins (Atl) | 3905 | +1600 (FD) | +1200 (MGM/CZR) |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 3895 | +1400 (DK/ESPN/CZR) | +1200 (MGM) |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 3815 | +4000 (DK/CZR) | +3100 (MGM) |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 3800 | +4000 (DK) | +3000 (MGM) |
| Caleb Williams (Chi) | 3795 | +5000 (CZR) | +2800 (DK) |
| Will Levis (Ten) | 3795 | +8000 (MGM) | +3400 (FD) |
| Derek Carr (LV) | 3785 | +5000 (DK) | +4000 (FD/ESPN/MGM/CZR) |
| Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 3600 | +6600 (MGM) | +4800 (FD) |
| Kyler Murray (Ari) | 3595 | +6000 (ESPN/CZR) | +2900 (FD) |
| Geno Smith (Sea) | 3535 | +5000 (DK/CZR/ESPN) | +4000 (MGM) |
| Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) | 3495 | +2700 (FD) | +1600 (ESPN) |
| Jayden Daniels (Was) | 3365 | +10000 (MGM) | +4400 (FD) |
| Bo Nix (Den) | 3365 | +15000 (ESPN/DK/CZR) | +6000 (FD) |
| Anthony Richardson (Ind) | 3365 | +10000 (DK/ESPN) | +5000 (FD) |
| Daniel Jones (NYG) | 3300 | +15000 (ESPN) | +6000 (FD) |
| J.J. McCarthy (Min) | 3295 | +10000 (ESPN/CZR) | +6000 (FD) |
| Bryce Young (Car) | 3215 | +10000 (MGM/CZR) | +4000 (FD) |
| Deshaun Watson (Cle) | 3155 | +4700 (FD) | +3500 (MGM) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Patrick Mahomes (KC) most regular season passing yards 2024-25 (+800, FanDuel). Placed June 18.
Mahomes is looking for his second passing yards crown after pacing the league with 5250 yards two seasons ago. He’s reached 4700+ passing yards in four of his six seasons as a starter, which includes two campaigns when he’s led the league in passing YPG. He’s motivated to have a bounce-back campaign after posting career lows in passing yards (4183), YPA (7.0), aDOT (6.7), and passer rating (92.6). His sub-par season wasn’t for a lack of trying through the air. Mahomes still finished third in pass attempts (597) despite resting in Week 18, and the Chiefs easily paced the NFL in pass rate over expectation at 10.0%.
He worked with the worst receiving corps of his career, which dropped a league-high 386 passing yards, but the group is much improved in 2024. Kansas City prioritized opening up the downfield passing game this off-season by acquiring speedsters Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy to pair with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Mahomes said at OTAs, “I think we’ve done a great job of mastering the intermediate and short stuff, but we want to get back to having that part of the offense, as well. Coach is really pushing us to push it down the field.” Mahomes’ +800 odds imply an 11.1% chance he leads the league in passing yards and he’s sitting at +500 odds (16.7%) at the other sportsbooks.
Will Levis (Ten) most regular season passing yards (+8000, BetMGM). Placed June 18.
The Titans have signaled all off-season that they’re moving to a more pass-heavy approach after six seasons with Mike Vrabel and Derrick Henry running the show. Brian Callahan comes from a Bengals offense that ranked in the top three in pass rate over expectation in each of the last two seasons. The Titans signed Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to pair with DeAndre Hopkins. They also signed the versatile Tony Pollard to replace Henry, who will play next to another dual-threat back in Tyjae Spears. Levis’ 31.1 pass attempts per game in his full starts are set to rise dramatically, and he wasn’t afraid to aggressively attack opposing defenses even as a rookie. He led the NFL in deep throw rate (20.8%), aDOT (10.5 yards), and hero throw rate (9.0%) among 42 QBs who attempted 150+ passes. The Titans own the fifth-worst win total at 6.5 victories (+105), which means Levis could get plenty of opportunities to chase production late in games. Levis is a long shot to lead the league in passing for a reason, but he could put together a season like the one Jameis Winston had when he led the league with 5109 yards on a Buccaneers team that finished with a 7-9 record in 2019.
Brolley’s Leans
Dak Prescott (Dal) most regular season passing yards 2024-25 (+1000, FanDuel)
Prescott has plenty of motivation for a monster season heading into a contract campaign, and he’ll have the opportunity to throw it plenty based on how the Cowboys played at the end of last season. The Cowboys ranked sixth in pass rate over expectation at 5.1% overall, and they led the league in PROE from Week 8 through the postseason. That’s when they came out of their bye week and stopped trying to force the run game so much with an ineffective Tony Pollard. Dak averaged 298.3 passing YPG in his final 12 games from Week 8 through the postseason, which was 26.3 YPG higher than the season-long average of Tua Tagovailoa, who led the league in passing yards. Dallas should stick with that more pass-heavy approach after punting on running back all off-season, which has left them with a backfield led by Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle. My main concern is that his receiving corps is on the thinner side behind CeeDee Lamb. Dak will count on Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson to take pressure off of the NFL’s leader in receptions last season.
Joe Burrow (Cin) most regular season passing yards 2024-25 (+1200, FanDuel)
Burrow is coming off a lost fourth campaign due to calf and wrist injuries, and he’ll be on a mission to prove he’s worth being the highest-paid player at $55 million per year. This could be the last season his big-two targets are intact with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins seeking new contracts. Cincinnati replaced #3 WR Tyler Boyd with vertical threat Jermaine Burton, who could open up this downfield passing attack even more. Burrow has six tougher matchups against AFC North opponents, but he’ll at least face a fourth-place schedule that includes unique games against the Panthers, Patriots, and Titans. Cincinnati’s defense also took a step back last season, which could ultimately boost Burrow’s passing yards if he has to play in a couple of extra shootouts.
