The 2024 NFL season is nearly here, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. It’s time to dive into the 2024 NFL Most Interception Odds for the top quarterbacks. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Trevor Lawrence and Sam Darnold and a pair of additional wagers I strongly considered.
Sam Howell didn’t have preseason odds in the most interceptions market on BetMGM last summer, but he led the league with 21 interceptions. He bested Josh Allen (18, +1000) and Jalen Hurts (15, +6600) for the dishonor of the interception crown. Allen is a co-favorite to lead the NFL in picks at +700 odds with a pair of rookies in Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. Will Levis (+850) and Sam Darnold (+1000) round out the quarterbacks listed at 10/1 odds or shorter.
Be sure to check out all my 2024 NFL Futures articles and subscribe to see all 44 of the 2024 NFL Futures Best Bets I’ve already placed for the upcoming season.
Interceptions Leaders From the Last Decade
| Year | Quarterback | Age | INTs | Attempts | Odds (rank) |
| 2023 | Sam Howell (Was) | 23 | 21 | 612 | N/A |
| 2022 | Prescott (Dal), Mills (Hou) | 29/23 | 15 | 394/479 | +5000 (t-28th), +800 (t-1st) |
| 2021 | Stafford (LAR), Lawrence (Jax) | 33/21 | 17 | 601/602 | +3000 (t-13th), +1600 (t-7th) |
| 2020 | Lock (Den), Wentz (Phi) | 23/27 | 15 | 443/437 | +2200 (t-14th), +4000 (t-24th) |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston (TB) | 25 | 30 | 626 | +800 (t-1st) |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger (Pit) | 36 | 16 | 675 | +900 (t-3rd) |
| 2017 | DeShone Kizer (Cle) | 21 | 22 | 476 | N/A |
| 2016 | Philip Rivers (SD) | 34 | 21 | 578 | N/A |
| 2015 | Blake Bortles (Jax) | 23 | 18 | 606 | N/A |
| 2014 | Jay Cutler (Chi)/Rivers (SD) | 31/32 | 18 | 561/570 | N/A |
Historical Hints
We have odds for only the last six years at our disposal, and last year’s leader, Sam Howell, didn’t even have preseason odds at BetMGM. We’ve seen a mix of favorites and long shots throw the most interceptions, including in 2023 with Davis Mills (+800) and Dak Prescott (+5000) doing it. Those two quarterbacks combined for an incredibly low 873 pass attempts. Drew Lock and Carson Wentz tied for the league lead while each attempting fewer than 450 passes in 2020.
The other five quarterbacks to lead the league in INTs since 2018 have each attempted 600+ passes, including Howell last season. Looking for quarterbacks with sheer passing volume is the best starting point when searching for value in this market.
2024 NFL Most Receiving Touchdowns Odds
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points interception projections. You should target the Longest Odds for Most Interceptions to maximize your potential return. I used odds from DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) as of Aug. 16.
| Quarterback | FP Projection | Longest Odds for Most INTs | Shortest Odds for Most Ints |
| Caleb Williams (Chi) | 18 | +1600 (FD) | +700 (MGM) |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jax) | 15 | +2500 (MGM) | +1100 (ESPN) |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 14 | +1500 (MGM) | +700 (ESPN) |
| Sam Darnold (Min) | 14 | +2500 (DK) | +1000 (FD) |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 13 | +3500 (DK) | +2000 (FD) |
| Jayden Daniels (Was) | 13 | +1200 (FD) | +700 (ESPN) |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 13 | +4000 (FD/DK/ESPN) | +3000 (MGM) |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | 12 | +3000 (MGM) | +1600 (FD) |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 12 | +2000 (DK/ESPN) | +1400 (FD) |
| Will Levis (Ten) | 12 | +1800 (FD) | +850 (DK) |
| Joe Burrow (Cin) | 11 | +4000 (DK/ESPN) | +2000 (MGM/FD) |
| Jared Goff (Det) | 11 | +2500 (FD) | +2000 (DK/ESPN/MGM) |
| Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) | 11 | +2000 (MGM/DK/ESPN) | +1800 (FD) |
| Deshaun Watson (Cle) | 11 | +4000 (DK/ESPN) | +2000 (FD/MGM) |
| Daniel Jones (NYG) | 11 | +5000 (DK/ESPN) | +3000 (MGM) |
| Anthony Richardson (Ind) | 10 | +4000 (DK/ESPN) | +2500 (MGM) |
| Dak Prescott (Dal) | 10 | +4000 (DK/ESPN) | +1800 (FD) |
| Kyler Murray (Ari) | 10 | +4000 (DK/ESPN) | +1800 (FD) |
| Jordan Love (GB) | 10 | +2000 (DK/ESPN) | +1500 (MGM) |
| Kirk Cousins (Atl) | 10 | +5000 (DK/ESPN) | +2000 (FD) |
| Geno Smith (Sea) | 10 | +4000 (DK/ESPN) | +1000 (FD) |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 10 | +2000 (MGM) | +1000 (ESPN) |
| Bo Nix (Den) | 10 | +1400 (FD) | +900 (MGM) |
| Bryce Young (Car) | 10 | +2000 (DK/FD/ESPN) | +1500 (MGM) |
| Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) | 9 | +7500 (DK/ESPN) | +3500 (MGM) |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 9 | +6000 (DK/ESPN) | +3000 (MGM) |
| Derek Carr (NO) | 9 | +4000 (FD) | +1100 (ESPN) |
| Russell Wilson (Pit) | 9 | +7500 (DK/ESPN) | +3500 (MGM) |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 9 | +7500 (DK/ESPN) | +800 (MGM) |
| Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 8 | +7500 (DK/ESPN) | +3500 (MGM) |
| C.J. Stroud (Hou) | 7 | +4000 (DK/ESPN) | +2500 (FD) |
Turnover Worthy Throw Rate is among the many stats available in our “Advanced Passing” table in our Fantasy Points Data package.
Brolley’s Best Bets
Trevor Lawrence (Jax) most interceptions thrown in the regular season (+2500, BetMGM). Placed Aug. 16.
Lawrence has already led the NFL with 17 interceptions during his rookie season, and he owns a career 2.2% INT rate. The Jaguars have been pass-happy in Lawrence’s first three years as he’s averaged 583.3 attempts per season. In Doug Pederson’s first two seasons, the Jaguars ranked fifth in pass rate over expectation (5.2%) in 2023 and ninth (2.2%) in 2022. He’ll need to develop chemistry with new starting WRs Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis, but his offensive line is “full of guys who are better in pass protection than run blocking” (per our Scott DiBenedetto). Jacksonville should remain among the most aggressive passing teams after it made Lawrence the highest-paid quarterback with Joe Burrow on the average annual value scale at $55 million. We have Lawrence projected for the second-most attempts (571) and the second-most INTs (15), and his +2500 odds are a screaming value.
Sam Darnold (Min) most regular season interceptions thrown (+2500, DraftKings). Placed Aug. 16.
The Vikings announced that J.J. McCarthy would miss his entire rookie season after he needed a full repair to the torn meniscus in his right knee. Minnesota was preparing Darnold to open the season but it has no choice but to roll with him for the entire season. Kevin O’Connell got the most out of multiple quarterbacks last season, and Darnold will play in a pass-heavy offense that ranked fourth in pass rate over expectation (6.3%) despite Kirk Cousins missing half the season. Vikings QBs finished just 5 attempts shy of the Commanders for the most team pass attempts last season with 631, and they finished fourth in INTs (19).
Darnold owns an ugly 3.1% INT rate to start his career and has reached 11+ INTs in each of the four seasons he’s started 11-to-13 games. He’s thrown multiple INTs in a whopping 26.8% of his career starts (15 of 56) through six seasons. Darnold ranked 35th out of 38 passers in catchable throw rate (71.9%) and 37th in turnover-worthy throw rate (5.1%) in 2021-23 (per our Scott Barrett). The Vikings are also one of eight teams lined at 6.5 wins or worse at BetMGM, which means Darnold could throw a couple of extra INTs if Minnesota is chasing points more often than they’re playing with the lead. My biggest concern about betting Darnold to lead the NFL in interceptions is that the organization could bench him for Nick Mullens later in the season if they’re out of contention since they’re committed to him for only this season. The concern isn’t enough to back me off this potentially profitable wager.
Brolley’s Leans
Will Levis (Ten) most regular season interceptions thrown 2024-25 (+1800, FanDuel).
Tennessee is set to move to a more pass-heavy attack under Brian Callahan after ranking 30th in pass attempts (494) and 29th in passing yards (1846) last season. Callahan comes from the Bengals, who ranked second in pass rate over expectation (7.5%) and seventh in pass attempts (615). The Titans are giving their 2023 second-round pick a one-year audition to see if he’s worth building around for the future, and they’ve put key pieces like Calvin Ridley, J.C. Latham, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard around him. Levis didn’t exactly light the world on fire in his first opportunity to start under the old regime, averaging 224.0 passing YPG with 4 INTs in eight full starts as a rookie. He finished behind only Bailey Zappe in turnover worthy throw rate at 6.7% but he lucked out with just a 1.6% INT rate — 4 INTs on 255 attempts. Levis could see INTs spike this season with a significant uptick in attempts and some regression in his INT rate compared to his turnover worthy throw rate. The Titans are also one of eight teams lined at 6.5 wins or worse at BetMGM, which means Levis could throw a couple of extra INTs if Tennessee is chasing points more often than they’re playing with the lead.
Caleb Williams (Chi) most regular season interceptions thrown 2024-25 (+1800, FanDuel).
Our projections peg Williams as the favorite to lead the NFL in interceptions with 18, and the organization is all-in with the #1 overall pick as they have just Tyson Bagent behind him. He owned just a 1.3% INT rate in three college seasons, but rookies have led the league in interceptions twice since 2017, including first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence in 2021. The Bears have signaled they’re not going to hold Williams back as a rookie after trading for Keenan Allen, drafting Rome Odunze ninth overall, and signing passing back D’Andre Swift. New OC Shane Waldron is also expected to utilize an uptempo, pass-heavy offense after the Seahawks finished eighth in pass rate over expectation (3.6%) and third in seconds between snaps (25.5 seconds) under Waldron last season. Williams has already shown his second-reaction skills in his first two preseason games, but those skills are also going to result in some head-scratching interceptions. Caleb could come into the league and quickly become the next superstar at the position, but it’s more likely that he has a fair share of ups and downs as a rookie.
