2024 NFL Division Odds

The NFL season is quickly approaching, and an important step to winning Super Bowl LIX could be locking up at least one home playoff game by winning a division title. The 2024 NFL Division Odds show the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers as the most likely team to win their division at -227 odds, and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are right behind them at -225. The Atlanta Falcons join the 49ers and Chiefs as odds-on division favorites at -105. The Buffalo Bills (+180), Baltimore Ravens (+140), Houston Texans (+110), Philadelphia Eagles (+120), and Detroit Lions (+150) round out the favorites to win division titles.

The Houston Texans (+1100), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+750), and Baltimore Ravens (+220) won their divisions at the longest odds in 2023. The Detroit Lions (+135), Dallas Cowboys (+175), and Buffalo Bills (+120) also captured titles at plus-price odds. The Kansas City Chiefs (-200) and San Francisco 49ers (-165) were the two odds-on favorites to win their divisions. Let’s go division by division to check out the 2024 NFL Division Odds for all 32 teams.

I previously broke down the 2024 NFL Passing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL MVP race, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards, and the 2024 NFL Rookie Props. Subscribers can see all 22 of the NFL Futures I’ve already bet for the upcoming season.

2024 NFL DIVISION ODDS

Target the “Longest Odds to Win the Division” to maximize your potential return. I used DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) to find the best Division Winner odds as of June 4.

AFC EAST

Sportsbooks have pegged the AFC East as the most competitive division at the top with three teams lined at +240 or shorter to win the division. The Buffalo Bills have their work cut out for them to win five straight division titles at 180 odds (35.7% implied odds). The Miami Dolphins are +200 (33.3%) to end their 15-year drought without a division title. The New York Jets are +240 (29.4%) to win the AFC East, which they haven’t done since the NFL switched to eight divisions in 2002. The New England Patriots have by far the longest odds of any team to win their division at +3100 (3.1%).

Lean: New York Jets +240 (MGM)

The Jets have arguably the best roster in the division from top to bottom, especially after attacking their glaring offensive line weakness from last season. I heavily considered making this an official bet, but I don’t have enough faith in Aaron Rodgers coming off a catastrophic leg injury and I certainly don’t have enough faith in coaches Robert Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett.

AFC NORTH

The AFC North became the first division in NFL history to have every team finish above .500 last season. The Baltimore Ravens are trying to make it back-to-back seasons with the best record in the division at +140 odds (41.7% implied odds). They ended the Cincinnati Bengals’ two-year run at the top of the division, and the Bengals are +170 (37.0%) to get back to the AFC North summit. The Cleveland Browns are the only franchise that’s yet to win a division title since the NFL moved to eight divisions in 2002, and they’re facing +600 odds (14.3%) to do it. The Pittsburgh Steelers are +850 (10.5%) to win the AFC North thanks in part to facing the NFL’s toughest schedule based on win totals.

Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals +175 (FD, placed March 8)

The Bengals and Joe Burrow want to get back to the top of the AFC after last year’s disastrous season, and they have one of the league’s most stable play-calling situations between Zac Taylor and Lou Anaromo. Cincinnati has a massive leg up on the rest of the division because of their fourth-place finish last season. They get unique games against the lowly Panthers, Patriots, and Titans who are projected to be the three worst teams based on Super Bowl odds.

AFC SOUTH

The Houston Texans stunned the NFL by winning the AFC South with the fourth-longest odds (+1100) to win a division. They now have the fourth-shortest odds to win a division at +110 (47.6% implied odds), The Jacksonville Jaguars went from the odds-on favorites to win the AFC South in 2023 to +285 (26.0%) in one year. The Indianapolis Colts are looking to end a nine-year drought without a division title at +330 odds (23.3%) despite reaching 8+ wins six times in that span. The Tennessee Titans sit at +1000 (9.1%) to win the division in their first season without Mike Vrabel and Derrick Henry since 2017.

Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +325 (ESPN, placed March 8)

The Texans have caught a lot of steam this off-season while the Colts have flown under the radar. Houston will go from one of the easiest schedules in 2022 to one of the toughest in 2023, including unique games against the Cowboys, Ravens, and Chiefs. The Colts experienced a five-win improvement under Shane Steichen even with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. They’ll get their potential star Anthony Richardson back, and they’ll still benefit from a third-place schedule, which means they’ll get unique games against the Broncos, Giants, and Steelers.

AFC WEST

The Kansas City Chiefs are the only odds-on division favorite in the AFC at -225 (69.2% implied odds). They’ll look to extend their NFL-best division title streak to nine straight AFC West crowns, which could start their run to an unprecedented third straight Lombardi Trophy. The new-look Los Angeles Chargers under Jim Harbaugh have the best chance to dethrone the Chiefs at +350 odds (22.2%) despite last season’s five-win decline from 2022. The Chiefs and Denver Broncos have won each of the last 14 AFC West titles, but it seems unlikely the Broncos will be the team to extend that streak at +2000 (4.8%). The Broncos have the NFL’s second-longest playoff drought streak at nine seasons. The Las Vegas Raiders haven’t won a division title since the NFL switched to eight divisions in 2002, and their AFC West title drought is expected to extend to a 22nd year at +1200 odds (7.7%).

Lean: Kansas City Chiefs -225 (MGM/DK)

I don’t have much interest in betting the winner of the AFC West at the current odds, but I’d lay the juice with the Chiefs if I had to make a bet. The Chiefs are multiple classes above the rest of the division, and a Patrick Mahomes injury is about the only thing stopping this team from inevitably winning another division title.

NFC EAST

The Philadelphia Eagles opened the off-season as the second favorites in the NFC East, but they vaulted the Dallas Cowboys to become the favorites at +120 odds (45.5% implied odds). The Cowboys have slipped to +130 (43.5%) as they try to become the first back-to-back NFC East winner since the Eagles won four straight crowns in 2001-04. The Washington Commanders are looking for their first winning record since Kirk Cousins quarterbacked the team in 2016, which may not be enough to win the division at +1000 (9.1%). The New York Giants are unlikely to snap a 12-year division title drought at +1200 (7.7%).

Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles +160 (DK, placed March 8)

The Eagles are one of the NFL’s sharpest organizations despite their late-season collapse, and they’ve consistently put themselves in the mix to make a run in the NFC. Philadelphia significantly upgraded their coordinator spots by bringing in experienced play-callers Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio. They also upgraded their roster through free agency and the draft while the Cowboys stagnated this off-season.

NFC NORTH

The Detroit Lions finally broke through with their first division title since 1993, and they’re entering as favorites for the second straight year at +150 (40.0%). The Green Bay Packers have quickly returned to being contenders for the division title at +210 (32.3%) after being underdogs to reach the postseason last season for the first time since 2009. The Chicago Bears have just one division title in the last 13 seasons, but they’re back in the mix +375 (21.1%) after landing Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze with top-10 picks. The Minnesota Vikings are +1100 (8.3%) to win the NFC with a rookie quarterback.

Lean: Green Bay Packers +210 (DK/MGM)

We cashed the Packers to make the postseason at +200 odds last season, and the next step in Jordan Love’s development is to unseat the Lions at the top of the division. Green Bay’s defense underperformed under Joe Barry the last three seasons, but the unit could be a sleeping giant because of the significant amount of draft capital they’ve spent on the unit over the last decade.

NFC SOUTH

The Atlanta Falcons joined the Chiefs and 49ers as the NFL’s three odds-on division favorites at -105 (51.2% implied odds). The Falcons are with the reigning Super Bowl participants thanks in large part to playing by far the NFL’s easiest schedule. The Falcons and Carolina Panthers share the dishonor of sharing the NFC’s longest postseason droughts at six seasons. The Panthers own 7.7% implied odds (+1200) of winning the NFC South despite winning just two games a year ago while being in a division with an odds-on favorite. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers own the NFC’s longest division title streak but they’re sitting at just +360 odds (21.7%) to extend it to four straight crowns. The New Orleans Saints failed to capture the NFC South title last season despite entering as favorites and facing the NFL’s easiest schedule. Dennis Allen and Derek Carr enter a make-or-break year as the third favorites in the division at +375 (21.1%).

Lean: Carolina Panthers +1200 (MGM)

I don’t think it’s likely the Panthers win the division, but the NFC South could be more wide open than other divisions if the Falcons get off to a shaky start with newcomers Kirk Cousins and Raheem Morris. Bryce Young will have to take a massive leap under new coach Dave Canales and the NFC South will have to be an abomination for the Panthers to steal the division with 8 or 9 wins, which is possible if the Falcons and Buccaneers stumble a bit.

NFC WEST

The San Francisco 49ers own the NFC’s best odds to win a division at -227 (69.4%), which would be their third consecutive NFC West title. The Los Angeles Rams were the last team to win the division during their Super Bowl run in 2021, and they’re +380 (20.8%) to get back to the top. The Seattle Seahawks won five division titles under Pete Carroll from 2010-23, and they’re +800 (11.1%) to win a division crown in Mike Macdonald’s first season as they did under Carroll. The Arizona Cardinals are bringing up the rear of the division once again at +1300 (7.1%), which would be their first NFC West since 2015.

Lean: Los Angeles Rams +380 (CZR)

Los Angeles is worth a look to win the division at longer odds considering they’re almost always in the mix under Sean McVay. The Rams had the season from hell after winning the Super Bowl in the 2021 season, but McVay has otherwise reached 9+ victories in six of seven seasons and 10+ wins five times as a head coach.

Brolley’s NFL Division Best Bets

• Indianapolis Colts AFC South winner (+325, ESPNBet). Risk 1 unit to win 3.25 units. Placed March 8.

• Cincinnati Bengals AFC North winner (+175, FanDuel). Risk 1 unit to win 1.75 units. Placed March 8.

• Philadelphia Eagles NFC East winner (+160, DraftKings). Risk 1 unit to win 1.6 units. Placed March 8.