2024 Fantasy WAR Over and Underperformers

We are closing in on a quarter of the way through the season. With that, managers are starting to see how good or bad the teams they drafted are. Managers still have time to make adjustments and find ways to improve their teams, but there are consequences to poor draft decisions. Today, I will break down underperformers and overperformers based on each player’s draft position and current WAR ranking.

WAR data is updated every Tuesday morning. Fantasy Points is the only place where you can track WAR across six different league types AND have access to Flex and Superflex position WAR values. For this, we will be focusing on overall WAR for 2024 and not WAR/G. This takes out a player like Kenneth Walker from being considered an overperformer since he has missed 2 games but is killing it in WAR/G.

Overperformers

Starting on a positive note, here are the players who are significantly overperforming their draft ADP. If you are rostering these guys, then your starting lineup has been in good shape.

Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)

• WAR Rank: 1

• ADP Rank: 40

• Discrepancy: +39

Alvin Kamara has been, far and away, the most valuable player in fantasy football this season. He has a season-long WAR of 1.80 for a WAR/G of 0.45, meaning he is giving you a 45% chance of winning your matchup each week compared to a replacement-level running back. (Saquon Barkley is the next closest at 1.60 WAR and 0.40 WAR/G.) All of this is from a player that managers drafted in the 4th round.

Zack Moss (RB, CIN)

• WAR Rank: 31

• ADP Rank: 91

• Discrepancy: +60

Managers using the Zero RB build strategy have been rewarded handsomely if they targeted the ambiguous Cincinnati backfield. Moss has been the more productive of the two backs so far with a WAR/G of 0.18. Chase Brown has been in the positive too, with a WAR/G of 0.07.

Malik Nabers (WR, NYG)

• WAR Rank: 5

• ADP Rank: 49

• Discrepancy: +44

It has been well established that rookie wide receivers usually provide great returns on investments, especially over the second half of the season, but what Nabers is doing is otherworldly. He is the WR1 in WAR, and his 0.32 WAR/G is 0.09 higher than the WR3 Justin Jefferson (Nico Collins is also dominating while being only 0.01 WAR/G behind the rookie). I don’t know if he will finish as the WR1 on the season, but he is already greatly outperforming his draft cost.

Brock Bowers (TE, LV)

• WAR Rank: 45

• ADP Rank: 95

• Discrepancy: +50

Coming off a disappointing Week 4 when it looked like he had an opportunity to truly break out, Bowers is still comfortably outperforming his draft position. Sitting as the TE3 with a WAR of 0.51, Bowers is a bright spot at a position that has largely let managers down. Once he manages to find the endzone, fantasy managers will be even happier they took a risk on a player who wasn’t even one of the first 12 tight ends drafted.

Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS)

• WAR Rank: 7

• ADP Rank: 99

• Discrepancy: +92

There is a theme to several of the players in the overperformers category: rookies have been crushing it so far! Jayden Daniels is the QB1 on the season in 4 point TD leagues with a WAR of 1.13. Even though managers that took Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson early are still mostly happy, the advantage that Daniels has given managers by being able to take him in the 8th round has been undeniable.

As previously mentioned, the Hero QB strategy has been working for managers that took Allen and Jackson and they have been worth the cost to acquire them. The Hero RB strategy has led to many solid teams with several running backs meeting or exceeding expectations. Jordan Mason has been a waiver wire hero while Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold have been crushing, too.

Underperfomers

I wanted to avoid players who are underperforming due to injury (Puka Nacua) or an important teammate who is injured (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle with Tua Tagovailoa). However, several players in your lineups are still disappointing.

Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)

• WAR Rank: 290

• ADP Rank: 47

• Discrepancy: -243

No player, aside from Christian McCaffery, has disappointed fantasy managers more than Andrews. From seeing the success that Isaiah Likely had in Week 1 to seeing only one target in two weeks, it has been an extremely rough four weeks for Andrews. He is being dropped in leagues, and that is not an outcome managers envisioned after drafting him in round 4 as a top-five tight end.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX)

• WAR Rank: 69

• ADP Rank: 17

• Discrepancy: -52

The highest-ranked player in the underperformers list, Etienne, is still having a fine season. The issue is the number of other running backs drafted at and around his ADP who are crushing it. Isiah Pacheco has played in only two games and has a higher WAR. We will see if Etienne can turn it around, but it appears that Tank Bigsby is taking more and more work away.

Rome Odunze (WR, CHI)

• WAR Rank: 158

• ADP Rank: 92

• Discrepancy: -66

The only rookie on the underperformers list, Odunze — and the Bears offense in general — is really struggling. His performance would be even worse if not for a solid Week 3 showing without Keenan Allen. As mentioned above, rookie wide receivers have a history of improving over the second half of the season, but it has not been the start that managers were expecting when drafting Odunze.

Zamir White (RB, LV)

• WAR Rank: 285

• ADP Rank: 66

• Discrepancy: -219

White was mentioned earlier as an underperformer in the first article that I wrote, but his situation has gotten so much worse. He has a WAR of -0.26 through four weeks and shows no signs of returning any value for managers. White has done nothing but hurt lineups.

Patrick Mahomes II (QB, KC)

• WAR Rank: 105

• ADP Rank: 28

• Discrepancy: -77

Perhaps the most surprising person to be listed in this article, Mahomes has done very little to help your lineups with a WAR of 0.13 for the season. I think Scott Barrett said it best to describe Mahomes’s season.

Christian McCaffrey is still the most disappointing player to be drafted in 2024 since he is not even playing and does not appear to be close to returning to action. If not for the performance of Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts would be included on this list, but he is not the only Falcon that could be included. Bijan Robinson and Drake London have disappointed after going in the top 2 rounds, too. Other disappointing performers include Rachaad White, Amari Cooper, Garrett Wilson, and Jaleel McLaughlin.

Closing Remarks

The season still has a long way to go, but a quarter of the way through there needs to be a return on investment for draft position. Managers are starting to get an idea of players that are for real and those that are mistakes. Now is the time to start making moves to fix those mistakes.