For a massive undertaking like Fantasy Points Data, we need a large team of dedicated and educated charting professionals to ensure that we are able to get statistics posted on the website both accurately and quickly.
While the data-charting process is, by nature, objective, our team will obviously form opinions about what they saw, given we have to watch every play multiple times.
Every week, we’ll select the most notable observations and back them up with the objective data we’ve become known for.
Here are our top observations for 2024 NFL Week 3.
Week 3 Data Charter Observations
1. “Derrick Henry is back. Any concerns over mileage catching up to him were not on display against the Cowboys. He had multiple chunk plays, and his stiff arm was back in full force. Gamescript certainly played a role with the Ravens going up early and leading by double digits for most of the second half.”
The Ravens asked RB Derrick Henry to carry the mail in Week 3 and Henry delivered in a major way. In the first 6 quarters of the season, Tractorcito looked like the tread on his tires was catching up to him as he had 0 yards on explosive runs and just 1 missed tackle forced. The last 6 quarters have looked more like the Derrick Henry of old, as he has 101 yards on explosive runs and 7 MTFs, along with a 23-yard catch and run in Week 3. All told, Henry has 253 total yards and 3 touchdowns since halftime of Week 2, and his vaunted stiff arm is back like it never left.
2. “The Saints’ best offense was Chris Olave against anyone but Darius Slay, and Alvin Kamara on the outside runs. Unfortunately, Jalen Carter was a one-man wrecking crew all game and kept knocking the Saints off script.”
The Week 3 marquee matchup in the NFC saw the Eagles score a huge bounceback win over the high-flying Saints. Much was made over Saints’ OC Klint Kubiak unlocking this offense through the first two games, but the Eagles were up to the challenge in a game that they needed. Saints’ WR Rashid Shaheed bageled in a wonderful matchup, leaving teammate Chris Olave to pick up the slack. Olave made good on his ASS metrics coming into Week 3 with the 3rd best ASS of 0.375 helping him to convert that into 86 receiving yards and the lone offensive touchdown for the Saints.
The Eagles turned up the pressure on Saints’ QB Derek Carr as Carr’s time-to-pressure rate plummeted from 3.14 TTP in Weeks 1 and 2 all the way down to 2.50 in Week 3 contributing to him turning away from Shaheed and more towards Olave. Week 4 brings a road matchup with the division rival Falcons, when the Saints will need to get back to their offensive output from the first two games.
3. “Just like the Saints, the Eagles also had interior offensive line issues early in the game, forcing a lot of bounced runs. Because of this, the Eagles made a point to get Dallas Goedert more involved. In the second half, the Eagles were able to step up their interior blocking and get way better push, leading to Saquon having more success in the run game, including the long TD.”
With WR AJ Brown (hamstring) inactive and WR DeVonta Smith (concussion) departing in the second half, the Eagles turned to RB Saquon Barkley and TE Dallas Goedert to carry their offense in Week 3. In the first half, the Eagles averaged a paltry 0.67 YBCO/ATT leading to zero points on the board, while Goedert had 49.7% of QB Jalen Hurts’ passing yards with 7 catches for 80 yards. The veteran TE then tacked on another 90 yards in the second half to go along with Barkley finding daylight en route to 130 rushing yards in the third and fourth quarters.
Much of Barkley’s success can be attributed to the offensive line’s second-half improvement, as he spiked to 7.75 YBCO/ATT to help lead the Eagles to a victory (he wasn’t touched on the long run). After losing a heartbreaker at home in Week 2, the Eagles now sit atop the NFC East at 2-1 and will look for the offensive line to continue to open huge holes for Barkley to burst through like the play below.
4. “Andy Dalton looked good. Diontae Johnson gets separation. If Johnathon Brooks is healthy when he returns, watch out. Chuba Hubbard was getting good looks all game.”
Panthers fans and Diontae Johnson owners REJOICE! The Panthers turned to veteran QB Andy Dalton to salvage their season after former first overall pick QB Bryce Young got benched prior to their Week 3 matchup with the Raiders. Young ranked near the bottom of the league in nearly every analytical QB category despite earning the 14th best time-to-pressure rate (2.48 seconds) and tying for the best drop percentage with 0 registered drops through 2 games.
Insert Dalton. And all of a sudden, the Panthers offense not only resembled a competent offense, they dominated the Raiders in Las Vegas on their way to a 36-22 victory in Week 3. Dalton stayed within HC Dave Canales’ system, while averaging the quickest time-to-throw rate at 2.00 seconds, frequently targeting Johnson who was second in first-read targets with 13 in Week 3. The Panthers will be without WR Adam Thielen for the foreseeable future as he went on IR and will look to WR Xavier Legette and Hubbard to pick up the load on offense.
5. “With defenses needing to account for all three of the Seahawks’ WRs, the running game opens up against light boxes. Charbonnet ripped off multiple nice runs and powered into the end zone with ease.”
Seahawks’ RB Zach Charbonnet must have read this article last week, after he was struggling with making defenders miss in Week 2. Against the Dolphins in Week 3, Charbonnet looked like a wrecking ball, being credited with 7 MTFs on 18 rushing attempts. QB Geno Smith was cooking in the first half throwing for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns, allowing the Seahawks to dial up Charbonnet and the running game en route to 56 yards and his second of 2 touchdowns in the second half. With RB Kenneth Walker possibly missing another week, Charbonnet could be leaned on in a difficult matchup against the Lions’ stout run defense in Week 4.
6. “Absolute blanket coverage by Pat Surtain. This was his third game in a row picking up a defensive penalty, this time it was holding and interference simultaneously on an Evans out route. Aside from that, he was all over Mike Evans. He looked like Champ Bailey Jr. in my eyes. It gets to a point where opposing offenses hardly throw at him.”
DFS players and prop bettors beware, whenever a WR is scheduled to meet Broncos’ CB Pat Surtain watch out. The Broncos have tasked Surtain with covering DK Metcalf, George Pickens, and Mike Evans to start the season, and while he has been flagged a few times, their box score outputs have been minimal.
That trio of WR1s have combined for 5 catches on 8 targets for a grand total of 53 yards in shadow coverage from Surtain. The entertaining matchups keep rolling the next two weeks as the Alabama alum will likely follow Jets’ WR Garrett Wilson in Week 4 and Raiders’ WR Davante Adams in Week 5.
7. “Justin Fields has been in control and not looking to run. Has stayed mostly on time in the pocket and working through reads. His sack responsibility still needs to be worked on, but has gotten much better”
QB WINZ are far from being a good stat, but it is worth mentioning that Steelers’ QB Justin Fields has 3 victories to start the 2024 season after earning just 10 wins in his first three seasons in the NFL. Now for the analytics, Fields has excelled at playing within the offense by ranking 7th among QBs with just a 2.7% turnover-worthy-throw percentage and an 81.7% adjusted completion percentage. While with the Bears, Fields never registered a sub-3% TWT rate or an above 74% adjusted completion percentage, which highlights his comfort in the Steelers’ passing game. HC Mike Tomlin wants to play solid defense and lean on their running game to simplify things for Fields and it is working thus far as Pittsburgh has a two-game lead on the AFC North through three weeks.
8. “The Falcons’ run blocking was poor. Bijan Robinson would be a great running back if they did not have him run into a brick wall every other play. I am not sure whether to call their play calling creative or cute. Atlanta has Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson, but threw negative aDOT screens to Darnell Mooney and Ray Ray McCloud half the night. In Mooney’s defense, he did look like a decent WR2 out there, but the play calling was still highly questionable, especially late in the fourth quarter. Atlanta blew two chances to score by attempting to play bully ball against the Chiefs and running with extra blockers, even though they had very, very little success running all night.”
On the season, the Falcons’ offensive line has produced a solid 2.09 YBCO/ATT (6th best). However, that average dropped significantly in Week 3 after the unit registered 1.12 YBCO/ATT (19th). While the Chiefs’ defense is in the middle of the pack in yards before contact per attempt allowed, they are one of the best at limiting explosive run plays, surrendering just a 2.5% explosive run rate (7th best). Falcons’ OC Zac Robinson continued to run despite limited success and extended the running game by dialing up 6 screen passes (3rd most on the week).
You would think WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts would be the designed target for these play calls, but WRs Ray Ray McCloud and Darnell Mooney accounted for 4 of the 6 targets accumulating 0 total yards despite catching all 4 of the screens thrown their way. Robinson will need to find ways to be more creative as the Falcons enter a three-game stretch in their schedule when they meet each of their NFC South division rivals.
To make matters worse, RT Kaleb McGary (knee) is injured and C Drew Dalman (ankle) is on IR.
9. “It felt as if Jauan Jennings had more of the George Kittle role. He primarily worked in the middle of the field and 2 of his touchdowns were seam routes where he got behind the coverage. And once he started making spectacular catch after spectacular catch, Purdy just started to force feed him.”
With WR Deebo Samuel and TE George Kittle M.I.A. from Week 3, the 49ers turned to WR Jauan Jennings to fill the void… and you could say the results were ASS.
Although the 49ers blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead, the team can find a silver lining in the fact that Jennings is a monster when given the opportunity. Only four WRs (one being teammate Brandon Aiyuk) produced a better win rate than Jennings’ 35.5% rate in Week 3 and he posted an elite 0.323 ASS.
While Kittle is often QB Brock Purdy’s go-to target in the middle of the field, Jennings caught all 4 of his targets for a marvelous 76 yards and a touchdown on throws to the middle of the field. With uncertainty surrounding the availability of Samuel and Kittle, Jennings could be tasked with leading the passing game again in a Week 4 matchup against the Patriots, who are giving up the 5th-most yards to receivers over the middle of the field (262).
10. “Could Josh Allen with no true WR1 be the key to unlocking even more from this man? The way he is distributing to anyone and everyone is like some backyard football these past few games and has been fun to watch. Tonight versus the Jaguars was the best of it. Even when it comes to the work inside the 20, he is looking for receivers to get open and sliding when he scrambles just a little bit more than normal”
Questions surrounding Josh Allen and the lack of a true alpha WR have been answered with resounding results so far in the 2024 season. No team entered Week 3 with a more spread out target distribution than the Bills and that trend continued as Allen connected with 10 different targets in a blowout victory over the Jaguars. Bills’ OC Joe Brady definitely read this article’s plea to unleash RB James Cook in the red zone as Cook has 3 touchdowns from inside the 20-yardline in the last two games. In his first full season under Brady, Allen is thriving by leading the league in highly accurate throw percentage at 63.9% and ranking top-6 in both completion percentation over expectation at 7.1%, and turnover-worthy-throw rate of just 1.4%.
A marquee matchup with the Ravens in Baltimore awaits the Bills in Week 4, which will be the toughest test yet to see if this offense can sustain its 2024 success.
Bonus Observations
Texans QB CJ Stroud – The Texans looked very sloppy in this game. Stroud did not have much time and seemed rushed almost every play. Offenses have had a tough time figuring out the Brian Flores-led Vikings’ defense and Stroud succumbed to the pressure in Week 3. The Texans were allowing the 7th-best pressure rate over expected at a 7.25% clip in the first two games, but conceded a -4.34% PrROE (23rd) against the Vikings.
Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is getting the DeAndre Hopkins-like treatment from QB Kyler Murray. Lots of jump ball opportunities, YOLO balls into double coverage, and what seems like complete trust in MHJ to make the play. Unfortunately in this game he could not make any of those WOW catches, but it will come. MHJ was able to break loose deep against the Rams, but his two other matchups came against the Bills and Lions who are both top-12 in defending deep targets to WRs with the Bills allowing the fewest yards on such passes. Enter the Commanders, who have allowed huge games to opposing WR1s, in Week 4.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow – The Bengals’ passing game with Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase is completely different than their passing game without both on the field. Chase threatened vertically more often, concepts were pushed over the middle frequently, and overall the offense looked much less stunted with both guys on the field. Burrow had his best game of the season in a disappointing loss to the Commanders. September is never a friendly month for Burrow, however, things are looking up as the Bengals drop rate vastly improved from 12.3% in Weeks 1 and 2 compared to just 2.6% in Week 3 with Higgins and Chase back on the field together.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott – Week 4 saw multiple overthrows from Dak to his receivers. The Cowboys are off to a subpar 1-2 start largely due to the offense ranking bottom-10 in highly accurate throw rate (44.8%), catchable ball rate (74.4%), off-target throw rate (19.2%), and turnover-worth-throw rate (4.8%) while ranking bottom-5 in completion percentage over expectation (-4.6%). Prescott and company have a quick turnaround on Thursday Night Football with a matchup against the Giants.
