Alright, alright, alright, we made it to the end of the preseason, folks! Real football is right around the corner, so I wanted to knock out another mailbag article to get some final preseason hot-takes out in the open.
Shoutout to all the Discord subscribers who submitted questions. Again, there were a lot of great ones, so please keep them coming, as I’m hoping to make this somewhat of a recurring thing throughout the season.
Subscribers can reach out to Scott DiBenedetto in our subscriber-only Discord — find him @Scott DiBenedetto
How would you rank the two most recent QB classes and is Caleb Generational? — usedteeth
I’m assuming this means how I ranked the guys in each draft class, not to compare the classes against each other? If it’s the latter, this is a quick answer; the 2023 class is better because they already have a stud (CJ Stroud), an expected stud (Anthony Richardson), and potential for one or two serviceable guys. On the flip side, the 2024 class hasn’t played a regular-season snap yet.
Assuming that it’s the former, I’ll rank the four half-season+ starters from a year ago (plus Richardson) and the six 2024 first-round picks. The 2023 rankings will have last year’s performance baked in, and the 2024 rankings will be based on how I saw these guys coming out of school and their preseason tape.
2023 (minimum 80 attempts to include Richardson)
- CJ Stroud – No surprise here if you read my last mailbag article. I’m super high on Stroud and how well he performed last season. This dude won offensive rookie of the year and is the unquestioned stud of the 2023 class to this point. He finished with a 23:5 TD:INT ratio, 8th in passing yards (4108), 3rd in passing yards/game (273.9), 4th in yards/attempt (8.23). He outperformed expectations in year one and looks primed to stay hot in year two.
- Anthony Richardson – I wasn’t sure about this guy coming out. He was a one-year wonder at Florida who didn’t have great passing stats, but made a bunch of ridiculous plays. Fast forward to 2024, and he was on the edge of becoming a dual-threat star before suffering a shoulder injury after five games. He finished with 577 passing yards, was 27th in yards/attempt (6.87), and had four rushing touchdowns. There’s a lot of work to be done, but he has all the tools to be great.
- Will Levis – He’s a very polarizing guy who came out red-hot and slowly tapered off as defenses saw more film on him. Statistically, he was upper half of qualifying quarterbacks finishing 28th in yards/game (200.9) and 21st in yards/attempt (7.09). The big issue was he took 28 sacks in just nine games, so I’m not sold he’d make it through a full season if that trend continues. Look, I like Levis a lot, even though some don’t. I like his play style and fearlessness to let it rip (10.5=yard average depth of target). With a new head coach/offense and added receiver help, he’ll hopefully get a proper chance to develop into a reliable starter.
- Bryce Young – I’ll lead off by saying I still believe Young can become a competent starting quarterback, but it’s hard to overlook how bad year one was. He struggled big-time with a bad offense/situation as a rookie finishing 20th in passing yards (2877), 35th in passing yards/game (179.8), 47th (out of 49) in yards/attempt (5.46), and 32nd average depth of target (7.6). He had a boring offense, a terrible O-line, and little help at the skill positions. So basically, a recipe to fail. The talent is still there, but he needs help.
- Aidan O’Connell – I threw AOC in because he started 11 games as a rookie but really didn’t move the needle in a positive direction. O’Connell finished 27th in yards/game (201.6), 34th in yards/attempt (6.47), and 31st in average depth of target (7.7), so not great. I respect that he has 11 NFL starts, but he’s a career backup.
Side note: I truly don’t like how short of a leash quarterbacks get in today’s NFL. There’s already immense pressure on any QB that’s expected to start as a rookie, and I saw it blow up quickly twice in Cleveland. Cody Kessler and DeShone Kizer weren’t ready to start as rookies. Kessler was thrown in when RG3 went down early in 2016, and Kizer was given the reigns immediately in 2017. It didn’t work out for either guy to the point where they could barely get a backup job. It’s a sink-or-swim league, I get it, but a lot of highly drafted QBs go into bad situations on poorly run organizations, have very little help, and end up getting run out of town. Young is trending that way — hopefully it doesn’t happen.
Sorry for that tangent! Back to our regularly scheduled programming.
2024
- Caleb Williams – No-doubter here for #1. Williams had Mahomes 2.0 potential coming out of school and he has reinforced that through the preseason. I loved his instincts, athletic ability, arm strength, and creativity in college, all of which were on display in his two preseason appearances. Is he walking into the best situation a #1 overall pick ever has? More on him later.
- Jayden Daniels – I can make the case that he was the most exciting player in the 2024 Draft and would have gone #1 in any other year. This kid has huge upside given his running ability, and showed that he can sling it all over the field. I would have liked to see more consistent accuracy, and he needs to not get hit as much both in and out of the pocket, but he’s primed to be a star in the NFL.
- JJ McCarthy – I had a tough time coming up with a grade for McCarthy coming out of school, as it seemed a lot of people did. He ran a pro-style offense but wasn’t allowed to take over a game with his arm very often, so it was a tough film exposure. Then, he has an out-of-nowhere, meteoric rise to the 10th overall pick. On film, he’s an adequate quarterback with an average arm who does well off play action and has better-than-expected athleticism. Will it translate to the next level, though? Kevin O’Connell is a good coach for a player like McCarthy, but the knee injury will obviously delay his development. With the right system, he could become the next Brock Purdy.
- Michael Penix Jr. – I’m still confused by this entire situation. Atlanta drafted an almost 24-year-old, 6th-year, injury-plagued QB after signing Kirk Cousins to the most expensive free-agent deal this spring. GM Terry Fontenot logically made sense (I think) with his explanation for making this pick, but if Penix doesn’t play a snap until he’s 28 or 29, how high can his ceiling be? His ability speaks for itself. He has good arm strength, great touch and accuracy on his deep ball, and is a good enough athlete to avoid trouble, but how long will it be until we see him on the field? I can’t say he’ll be better than a low, low-end starter.
- Drake Maye – I won’t go too deep into it here since I answer a Drake Maye question later on, but I am not high on this guy. I thought there were mechanical and awareness issues coming out of school that his accuracy and arm strength couldn’t make up for. It’s a matter of time before he becomes the starter in New England, but I don’t see him being a successful long-term.
- Bo Nix – I know I have him at #6, but he’s probably the biggest surprise for me through the preseason. I didn’t see him becoming a starter potentially ever, let alone for Week 1 of his rookie year. He’s looked confident and commanding in preseason action and has the full support of his head coach, and Sean Payton is a damn good one. But his ceiling is Ryan Fitzpatrick in my eyes.
Moving on to the Caleb question…Is he generational? On paper, yes. He was compared to Patrick Mahomes while he was at Oklahoma, and he improved each year at USC. There’s no doubt he’s a very unique talent who has the potential to become a dominant force in the NFL for years to come.
I’ve just never been a big fan of the “generational” conversation. I think football is the toughest sport for a prospect to live up to that hype. The generational tag, in my mind, really only applies to a guy when he’s coming out of school. Once he gets to the league, it doesn’t matter how good you were in college. I fully believe Caleb will be a highly successful NFL quarterback, but the “generational” tag can be dropped until he proves it on the field.
How does the tape look on Austin Ekeler? Was he playing hurt last year, or has he lost a couple of steps? — cmartin18
We’ll start with the second question, and then circle back to the first.
Yes, Austin Ekeler was playing hurt last season after suffering an ankle injury in Week 1. He missed the next four weeks (three games) before returning and was clearly not himself. He’s always provided one of the tougher matchups for a defense in my experience.
He’s a shifty runner who’s strong through the line of scrimmage and is tough to bring down for second-level defenders. His vision has always been good, and he had open-field speed to be dangerous. You saw all of these traits in the week one matchup against Miami, and all those traits diminished after the injury.
Post-injury, the twitch and explosiveness weren’t there, and he was not the same threat he has been throughout his career. He finished 2023 42nd in YPC (3.51) and 38th in yards after contact per attempt (2.41) for backs with 100+ carries. In 2022, he was 18th (4.49) and 17th (2.92) in those same categories. His game has been predicated on slashing through the hole and breaking tackles, and he physically couldn’t do that last season. The age cliff comes for all running backs, and the injury might get him there sooner than expected, but I’d attribute his 2023 performance to the lingering ankle issue.
As for 2024, there hasn’t been a lot of film on Ekeler through the preseason. He played in only the first two game, getting two carries and bringing in one reception. In that brief exposure, I saw explosive cuts that looked like the old Ekeler. However, he should look twitchy and spry at this point in the season. So, the tape looks good right now, and taking on the complimentary RB role should help keep him healthy, but I’d want to see how he looks after two or three regular-season games before I declare Ekeler fully back.
As a UNC die-hard, I am super excited to see Drake Maye play this season. What are your thoughts on both his short-term potential for this season in regards to earning the starting job, as well as his potential for long-term success as a starting QB? — Barker118
I guess I’m going to burst your bubble right away by saying I was not very high on Drake Maye coming out and thought he shouldn’t have been in the conversation to go before either Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels.
I saw him as a good-sized QB with slightly above-average strength in the pocket, good but not elite arm strength, and inconsistent pocket presence. He’s a good enough athlete to avoid danger and be creative in space, but I don’t think he handles pressure well and is not a difference-maker downfield with his feet.
My biggest issue was his accuracy. With the Browns, we graded a prospect’s traits on a 1-5 scale and then factored everything into the final grade. For me, Maye is a “high variance 3” with his accuracy, meaning he’ll throw some dimes but also some ducks that aren’t even close. It seemed like a mix of foot and arm mechanics not being consistently synced up when he missed, and when he did complete medium to deeper throws, he made it hard on his receivers.
Fast forward to this season’s outlook. I’d say he will eventually become the starter because the Patriots are floundering, not because he’s proven he’s better than Jacoby Brissett. In 2022, Brissett was our starter for most of the season and did well enough to keep us in the hunt, but that was with a much better roster than what the Patriots have put together. He’s earned the starting job for now, given his ability and relationship with new OC Alex Van Pelt, but it’s a matter of time before the decision is made to go with Maye.
Through three preseason games, I have seen some improvement in Maye’s pocket confidence and have been impressed with his arm/accuracy when he can step into a clean pocket. The touchdown that was called back against Washington was a great play out of the pocket, so his creativity has been there also. However, I’m still not sold on his pocket presence when there’s traffic, and his accuracy is still inconsistent.
Is he the long-term answer in New England? I would still bet no.
Is there any New England receiver that will be worth rostering in fantasy at their given ADPs? Is that O-line so bad that Rhamondre is also a giant avoid this season? — Josh_Koons84
I’ll start with the running back since that’s a clearer answer. Rhamondre Stevenson’s 2023 was a product of a bad O-line and offense that did not let him get going. He ranked 31st in YPC (3.97) and 29th in yards before contact per attempt (1.31) for backs with 100+ carries. His season ended with a high ankle sprain in week 13, and I have to believe he felt a sense of relief it was over early.
2024 brings offensive changes geared to Stevenson’s benefit. New OC Alex Van Pelt comes in from Cleveland where he helped orchestrate a consistently potent, wide-zone rushing attack that had success no matter who was carrying the ball or blocking up front. The new RB2 in New England is Antonio Gibson, who is more effective as a receiver than a ball carrier, so Stevenson should get the lion’s share of carries. 2024 is also a contract year for Rhamondre and I’ve yet to see a feature back not put out maximum effort when he’s trying to get paid.
No, Rhamondre is not a giant avoid this season. I’d expect him to be slightly limited by the O-line but he’s a tough runner who has looked healthy in preseason action and wants to get paid. Don’t make him your RB1, but he’ll be a solid contributor all season.
The receiver question is a bit murkier. I see one guy I’d be confident in drafting, a couple I’d keep on the radar, and a bunch who won’t do much in 2024.
Rookie Ja’Lynn Polk is the one I’d want to be on my team. On film, he’s a solid route runner who can separate from (preseason) NFL defenders with short-area quickness, and his hands have been consistent. I also saw trust from both Brissett and Maye, so the early chemistry is there with both quarterbacks.
After Polk, I see Kendrick Bourne, DeMario Douglas, and KJ Osborn as guys to keep on the radar. Bourne is starting the year on the PUP list after tearing his ACL midway through 2023. He’s been productive enough in years past to stay on the radar, but you’ll have to wait until he’s healthy. Douglas is a ‘23 draft pick who will get opportunities with Bourne out, but I didn’t see the same chemistry as Polk with the QBs. I’ve always liked Osborn as a #3 guy. He’s a crafty vet who can get open vs the #2/#3 corner. However, he doesn’t have Justin Jefferson to pull better defenders off him anymore, so he’s barely on the radar. The rest of the guys are JAGs, draft at your own risk.
How good is the Baltimore O-line going to be? — hayhair29
It’s safe to say that I’m higher than most on the Baltimore O-line coming into 2024 (consult my 2024 OL Preview article). I get that there’s a significant amount of change up front for the Ravens, but in my experience playing against them twice a year, this has always been a very well-coached group that can effectively get the job done in both phases. I still expect them to perform well, but the preseason film had a couple of surprises.
The expected starter at RG is 3rd-year Daniel Faalele. This dude is beyond huge and came in to play RT, but they decided to kick him inside after drafting Roger Rosengarten this year. Faalele’s preseason film isn’t great. He’s naturally tough to get around given his size but he looked slow run blocking laterally, and I’d have concerns that things are happening too quickly for him inside in protection. Faalele winning the RG job means Ben Cleveland becomes a swing, interior player. He looked good at center and right guard but played a lot deeper into these games than I would have thought. This decision to play Faalele is a head-scratcher for me, and my main area of concern coming out of the preseason.
I was happily surprised with how well Rosengarten and LG Andrew Vorhees performed. Vorhees hadn’t played football since tearing his ACL at the 2023 Combine, but he looked very comfortable in each game. He was aggressive with quick feet and a strong initial punch but did struggle against longer interior pass rushers. He’ll better understand how to engage longer rushers the more he plays, but his preseason film should make Raven fans happy.
Rosengarten had typical preseason rookie ups and downs but much more good than bad. His footwork is good enough to play on the outside, but he’ll need time to adjust to the strength of NFL edge players. Again, that’s a typical adjustment rookie O-linemen need to make, so Raven fans should again feel confident that they have two young guys who are ready to go now.
I’m still high on the Baltimore O-line. Faalele concerns me, but I was very pleased with what I saw on film from the two young guys. Once Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum start playing, things will settle down up front.
What's your favorite position to scout? Also, what are the top 3 things you've found that correlate with success at said position? — RaiderNation
This is a fun one to end on for this mailbag edition. I’ll give my personal favorite, and then my fantasy-focus favorite.
I know they aren’t one of the big four fantasy positions, but I always enjoy evaluating defensive linemen. I’m very biased since I played defensive tackle and spent a couple of years in the
D-line room on the coaching side, but this is my favorite group to scout without question. The three things I look for with this group are; Get-off, Strength, and Pass Rush Ability/Feel.
Get-off is easy enough to define, but there’s more to it than getting out of your stance as quickly as possible. A good first step allows D-linemen to close the gap and quickly put the blocker on his heels in both phases.
Strength also has a straightforward definition but is used differently depending on a run or pass play. On the run, a D-tackle needs lower-body strength to absorb double teams and upper-body strength to steer and shed blockers. Power rushers bring the explosive first step and then strength to bull rush and drive through edge blockers.
Pass Rush Ability/Feel is a fun one to evaluate and, arguably, the most important with how prevalent the passing game is. Guys like Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa, and Aaron Donald have/had the natural ability and feel for how to set up blockers, when to drive through them, or when to win with speed. For a lot of guys, they might only have one fastball way to beat blockers, and many others have no idea what they’re doing.
For my fantasy favorite, I’ve always liked evaluating tight ends. They keep your scouting skills sharp because you get a variety of skill sets and roles, and with college guys, you can create a lot of fun projections. After watching the film, it’s fairly easy to see if a TE is a blocker only, a receiver who can’t handle being on the line of scrimmage, a fullback conversion, a possible linebacker conversion, or a true mix of blocker and receiver. With TEs, I look for Toughness, Route Running, and Hands.
Toughness and willingness as a blocker are critical for any tight end. It helps if a guy is naturally big and strong like Gronk, but it’s rare that a TE is asked to straight-up block a defensive end 1-on-1. You typically see these guys helping on double teams or cutting on the backside of a split-zone run, so being willing to throw your body around checks the box for me.
Route Running is an under-appreciated trait for tight ends. Travis Kelce has been the standard for years with his excellent body control, balance, and ability to break off defenders. You won’t see these guys running a ton of fades or blaze-outs, but being a reliable option for the quarterback adds a lot of value to any tight end.
Hands is pretty self-explanatory. These guys expect they’ll get hammered by linebackers or safeties any time they’re targeted, so having strong hands to catch in traffic is a must. If they can’t catch, they probably won’t be on the field very often.
