2023 Week 8 Fantasy Mismatch Report

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years and launched in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I’ve identified the biggest mismatches in all of this week’s games in an effort to make your fantasy and wagering decisions easier.

First, a note on some of the tools I’m using here.

All offensive/defensive line data is from the last five weeks, unless otherwise noted, in an attempt to reduce noise.

Rush Grade

Our “RUSH GRADE” offensive line stat is based simply on a formula measuring an offense’s average yardage before contact allowed on running plays — not including out-of-structure scrambles, trick plays, QB kneels, or QB sneaks. We call this statistic “adjusted yards before contact per attempt” (aYBC/A), and the Rush Grade applies to both an offense’s aYBC/A created and a defense’s aYBC/A allowed.

The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.

Pass Grade

Our “PASS GRADE” is a formula developed using “QB Pressure Rate Over Expectation.” It measures how much a quarterback should be expected to face pressure, adjusted for the quarterback’s average time to throw (a quarterback with a 3.0-second aT2T should be expected to be pressured more than one with a 2.0-second aT2T, for instance).

The higher the QBPROE number, the worse it is for an offense, and the better it is for a defense.

The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

All times Eastern

Tampa Bay at Buffalo (Thu, 8:20 PM)

Bills DL vs. Bucs OL in the run game

The Bucs haven’t been able to open a hole all year, with their best game from an aYBC/A standpoint coming in at just 1.00. And while the Bucs have tried to get other backs going in addition to Rachaad White, the numbers tell us that White — at 0.95 YBC/A — is significantly better than their other options (Ke’Shawn Vaughn, the back they’ve also tried to get going recently, has a negative YBC/A). It should be noted that the Bills’ defense generally pops in our OL/DL metrics — the Bucs have our 3rd-worst Rush Grade of the week — but what the OL/DL metrics don’t account for is how god-awful the Bills have been at tackling. Buffalo’s YBC/A is in the bottom 10 of the NFL, but their yards after contact allowed are all the way up at 3.70, which is by far the most in the NFL, a third of a yard higher than #2, Carolina. Injuries to DTs DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver, plus their best second-level defender Matt Milano, certainly don’t help.

Bills pass rush vs. Bucs OL

Defensive injuries have been the story of the year so far for the Bills, and interior rusher Ed Oliver (toe) is questionable for this one. But their edge rusher group has actually been relatively healthy, especially once Von Miller returned to action, and this is a team that has produced two of the nine top defensive games by QBPROE this season, and is tops in the NFL in that department over the last five weeks. The Bucs have their own issues, though their pass protection has been far better than their run blocking so far this season. The biggest issue this week? QB Baker Mayfield is questionable with a knee injury. A hobbled Mayfield could make this Bills pass rush all the more formidable. The Bucs have our 5th-worst Pass Grade of the week.

Houston at Carolina (Sun, 1 PM)

Texans OL vs. Panthers pass rush

I’m tired of sounding like a broken record here, but yes, by our metrics, the Panthers have a poor pass rush because, while they do sack the quarterback when they get pressure, they haven’t been getting pressure enough — they have three of the nine-worst games by QBPROE of any team this year. And though QB CJ Stroud has one of the NFL’s longest average times to throw of any QB in the NFL this year — 2.71 seconds — he’s been pressured on only 31.1% of his dropbacks, lowest of any QB in the top 10 in average time to throw. That’s a pretty remarkable number given how banged-up the Texans’ offensive line has been… and now, coming out of the bye, LT Laremy Tunsil and company will have a full week of much-needed rest. The Texans feature our #1 Pass Grade of the week.

Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Panthers outside CBs

Collins moves all around the formation, but 80% of his routes have come on the perimeter, per our charting data. And that’s where he’ll draw matchups with Donte Jackson and CJ Henderson, because it doesn’t look like Jaycee Horn is ready to come off IR yet for the Panthers. Among 128 corners with 50 or more coverage snaps played, Henderson (2.05) and Jackson (2.04) rank 6th and 7th-worst in yards per route run allowed. Jackson is 11th in PPR FP/coverage snap allowed, and Henderson is 16th. It’s a massive spot for Collins to blow up, and I expect he’ll be popular in DFS this week. I can endorse that, especially since it seems like the Texans should be able to protect CJ Stroud.

LA Rams at Dallas (Sun, 1 PM)

Rams OL vs. Cowboys DL in the run game

The Rams feature our #4 Rush Grade of the week, but it’s almost entirely based on the fact that Dallas got absolutely SHREDDED by the Cardinals in Week 3 to the tune of 5.24 aYBC/A, which is the second highest in any game so far this year (to De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert smoking the Giants in Week 5). If removing that game from the equation, the Cowboys’ 1.99 aYBC/A over the last five weeks falls from 4th-highest to 6th-lowest (0.94), and the Rams’ Rush Grade falls from #4 to #19. That outlier game did happen, and it has to be taken into account that the Cowboys have a complete meltdown on their resume, but it is still an outlier. Moreover, the Rams don’t feature a mobile QB like Arizona does, so I expect tougher sledding this week for Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman than the numbers indicate.

Minnesota at Green Bay (Sun, 1 PM)

Vikings DL vs. Packers OL in the run game

The Packers check in with our worst Rush Grade of the week, and it’s clear why — our metrics love what the Vikings’ defense has done the last five weeks on the ground, and our five-week window is enough to eliminate Minnesota’s awful performance against D’Andre Swift and the Eagles in Week 2. Over the last five weeks, only the Bears (1.74) averaged more than a full yard before contact on designed runs against Minnesota, and the Vikings’ only explosive run allowed (15+ yards) was in that game — to WR Velus Jones. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are still working in a committee here, and Green Bay’s run game has been trash all year — they have just one explosive run, a 15-yarder by Dillon against the Broncos’ woeful defense in Week 7. Advantage to the Vikings, who held Christian McCaffrey in check last week.

Vikings OL vs. Packers pass rush

The Packers’ pass rush started the year well, generating a 10+% QBPROE in each of the first two games of the season. But in each of their last four games, they’ve generated a negative pressure rate to expectation, and are coming off sacking the eminently sackable Russell Wilson just once in a horrible Week 7 loss. Meanwhile, Minnesota just did a masterful job protecting Kirk Cousins against the 49ers, allowing pressure on just 24.4% of his dropbacks (2nd-best this season), and not allowing a single sack as Kirkie picked apart San Francisco to the tune of 378 passing yards. Minnesota also sped up Cousins’ average time to throw in Week 7… something the numbers suggest he won’t have to do against the Packers. Minnesota has our #2 Pass Grade of the week.

SHADOW ALERT? Vikings CB Byron Murphy vs. Packers WR Christian Watson

I’m not officially calling this a shadow situation, but I do think it’s interesting that Murphy followed Brandon Aiyuk on 71.4% of his routes last week, after covering DJ Moore on over 50% of his routes in Week 6. And, well, we don’t know exactly how healthy Watson is after a knee scare last week (he’s practicing in full). But we do know Murphy is an exploitable corner. We have him as being responsible for a 13th-most 338 yards in his coverage this year, and a 20th-most 0.36 FP/coverage snap. Only four corners have given up more receptions than Murphy has — 29. So we think this is a matchup Watson can win… if he can stay on the damn field.

New Orleans at Indianapolis (Sun, 1 PM)

Saints OL vs. Colts pass rush

The Saints feature our #4 Pass Grade of the week, but obviously, they continue to have massive offensive line problems. Both of their starting tackles — James Hurst and Ryan Ramczyk — were out last week against the Jags, and 2022 first-round pick Trevor Penning has been so bad that he played just 6 snaps despite both tackles being out. As a result, New Orleans sped up Derek Carr’s average time to throw to a season-low 2.18 (his previous low was 2.40). The Saints played last Thursday night, so there’s a chance both Hurst (ankle) and Ramczyk (concussion) can go against this mediocre Colts pass rush, but if not, note that Indy’s 4.51% QBPROE last week against the Browns was their 2nd-best of the season.

New England at Miami (Sun, 1 PM)

Dolphins OL vs. Patriots pass rush

A rematch! The Patriots’ pass rush has generated a positive PROE just twice this year, and once was against Zach Wilson. The other, though, came last week against the Bills and Josh Allen, in what appeared to be a classic Bill Belichick game — take away the top weapon (Stefon Diggs) and frustrate the hell out of the quarterback. While the first meeting between these two teams back in Week 2 saw Belichick do a solid job taking out Tyreek Hill, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel knew he had to get the ball out of Tua Tagovailoa’s hands as quickly as possible. Already the NFL’s fastest QB by average time to throw, Tua’s 1.90 aT2T back in Week 2 against Belichick was the 2nd-fastest such time in any start by a quarterback this year. We’ll see if it’s more of the same, given the Dolphins’ offensive line injuries. They feature our #5 Pass Grade of the week.

NY Jets at NY Giants (Sun, 1 PM)

Jets OL vs. Giants DL in the run game

The last time we saw Breece Hall, he was having trouble finding room to run against the Eagles’ nasty front seven (12 carries, 39 yards), though he still produced a huge fantasy game with 5/54 receiving and a walk-in touchdown that Philly let him score in order to get the ball back late in the game. So the fact that he can produce in a bad matchup is a good sign for this week, because the Jets draw our #3 Rush Grade of the week. No team has given up more aYBC/A over the last five weeks than the Giants’ 2.28, and Breece saw the training wheels come off in Week 6 — he played on 68% of the Jets’ snaps and saw 76% of their backfield XFP, both season-highs. This week, he gets a glorious matchup. Unleash him!

Jets pass rush vs. Giants OL

I’m admittedly speculating here, but I wonder if part of the reason Tyrod Taylor has had more success moving the football than Daniel Jones this year is simply because Tyrod never had the opportunity to get shellshocked behind a decimated offensive line and knew what to expect coming into action when Jones (neck) went down. The good news for Taylor or Dimes is that it appears LT Andrew Thomas (hamstring) and C John Michael Schmitz (shoulder) both have a chance to play this week after returning to practice. The bad news is it’ll be against the nasty Jets defense if they do go. The Giants have our worst Pass Grade of the week, and if I were coach Brian Daboll, this would not be the defense against which I’d bring back Jones, even if he’s cleared for contact.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (Sun, 1 PM)

Jaguars WR Christian Kirk vs. Steelers CB Patrick Peterson

The Steelers are, in general, a great matchup for WRs, giving up the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to the position — and they’re a better matchup for outside WRs, which points to this being a strong matchup for Calvin Ridley. But our WR/CB Matchup Tool has identified Kirk as having the bigger advantage here against P2 in the slot. Peterson isn’t always a slot CB — he covers about 30% of his routes there — but he ran his most snaps all season from inside in Week 7. Among CBs with 25% or more of his snaps in the slot this year, Peterson has given up the 6th-most PPR FP/coverage snap. It’s worth noting that he held Cooper Kupp catchless last week in his primary coverage, though Kupp had two uncharacteristic drops. I wouldn’t be shocked if Peterson continues to line up inside against Kirk, because the Steelers’ other slot option, Chandon Sullivan, is one of PFF’s bottom-5 graded corners.

Atlanta at Tennessee (Sun, 1 PM)

Falcons DL vs. Titans OL in the run game

The Titans check in with our 2nd-worst Rush Grade of the week. Atlanta’s run defense has been spectacular for most of the year, but especially lately — they’ve surrendered under a yard before contact on designed runs in their last four games, and four of their last five. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry has averaged 5.60 YPC and 3.12 YBC/A in two games in which Tennessee was favored, compared to 3.90 YP and 0.77 YBC/A in four games in which Tennessee was an underdog. With Ryan Tannehill (ankle) hurt and Will Levis expected to make his first NFL start on Sunday, the Titans are 3-point home dogs to the annoying — but effective — Falcons. Expect Atlanta to load up the box and try to force Levis to beat them with his arm. That’s bad news for Henry… in the event he isn’t traded before Sunday’s game.

SHADOW ALERT! Falcons CB AJ Terrell vs. Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins

Terrell’s one of the best corners in the NFL, but he hasn’t been the stingiest we’ve ever seen him this year — he’s allowed touchdowns to two of his primary shadows this year, with Calvin Ridley scoring on him in Week 4 and Mike Evans getting on top of him last week. That’s not the biggest concern for me with Hopkins here. The concern is the obvious one — how effectively can Will Levis and/or Malik Willis get him the ball? I’m not counting on a massive production number here for Hopkins, and the most Hopkins owners can probably hope for going forward is that he’s traded to a team with a competent passing game.

Philadelphia at Washington (Sun, 1 PM)

Eagles pass rush vs. Commanders OL

Tell me, does it shock you that a quarterback who is on pace to shatter the NFL sacks taken record — by 21 — has our 2nd-worst Pass Grade of the week? Sam Howell has been sacked 40 times so far this year, and we’ve charted 9 of those sacks being exclusively his fault, which is easily the most in the NFL (and there are likely others with a gray area). The last time these two teams played back in Week 4, Howell actually played pretty damn well overall, despite — of course — Philly sacking him 5 times. Since then, though, Howell’s play has dropped off. Washington clearly knows that Howell is running himself into sacks and turnovers, and they’re trying to get the ball out of his hands quickly. His 2.44 average time to throw last week against the Giants was his 2nd-fastest of the year, but he still took 6 sacks. And that was against the Giants! The guess here is Howell doesn’t play nearly as well against Philly as he did in the first game, especially since Philly has quickly fixed some of its coverage issues and has traded for S Kevin Byard.

Cleveland at Seattle (Sun, 4:05 PM)

Browns DL vs. Seahawks OL in the run game

The Seahawks feature our 5th-worst Rush Grade of the week, mostly because Cleveland’s 0.54 aYBC/A allowed over the last five weeks of 0.54 is by far the lowest in the NFL. But cracks in the armor have been starting to show — after contact. The Browns have given up over 100 non-scramble rush yards in three consecutive games, but in only one of those games — against Baltimore in Week 4 — did they allow over 1.00 YBC/A. But the Browns’ 3.40 yards after contact allowed per attempt this year on such runs is 5th-most in the NFL. They owe that to their 54 missed tackles on such runs, tied for 2nd-most in the league. And whaddaya know? Kenneth Walker’s 35 missed tackles forced are also tied for 2nd-most in the NFL. The trench numbers suggest Walker will have a tough time getting to the second level. But if he gets there, he’ll be dangerous.

Browns pass rush vs. Seahawks OL

The Browns’ defense just had a stinker against Gardner Minshew and the Colts, but our trench metrics still like them a lot this week against Seattle, in both the run and pass games. The Seahawks feature our 3rd-worst Pass Grade of the week against DPOY favorite Myles Garrett and company. And even though Cleveland gave up 38 to Minshew, it wasn’t for a lack of pressure — the Browns’ 24.31% QBPROE was their highest of the year. Seattle has some interior OL concerns with C Evan Brown and RG Phil Haynes banged up, as well.

Baltimore at Arizona (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Cardinals OL vs. Ravens DL in the run game

The Cardinals pop in our Rush Grade every week, and they have the #1 Rush Grade of Week 8 despite what many would consider a tough matchup with the Ravens. But I think a lot of the success they’ve had in the aYBC/A metric is because of the Week 3 game against Dallas, which was an absolutely abysmal showing by the Cowboys’ defense — all of Josh Dobbs, James Conner, and Rondale Moore had long runs without any contact close to the line of scrimmage. Removing Week 3 from the equation, Arizona falls from 1st to 5th in both aYBC/A and Rush Grade. Arizona’s offensive line has probably been better than Cardinal fans would have expected, though I wouldn’t consider it a good unit. And Baltimore has been about a neutral matchup on the ground, allowing an 11th-most aYBC/A defensively over the last five weeks. I also think Dobbs is a big factor here with his legs. Nonetheless, this offense is starting to struggle more — as you might expect without Conner — and I wouldn’t exactly be rushing to fire up Emari Demercado in DFS this week. If you want some fuel to that fire, though, the Ravens have given up a 9th-most FP above average to RBs as pass catchers over the last five weeks, and Demercado can get it done in that department.

Ravens OL vs. Cardinals DL in the run game

Coincidentally, the Ravens feature our #2 Rush Grade of the week against Arizona’s defensive front in Week 8. Obviously, Lamar Jackson is humming along as the leader among all QBs in rushing with 363 yards, of which 174 yards have come on designed runs. On those designed runs, Lamar is averaging an insane 4.16 YBC/A, most among any QB with 10 or more designed runs. So that plays into Baltimore’s Rush Grade. But Arizona has given up a 7th-most 1.77 aYBC/A over the last five weeks, and it’s a good matchup for Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, as well — Arizona has allowed 4.0 FP above average to RBs on the ground alone over the last five weeks, 4th-most in the NFL.

Ravens Perimeter WRs vs. Cardinals CB Marco Wilson

Congratulations to beleaguered Commanders CB Emmanuel Forbes! We finally have charted a corner as having given up more total receiving yards this year, and it’s Wilson, who now edges Forbes in that category — 477 to 461. We’ve charted Wilson as also having given up the most receptions (33) and first downs (24) of all corners. I would anticipate Zay Flowers to be popular on the DFS slate given this matchup, but if there’s ever a spot for Odell Beckham to show he has something left, well, this is it.

Kansas City at Denver (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Chiefs pass rush vs. Broncos OL

Patrick Mahomes had one of his vintage 400-yard, 4-TD games against the Chargers last week, but really, up until that point — and even including that point — it had been the defense that had really been making things go for Kansas City. Two weeks ago against these same Broncos, they sacked Russell Wilson 4 times, picked him off twice, and pressured him at a 17.68% rate above expectation… their 2nd-highest of the season, compared only to what they did to Justin Fields (who is even more sack-happy than Russ). Oh, and since then? The Chiefs have added Charles Omenihu to their pass rush. The Broncos have our 4th-worst Pass Grade of the week.

Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie vs. Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy

You know all about the last time these two teams played. NFL Network analyst Steve Smith flat-out challenged Jeudy to step up and be the receiver people think he is, and the two got into an altercation on the field. And Jeudy proceeded to come up and put up an absolute stinkbomb, catching 3 of 5 targets for 14 yards. Jeudy aligned in the coverage of Chiefs slot CB Trent McDuffie on 37.5% of his routes two weeks ago. He did not catch a single pass in his coverage. And against someone Smith would likely call a far better receiver than Jeudy — the Chargers’ Keenan Allen — McDuffie gave up just 1 catch for 8 yards in his primary coverage last week. I’m benching Jeudy everywhere.

Cincinnati at San Francisco (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Bengals CB Mike Hilton vs. 49ers WR Jauan Jennings

Jennings may well have been a useful Week 7 bye/injury fill-in last week against the Vikings. With Deebo Samuel out, “Third-and-Jennings” managed 5 catches for 54 yards on 9 targets. But there is quite a bit working against him this week. First of all, QB Brock Purdy is not expected to play, as he was a surprising addition to the concussion protocol on Wednesday, and it’s a short week to get ready after a Monday night game. So it’ll be Sam Darnold starting for the 49ers — in an opportunity for the “Brock Purdy-is-a-System-QB Bros” to get their point proven once and for all. But more importantly, Jennings draws a matchup with Hilton. Among CBs with 100 or more coverage snaps and the majority of those snaps coming from the slot, Hilton has allowed just 0.54 YPRR, 2nd-fewest to only Buffalo’s Taron Johnson. His 0.11 PPR FP/coverage snap is fewest among all such players. It’s a good thing no teams are on bye this week, because dumpster-diving with Jennings in this matchup is unadvisable.

Chicago at LA Chargers (Sun, 8:20 PM)

Bears OL vs. Chargers DL in the run game

Our top Rush Grades this week seem to have a lot of caveats to them — Chicago checking in with our #5 Grade is obviously going to have to be asterisked with the fact that Justin Fields’ designed runs aren’t going to be part of their plan in Week 8. Nonetheless, the Bears blocked it up well for D’Onta Foreman in Week 7 with Tyson Bagent at QB, averaging 2.00 aYBC/A (their fourth-best game of the year). Over the last five weeks, the Chargers have been an almost perfectly neutral matchup for opposing RBs, with a -0.4 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed. This matchup doesn’t scare me away on the face of it, but I’m not as excited about it as our numbers are. The fact that G Teven Jenkins is back is a positive for the Bears, though.

Bears DL vs. Chargers OL in the run game

Austin Ekeler returned from his high ankle sprain against the Cowboys in Week 6, but since then, he’s found virtually no room to run — he has just 72 yards on 28 carries over the last two games, and just 18 of those 72 yards have come before contact. Only the Bucs, Titans, and Packers have opened smaller rushing lanes than the Chargers over the past five weeks, while Chicago — believe it or not — is allowing just 1.00 aYBC/A over that same span, a bottom-5 number in the NFL. Chicago hasn’t allowed 100+ designed rushing yards since Week 3… also the last time they allowed a full yard before contact per run.

Las Vegas at Detroit (Mon, 8:15 PM)

Raiders OL vs. Lions pass rush

Here is what I wrote about the Raiders’ offensive line in last week’s Mismatch Report, as it related to their quarterback decision: “I also find it interesting that in Aidan O’Connell’s lone start this year — Week 4 against the Chargers — he faced pressure on just 19.6% of his dropbacks, the lowest number for any Raider QB in a full game this year. The difference is that, with his inexperience, O’Connell was sacked on 77.8% of dropbacks when pressured, the highest number of any quarterback in any start this year. So even if the Bears rarely get to O’Connell, the numbers suggest they’ll get him down when they do. If the Raiders want a quarterback who isn’t likely to completely fall apart when pressured this week, they’ll go to Brian Hoyer.” WELP! While Hoyer was sacked on just 1 of his 5 pressured dropbacks, it was what he did when not pressured that was a disaster against the Bears, completing just 60.7% of his clean-pocket passes, with 2 INT and a 42.1 passer rating. If Jimmy Garoppolo (back) isn’t ready to play on Monday night, I’d expect Vegas will go back to the rookie O’Connell. And the numbers suggest a decent matchup, with our #3 Pass Grade of the week looming against the Lions. Detroit has generated a negative QBPROE in three of its last four games.