2023 Week 7 Fantasy Mismatch Report

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years and launched in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I’ve identified the biggest mismatches in all of this week’s games in an effort to make your fantasy and wagering decisions easier.

First, a note on some of the tools I’m using here.

All offensive/defensive line data is from the last five weeks, unless otherwise noted.

Rush Grade

Our “RUSH GRADE” offensive line stat is based simply on a formula measuring an offense’s average yardage before contact on non-QB rush attempts (a catch-all way to eliminate scrambles) versus a defense’s average yards per contact allowed on non-QB rush attempts.

The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.

Pass Grade

Our “PASS GRADE” is a formula developed using “QB Pressure Rate Over Expectation.” It measures how much a quarterback should be expected to face pressure, adjusted for the quarterback’s average time to throw (a quarterback with a 3.0-second aT2T should be expected to be pressured more than one with a 2.0-second aT2T, for instance).

The higher the QBPROE number, the worse it is for an offense, and the better it is for a defense.

The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

All times Eastern

Jacksonville at New Orleans (Thu, 8:20 PM)

Saints DL vs. Jaguars OL in the run game

Travis Etienne has developed into one of fantasy football’s premier bell cows. Here’s what Scott Barrett wrote about him in this week’s Everything Report: “Etienne leads all RBs in touches (134). Tank Bigsby is no longer vulturing goal-line work – over the last three weeks, Etienne has handled 90% of the team’s snaps inside the 10-yard-line (9 of 10). Across the full season, Etienne ranks 4th in snap share (78.5%), 2nd in carries per game (18.8), 7th in route share (51.0%), 12th in targets per game (3.8), 10th in XFP/G (16.0), and 6th in FPG (19.2).” So despite Jacksonville checking in with our 3rd-worst Rush Grade of the week, no one is sitting Etienne. But it is worth noting that Etienne has been stuffed on 50% or more of his runs in four of six games this year, and the Saints’ 0.91 aYBC/A allowed over the last five weeks is 4th-lowest on the slate. For the first time all season last week against the Texans, New Orleans allowed an opponent to post over 100 non-scramble rush yards, but Houston was also the fifth consecutive opponent the Saints held below 4.0 YPC on such runs. Moreover, the Jags could be down both starting guards — Walker Little and Brandon Scherff — with injuries on the short week. QB Trevor Lawrence (knee) could be playing banged up, to boot, which would place more importance on Etienne and the run game. As noted, Etienne’s role is massive. But this could be a week when he needs every one of those projected touches to reach value.

Saints OL vs. Jaguars pass rush

The Saints check in with our #2 Pass Grade of the week, but our numbers can’t account for the fact that LT James Hurst, RT Ryan Ramcyzk, and swing tackle Landon Young are all hurt. New Orleans already benched 2022 first-round pick T Trevor Penning, but he’s likely going to have to fill in on Thursday night somewhere. Of course, New Orleans is helped by the fact that the Jaguars’ -3.83% QBPROE is the worst on the Week 7 slate — just behind the Saints themselves. That said, with all the OL injuries for New Orleans, this could be a get-well spot for the Jaguars’ disappointing rush.

Jaguars WR Christian Kirk vs. Saints CB Alontae Taylor

First of all, this matchup favors Kirk straight up — Kirk is one of the premier slot receivers in the NFL, and among CBs with 50% or more coverage snaps in the slot, Taylor’s 1.59 YPRR allowed is 3rd-most, while his .33 FP/coverage snap allowed is 4th-most. But, as our Chris Wecht pointed out to me on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio on Thursday morning, that’s not all: “The Saints play the 5th most zone coverage in the NFL (75% of the time). Kirk is the Jaguars’ zone killer — 2.06 YPRR vs zone compared to 1.70 for Calvin Ridley. On the flip side, Ridley is their man beater with 3.03 YPRR, compared to Kirk’s 1.61.” I’m expecting a big Kirk game on Thursday night… hopefully with Trevor Lawrence at QB.

Detroit at Baltimore (Sun, 1 PM)

Ravens CB Arthur Maulet vs. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

I’m just pointing this matchup out because it could be a fun one — by our numbers, Maulet has given up the fewest yards per route run of any CB with 50 or more coverage snaps — 0.03. Of course, context is needed. In his last three games, his predominant assignments have been Kyle Philips, Allen Robinson, and Elijah Moore playing with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB. This is his first real test, and I’m giving the advantage to St. Brown despite the numbers, but shoutout to Maulet for performing damn well in the slot so far.

Las Vegas at Chicago (Sun, 1 PM)

Bears OL vs. Raiders DL in the run game

The Bears check in with our #3 Rush Grade of the week, but there’s obviously a big caveat here — our Rush Grade takes designed QB runs into account, and Chicago simply will not have that aspect of their game working with Justin Fields (thumb) out and Tyson Bagent starting. Over the last five weeks, the Raiders’ defense is still allowing an 8th-most 1.49 aYBC/A on the ground, so this is an exploitable run game matchup, but the Bears’ backs — likely D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson, presuming the latter clears concussion protocol — are going to have more on their plates without the influence of Fields’ legs.

Bears DL vs. Raiders OL in the run game

The Bears’ run defense has been stifling of late, holding Green Bay, Washington, and Minnesota to just 138 yards on 58 non-scramble rush attempts the last three weeks, with just 25 of those yards coming before contact. Of course, the Commanders didn’t even try to run the ball — they dropped back Sam Howell a ridiculous 55 consecutive times, which might be an NFL record. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs has been a bell cow who has needed all of his touches to make value for fantasy, because he’s struggled to find room to run — he hasn’t averaged more than 3.65 YPC in any game this year. Nonetheless, as Scott Barrett wrote in this week’s Everything Report: “He currently ranks 1st in XFP per team play (0.31), 3rd in snap share (79.4%), 3rd in carry share (72.3%), and 2nd in target share (17.3%, up from 10.6% last year). He ranks 4th among all RBs in XFP/G (19.6), although he ranks only 15th in FPG (14.9). In other words, he’s a massive positive regression candidate.” Unfortunately, our numbers have this as the 4th-worst Rush Grade of the week, and the Bears can likely key on him with Jimmy Garoppolo (back) likely out, but Jacobs is still a slam-dunk RB1.

Raiders OL vs. Bears pass rush

The Raiders are unlikely to have Jimmy Garoppolo (back) this week, but the good news for either Aidan O’Connell or Brian Hoyer (coach Josh McDaniels has not yet said who will start) is that the Las Vegas OL has actually been pretty solid this year, and the Bears’ pass rush is sufficiently bad enough that the Raiders check in with our #3 Pass Grade of the week. I also find it interesting that in O’Connell’s lone start this year — Week 4 against the Chargers — he faced pressure on just 19.6% of his dropbacks, the lowest number for any Raider QB in a full game this year. The difference is that, with his inexperience, O’Connell was sacked on 77.8% of dropbacks when pressured, the highest number of any quarterback in any start this year. So even if the Bears rarely get to O’Connell, the numbers suggest they’ll get him down when they do. If the Raiders want a quarterback who isn’t likely to completely fall apart when pressured this week, they’ll go to Hoyer.

Cleveland at Indianapolis (Sun, 1 PM)

Colts DL vs. Browns OL in the run game

The Browns check in with our 2nd-worst Rush Grade of the week, as the 0.59 aYBC/A they’ve posted over the last five weeks is the worst in the NFL. But I’m not entirely sure their situation is as dire as the numbers bear out. First of all, Jerome Ford’s three worst games of the year in YBC/A came in Weeks 1-3. He was backing up Nick Chubb for a good portion of that, and the Browns were also adjusting to life without RT Jack Conklin. Ford’s best game in that department came against a nasty 49ers defense last week, on which he also posted a season-low 29.4% stuff rate. And now G Joel Bitonio is expected back, having missed last week’s game after a knee scope. Meanwhile, the Colts’ premier interior run stuffer, Grover Stewart, is suspended six games for violating the NFL’s PED policy. I think Ford remains a decent RB2 this week, with Kareem Hunt a viable FLEX play with so many RBs injured or on bye — Hunt is the Browns’ preferred red-zone option, where Ford hasn’t played a single snap since Week 3.

Browns CB Greg Newsome vs. Colts WR Josh Downs

Newsome has been awesome this year for Cleveland so far. Among qualified CBs who play more than 50% of their coverage snaps in the slot, Newsome has allowed the 7th-fewest PPR FP/CS (0.16), and no wide receiver has posted more than 12 yards on him in primary coverage — only Mark Andrews has done so, and he did it on a lone 36-yard reception. Downs has been a target hound, with at least 5 targets in five of six games as a rookie, and his low aDOT targets are the kind that Gardner Minshew loves to pepper receivers with. But this is a rough matchup for the first-year receiver, against a rock-solid CB like Newsome with a QB who turned the ball over four times last week.

Buffalo at New England (Sun, 1 PM)

Bills pass rush vs. Patriots OL

On the Week 7 slate, no team pass rush has a higher QBPROE than Buffalo over the last five weeks (13.14%), while only the 49ers and Browns have pressured QBs on a higher percentage of dropbacks than the Bills (39.3%). So it’s no surprise that the Patriots check in with our 2nd-worst Rush Grade of the week. And though he’s played just limited snaps since returning in Week 5, it might not be a coincidence that two of the Bills’ three best defensive games by QBPROE have come with Von Miller in the lineup. Mac Jones has been one of the worst QBs in the NFL this year, and the Patriots still have a dinged-up Cole Strange up front. It’s another brutal matchup for Bill Belichick’s boys.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots CB JC Jackson vs. Bills WR Stefon Diggs

Jackson didn’t “shadow” the Raiders’ Davante Adams entirely in his first full game back with the Patriots, but he was close to clearing the 50% threshold — he lined up across from Adams on 48.5% of his routes, including playing both left and right CB. Jackson played 96% of the offensive snaps after playing just 50% in Week 5 against the Saints. Jackson surrendered just 1 catch for 21 yards on 4 targets to Adams, and Adams was so frustrated with his usage that reports of his discontent with the Raiders emerged on social media this week. The last time Jackson was in New England in 2021, he had two matchups with Diggs and shadowed him both times — he surrendered 7/101/1 on 14 targets in two games in his primary coverage, with Diggs putting up most of that in their later matchup that season. In the first matchup, there were extreme winds in Buffalo, and the Patriots won by throwing just 3 passes, while Josh Allen had just 145 yards passing on 30 attempts. So my take? Advantage, Diggs.

Washington at NY Giants (Sun, 1 PM)

Commanders OL vs. Giants DL in the run game

There have been few things more reliable this season for fantasy football than targeting the Giants’ defense on the ground. New York has given up at least 110 rushing yards on non-scramble runs in every game so far this year, while allowing a league-worst 2.45 aYBC/A over the last five weeks. Yes, Miami’s absurd 6.41 YBC/A in Week 5 had a lot to do with that, but Bills runners also lit up New York last Sunday night to the tune of 2.44 aYBC/A. New York has also allowed 8 rushing TD, and at least one score in five of six games. The Commanders’ Brian Robinson has been a touchdown-dependent RB2, but this is as good a spot as any for Robinson to find his way into the box.

Commanders pass rush vs. Giants OL

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before — the Giants have our worst Pass Grade of the week. While it’s encouraging that signed-fresh-off-the-couch Justin Pugh played pretty well in his first game in a calendar year, it’s not good for the Giants that he might well have been their top performer up front in Week 6 against Buffalo. And once again, the Giants had to go back to an old friend given how decimated their line is with injuries — they signed Tyre Phillips to their active roster from the Eagles’ practice squad this week. Tyrod Taylor played pretty well last week, maybe because he hasn’t been subject to the constant pressure that the shellshocked Daniel Jones has. Maybe a week off did Jones (neck) good, but it’s another brutal matchup this week, with the Commanders’ rush.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (Sun, 1 PM)

Falcons DL vs. Bucs OL in the run game

Bucs RB Rachaad White still has an exceptional workload. Here’s what Scott Barrett wrote about him in this week’s Everything Report: “White played on 80% of the team’s snaps in Week 6, which is great (3rd-most among all RBs). But he handled just 44% of the team’s carries. The good news, I suppose, is that his primary competition – Ke’Shawn Vaughn – averaged just 1.13 yards per opportunity in Week 6, and averages just 1.56 on the full season.” Vaughn’s usage last week suggests the Bucs really are looking for something more in the run game. But it’s possible that it’s mostly the line to blame. At just 0.64 aYBC/A over the last five weeks, the Bucs are 2nd-worst in the NFL. And Atlanta’s front has been legitimately fantastic, holding four of their last five opponents to 0.65 YBC/A or worse on non-scramble runs. We love Rachaad’s role, but his situation continues to hold him back. The Bucs check in with our worst Rush Grade of the week.

Pittsburgh at LA Rams (Sun, 4:05 PM)

Rams DL vs. Steelers OL in the run game

The Steelers were off last week, so we’ll see if the rest does their offensive line — and their offense in general — any good. It is, at least, a positive that the Steelers’ best three games in terms of non-scramble rushing yards came in their three games before the bye. And though the Steelers’ 0.85 aYBC/A over the last five weeks is 8th-lowest, that still includes the Week 2 game against Cleveland, when they posted a preposterously bad -0.94 aYBC/A, the worst such game by any team all season (Cleveland also forced the second-worst game, by the way). Removing that game from the equation, and the Steelers’ aYBC/A over the last five weeks is 1.24, which still isn’t good, but it would rank 18th among all teams over that span, so not horrifically bad. So despite the Steelers ranking as our 5th-worst Rush Grade of the week, I don’t find this matchup to be particularly restrictive — the Rams have a slightly below-average run defense per our metrics. I’m much more concerned about the Steelers’ line, which had injuries to LT Dan Moore (maybe a net positive for Pittsburgh, honestly) and RG James Daniels before the bye. I’m also curious to see the Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren split after a week off.

Steelers pass rush vs. Rams OL

The Rams check in with our 5th-worst Pass Grade of the week, which is exceptionally notable because of how wide Matthew Stafford’s splits are this year. When not pressured, his 8.15 YPA is 7th-highest in the NFL, while his 5.40 YPA when pressured is 11th-worst. His QB rating of 42.9 when under pressure is 5th-worst in the league, and his -21.3% CPOE is 2nd-worst. In general, Stafford is playing really good football, but there’s obviously a wonderful chance for TJ Watt and company to slop things up. The Rams’ 7.16% QBPROE over expectation allowed over the last five weeks’ is 5th-highest on this slate, and the Steelers’ 7.91% QBPROE generated is 6th-highest. Don’t be surprised if Stafford turns the ball over a couple of times this week.

Rams WR Cooper Kupp vs. Steelers CB Patrick Peterson

This will not be a “shadow” situation, but Kupp lines up at RWR or in the slot 68% of the time, and that is where Peterson will be 95% of the time, so this is the most likely Kupp matchup we see this week. A former All-Pro, Peterson is not close to what he once was. His 0.37 YPRR allowed is 17th-most among qualified corners, and so far this year, no team has allowed more than Pittsburgh’s 27.8 FPG to an opponent’s WR1. I think Kupp will have an opportunity to go absolutely wild in this one.

Arizona at Seattle (Sun, 4:05 PM)

Seahawks pass rush vs. Cardinals OL

The Cardinals’ offense has started to come back to earth after a pretty successful start — by their expected standards — to this season. After throwing no INTs and losing just 2 fumbles through the first four games of the season, QB Joshua Dobbs has thrown 3 picks and lost 2 more fumbles in Arizona’s last two games alone. He’s completed just 49.3% of his passes the last two weeks, and the Cards failed to get into in end zone in Week 6 against the Rams, their first game without their best offensive player, RB James Conner. The good news for Dobbs is that, per completion percentage over expectation, he doesn’t really drop off much when under pressure — his -0.6% CPOE when pressured is virtually identical to his -0.3% when kept clean, the smallest margin of any NFL starter this year. But unfortunately for Dobbs, the last two weeks have shown why he’s only keeping the seat warm for Kyler Murray, who returned to practice this week. The Seahawks’ surprising pass rush — pressuring QBs at a top-5 rate over the last five weeks on this slate — should have no problem getting to Dobbs. The Cardinals feature our 3rd-worst Pass Grade of the week.

Seahawks WR DK Metcalf vs. Cardinals CB Marco Wilson

Metcalf runs the majority of his routes — 60% — from the left side of the formation, where he’ll face off against the Cardinals’ Wilson most of the time, as Wilson aligns at RCB 68% of the time. That’s a massive win for Metcalf. Wilson has allowed a 5th-most .44 FP/coverage snap this year, and his 424 yards surrendered in primary coverage are 2nd-most to only the much-maligned rookie, Emmanuel Forbes of the Commanders. This is an absolute blowup spot for DK, presuming he’s still good to go playing through his rib injury.

Green Bay at Denver (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Packers OL vs. Broncos pass rush

The Packers check in with our top Pass Grade of the week, and that’s no surprise. Check out what Jake Tribbey had to say in this week’s DFS Early Look: “The Denver Broncos defense has pressured opposing QBs just 37 times this season (6th-worst among teams with six games played). Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers are PFF’s 4th-highest graded pass-blocking offensive line, and QB Jordan Love has faced the 5th-fewest pressures per game of any starting QB (10.8). And unpressured dropbacks are one of the most important things we can look for when assessing a QB’s matchup.” Our numbers have the Broncos with a basically neutral 0.66% QBPROE, and soon-to-be-tanking Denver also released pass rusher Frank Clark last week after just two games in orange. I know Jordan Love looked crappy against the Raiders in primetime the last time we saw him, but if ever there was a spot for him to start putting up some numbers, with a healthier Aaron Jones and Christian Watson around him, this is it.

Packers pass rush vs. Broncos OL

The Broncos have our 4th-worst Pass Grade of the week, almost entirely because of their inflated 14.46% QBPROE allowed, which is a symptom of a Russell Wilson offense, especially the current version of Wilson. The Broncos are weeks away from a complete teardown, and Wilson might well be in his last year as the Broncos’ starting QB, as Sean Payton tries to angle Denver toward the top of the 2024 NFL Draft (in which they actually have their own first-round pick). The Packers’ pass rush is decent, but nothing to write home about. Russ — who is responsible for 5 of the sacks he’s taken, tied for 3rd-most in the NFL — could make them look better than they are.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain vs. Packers WR Christian Watson

Though they held the Chiefs in relative check last week, this Broncos defense remains historically bad, and even Surtain’s excellence has been lessened — he’s middle-of-the-pack in terms of both PPR FP/coverage snap (0.27) and YPRR allowed (1.42) this season. I should, of course, point out that 13.8 of the 54.5 FP we’ve charted Surtain allowing this year came on a single bomb from Mike White to Robbie Chosen after the Broncos had clearly already given up in their embarrassing loss to the Dolphins, which is over 25% of the production Surtain has allowed this year — he drops to 0.20 PPR FP/coverage snap without it. Our read is he’ll follow Watson, and of course, Watson is the type of receiver who can make his fantasy day with just a single catch.

LA Chargers at Kansas City (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Chiefs OL vs. Chargers pass rush

The Chiefs are 5th in the NFL in yards per play at 5.7, but because this is Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, it’s hard not to be disappointed by that — the last time the Chiefs finished below 6.0 yards per play came in 2016, the year before Mahomes was drafted and two years before he’d take the reins from Alex Smith. You know the Chiefs aren’t happy with it either, given they just traded for Mecole Hardman after letting him walk in free agency. But for the most part, the offensive line hasn’t been the reason Kansas City has struggled, by their standard. Their -0.30% QBPROE is a top-10 number on the Week 7 slate, while the Chargers’ -1.67% is 5th-worst defensively.

Chiefs WR Rashee Rice vs. Chargers CB Ja’Sir Taylor

The hope is the Mecole Hardman trade doesn’t lead to the Chiefs playing Rashee Rice less… Hardman was their predominant slot receiver last year (50.5% slot route rate), as Rice is this year (64.1%). I don’t personally think it will — the Chiefs should put either Hardman or Rice on the outside. Once Hardman is fully up to speed (and it shouldn’t take long, given he knows the offense), I think Rice will move outside, where his 3.54 YPRR is second on the team, to only Travis Kelce. But if Rice continues to play mostly out of the slot this week, he draws a juicy matchup with Taylor, who allows 1.65 YPRR on the year, second-most to only Seattle’s Coby Bryant among CBs who have played more than half their coverage snaps in the slot. And if you think Hardman will kick Rice outside more, well, all the better, given the small sample we have shows Rice can win from that alignment, as well.

Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie vs. Chargers WR Keenan Allen

This could be the matchup of the week for WR/CB film nerds. McDuffie has already aligned himself with the elite slot CBs in the NFL — his 0.13 PPR FP/coverage snap is 4th-fewest among qualified slot CBs, his 0.72 YPRR is 5th-fewest, and his 4 first downs allowed on 19 targets (21.1%) is 2nd-best among all slot CBs targeted 10 or more times, behind only Mike Hilton (10%). Meanwhile, Professor Keenbean’s 55.2 YPG in the slot is 3rd-most in the NFL, behind only Cooper Kupp (72.0) and Adam Thielen (58.2). This is expected to be the first true Allen/McDuffie battle, as both guys were hurt at times last year. McDuffie aligned over Allen on just 7 routes last season … and did not allow a catch.

Miami at Philadelphia (Sun, 8:20 PM)

Dolphins OL vs. Eagles DL in the run game

I was surprised to see Miami pop up here with our #1 Rush Grade, simply because of how good the Eagles’ run defense is, but Mike McDaniel’s exceptional scheme and the speed of the Dolphins’ RBs has meant they’ve opened by far the most yards before contact on non-scramble runs over the last five weeks — 2.91. Of course, there are plenty of caveats — both good and bad — that have to be taken into account for Miami here. First of all, a large portion of their exceptional aYBC/A comes from De’Von Achane, who has averaged over 6 YBC/A but is on IR with a knee injury. Secondly, LT Terron Armstead is on IR, as well, and C Connor Williams has missed some time with an injury (he could return this week). On the positive side for Miami, Eagle DT Jalen Carter is questionable with an ankle injury, while Philly’s leading tackler, S Reed Blankenship, is questionable with a rib injury. So far this year, only the Lions have given up fewer rushing yards than the Eagles, and no team has accumulated even 75 non-scramble rushing yards on Philly — the Eagles have also allowed only two explosive runs all year, and that’s basically Miami’s entire game. You obviously can’t sit Raheem Mostert, and our line metrics suggest Miami has the advantage here. But this will be fascinating to watch.

Eagles OL vs. Dolphins DL in the run game

The Eagles have been a mainstay on this list for Rush Grades (#2 this week), but they really struggled to move the ball on the ground last week against the Jets — they had just 58 yards on 19 non-scramble rushes, a season-low total on a season-low 3.05 YPC. Meanwhile, Miami is coming off giving up 108 such yards to Chuba Hubbard and the Carolina Panthers, not exactly the kind of team I’d consider a rushing powerhouse. Nonetheless, the Eagles have a potentially huge issue if RT Lane Johnson (ankle) can’t play this week. That would manifest itself more in pass protection, as it did last week against the Jets (RT Jack Driscoll was an absolute pylon), but certainly, Johnson being out there would help matters for D’Andre Swift and company. Without him, Philly has backups at both RT (Driscoll) and RG (Sua Opeta). While this game could turn into a pass-happy track meet, I think the Eagles will want to get the run game working more, whether or not Johnson plays.

Dolphins OL vs. Eagles pass rush

Miami checks in with our #4 Pass Grade of the week, which is a rarity against this Eagles rush. And of course, as noted above, the Dolphins’ OL could be shorthanded with LT Terron Armstead already on IR and C Connor Williams questionable with a groin injury. Miami’s offensive line — and scheme — are the exclusive reasons they check in so high on our Pass Grades, because Philly’s defense has generated a strong 6.08% QBPROE over the last five weeks. But Miami’s -8.45% QBPROE offensively is nearly tied with Green Bay (-8.47%) for best in the NFL over the same span. Among QBs with 50 or more dropbacks, Tua Tagovailoa has been pressured on just 20.7% of them, the lowest rate in the NFL, owing in large part to his 2.23-second average time to throw, 2nd-quickest in the NFL (to Trevor Lawrence). Why is that so important? Because Tua averages a 7th-best 75.8% completion rate and an NFL-best 10.01 YPA when not pressured, compared to just a 48.6% completion rate when pressured. Most importantly, his turnover-worthy throw percentage rises from 3.1% when not pressured (middle of the pack) to a 4th-highest 8.6% when pressured. The key to beating Miami’s world-class offense is simple — pressure the quarterback. But Mike McDaniel has made that about as difficult to do as possible, so the Eagles need to cash in on their opportunities when they get them.

San Francisco at Minnesota (Mon, 8:15 PM)

Vikings OL vs. 49ers DL in the run game

Yeah, I’ll admit I was surprised to see the Vikings checking in with our #5 Rush Grade of the week. But over the last five weeks, they’ve produced 2.08 aYBC/A on the ground, which is 6th-most in the NFL. And that’s especially notable since the Vikings don’t have a mobile QB — of the teams ahead of them in that department, the Eagles, Bears, Cardinals, and Ravens all have dual-threat QBs, and the Dolphins are, well, the Dolphins. And the 49ers, defensively, are coming off their worst run performance of the season, giving up season-highs in rushing yards (159), yards per carry (4.82), and YBC/A (2.06) to a Browns team that, quite frankly, was not much threat to pass with PJ Walker at QB. And for Minnesota, the backfield appeared headed toward a two-man attack since Cam Akers joined the mix in Week 4, but HC Kevin O’Connell used Alexander Mattison as a bell-cow back in their first game without Justin Jefferson. Mattison finished with an ugly 18/44 rushing but added 4/28 receiving on 7 targets (22.6%) and a 79% snap share in Minnesota’s victory over the Bears. Akers posted a 30% snap share and 24% carry share in his first two weeks with the Vikings, which dropped to 16% and 5%, respectively, in Week 6. Jefferson’s absence is going to result in fewer scoring opportunities for Mattison and the Vikings, but it could also result in more touches for Mattison, with the Vikings turning more into a ball-control attack. Mattison is still averaging just 3.9 YPC without a rushing TD, but you can feel a little better about him after Akers’ role decreased in his third game.