2023 Week 16 Fantasy Mismatch Report

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years and launched in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I’ve identified the biggest mismatches in all of this week’s games in an effort to make your fantasy and wagering decisions easier.

First, a note on some of the tools I’m using here.

All offensive/defensive line data is from the last five weeks, unless otherwise noted, in an attempt to reduce noise.

Rush Grade

Our “RUSH GRADE” offensive line stat is based simply on a formula measuring an offense’s average yardage before contact allowed on running plays — not including out-of-structure scrambles, trick plays, QB kneels, or QB sneaks. We call this statistic “adjusted yards before contact per attempt” (aYBC/A), and the Rush Grade applies to both an offense’s aYBC/A created and a defense’s aYBC/A allowed.

The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.

Pass Grade

Our “PASS GRADE” is a formula developed using “QB Pressure Rate Over Expectation.” It measures how much a quarterback should be expected to face pressure, adjusted for the quarterback’s average time to throw (a quarterback with a 3.0-second aT2T should be expected to be pressured more than one with a 2.0-second aT2T, for instance).

The higher the QBPROE number, the worse it is for an offense, and the better it is for a defense.

The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

All times Eastern

New Orleans at LA Rams (Thu, 8:15 PM)

Rams OL vs. Saints DL in the run game

You can maybe count on one finger — Christian McCaffrey — the fantasy football players you’d want in your lineup more in the semifinals than Kyren Williams right now, with Kyren totaling a ridiculous 111 opportunities in the last four weeks since his return from injury. And now, with the Rams home favorites on Thursday Night Football, he gets to play in our #1 Rush Grade of the week. The Rams’ line has done a good job opening up yards for him, while the Saints had given up over 100 non-scramble rushing yards in three straight games before shutting down the Giants’ anemic offense in Week 15. You don’t need me to tell you Kyren is a slam-dunk RB1 on usage alone, but I can confirm that it’s also a glorious matchup by the trench metrics.

Saints OL vs. Rams pass rush

The Saints check in with our #2 Pass Grade of the week, but that’s mostly on the strength of their -17.04% QBPROE allowed last week against the anemic Giants pass rush, their lowest such rate of the year. In their previous two weeks against the Lions and Panthers, they allowed their two worst games by QBPROE allowed. The Rams’ pass rush has been about average all year, but over the last five weeks, opposing QBs are averaging a 5th-most +8.0 schedule-adjusted FPG against them. If that tickles your pickle regarding starting Derek Carr in a semifinal matchup with Chris Olave back, by all means use him. I’ll instead focus on the decade of fantasy mediocrity Carr has delivered.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (Sat, 4:30 PM)

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter, Jr. vs. Bengals WR Tee Higgins

From Weeks 9-13, Porter followed four different receivers on 75% or more of their routes — DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Ja’Marr Chase, and Marquise Brown. He held those four receivers to a combined 87 yards on 7 catches in his primary coverage. As you might imagine, Higgins hasn’t caught a true shadow all year, because Ja’Marr Chase has been there to absorb them. But with Chase (shoulder) out this week, I’m anticipating Porter will follow Higgins. This has been a cruel fantasy season for many players, but few got bit harder by the injury bug than Higgins — he’s appeared in 10 scattered games this year. After he looked awesome shredding the Ravens for 8/89/2 receiving in Week 2 – it seemed like Higgins was back on the right track. That was until two separate injuries (rib fractures, hamstring strain) hampered him basically all season. He averaged just 3.4 receptions and 49.6 yards per game in seven appearances from Weeks 3-14. Well, at long last, Higgins finally looked like himself again with a strong 4/62/2 receiving (on 8 targets) vs. the Vikings on Saturday. Higgins’ game-tying TD was an unbelievable play, like Michael Jordan at the end of Space Jam. Porter’s coverage is indeed restrictive — the Steelers allow -4.0 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs over the last five weeks, 7th-fewest in the NFL. But I expect Higgins to get peppered with targets, making him still a strong WR2 in a must-win game for the Bengals.

Buffalo at LA Chargers (Sat, 8 PM)

Chargers pass rush vs. Bills OL

The Bills check in with our 4th-worst Pass Grade of the week, mostly because their QBPROE allowed the last two weeks against the Chiefs and Cowboys were their two worst games of the year. But let’s be honest — this is a Charger team that just gave up 63 points to Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders. I don’t pick and choose what I write up here… I lay out my criteria, and try to dig into the numbers. Sometimes, it’s enlightening. Other times, I’ll just completely ignore it. You’re starting your key Bills, even accounting for the Chargers’ potential “new coach bump.” Full stop.

Indianapolis at Atlanta (Sun, 1 PM)

SHADOW ALERT! Falcons CB AJ Terrell vs. Colts WR Michael Pittman

Pittman suffered a concussion — his second documented in the NFL — on a brutal hit that got Steelers S Damontae Kazee suspended for the rest of the regular season. But the injury occured on Saturday in Week 15, giving Pittman an extra day to clear the protocol, and he appears to be progressing positively through it. Should he play in Week 16, I fully expect Terrell to follow him. Terrell shadowed Mike Evans in Week 14 on 96.4% of his routes, and held the Buccaneers’ star catchless in his primary coverage. But he’s also ceded some big performances this year, allowing each of Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Evans (in Week 7) to score on him in his next three highest-route-share shadows of the season. If Pittman goes, he’s more of a WR2 in what should be one of the premier battles of the slate.

Green Bay at Carolina (Sun, 1 PM)

Packers pass rush vs. Panthers OL

Packers fans will not want me to say anything positive about their defense, and well, I don’t blame them — not after Baker Mayfield went for 380 and 4 on them. But because Carolina’s line is so awful and the Packers do at least generate pressure, the Panthers have our 3rd-worst Pass Grade of the week. But remember, just because a team is strong in QBPROE or basic pressure rate doesn’t mean they’re good — the Packers’ Week 14 game against the Giants was the only game this year from any team in which they generated a QBPROE of 20% or more and failed to register a sack. And last week, they got Baker down 5 times but couldn’t cover receivers when they didn’t. Despite that… who is starting Bryce Young in any format this week, even superflex? Not I. It’s far more likely Carolina’s offense makes Joe Barry’s defense look competent, and not the other way around.

Cleveland at Houston (Sun, 1 PM)

Texans DL vs. Browns OL in the run game

The Browns have, quite correctly, decided they can’t run the ball behind an offensive line that’s just been decimated by injuries. Jerome Ford has cleared 10 carries just once in his last four games, while Joe Flacco has dropped back about 50 times a game in his three starts. Fortunately, Flacco still targets Ford semi-regularly — he has 12 catches on 14 targets in Flacco’s three starts (and was also targeted in the Dorian Thompson-Robinson package). But with Ford losing carries and still ceding red-zone work to Kareem Hunt, he’s more of a low-end RB2/flex option going forward. And that sure as hell includes this week against a fantastic Texan run defense that just held Derrick Henry to 9 yards on 16 carries. The Browns have our 2nd-worst Rush Grade of the week. I’m surprised it’s not our WORST.

Browns OL vs. Texans pass rush

The Browns check in with our #4 Pass Grade of the week, and given how bad their Rush Grade this week is, I fully expect this to be another pass-heavy game for Kevin Stefanski and Joe Flacco. But there are some caveats here — the Browns have been the best pass-protecting line over the last five weeks by QBPROE, but that includes just one game without RT Dawand Jones, who is out for the year (though their Week 15 game without him was their 2nd-best by QBPROE all season). On the flip side, the Texans could be without rookie edge rusher Will Anderson, who suffered a high ankle sprain against the Jets in Week 14 and missed last week. All in all, I think Flacco is a completely viable start this week, so long as you don’t get dinged too much for interceptions. I expect the Browns to lean on the passing game once again.

Detroit at Minnesota (Sun, 1 PM)

Lions OL vs. Vikings DL in the run game

You guys know me well enough that, at this stage of the NFL season, I don’t have to go too in depth about what’s obvious, right? No fantasy player who is still alive in the playoffs is sitting David Montgomery or, especially, Jahmyr Gibbs. They combined for 185 rushing yards last week against the Broncos, after being listed in this column as having a positive matchup. Minnesota isn’t as good a matchup on the ground — Detroit has our #5 Rush Grade, mostly on the strength of their blocking — but over the last five weeks, the Vikings do surrender +6.4 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs as receivers, 3rd-most in the NFL. That makes this a uniquely good matchup for Gibbs.

Lions OL vs. Vikings pass rush

It’s all systems go for the Lions’ offense in Week 15. While Jared Goff’s home/road splits are notoriously wide, his success this week could be more dependent on the fact that Minnesota still plays indoors. Goff has a QB rating of 108.5 indoors this year and 82.0 outside. The Lions also feature our #3 Pass Grade of the week, which suggests Goff will be upright for much of the day. His 8.91 ANY/A when not pressured is 5th among qualified QBs, while his 2.06 ANY/A when pressured is 31st. He is one of the more condition-sensitive QBs in football, but he should have great ones in this contest.

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Vikings slot CB Josh Metellus

Only one player — the Panthers’ Adam Theilen — has seen more targets and catches out of the slot than St. Brown’s 78 and 58 this year (and Thielen clears him by just 1 target and catch). Only CeeDee Lamb (727 yards) has more receiving yards from that alignment than ARSB (651). And over the last five weeks, only three teams have given up more production to slot receivers than the Vikings’ +10.6 schedule-adjusted FPG. This looks like another prime spot for ARSB to eat, as you look to advance to your fantasy championship games.

Washington at NY Jets (Sun, 1 PM)

Commanders DL vs. Jets OL in the run game

You guys know the routine by now. The Jets haven’t reached 60 non-scramble rushing yards since Week 5. And they just had their worst output of the season in that department in Week 15, with just 24 such yards against the Dolphins. Their run game has been abominable — the worst in the NFL by far this season. They’d have a bad Rush Grade against a team of 11 Adam Caplans. They check in with our 3rd-worst Rush Grade of the week in this matchup, and once again, Breece Hall is a receiving-dependent FLEX.

Jets secondary vs. Commanders WR Terry McLaurin

McLaurin had his first 100-yard game of the season in Week 15, but there’s a massive caveat. Of his 141 yards against the Rams, 93 came after Jacoby Brissett entered the game for the struggling Sam Howell. Barring a drastic change of mind, Howell will be back in the starting lineup Week 16 against New York. That’s one problem for McLaurin. The other problem? The Jets’ perimeter CBs, Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. Over the last five weeks, no defense has allowed fewer than the Jets’ -9.4 schedule-adjusted FPG to outside WRs. It’s a little better in the slot for Curtis Samuel (-1.3). I’m treating McLaurin as a WR4 this week and would bench him for a guy like Josh Palmer, for example.

Seattle at Tennessee (Sun, 1 PM)

Titans DL vs. Seahawks OL in the run game

The Titans’ run defense has had a bizarre season of streaks. From Weeks 1-4, it was absolutely elite, continuing its play from 2022. From Weeks 5-9, it struggled badly, giving up 100+ non-scramble rush yards in four straight games. From Weeks 10-13, it was back to crushing it, allowing under 3.0 YPC on such runs in each game. And then, they got their asses kicked in Weeks 14 and 15, allowing 121 non-scramble yards to the Dolphins and 141 to the Texans. It should be noted that both of those teams are zone-heavy run teams, and Seattle is too — running 62.5% of its scheme from zone, actually higher than both Miami and Houston. So while Kenneth Walker has our 5th-worst Rush Grade of the week and he’s a guy who can completely strike out with negative runs (a problem against this Tennessee team), the schematic matchup suggests Tennessee might struggle with Seattle’s run game. That makes Walker a scary but defensible RB1 despite the trench numbers.

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay (Sun, 4:05 PM)

Buccaneers OL vs. Jaguars DL in the run game

One of the best value picks in all of fantasy football, Rachaad White has been scorching hot for fantasy players heading into the playoffs — he’s ripped off four straight games with 100+ yards from scrimmage, and three consecutive with a touchdown. Part of the reason for White’s success has been the quiet improvement of Tampa’s offensive line. Over the last five weeks, Tampa is opening 2.14 aYBC/A, 10th-most on this slate. From Weeks 1-10, they were last in the league at 0.69. Meanwhile, Jacksonville just gave up a season-high 221 non-scramble rush yards to Baltimore, which is skewing their numbers a bit — obviously, Lamar Jackson contributes plenty on designed runs. Nonetheless, the Jags have surrendered over 100 non-scramble rush yards twice in their last three games, after doing so just once in their first 11. Tampa Bay checks in with our #2 Rush Grade of the week, which is a far cry from where they would have been a few weeks ago.

Arizona at Chicago (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Bears OL vs. Cardinals DL in the run game

I’m sure those of you who played D’Onta Foreman last week and got eliminated with his -6 yards rushing will be thrilled to hear that the Bears have our #3 Rush Grade of the week against a Cardinals defense that has allowed seven of its last eight opponents to top 100 non-scramble rushing yards, and has allowed 2.86 aYBC/A over the last five weeks, most on the slate. The Bears are -4.5 favorites, and on the year, Foreman has averaged 73.0 rush YPG and 4.6 YPC in wins, against 34.3 YPG and 3.4 YPC in losses. But after he took a crap in Week 15 against the Browns, will the Bears — who might be down OL Teven Jenkins (concussion) — choose to rotate in Roschon Johnson or Khalil Herbert more? Foreman is a risky RB2, but you can make a pretty salient argument in his favor.

Cardinals OL vs. Bears pass rush

I’m pretty surprised to see Arizona check in with our #1 Pass Grade of the week, because I don’t think anyone views Arizona’s offensive line as particularly good. But Kyler Murray has now played in five games. In those five games, Arizona has all of its four lowest weeks by QBPROE allowed, including its lowest of the season last week against the 49ers, believe it or not. And while Montez Sweat has improved Chicago’s pass rush (he already leads them in sacks), Chicago just had a game with -8.12% QBPROE against Joe Flacco. Opposing QBs are not converting that all into fantasy production — over the last five weeks, QBs are averaging a 4th-fewest -3.9 schedule-adjusted FPG against the Bears. But Kyler is posting an ANY/A of 6.18 when kept clean to just 1.14 when pressured (neither metric is particularly good, mind you), so if you’re starting him as a low-end QB1, you certainly want him upright more often than not.

Bears OL vs. Cardinals pass rush

Here’s a fun tidbit from Scott Barrett in this week’s Everything Report: “Against top-10 defenses (as measured by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing QBs), Justin Fields averages an obscene 28.7 DK FPG! Across his other 5 fully healthy games, he averages just 12.5 DK FPG. Good news this week – Fields faces an Arizona defense that ranks 5th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to QBs (+3.1), and 3rd-worst over the last 5 weeks (+8.8).” Let me take it a bit further. Fields’ ANY/A of 7.98 when not pressured this year is 12th among QBs… right behind Justin Herbert. His 0.95 ANY/A when pressured is 40th… right ahead of Zach Wilson. So it’s a good thing the Bears check in with our #5 Pass Grade of the week, against the league’s worst pass rush by QBPROE over the last five weeks. He’s a slam-dunk QB1 this week.

Dallas at Miami (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Dolphins DL vs. Cowboys OL in the run game

If the Dolphins are going to make a run to the Super Bowl in a wide-open AFC, their improved defense complementing their elite offense will be the reason. Miami’s D is especially lockdown on the ground, where they’ve surrendered a 2nd-fewest 0.61 aYBC/A over the last five weeks (only the Patriots have allowed fewer). Miami has also held four of its last five opponents below 60 non-scramble rush yards, marking four of their five best performances of the year in that department — though it helps they played the Jets twice (27 and 24 non-scramble rushing yards in those two games). Nonetheless, they also shut down Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs in that span (with the exception of two short Henry TDs), and with our 4th-worst Rush Grade of the week, Tony Pollard will probably struggle to find room, especially if star G Zack Martin (quad) can’t play.

New England at Denver (Sun, 8:15 PM)

Patriots DL vs. Broncos OL in the run game

The Patriots stink, but their run defense isn’t the culprit — four of their five best games in terms of non-scramble rush yards allowed have come in the last four weeks, a span over which they’re allowing just 0.30 YBC per run… less than half the 2nd-best defense in the NFL (Miami, 0.61). On the season, Javonte Williams might be the most empty-calorie RB in all of fantasy — he’s averaging just 3.7 YPC and has scored a grand total of 1 TD on 182 carries. And while the Broncos are favored at home, which should allow him to pile up the carries, the matchup suggests he won’t go very far with those carries, making him a low-end RB2. Denver has our worst Rush Grade of the week.

Las Vegas at Kansas City (Mon, 1 PM)

Chiefs pass rush vs. Raiders OL

The Raiders feature our 5th-worst Pass Grade of the week, but Aidan O’Connell actually played pretty well against Kansas City the last time these two teams played back in Week 12, going 23/33 for 248 yards and a score, while being sacked just once. The Chiefs’ QBPROE of 3.13% in that game was their worst in the last five weeks, as well. It’s not like I’m streaming O’Connell in my fantasy playoffs, because it’s a lot harder to play in Arrowhead than in Vegas, but he did a decent job in this difficult matchup the last time around. I wouldn’t be stunned if he struggles more this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed vs. Raiders WR Davante Adams

These two faced off back in Week 12 — Sneed matched up on Adams on 83.8% of his routes, which is the most he’s faced any individual receiver this season, and he also gave up the most catches (5) and yards (73) to any receiver he’s seen this year, as well. Sneed’s becoming one of the more respected corners in the league and is someone DC Steve Spagnuolo is trusting implicitly. But as we saw earlier this year, it’s not a reason to bench Adams, who still carries WR1 upside. Maybe we shy away from him in DFS, but the wily vet can still get the best of Sneed.

Chiefs WR Rashee Rice vs. Raiders perimeter CBs

Rice opened the year as the Chiefs’ slot receiver — when he was on the field at all. But as Kansas City woke up and realized he’s their best wide receiver in general, his usage on the perimeter has increased. He’s been over a 50% wide route share in each of the past four weeks, and his season-high of 66.7% came against these Raiders in Week 12. That’s important for a few reasons. First of all, Rice had a season-high 107 receiving yards in that game, to go with 8 catches and a score. And running outside routes is the best way to attack the Raiders — over the last five weeks, the Raiders surrender +15.1 schedule-adjusted FPG to outside WRs, 2nd-most in the NFL over that span. Now, a lot of that is unconventional — Rice’s aDOT is incredibly low, and over a third of his targets in recent weeks are designed, short-area targets. But it’s working! I think Rice is a locked-in WR2 this week with legit WR1 upside. He should be on zero benches.

NY Giants at Philadelphia (Mon, 4:30 PM)

Giants OL vs. Eagles DL in the run game

The Eagles’ defense has collapsed, and whether it’s bad scheme, bad linebackers, or just some really tired defensive linemen after the hardest schedule run in the NFL this year, they have gone from one of the best run-stopping units in the league to a poor one. The Eagles have given up 100 non-scramble rushing yards in five games this year. And — would you know it! — those five games have been in each of the last five weeks. The Eagles are still a big favorite this week, but with walking meme Tommy DeVito at QB, the Giants will look to get their run game and Saquon Barkley back on track after a poor Week 15 against the Saints. The Giants have our #4 Rush Grade of the week, and Saquon is on the RB1 radar. Keep in mind the Eagles’ offense also is sputtering, which could keep this game more competitive than you might think.

Eagles pass rush vs. Giants OL

We still have the Eagles as having generated a positive QBPROE over the last five weeks, but it’s no secret that their expensive pass rush hasn’t gotten home nearly enough, especially in high-leverage situations. But it’s mostly the Giants’ banged-up offensive line driving our 2nd-worst Pass Grade of the week. The Giants haven’t had a game below 15% QBPROE allowed since Week 3, and they haven’t had a negative QBPROE allowed all season. So while the Eagles might not sack Tommy DeVito (and he might have success scrambling on them, like some QBs have), they will probably generate pressure.

Baltimore at San Francisco (Mon, 8:15 PM)

49ers pass rush vs. Ravens OL

The Ravens have our worst Pass Grade of the week, and it’s largely because their offensive line has fallen on hard times of late. LT Ronnie Stanley (concussion) is banged up again, and over the last five weeks, only the Giants’ constantly injured line has allowed a higher QBPROE than the Ravens (14.33%). In fact, the Ravens are coming off a game against the Jaguars in which they allowed their highest QBPROE of the year… and in the last five weeks, three of their four worst such games have occurred. Meanwhile, three of the 49ers’ four best games in terms of QBPROE generated have come in the same span. Fortunately, Lamar Jackson isn’t one of the most pressure-sensitive QBs in the league — he’s 14th in ANY/A when kept clean, but 12th when under pressure, so he keeps his cool in the face of the rush. He’s a downgrade on what he typically is, but he’s still a QB1.