Scott Barrett's Week 13 DFS Breakdown

What is this column? Each week I’ll be listing the best and most interesting plays of the week, grouped by position, and ranked (within varying classifications) in some sort of descending order. Keep in mind that we’re focusing only on the players available on the Main Slate. And our focus is mainly on DraftKings, although I have my FanDuel cash core listed at the top. (Assume I’m talking about DraftKings with all references to salary and projected ownership.)

Be sure to also watch our DFS Preview livestream (Cashing Points) every Friday at 7 PM EST. Be sure to get in our Discord — if you’re not in there already, you’re missing out on a lot of important news updates as well as personal guidance and advice from our experts.

Anyway, let’s dive in…

Note: Today’s article was broken into three sections: 1) Cash Plays, 2) GPP Plays (>5.5% Projected Ownership), and 3) GPP Plays (<5.5% Projected Ownership). Just because a player was written up in “Cash Plays” does not mean I dislike them for tournaments. Just because a player is drawing >5.5% projected ownership, does not mean I like them more than some of the players drawing <5.5% projected ownership.

TLDR — Cash Core

DraftKings

QB: Brock Purdy

RB: Zack Moss, Christian McCaffrey, Rachaad White, Rhamondre Stevenson

WR: Tyreek Hill, Michael Pittman, Diontae Johnson, Josh Downs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

TE: Brevin Jordan, Juwan Johnson

FanDuel

QB: Tua Tagovailoa, C.J. Stroud

RB: Zack Moss, Christian McCaffrey, Rachaad White, Javonte Williams

WR: Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Tank Dell, Nico Collins

TE: Juwan Johnson, Brevin Jordan, David Njoku

Be sure to check Discord on Sunday morning, as late-week injury news can impact a number of these recommendations. Also, (attention: MME players) feel free to hit me up on Discord to get the list of players I wrote up but cut out before final publish.

Top Plays (Cash)

Quarterbacks

1. Brock Purdy ($6,100 DraftKings salary) [16% projected ownership] – Purdy remains a screaming value for seemingly the 13th straight week in a row. He averages 331.3 passing YPG and 25.9 DraftKings FPG against top-7 pass funnels – both slate-leading marks if over the full season. By PROE allowed, the Eagles are the No. 1 pass funnel in the NFL (+7.6%), and Philadelphia is the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+4.9 FPG)… I’d prefer if this game were played at home, but it’s an otherwise perfect spot for Purdy.

Running Backs

1. Zack Moss ($4,600) [56%!!] – In his first four games of the season, without Jonathan Taylor, Moss averaged 22.3 carries, 2.5 targets, and 22.2 FPG (~RB2) on an 83% snap share (~RB1). After starting out the season tough against the run, Tennessee has given up the 7th-most rushing YPG to opposing RBs since Week 5 (134.1), which includes 23-165-2 to Moss in Week 5… He’s an obvious must-play in cash. In large-field tournaments, it makes sense to fade players as highly owned as Moss projects to be, but the “ultra-cheap bell cow RB” is also the most dangerous type of chalk to fade. Just know that on the lineups where you don’t have Moss, you should be smart about it you’re fading him. Personally, I’d recommend a Derrick Henry plus Michael Pittman mini-stack as leverage.

2. Christian McCaffrey ($9,000) [20%] – McCaffrey has exceeded 20.0 DK fantasy points in 9 games this year – 4 more than anyone else. A bad game for him is anything less than that (which has happened just 18% of the time). A good game from McCaffrey is something along the lines of what we saw from him in Week 4 (51.7 DK fantasy points); the definition of a “had-to-have-it score” in DFS, where it may have been impossible to profit without him on your roster. Among all RBs to play in at least 8 games this year, McCaffrey’s 26.1 DK FPG is +31% more than the next-closest RB (Alvin Kamara), who is only 10% cheaper on DraftKings this week… In short, I’m unsure why McCaffrey isn’t at least 33% owned in DFS tournaments every week. And he’s an obvious must-play in cash.

3. Rachaad White ($6,300) [26%] – White has finished as a top-13 RB by DK fantasy points scored in 6 straight games – although, to be fully transparent, he’s finished top-9 only once (Week 9, when he led the position in fantasy points)… Over this span, he ranks as the RB4 by FPG (19.4) and the RB5 by XFP/G (17.5). Even last week, in a game in which he was listed as questionable, he still led the position in snap share (89.3%)… He’s a strong value this week, in a top-5 matchup against Carolina’s run funnel defense. However, you can certainly quibble with White’s upside for tournaments if you wanted.

4. Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000) [23%] – Okay. For the first time all season, I am finally not begrudgingly writing up Stevenson. I actually think he’s a good play this week, in a top-6 matchup against the Chargers… Last week, following the team’s bye, Stevenson hit a season-high in snap share (78%), carries (21), and XFP (19.0). He also earned 5 targets, marking the 5th time in 6 weeks he’s seen at least that many targets. Over this span, he ranks 4th-best in target share (16.2%), behind only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Jahmyr Gibbs… This is more or less the sort of usage Stevenson earned last year with Damien Harris banged up, and is more or less the sort of usage you were hoping for when you spent an early draft pick on him. Assuming this usage sticks (which is still a very big “if”), I wouldn’t view Stevenson too dissimilarly to Rachaad White – basically high-end RB2 production on low-end RB1 volume, rather than the low-end RB2 production on high-end RB2 volume we’ve seen from Stevenson thus far. UPDATE: Ezekiel Elliott is listed as questionable with a thigh injury, after practicing in only a limited capacity all week.

Wide Receivers

1. Tyreek Hill ($9,600) [24%] – Tyreek Hill’s 1,324 receiving yards is the most of any WR through the first 12 weeks of a season since the NFL merger in 1970. His 25.5 FPG would rank 7th-most by any WR in any season all-time. His 4.24 YPRR is a number I once thought was impossible to reach… By just about any measure, this matchup couldn’t be any better. Washington is getting destroyed by WRs, Tua Tagovailoa is going to have all day to throw, Hill destroys man coverage, and the Commanders are giving up a league-high 15.6 FPG to opposing receivers on deep passes (+24% more than the next-closest defense)… He’s an obvious must-play for cash. For tournaments, I’ve spent all week debating whether to have 100% exposure, or “only” 60% with heavy exposure to Miami’s RBs + DST as leverage on non-Hill lineups.

2. Josh Downs ($5,100) [12%] – Downs has played in 5 healthy games in which Gardner Minshew started. In those games, he averages 9.2 targets (~WR13), 16.1 XFP (~WR14), and 14.8 FPG (~WR16). And yet he’s only priced as the WR24, making him a screaming value… The matchup is more favorable for Pittman – Tennessee is something of a reverse slot-funnel with CB Sean Murphy-Bunting fully healthy (keeping Roger McReary in the slot, instead of Eric Garror) – which might be the only hole you can poke in Downs for tournaments.

3. Michael Pittman ($7,100) [20%] – In the 7 games Gardner Minshew started, Pittman averages 10.3 targets per game (~WR4) and 17.5 FPG (~WR8). And yet he’s only priced as the WR11 on this week’s slate, up against a Titans defense that ranks 5th-worst in FPG allowed to opposing WR1s (19.7). A Titans defense that allows the 2nd-highest pass rate to opposing offenses first reads (72%). And a Titans defense which, seemingly for the 5th straight season, ranks bottom-3 in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs (+6.5).

4. Diontae Johnson ($5,000) [15%] – Johnson has seen at least 8 targets in 4 of his last 5 games, earning a 27.4% target share over this span (7th-most). Last week he finished with just 9.0 fantasy points but would have scored 17.5 fantasy points if HC Mike Tomlin had challenged this one bad call by the refs… He’s a clear top value, priced as just the WR25 on this week’s slate, up against a Cardinals defense that is giving up the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+5.3).

5. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,500) [13%] – It’s weird that we don’t view St. Brown as essentially equivalent to 96% of Justin Jefferson at (typically) 88% of the DFS salary… St. Brown averages 10.3 targets and 21.9 DK FPG over his last 30 games in which he’s played on at least one-third of the team’s snaps. Jefferson, meanwhile, averages 10.7 targets and 22.8 DK FPG over his last 26 games (min. >33% snap share)… And St. Brown might be playing his best football yet. He’s fallen short of 18.0 DK fantasy points only once this year, and it was a game in which he scored 13.8 in the first half (on pace for 27.6) prior to injury. He gets a strong matchup against the Saints’ slot funnel defense which ranks 8th-worst against slot WRs (+1.7) but 4th-best against outside WRs (-6.0).

Tight Ends

1. Brevin Jordan ($2,500) [8%] – Per sources, C.J. Stroud likes Jordan, who will be playing “a ton” this week, and the team hates Teagan Quitoriano’s guts. So – even if he sucks – he will at least be stepping into a role that led Dalton Schultz to 12.9 FPG since Week 4 (~TE5). Tank Dell and Noah Brown are both badly banged up, and Patrick Surtain could neutralize either Dell or Nico Collins… Denver has toughened up in recent weeks, but they’ve still given up the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs across the full season (+3.6).

2. Juwan Johnson ($3,400) [21%] – Michael Thomas is on IR, while Rashid Shaheed (quad) and Chris Olave (concussion) both look pretty questionable, meaning there is a real chance Johnson is the team’s most capable pass catcher on Sunday. Last week, in the midst of a flurry of WR injuries, Johnson earned team-high and season-highs in route share (85%, up from 65%) and target share (18.4%, up from 10.9%)… In a neutral on-paper matchup, Johnson is no doubt one of the better salary-savers on the slate. NOTES: It’s close to a toss-up if Olave sits out. If he plays, I definitely prefer Brevin Jordan.

GPP Plays (>5.5% Projected Ownership)

Quarterbacks

1. Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900) [9%] – Tagovailoa hasn’t done much recently against a trio of bottom-12 schedule-adjusted matchups, but before that, he threw for 3 or more touchdowns in 4 of 8 games. The Commanders have been the league’s top pass funnel over the last five weeks (+10.1% PROE allowed), and are (by far) the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing passers this year (+7.6 FPG). Targeting QBs against Washington has been a staple for winning DFS players all year, and that won’t change in Week 13. NOTES: This is one of the rare occasions where full-on onslaught stacks are not only viable, but seem pretty damn close to optimal.

2. Sam Howell ($6,200) [7%] – Howell has scored over 20.5 DraftKings points in five straight games and has the 4th-most games of 20 or more DraftKings points (7) of any slate-eligible QB. The floor is obviously there, but the ceiling could be too in this matchup. This game offers the highest over/under of the slate (50.0), and the Dolphins rank as a top-8 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing passers (+1.4 FPG). Howell has a clear path to 50-plus dropbacks, and if he can connect with his pass catchers as he did against Philadelphia (35.0 DraftKings points), then he could finish as the QB1 on this slate. NOTES: When I’m playing Howell, I’ll be stacking him with a number of Miami players and at most one Washington receiver.

3. Jalen Hurts ($8,200) [7%] – Hurts averages 25.6 DK FPG, which is +2.9 DK FPG more than the QB2 of the slate, and +3.8 more than the QB3, although he’s only $100-200 more expensive. In games in which opponents score more than 20 points, his FPG average jumps to 29.4 DK. It’s a bottom-5 on-paper matchup for Hurts, but Hurts seems fairly matchup-proof, plus, the 49ers are a clear pass funnel, and this game offers the 2nd-highest over/under of the slate.

*tier break*

4. Russell Wilson ($5,700) [13%] – Mr. Unlimited draws a Houston secondary that’s ranked as the 5th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing passers (+3.6 FPG) since Week 7. As 3.5-point underdogs, he should be forced to throw. And believe it or not, he’s the NFL’s most accurate passer since Week 9 (62% accurate throw rate) – so the potential for a big game here should be intuituve. He’s already a slight value, but feels about $1,000 cheaper when we factor in how inexpensive his stacking partners all are – Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy both project as two of the top technical values of the slate… That said, Wilson has scored over 23.0 DraftKings points once this season. He has averaged just 169 passing YPG since Week 5. And he’s probably not anywhere near as strong of a play as ownership projects.

Running Backs

1. Kyren Williams ($7,200) [6%] – In 7 games this season, Kyren Williams has played on 80.3% of the team’s snaps (2nd-most), averaging 16.1 carries, 4.1 targets, 17.4 XFP/G (5th-most), 7.3 red zone XFP/G (2nd-most), and 21.4 FPG (2nd-most)… So, yeah, why aren’t we viewing him as 95% Todd Gurley but at 75% of the salary? Since Week 7, the Browns rank bottom-7 in both YPC allowed (4.61) and rushing FPG allowed to opposing RBs (21.8).

2. De’Von Achane ($6,900) [6%] – Achane is not only expected to return this week but also – crucially – to return to 100% full health. (The entire DFS community is whiffing on this; Achane practiced all last week and could have played if HC Mike McDaniel really wanted him to.)… In only three full games, Achane averages an insane 154.3 YFS, 2.3 touchdowns, and 32.1 FPG on just 12.3 carries, 3.3 targets, and 51.4% of the team’s snaps. So all he needs to do to break this week’s slate is to continue doing that. Yes, he’s technically one of the biggest negative regression candidates I’ve seen in years (+11.7), but he also might just be Chris Johnson reincarnated (CJ2K2.0). And you want to be leaning into that sort of upside in DFS tournaments. Especially at Achane’s projected ownership which might be laughably bad if it weren’t so insulting… Everyone wants to jam in Hill this week, but Achane is direct leverage against Hill and also a tremendous play in his own right, with similar slate-wrecking potential but at much lower ownership. Yes, Hill has an insane matchup this week, but so does Achane. Over their last 5 games, the Commanders have given up 22.9 fantasy points to Rhamondre Stevenson (season-high), 29.9 to the Seahawks (2nd-most), 30.0 to Saquon Barkley (season-high), and 31.9 to the Cowboys (season-high).

*tier break*

3. Bijan Robinson ($6,700) [6%] + Falcons DST ($3,400) [26%] – The only thing that’s changed about Robinson’s role in recent weeks is just that he’s now a lot more involved in the red zone. Still, that’s a significant role change – enough to push him up from RB12 in XFP/G to RB7. And now remember that Robinson is a lot more talented than your average RB, so we should definitely be expecting him to out-score his XFP most weeks. And perhaps especially this week, favored by 2.0 points against the Jets’ run funnel defense, which ranks 4th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+3.7).

4. Jaylen Warren ($5,400) [15%] vs. Najee Harris ($5,200) [5%] + Steelers DST ($3,800) [3%] – Since their Week 6 bye, Pittsburgh’s backfield ranks 4th in FPG (27.3). This is a gross 50/50 committee backfield, with Harris getting the slight edge by volume – he’s beaten Warren in XFP in 5 of their 6 games. But with Warren getting the larger edge in terms of talent / ability, and recent production / spike-week upside… Harris has cleared 15.5 DK fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games, but with a high of just 18.6, Warren averages 17.8 DK FPG over his last 4 games, despite last week’s (potentially fumble-related) dud (8.2 fantasy points). Both RBs qualify as values this week, in a great matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks 2nd-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (both across the full season and over the last 5 weeks)… I definitely give the edge to Warren due to talent and upside. But at ownership, it’s probably close to a toss-up.

*big tier drop*

5. Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,700) [14%] – Gibbs underwhelmed in Week 12, but I still came away highly encouraged by his usage. His 69% snap share was the highest it’s been in any game with David Montgomery, and his 76% route share was the 10th-best mark of any RB in any game this season. Over his last three games – all with David Montgomery – Gibbs is averaging 11.0 carries, 6.3 targets, and 19.5 XFP/G (5th-most) on a 62% snap share (61% inside the 10 yard-line)… Gibbs was definitely already mispriced based on his role, but he could be in line for more work this week, as Montgomery has recently picked up a foot injury. And this week’s matchup is great – the Lions have the 2nd-highest implied point total of the slate (25.75) and the Saints have given up the most schedule-adjusted rushing FPG to opposing RBs over the last 5 weeks (+4.5). UPDATE: Montgomery is going to be fine; he’s no longer on the injury report.

6. Alvin Kamara ($8,200) [10%] – Kamara easily has one of the highest floors in fantasy. He averages 19.9 FPG (4th-most) with only one game under 15.9 fantasy points, despite finding the end zone in only 2 of 8 games this year. In a world where touchdowns are worth 0 fantasy points, Kamara leads the position with 17.7 FPG. And that would also be +27% more than the next-closest non-McCaffrey RB… He’s probably a little over-priced, but I think he’ll get slept on in tournaments. And I think he has decent odds at a spike week. Given all of the injuries to New Orleans’ WR corps, we should probably be boosting his target expectation which could be outlierishly high – he has two games with 14 targets. And there are probably decent odds he can score a touchdown, given how poorly Detroit has played of late.

7. Derrick Henry ($6,800) [9%] – If it wasn’t last week, this might be your last chance to play Henry in DFS. Henry is possibly the most gamescript-dependent fantasy player of all time. So, although it’s unideal that the Titans are underdogs in this contest, at least the spread is fairly close (+1.5) and probably closer than it’s going to be throughout the remainder of the season. The on-paper matchup is also excellent – the Colts are giving up the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted rushing FPG to opposing RBs (+4.4) over their last 5 games… But, ultimately, the primary reason I’m mentioning him is because he works so well as leverage on lineups that are intentionally fading Zack Moss.

8. Javonte Williams ($5,700) [13%] + Broncos DST ($2,700) [1%] – I’ve been talking about this in The Everything Report for weeks now, but… Basically, if Denver wins in a dominant fashion (which is fairly unlikely given the +3.5-point spread), then Williams probably hits. In any other scenario he probably flops… So, at least there’s some upside here. And he also works as leverage off of an inexplicably chalky Russell Wilson.

Wide Receivers

1. Nico Collins ($6,800) [8%] > Tank Dell ($7,400) [8%] – Since Week 9, one of the smartest things you could have done was make a rule that stipulated you at least one Texans WR on every single one of your lineups. Legitimately, that has been one of the best cheat codes in DFS in this year. And I’m pretty confident that cheat code is going to work again this week, with Dalton Schultz out and Noah Brown questionable… Since Week 9, Dell ranks 3rd in XFP/G (21.4) and 4th in FPG (23.7). He’s scored 20.5, 30.9, 18.9, and 15.4 fantasy points in these games, and might have had an additional 82 yards and 10.2 fantasy points last week if not for two questionable calls from the referees. (With this play being the more impactful one.) Since Week 9, Collins ranks 9th in XFP/G (17.2) and 14th in FPG (17.1). Across the full season, Collins ranks behind only Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, and A.J. Brown in YPRR (2.85)… If I had to pick a favorite here, I’d side with Collins. Per #sources, Dell is still seriously banged up with a calf injury. On paper, the matchup is brutal for whichever WR is shadowed by Patrick Surtain (it’s either Collins or Dell, but we don’t know who that’s going to be) and neutral at worst for the opposite Texans WR.

*tier drop*

2. Jaylen Waddle ($7,600) [7%] – Yes, Tyreek Hill is a vastly superior play to Waddle, but Waddle would technically work as leverage. And, more realistically, I think they can both hit for monster scores… Everyone wants to play Hill because this is the best possible matchup. But Waddle is also playing in that same best-possible matchup! And the schematic matchup actually suits Waddle better than Hill. The Commanders deploy two-high coverage at the 5th-highest rate in the league (55.6%). Hill is 2.1X as efficient as Waddle against single-high coverage (0.97 FPRR vs. 0.46) but only 1.4X as efficient against two-high coverage (0.84 FPRR vs. 0.61). Last week in a worst-possible on-paper matchup but a great schematic matchup (the Jets deployed two-high coverage at a top-5 rate), Waddle caught 8 of 8 targets for a team-high 114 yards (on only a 66% snap share)… Believe it or not, Waddle is seeing top-3 volume this year. (Or at least that’s true on a per-route basis to help account for some games where Waddle was plagued by injury.) This season Waddle ranks behind only Hill and Keenan Allen in XFP per route run… Oh and by the way – Hill is banged up with an ankle injury, missing practice on Wednesday and then practicing only a limited capacity throughout the remainder of the week.

3. Curtis Samuel ($4,100) [8%] – Who is the Washington Commanders’ WR1? Consider this… Across the 9 games Curtis Samuel played in full (excluding one game he was ejected and one game he left early due to injury), Samuel averaged a team-high 11.5 FPG. In these games, Terry McLaurin averages 11.4, Logan Thomas averages 8.8, and Jahan Dotson averages 6.3… I know this seems unsustainable, but – in his final season at North Carolina – Howell also targeted his slot WR Josh Downs on an obscene 41% of his throws… Samuel gets an excellent matchup this week – Miami ranks bottom-6 in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs, and bottom-3 over their last 5 weeks.

4. Adam Thielen ($6,600) [6%] – Thielen has struggled over his last 5 weeks, averaging just 10.0 FPG (WR49). Over the previous six weeks, Thielen ranked as fantasy football’s overall WR1, averaging 24.7 FPG… Because his usage hasn’t really suffered – 25.5% target share, down from 28.1% – I wanted to chalk this up to a particularly brutal strength of schedule; he’s faced the 13th-toughest, 7th-toughest, 9th-toughest, and 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs over this stretch. That said, last week was rough enough to have me seriously concerned. In a neutral on-paper matchup against the Titans, Thielen managed just 1.2 fantasy points on only 3 targets. So, there’s certainly some risk here, especially after the head coach was just fired and this team has fully imploded. But he gets a near-perfect matchup this week – the Buccaneers are giving up the most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs (+4.3), and they also rank 6th-worst in FPG allowed to opposing WR1s (18.6). (Theilen will spend most of his time in the slot against UDFA rookie Christian Izien.)… Thielen is a highly-enticing contrarian option this week, with underrated upside.

5. Elijah Moore ($3,500) [10%] – Joe Flacco played two games with the Jets in 2021. In the one game he started, Moore scored 32.6 DK fantasy points on 11 targets. In the other game, Flacco attempted only 3 passes. Moore was targeted on 2 of those throws, catching both for 40 yards and a score. In 2022, Moore saw 7, 5, 9, and 1 (meaningless Week 18 game) in Flacco’s starts… Moore has seen at least 7 targets in 8 of 11 games and averages 8.3 targets and 2.0 carries per game over the last three weeks. He gets a neutral at-worst matchup in the slot against the Rams.

*tier drop*

6. Keenan Allen ($9,000) [14%] – In his age 31 season, Allen currently leads all WRs in targets per game (11.6) and XFP/G (21.9), while ranking behind only Tyreek Hill in FPG (23.6). And apparently, his role appears to be improving – he’s eclipsed 100 receiving yards on 14 or more targets in 3 straight games… Obviously, injuries to Mike Williams and Josh Palmer — as well as the benching/gross ineptitude of rookie Quentin Johnston — have resulted in more volume. Initially, I was worried there might have been some trade-off here – that without viable pass-catchers, teams would start double-teaming Allen, and his production would decline. But that doesn’t appear to be the case. During last week’s game, Ravens HC John Harbaugh admitted to doing exactly this, and it didn’t seem to matter. Allen still walked away with 14 catches (!) and 106 receiving yards… On paper, the matchup is a little tricky. New England has been tough against slot WRs all year, but they’re getting shredding on the perimeter. Encouragingly, Allen’s slot rate has been trending down for a number of weeks now, down to a season-low 40% last week… Ultimately, Hill is a much better play on paper, but Allen is a great similarly-priced pivot, and I’d bet he goes lower-owned that our ownership projections suggest.

7. Terry McLaurin ($5,500) [17%] – The Commanders have seen 3 different WRs reach 95 receiving yards this season, and not one of these WRs is named Terry McLaurin. McLaurin really hasn’t done anything all year, so he does sort of feel like a trap. But, I suppose, he is still Washington’s WR1 (at least by XFP), this is an amazing game environment, and this is a strong on-paper matchup – Miami is giving up the 9th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+3.2).

*tier drop*

8. Courtland Sutton ($5,400) [13%] > Jerry Jeudy ($4,300) [11%] – Jeudy has done nothing all year – just two games with at least 11.5 DK fantasy points (season-high of 13.1). But he does get a Texans defense that has looked like a bit of a slot funnel since Week 6, in addition to an ideal schematic matchup… Sutton’s matchup is tougher, but not much worse than neutral. And although he, too, has yet to post a “had to have it” score, he has cleared 11.5 DK fantasy points in 8 of 11 games. And he has exceeded 18.0 fantasy points 3 times. He’s the better value for sure, but not really a player I’d be too worried about fading.

Tight Ends

1. David Njoku ($4,100) [15%] – Njoku has eclipsed a 20% target share in 6 straight games, averaging 8.8 targets (2nd-best) and 55.0 receiving YPG (7th-best) over this span. And now he gets a nearly best-possible matchup against the Rams TE funnel defense, which is giving up the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+2.9) but the 9th-fewest to opposing WRs.

2. George Kittle ($6,200) [6%] – Kittle is not quite a value, but he does offer unique upside for the position. Since Week 3, Kittle has scored: 16.0 > 1.9 > 27.7 > 1.1 > 13.0 > 26.9 > 23.6 > 22.9 > 4.9 DK fantasy points. Based on these figures, it appears as though Kittle has a 33% chance of destroying your roster, a 55% chance of falling short of value, and a 44% chance of (probably) putting up the highest score of any TE on this slate. In other words, he’s a great GPP play if his projected ownership is at all accurate… The Eagles are far more vulnerable to WRs than TEs, but this is still a top-12 matchup for Kittle.

3. Trey McBride ($4,900) [19%] – McBride is pretty banged up and gets a bottom-10 matchup after a string of top-3 matchups. But he’s still a bit underpriced. Across the full season, he ranks behind only Travis Kelce in TPRR and YPRR. Since Week 8, he ranks top-3 among all TEs and top-12 among all WRs in targets, XFP, and fantasy points scored. As I’ve argued for several weeks now, if he were a WR and not a TE, there would be little hesitation in calling him one of the best values of the slate.

*tier drop*

4. Logan Thomas ($3,600) [12%] – I don’t know how many weeks in a row it is now, but once again, Thomas is a top-10 XFP-related value on the slate. I question the upside, but it’s a top-7 matchup for Thomas, and he does feel about as safe as they come – he’s seen between 5 and 8 targets in 5 of his last 6 games.

GPP Plays (<5.5% Projected Ownership)

Quarterbacks

1. C.J. Stroud ($8,100) [5%] – Stroud is already having the 6th-best rookie fantasy QB season ever by FPG (20.2), and that’s despite Houston ranking bottom-12 in PROE (-0.9%) through the first 8 weeks of the season. The pass-heavy switch flipped for the Texans in Week 9, and they haven’t looked back since – Stroud has averaged an insane 29.0 DraftKings FPG (QB2) and 366.5 passing YPG (1st by 42.0 YPG) over his last four games. That said, the matchup with Denver is pretty tough; the Broncos rank as the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for QBs since Week 5.

2. Jared Goff ($6,500) [5%] – Goff is facing a New Orleans secondary (that just lost Marshon Lattimore to IR) in a dome, behind the 2nd-highest implied team total (25.75) on the slate. Plus, the Lions have the biggest pass-blocking advantage this week, per our OL/DL matchups tool. It might be easy for Goff to get lost in the shuffle with objectively better options at QB on this slate, but both Vegas and the matchup suggest a tournament-winning performance is well within his range of outcomes, and he’s drawing minimal interest in spite of it.

3. Gardner Minshew ($5,300) [5%] – Minshew (QB13 by DraftKings salary) averages 18.4 DraftKings FPG per career start, which sets him up as an objective value, as that mark would rank 9th-best among slate-eligible QBs this season. His matchup is pretty great – Tennessee has been the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for QBs through the air (+3.2 FPG) since Week 7. Beyond that, he’s incredibly easy to stack (Josh Downs and Michael Pittman are both cash-caliber plays for me this week) and – importantly – Minshew is pretty clearly the safest way to save salary at QB this week.

Running Backs

1. Raheem Mostert ($7,300) [2%] + Dolphins DST ($3,900) [8%] – Fantasy football’s RB2 is priced $1,100 less than this slate’s RB2. And no one wants to play him in a game Miami is favored by 9.5 points, behind a 29.5-point implied total (3.75 more than the next-closest)? He’s easily the best contrarian play of the slate, while also offering incredible leverage off of the chalkiest game of the slate.

*tier drop*

2. Devin Singletary ($5,900) [2%] – Singletary out-snapped Dameon Pierce 47 to 11 last week, although they nearly tied in carries (6 to 5). I’d guess that Singletary is merely Houston’s RB1 (much better in games with negative gamescript) rather than a true bell cow. So, there’s definitely some risk here, favored by 3.5 points. But he is a way to get unique on a lot of chalky players from this game, and this is a best-possible on-paper matchup against Denver (+7.6 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs).

Wide Receivers

1. Chris Olave ($6,900) [0%] – Last week, in just two full quarters of work, Olave caught 7 of 8 targets for 114 yards. Keep in mind, this all came against a Falcons defense that ranks 2nd-best in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs (-2.3). And this also came directly after Olave caught 6 of 9 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown in the second half of his last game. Add it together, and that’s 17 targets, 13 catches, 208 yards, and a touchdown (39.8 fantasy points) in just four full quarters of work. Prior to this point, Olave was averaging just 59.3 yards and 12.4 fantasy points per four quarters… Olave gets a great matchup – Detroit is giving up the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs over the last 5 weeks – and will have significantly reduced target competition with Thomas and Rashid Shaheed both out. He’s a legitimately great play if he suits up, and – as is often the case with players who get cleared to play very late in the week – he will likely go massively underowned as well.

2. Noah Brown ($4,500) [1%] – Dalton Schultz is out. Tank Dell is seriously banged up. One of Dell or Nico Collins is going to be shadowed by Patrick Surtain… Brown is priced as just the WR30 ($2,300 less than Collins) despite leading the team in receiving yards in each of his last 3 games. And not only that, but he cleared 150 receiving yards in each of his last 2 games, averaging an obscene 162.5 YPG… Brown is a really strong play. I’d love to go all-in this week, but I have a few concerns. 1) Brown’s big games have all come without either one of Robert Woods or Collins, so we can’t be too sure he’s going to get the same usage/volume this week. 2) He runs over half of his routes from the slot, and the Broncos rank best in the league in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to slot WRs over the last 5 weeks (-5.1), or 2nd-best over the full season (-3.9). 3) Per #sources, Brown is going to play this week, but he barely did anything in practice on Friday, which isn’t a really great sign.

3. Greg Dortch ($3,700) [1%] – Michael Wilson is out. Marquise Brown and Trey McBride are both very banged up. Zack Pascal returned last week (not at all impacting Dortch’s usage) but missed practice on Thursday… As I’ve maintained since he went undrafted in 2019, Dortch is #DamnGoodAtFootball. Over the last two seasons, Dortch averages 14.8 FPG across the 8 games he’s run a route on at least two-thirds of the team’s dropbacks. Rondale Moore, meanwhile, averages just 9.3 FPG across his 16 qualifying games. Last week, on exactly as many routes as Moore (37 routes, 75.5% route share) Dortch out-targeted Moore 9 to 3 and finished the week ranking 14th among all WRs in XFP (18.2)… Dortch has a top-12 matchup this week, while Brown draws Joey Porter’s tough shadow coverage, which should funnel more volume in Dortch’s direction.

*tier drop*

4. Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200) [7%] vs. Deebo Samuel ($6,200) [11%] – Aiyuk’s volume (but not his production) has taken a hit since Samuel returned – 4.3 targets per game but somehow 19.0 DK FPG. Over this span, Samuel edges both Aiyuk (9.0) and George Kittle (10.5) in XFP/G, although he’s been a little less productive than both in FPG (15.8)… Both get incredible matchups this week. The Eagles rank bottom-3 in both FPG allowed to opposing WR1s (21.1) and WR2s (13.2). And they’re giving up the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+6.3)… If I had to pick a favorite, it would definitely be Aiyuk. He’s simply the better player – he ranks 2nd among all WRs in YPRR (3.45) and gets the better end of this soft matchup. (The Eagles are especially vulnerable deep, and Aiyuk is averaging nearly twice as many deep targets per game as Samuel. The man-heavy schematic matchup also suits Aiyuk significantly more than it does Samuel. And Samuel is still very reliant on rushing production to hit value.)

5. DeVonta Smith ($7,300) [2%] vs. A.J. Brown ($8,800) [6%] – The on-paper matchup is strong for both WRs – the 49ers rank 10th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs (+2.6). So, if forced to choose, who do you play?.. On one hand, Brown is a baller with massive slate-breaking upside (immensely more slate-breaking upside than Smith), and it looks like he has an ideal schematic matchup this week… On the other hand, Smith has easily outplayed Brown in games Dallas Goedert has missed. Further, every other aspect of the matchup is popping for Smith. San Francisco ranks top-6 in pressure rate, average time to throw allowed, and completion percentage allowed on deep targets… So, although neither pops as an amazing play (outside of gamestacks), I do prefer Smith, who isn’t priced as high as he probably should be with Goedert still out (he’s doubtful this week).

6. Marquise Brown ($5,200) [4%] – Brown has had back-to-back-to-back brutal matchups, so his poor results over this span (7.3 FPG) haven’t been at all surprising to me. And in fact, I thought his numbers last week were highly encouraging – he caught 6 of 12 targets for 88 yards, and finished the week ranking 2nd(!) among all WRs in XFP (24.1). This all came against the Rams’ zone-heavy defense which ranks top-10 in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs (-3.3). The good news this week is Pittsburgh ranks bottom-12 by the same stat (+2.4). And that the Steelers play man coverage at the league’s 6th-highest rate (33.2%); Brown’s target share jumps from 21.3% against zone to 33.3% against man (3rd-best). But, unfortunately, it’s still not quite a perfect matchup. Joey Porter Jr. has been shadowing WR1s since Week 9, and he’s been excellent in that role. UPDATE: Obviously, it’s not a great sign Brown hasn’t practiced all week (heel), but he’s probably not any more hurt than he was last week when he missed practice on Thursday and Friday.

*tier drop*

7. Jalen Guyton ($3,300) [4%] – Guyton probably stinks, but he’s nearly minimum priced, is probably Justin Herbert’s No. 2 receiver (80% snap share and 5.5 targets per game over his last 2 games). Both Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston are badly banged up. And he does get an amazing matchup – New England is giving up a league-high +10.1 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs over the last 5 weeks.

Tight Ends

1. Pat Freiermuth ($4,300) [2%] – I know it feels dumb to chase points on the guy who just broke the slate, and especially now when he’s $1,400 more expensive. But he does ostensibly have the nuts schematic matchup this week – something that supposedly matters a great deal to Pittsburgh’s new OC.