Scott Barrett's 69 Stats

1A. Over the last three seasons, Kyler Murray ranks 3rd in FPG (22.2), behind only Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

1B. He’s currently being drafted as the QB26 on Yahoo!.

1C. Sure, there’s a good chance he misses a few games to start the year. But, remember, the final three weeks of the season (your fantasy playoffs) matter exponentially more than the first month of the season.

1D. Sure, there’s a good chance he’s not quite as prolific of a rusher this season, coming off ACL surgery. His median projection should probably account for something like a 25-35% dropoff in rushing production (still good enough for low-end QB1 numbers). But fantasy football is a game where bull-case projections matter far more than base-case or median projections. And to that point, we don’t always see a drop-off in rushing production.

1E. For instance, Deshaun Watson tore his ACL late into the 2017 season (November), but would then average a career-best 40.1 rushing YPG over his final 8 games in 2018. (He averaged just 29.4 rushing YPG in all other career games.)

1F. Now, I personally won’t be drafting Murray, because he’s probably going to be free off waivers when he misses Week 1. And he probably won’t be close to full effectiveness as a runner until the second half of the season anyway. But just his mere existence and theoretical upside (at the cost of “free”) serves as a massive feather in the cap for all Late-Round QB drafters.

2A. From Week 10 on, James Conner averaged 19.8 FPG last year, which ranked 2nd-best among all RBs (behind only Christian McCaffrey).

2B. Over this span, Conner eclipsed a 95% snap share in four different games. Across the full season no other RB hit a 95% snap share more than once.

2C. Over the last two seasons, Conner averages 15.9 carries, 5.1 targets, and 21.4 FPG (would have ranked 2nd-best last year) when playing on at least 60% of the team’s snaps.

2D. Over the last two seasons (regardless of snap share), Conner averages 21.6 FPG (would have ranked 2nd-best last year) in games Kyler Murray either sat out or attempted fewer than 2 passes.

2E. Conner has minimal competition for backfield touches, and HC Jonathan Gannon said he’s “100 percent comfortable” with Conner being Arizona’s bell cow this season.

2F. Conner is currently being drafted outside of the top-20 RBs on ESPN, Yahoo!, and NFL.com.

3A. Before suffering a thigh injury in Week 11 of 2021, Marquise Brown ranked 7th among all WRs in FPG (17.8).

3B. Before hitting I.R. with a foot injury in 2022, Brown ranked 7th among all WRs in FPG (18.3).

3C. DeAndre Hopkins, now with Tennessee, leaves behind 10.2 targets per game in his wake. In Weeks 1-6 last year, without Hopkins, Brown averaged 10.7 targets per game. For perspective, only Cooper Kupp averaged more than 10.7 targets per game in 2023 (10.8). Even if this is a team with QB concerns, the Cardinals will need to throw early and often.

3D. On NFL.com, Brown ranks as just the WR45 by ADP.

4A. Believe it or not… Kyle Pitts actually had the best volume of any receiver in fantasy last year.

4B. He led all receivers in expected fantasy points per route run (0.65), just ahead of Tyreek Hill (0.61). And over his final eight healthy games, he earned a 30.4% target share, which would have ranked behind only Davante Adams (32.2%) and Cooper Kupp (30.9%).

4C. All that was good. What absolutely sucked was Pitts’ offensive environment.

4D. The Falcons run a sloth-paced offense – Atlanta ranked 4th-worst in seconds per snap (28.2).

4E. Their offense was World War II-era levels of run-heavy – they averaged the 9th-fewest pass attempts per game by any team since 1985 (which, by the way, was 38 years ago).

4F. And Atlanta’s QB play was atrocious – Marcus Mariota ranked worst of 33-qualifying QBs by off-target throw rate (20.3%).

4G. And Desmond Ridder was somehow even worse than that (27.0%).

4H. Indeed, Pitts’ usage really wasn’t that bad. But it was borderline impossible for him to succeed within this broader context. And unfortunately, it’s hard to envision his situation changing much for the better this year.

5A. Last season, Atlanta Falcons RBs – Round 5 rookie Tyler Allgeier, 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson, and UDFA Caleb Huntley – led the league in rushing yards per game (129.9).

5B. They just spent a top-10 pick on Bijan Robinson, who was – according to my model – the best fantasy RB prospect to come out since at least Saquon Barkley.

6A. Lamar Jackson has unrivaled league-wrecking fantasy upside in 2023, now playing with the best supporting cast of his career. That includes the return of a healthy Rashod Bateman, the additions of Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers, and, crucially, Todd Monken replacing Greg Roman as OC.

6B. The last time we saw Monken call plays at the NFL level, his offense averaged 320.3 passing YPG. That ranks 5th-most in NFL history. And he accomplished this feat with a platoon consisting of career journeymen Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston.

6C. That season, Monken’s offense also ranked 6th-fastest by seconds per snap. Greg Roman’s offenses have ranked bottom-5 in the same stat in three of the last four seasons.

6D. In three career seasons as an NFL play-caller, Monken’s teams threw on 61.6% of their plays (7th-most), while the Ravens ranked dead-last throughout Roman’s tenure (49.3%).

6E. Throughout his play-calling career, Monken’s QBs combined to average 18.2 passing FPG over this span. That would have ranked 4th-most among all QBs last year.

6F. Jackson averages 70.5 rushing yards per start. That ranks most in NFL history, with +43% more than next-closest QB (Michael Vick).

6G. Jackson is probably the only QB in fantasy with realistic 30-plus FPG upside. And that still might be understating it.

6H. During the preseason, Baltimore QBs dropped back 83% of the time (up from 62% last year under Roman). This should boost Jackson’s passing efficiency, as he was the league’s least-efficient passer in 12 personnel last year.

6I. And this should also massively boost his rushing efficiency. (See below.)

7A. And Monken’s fast-paced pass-heavy tendencies shouldn’t only benefit Lamar Jackson…

7B. Over the past four seasons, Travis Kelce has 1,347 more yards than Mark Andrews. But based on YPRR, if Andrews had run as many routes as Kelce, he would have eclipsed him by 41 yards.

8A. What do Odell Beckham Jr., Larry Fitzgerald, and Emmanuel Sanders have in common?

8B. None of them have reached 100 receiving yards in a regular season game since Joe Biden became President of the United States.

8C. And Sanders actually had more 100-yard games during Donald Trump’s term of office.

8D. Somehow, Beckham is being drafted as the WR35 on NFL.com, just behind extremely-less-washed names in Michael Pittman (WR33) and Diontae Johnson (WR34).

9A. According to HC Sean McDermott, Gabriel Davis suffered a high ankle sprain heading into Week 2 of last season.

9B. Before that injury, he averaged 19.7 FPG over his previous seven games. (Davante Adams averaged 19.7 FPG last year.)

9C. High ankle sprains – even mild Grade 1-level high-ankle sprains – often take 3-4 months to heal fully.

9D. Davis himself admitted he was never quite the same after that, but is now back to full health, with Stefon Diggs predicting a breakout year.

9E. I was lower than the rest of the staff on Davis last year when he was being drafted as the WR17, but I love him now at his far more palatable (borderline stupid) WR46 ADP on ESPN.

10A. Before tearing the UCL in his throwing elbow in Week 9, Josh Allen averaged 30.4 FPG with a 115.8 passer rating over his previous 9 games.

10B. If that came over a full season, those numbers would have ranked best all-time (by +8%) and 8th-best all-time.

10C. From Week 9-on (including the postseason), Allen averaged 23.2 FPG (4th-most), but his passer rating fell to just 86.7 (worse than Marcus Mariota’s 88.2).

11A. Last season, Miles Sanders finished as the RB10 in standard leagues, but ranked only 15th in PPR leagues.

11B. HC Frank Reich has repeatedly called Sanders “a three-down back.” And ESPN’s David Newton reported that “the goal is to get [Sanders] back to where he was as a rookie in 2019, when he caught 50 passes with Duce Staley as his position coach, the same role Staley now holds with the Panthers.”

11C. If you replace Sanders’ 2023 receiving production with what he compiled in his rookie year, he would have finished behind only Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey in PPR leagues.

12A. Justin Fields is currently being drafted as the QB6 on all major sites.

12B. Fields averaged an obscene 25.5 FPG over his final nine games, which would have ranked 9th-most by any QB all-time.

12C. The Bears bolstered their offensive line by adding RT Darnell Wright in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft (pick No. 10-overall) and signed RG Nate Davis (PFF’s 17th-highest-graded guard last year) via free agency.

12D. They also added WR D.J. Moore via trade.

12E. It’s scary to think what Fields might be capable of if he makes a similar Year 3 leap to some other hyper-mobile QBs in Josh Allen (who broke out immediately after the Bills added Stefon Diggs via trade) and Jalen Hurts (who broke out immediately after the Eagles added A.J. Brown via trade).

13A. It’s a little bit harder to get excited about D.J. Moore, however…

13B. Last season, the Bears averaged just 22.2 pass attempts per game, which ranks 2nd-fewest by any team in 37 years.

13C. And if that wasn’t bad enough, Justin Fields also greatly struggled with accuracy…

13D. Last season, Fields ranked worst of 31-qualifying QBs in catchable throw rate (70.4%).

13E. So, factor in both Fields’ poor accuracy and Chicago’s run-heavy tendencies, and it can easily be argued that a 15% target share with the Chargers is more valuable than a 30% target share with the Bears.

14A. Last season Joe Mixon finished as the RB6 (17.1 FPG). Even if we remove his 5-touchdown game, he still would have finished as the RB13 (14.2).

14B. More impressively, Mixon ranked 2nd among all RBs in expected fantasy points per game (18.8), with that number nearly matching Austin Ekeler’s league-high 19.9 if we exclude the one game he left early due to injury (19.6).

14C. Mixon is on a top-5 NFL offense, and his volume may even be better this year, with Samaje Perine (8.1 XFP/G) now in Denver.

14D. Somehow, Mixon is being drafted as just the RB17 on NFL.com.

15A. In each of the last two seasons, Ja’Marr Chase has led the league in fantasy points lost due to drops.

15B. He ranks 5th in FPG over the last two seasons (18.9), but if he had perfect hands, he’d average at least 21.7 FPG (2nd-most behind only Cooper Kupp).

15C. Luckily, drop rate is something that almost always regresses to the mean.

15D. And despite his issue with drops, Chase still leads all WRs in fantasy points per target over the last two seasons (2.15).

15E. He was a little less efficient on a per-target basis last year (1.83, down from 2.38), but he did rank lead the league targets per game last season (11.2), despite playing through a hairline fracture in his hip for much of the season.

15F. If you paired his rookie season efficiency with his sophomore year volume, he would have averaged 26.7 FPG (would rank most by any WR in any season all-time).

16A. Nick Chubb is one of the greatest runners in the history of the sport (see above).

16B. After five career seasons playing exclusively with backup-caliber QBs, he now gets a star QB in Deshaun Watson.

16C. In other words, he’s now almost guaranteed to be playing in the best offense (implying more sustained drives and more red zone opportunities) and behind the best gamescript of his career.

16D. Kareem Hunt is no longer in Cleveland to steal ~40% of the team's snaps away from Chubb.

16E. Chubb averaged 3.1 receptions per game in 2019 without Hunt, which was easily a career-high, and would have put him on pace for nearly 50 receptions.

16F. This offseason, Cleveland’s RB coach Stump Mitchell called Chubb a three-down back (in July), has said Chubb is going to be an every-down player only to be taken off the field when he needs a breather (in August), and has even said Chubb could perhaps gain 1,000 receiving yards (June).

16G. Chubb finished as the overall RB6 in PPR leagues last season (with Hunt), and is now being drafted as the RB7 on Yahoo!.

17A. Prior to last season, Deshaun Watson had finished top-6 in FPG in all four career seasons.

17B. He’s currently being drafted as the QB11 on Yahoo!.

17C. Okay, sure, last year was rough. But in his defense…

17D. He was understandably rusty, 700 days removed from his last NFL start.

17E. He had the league’s toughest strength of schedule last year, worth roughly 1.53 FPG off of his FPG average.

17F. And he also had some brutal weather luck across his six starts – average temperature of 33.8 degrees and an average wind speed of 14.0 MPH. He averaged only 183.7 passing YPG over his six starts, but opposing QBs were even worse, averaging just 168.0 YPG.

18A. Since 2017, Amari Cooper averages 10.9 FPG on the road (~WR43) and 16.9 FPG at home (~WR11).

18B. Last season Cooper averaged 8.8 FPG on the road (~WR64) and 18.1 FPG at home (~WR7).

18C. Get this man a sponsorship with Tempur-Pedic ASAP.

19A. In August, Browns HC Kevin Stefanski compared Elijah Moore to Percy Harvin.

19B. That may seem like exaggerated praise to some. But not for me, the President of Elijah Moore’s fan club.

19C. After all, their college production was actually quite similar (except Moore’s numbers were better). And they do possess similar traits – Moore ranked 2nd-best in missed tackles forced per reception last season, a feat Harvin also accomplished in his second NFL season.

20A. Tony Pollard is currently being drafted as the RB9 on ESPN leagues.

20B. Pollard finished as the RB9 last season, averaging 15.6 FPG.

20C. He accomplished this feat despite playing on just 52% of the team’s snaps (29th-most among RBs), which was also less than Ezekiel Elliott’s 55%.

20D. This implies that if Pollard earned a 75% snap share this year (with Elliott now in New England), we should expect Pollard to average an obscene 22.4 FPG (would have led all RBs last year).

20E. Again, Pollard finished 9th in FPG. This was despite ranking just 24th in expected fantasy points per game (12.0), which was again below Elliott (12.7).

20F. This implies that if Pollard captures just 25% of Elliott’s now vacated XFP, he will average 19.7 FPG (good for 3rd-best among all RBs).

20G. Last season, Dallas RBs led the league in rushing attempts (462). Apparently, that wasn’t enough for HC Mike McCarthy, who fired OC Kellen Moore for “wanting to light the scoreboard up” when McCarthy just wanted to “run the damn ball so he could rest his defense.”

20H. Again for emphasis, Pollard appears priced at his absolute floor as just the RB9 on ESPN.

21A. Is Russell Wilson washed?

21B. Most likely. Yeah, probably. But does it really matter?

21C. Last season Justin Herbert finished as the QB11, averaging 17.1 FPG.

21D. Since 2018, Sean Payton has seen the following QBs match or eclipse than number on a per-start basis: Taysom Hill (20.5), Drew Brees in his age 39-41 seasons (19.8), Trevor Siemian (18.0), Jameis Winston (17.2), and Teddy Bridgewater (17.1).

22A. Jerry Jeudy returned to full health in Week 14. From that point on, he ranked as fantasy’s WR3, averaging 20.1 FPG.

22B. In all healthy games (60% snap share or higher), Jeudy averaged 78.7 YPG and 17.0 FPG. Those numbers would have ranked 11th- and 10th-best among WRs last season.

22C. Across the full season and in spite of injuries, Jeudy ranked 13th in YPRR (2.26).

22D. He accomplished all of this on an offense that ranked just 19th in passing YPG – which rose to 222.5 YPG (14th) when Jeudy was healthy and fell to just 190.7 YPG (26th) when he wasn’t.

22E. Jeudy ranks just 25th among WRs in ADP on NFL.com and Yahoo!.

23A. Are we sure Jerry Jeudy is the true WR1 of this team? Well, consider this…

23B. Over the last three seasons, Courtland Sutton averages just 6.5 FPG (~WR93) in games Jeudy played on at least 60% of the team’s snaps. In all other games, he averages 12.6 FPG (~WR30).

24A. Amon-Ra St. Brown averages 20.6 FPG over his last 20 healthy games (>33% snap share).

24B. For perspective, 20.6 FPG ranks tied for 2nd-best among all WRs over the last two seasons (behind only Cooper Kupp).

24C. St. Brown is currently being drafted as the WR10 on NFL.com and Yahoo! Leagues.

25A. Jahmyr Gibbs is inarguably the best pass-catching RB to enter the NFL in at least five years. (See above.)

25B. He’s even (OK, a little more arguably) one of the best receivers in this draft class at any position – his career YPRR average (2.47) is better than that of Round 1 WR Zay Flowers (2.16) or Round 1 TE Dalton Kincaid (2.32).

25C. For RBs, targets are worth 2.5X as much as carries in PPR leagues.

25D. Detroit drafted Gibbs at No. 12 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft.

25E. Since 2011, the six RBs drafted inside of the top-12 have averaged 295.8 touches and 1,510.2 YFS per game in their rookie seasons. For perspective, those numbers would have ranked 9th- and 8th-best last season.

25F. Detroit has a phenomenal run-blocking offensive line – they ranked 3rd-best in non-QB rushing yards before contact per attempt (1.84). And volume should be excellent as well – they force-fed their (extremely mediocre RBs) last season, gifting them the 6th-most carries (436), the 10th-most targets (116), and the most opportunities inside the 5-yard-line (+67% more than the next-closest team).

25G. Even with Gibbs being stuck in a committee alongside David Montgomery, it really wouldn’t take much for him to be a fantasy league-winner.

26A. Last season Jared “Babyhands” Goff ranked 6th in FPG at home (21.7), but just 26th in FPG on the road (12.5).

26B. He threw 23 touchdowns and 3 interceptions at home, versus just 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on the road.

26C. Why draft him in your fantasy league when you can just get your exposure to him in DFS (in weeks he’s playing at home)?

27A. For some reason, the analytics nerds didn’t like Christian Watson when he was coming out of college. This, apparently, was even though he was a 98th-percentile athlete who also averaged 4.33 YPRR in his final NCAA season (6th-best among nearly 4,000 qualifying seasons since 2014.)

27B. When he was coming out of college, my NFL comp for him was “if Randy Moss were mortal.” That seems pretty apt, except for the fact that he was much closer to divine as a rookie.

27C. Across the full season, he led all WRs in fantasy points per route run (0.68).

27D. Just about every other name in the top-10 is going in the top-15 picks of your fantasy draft.

27E. From Week 10 on (when he first started to receive full-time usage), Watson led all rookies and ranked 9th among all WRs in FPG (17.2).

27F. He also averaged 2.26 YPRR – the 7th-best mark by any rookie WR since 2010, or 5th-best since 2007 if touchdown-adjusted. (As evidenced by the names on both lists, these are two of the most predictive metrics we have for young WRs.)

28A. Round 3 rookie WR Tank Dell led all NCAA WRs in receptions (199) and yards (2,727), while also ranking 2nd in touchdowns (29) over the last two seasons.

28B. Over his last three seasons, he had 26 red-zone receiving touchdowns.

28C. Round 1 rookie WR Quentin Johnston – who is 7 inches taller and 43 pounds heavier – had only 3 such touchdowns over the same span.

29A. Anthony Richardson is not only the most athletic QB in NFL history (seriously), but he’s one of the most athletic players in NFL history. (See above.)

29B. He averaged 10.3 career YPC with the Florida Gators, and eclipsed 90 rushing yards six times, despite starting in only 13 career games.

29C. In typical leagues, hyper-mobile QBs are something of a fantasy cheat code; because rushing yards are worth 2.5 times as much as passing yards, and rushing touchdowns are worth 1.5 times as much as passing touchdowns.

29D. Indianapolis’ head coach and offensive playcaller is Shane Steichen, who helped Jalen Hurts average 23.5 fantasy points per start over the past two seasons and helped Justin Herbert to set rookie records in passing touchdowns (31) and passing YPG (289.1).

29E. Richardson has already been named the Week 1 starter, and he ranks as just the QB18 by Yahoo! ADP.

30A. From Week 10 on (but minus a 31-3 blowout against the Texans), Trevor Lawrence averaged 22.3 FPG, which ranked 6th-most among all QBs.

30B. Across the full season, his sophomore campaign appeared eerily reminiscent to that of Andrew Luck. (See below.)

30C. Will the “greatest QB prospect since Andrew Luck” explode in Year 3, much like Luck famously did?

31A. Evan Engram was Jacksonville’s WR1 over the team’s final 8 games (postseason included), leading their receivers with 66.8 YPG and 15.8 FPG.

31B. If over the full season, those numbers would have ranked 2nd-best among TEs, only behind Travis Kelce.

32A. Christian Kirk ran the 5th-most routes in the NFL last year, and finished "only" 20th in FPG (14.3).

32B. Kirk is currently being drafted as the WR28 on NFL.com.

32C. This preseason with Jacksonville’s first-team offense, Kirk was taken off the field in 2WR sets (in lieu of Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones), running a route on just 67% of the team’s dropbacks.

32D. If Kirk had this sort of usage last season, he would have fallen from 1,108 receiving yards (13th-most) to just 775 (37th-most).

33A. There’s a legitimate argument to be made that Travis Kelce is worthy of the 1.01 pick in your fantasy football draft.

33B. Over the past seven seasons, Kelce has finished 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, and 1st among TEs in fantasy points scored.

33C. Last season Kelce was the most valuable player in fantasy, as measured by VORP (Value Over Replacement Player).

33D. Versus all WRs and measured by VORP, Kelce has finished 1st, 4th, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, and 3rd over the last 6 seasons.

33E. In other words, he’s been more valuable than any WR over this span, with only Davante Adams (three top-4 seasons) coming close.

34A. When an NFL team goes to the Super Bowl, they are asked to elect six players to serve as team captains. The Chiefs chose three from the offensive side: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and…. Jerick McKinnon.

34B. Over the final six games of last season, McKinnon averaged 20.8 FPG – 2nd-most among all RBs, behind only Christian McCaffrey.

34C. Granted, these numbers are fairly inflated by touchdowns. But then again, touchdowns are also really important in fantasy football leagues, equivalent to 60 rushing or receiving yards.

34D. McKinnon played on only 50% of the team’s snaps over his final six games, but that number jumped to 68% inside the red zone.

34E. Over the last two seasons, Patrick Mahomes has scored 20 touchdowns on shovel passes (<2 aDOT throws inside the 10-yard-line). The next closest QB had only 6 such touchdowns.

34F. McKinnon is currently being drafted as the RB46 on Yahoo!.

35A. In 2020, Justyn Ross had arguably the best season by any WR in CFB history.

35B. And now Patrick Mahomes is his QB.

35C. He’s currently going undrafted in all formats because people think he can’t beat out Justin Watson or Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

35D. They’re wrong.

36A. Over the past four seasons, Davante Adams ranks behind only Tyreek Hill in fantasy points scored on deep targets (defined as throws traveling 20-plus yards in the air).

36B. This equated to 25% of Adams’ total fantasy points over this span.

36C. Jimmy Garoppolo has easily been the league’s worst deep passer over the last three seasons, earning a 51.8 passer rating on all deep throws. Over this span, just 9.6% of his passing yards have come on deep passes, which ranks dead-last of 50 qualifying QBs.

36D. I can’t even name 50 QBs.

36E. Over the same span, Aaron Rodgers ranks 5th (25.0%), and Derek Carr ranks 10th (23.5%). Both had over 4X as many deep completions and deep passing yards as Garoppolo over the same stretch.

37A. Keenan Allen has finished top-12 in FPG in each of the last six seasons.

37B. Last year, if excluding the two games he left early due to injury, Allen averaged 10.4 targets per game (WR6) and 19.0 FPG (WR7).

37C. He’s still – glaringly – Justin Herbert’s favorite target, and Allen has said he will be inheriting the CeeDee Lamb role in Kellen Moore’s offense.

37D. He’s being drafted as just the WR21 on NFL.com. LMAO.

38A. Kellen Moore’s previous TE Dalton Schultz ranks 4th among all TEs in fantasy points scored over the last two seasons (also 4th in receptions).

38B. Schultz didn’t receive much interest in free agency this offseason, signing a $6.25M/year deal, which ranks 22nd-most among TEs and is less than what Will Dissly, Josh Oliver, C.J. Uzomah, and Tyler Conklin are currently earning.

38C. Last season, Gerald Everett ranked 13th in FPG (9.2) despite functionally being just a part-time player; his 59% route share ranked only 23rd most among TEs.

38D. Everett is currently priced as just the TE25 on Yahoo!.

39A. Last season, Justin Herbert led the league in dropbacks with 759. His 699 pass attempts was almost twice as much as Chicago’s 377, and ranks 4th-most by any QB all-time.

39B. Chargers players and coaches keep remarking how much faster, pass-heavy, and more aggressive (especially downfield) this offense will be this year, which is almost impossible to fathom.

39C. Herbert has one of the best arms in football.

39D. Last season, Herbert’s average depth of target on early downs was a pitiful 5.9 yards. That ranked 56th-of-57 qualifying QBs and bested only Colt McCoy (5.7 aDOT).

39E. Last season, the Chargers missed a combined 25 games from stars LT Rashawn Slater, WR Keenan Allen, and WR Mike Williams.

39F. Herbert himself also played in 16 of 17 games with fractured rib cartilage, and then had shoulder surgery immediately after the season ended.

39G. Prior to that injury, Herbert averaged 23.1 FPG over the last three seasons, which ranked behind only Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

39H. He’s being drafted as just the QB7 on ESPN, Yahoo!, and NFL.com.

40A. Last season, Cooper Kupp led all WRs in FPG (22.4), with that number jumping to 24.8 FPG if we exclude the game in which he suffered his season-ending injury.

40B. For perspective, 24.8 FPG is +3.1 more than what current unanimous 1.01 Justin Jefferson averaged last season, and would also rank 7th-most by any WR in any season in NFL history.

40C. In the previous season, Kupp scored 439.5 fantasy points – the most by any WR in NFL history.

40D. Impossibly, Kupp has exceeded 16.0 fantasy points in 28 of his last 29 healthy games (97%), averaging 25.6 FPG over this span.

40E. For perspective, A.J. Brown has hit 16.0 fantasy points in only 47% of his last 30 games.

40F. For further perspective, 25.6 FPG is +5.0 FPG more than Jefferson over the past two seasons, and +6.7 more than Ja’Marr Chase. And yet they’re both being drafted ahead of Kupp in 99% of all leagues.

41A. Tyler Higbee ranked 4th in targets last year, despite ranking just 18th in route share (64%).

41B. The previous season, he ranked 4th in route share (82%), but multiple injuries to the offensive line forced him to pass block more in 2023.

41C. He’s now over a full year removed from a Grade 2 MCL sprain, has been a surprise star of Rams training camp [1, 2, 3], and has minimal competition for targets after Cooper Kupp.

41D. And yet he’s being drafted as just the TE26 in Yahoo! leagues.

42A. Last season Tua Tagovailoa averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 18th-best in NFL history.

42B. If excluding the two games Tagovailoa failed to play on at least 75% of the team’s snaps and then the Week 3 game against Buffalo in which he never should have been allowed to return to the field, Tagovailoa averaged 20.8 fantasy points per start, which would have ranked 5th-best last season.

42C. In Tagovailoa’s healthy games, Jaylen Waddle averaged 17.0 FPG (would have ranked 8th-best among WRs) and Tyreek Hill averaged 23.0 FPG (would have led all flex-eligible players).

42D. On ESPN, Tagovailoa ranks as the QB14 by ADP, while Hill is the WR3 and Waddle is the WR11.

43A. Tyreek Hill averaged 3.20 yards per route run last season.

43B. That ranks best among 2,158-qualifying WR seasons since 2009.

43C. Hill has said his goal for this season is to reach 2,000 yards.

43D. If he ran as many routes as Justin Jefferson (2.62 YPRR) last year, he would have had 2,208 yards.

44A. Last season Justin Jefferson averaged a career-high 21.5 FPG, and is now being drafted as the 1.01 in 99% of all leagues.

44B. For perspective, Austin Ekeler averaged at least 21.5 FPG in each of the last two seasons.

44C. 21.5 FPG is also 1.0 FPG less than what Christian McCaffrey averaged over 10 full games with the 49ers.

44D. 21.5 FPG is 5.0 (!) FPG less than what a healthy Cooper Kupp has averaged over the past two seasons.

44C. 21.5 FPG is 1.5 FPG less than what Tyreek Hill averaged last year when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy.

44D. And 21.5 FPG is only 1.3 FPG more than what Ja’Marr Chase averaged last season in only his sophomore season and despite playing the bulk of the year with a hairline fracture in his hip.

44E. For clarity, I like Jefferson! I just don’t think he gives you a significant edge over any of these other names.

45A. Last season, Justin Jefferson gained 1,809 receiving yards – the 6th-most in NFL history.

45B. But, to be fair, that looks a little less impressive when you consider the fact that he ran a bajillion routes.

45C. To be exact, he ran a league-high 690 routes, which was also the 2nd-most of any WR since at least 2007. [Credit to Alex Caruso]

45D. If Tyreek Hill ran exactly this many routes in 2022, he would have finished with 399 more yards than Jefferson.

45E. Adam Thielen ran the 2nd-most routes in 2023, with 674 – the 7th-most of any WR since at least 2007. He just didn’t do much for fantasy, because he’s washed, and ranked 4th-worst of 53 qualifying WRs in YPRR (1.06).

45F. If Round 1 WR and former Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison runs as many routes as Thielen did last year and is just perfectly average in YPRR, we should expect 1,146 receiving yards. For perspective, this would have ranked 12th-best among all WRs last year.

45G. Addison ranks as just the WR43 by ESPN ADP.

46A. Last season T.J. Hockenson became one of only 3 TEs since 1985 with multiple games of at least 35 fantasy points in a single season (Week 5 with the Lions, Week 16 with the Vikings). 46B. After joining Minnesota in Week 9, Hockenson averaged 8.6 targets per game, 14.8 XFP/G, and 13.0 FPG.

46C. If over the full season, those numbers would have ranked 2nd-best, 2nd-best, and 2nd-best among all TEs.

47A. In his final season at Alabama, Mac Jones earned a 95.8 PFF Grade – the best mark in PFF College history.

47B. In 2021, Jones earned a 78.5 PFF passing grade – the 3rd-highest grade PFF has awarded to a rookie since 2013.

47C. In 2022, things got bad. But one would have to imagine the decision to allow league-wide laughing stock Matt Patricia to call offensive plays might have played a big role.

47D. In 2022, Patricia will be replaced by Bill O’Brien, who helped lead Deshaun Watson to four consecutive top-6 finishes by FPG.

48A. From Week 5 up until an injury in Week 13, Rhamondre Stevenson was seeing the best volume in fantasy football.

48B. (To be fair, it was a little hard to tell because New England’s offense was wholly inept, ranking bottom-5 in first downs per game over this stretch.)

48C. If you promised me Stevenson would have the same role in 2023, I’d consider taking him with the 1.01 pick.

49A. Chris Olave had one of the most-efficient rookie WR seasons in recent memory, averaging 2.42 YPRR – 7th-best by any rookie WR since at least 2007.

49B. But Rashid Shaheed’s rookie season was actually more impressive on a per-route basis (2.59, 5th-best).

49C. Shaheed never reached 50% of the team’s snaps until Week 12 last season. But from that point on, he was New Orleans’ WR1, gaining 92 more yards than teammate Chris Olave, on only 11 additional routes.

49D. Olave is the WR13 on Yahoo!, while Shaheed is going undrafted.

50A. Michael Thomas ranks 3rd among all WRs in FPG since 2019, only 0.05 FPG off of Cooper Kupp.

50B. Thomas has scored at least 16.0 fantasy points in 73% of these games – more than any other WR over this span, including Kupp (63%).

50C. And he accomplished this feat despite failing to hit a 70% snap share in 6 of his last 11 games.

50D. Even over his last 7 injury-marred games (72% snap share) with extremely questionable QB-play (Taysom Hill, Andy Dalton), he averages 73.6 YPG (~WR12) and 16.5 FPG (~WR13).

50E. Of course – (burying the lede) – Thomas has played in only 10 of a potential 50 games over the last three seasons.

50F. Thomas is being drafted as the WR41 on Yahoo!, one spot ahead of Odell Beckham Jr., who has played in only 21 of a potential 50 games over the last three seasons.

New York Giants

New York Jets

Philadelphia Eagles

Pittsburgh Steelers

San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tennessee Titans

Washington Commanders