2023 NFL Passing Yardage Props

The 2023 NFL season is slowly starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most of the national sportsbooks have posted 2023 NFL Passing Yard Props for the majority of starting quarterbacks. In this article, I highlighted a pair of bets I’ve already made and a couple of additional wagers I considered.

Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL passing yard props.

I previously broke down the NFL MVP race in mid-February, the 2023 NFL Rookie of the Year awards in early May, and NFL Rookie Props in mid-May. Subscribers can see all 26 of the NFL Futures I’ve already bet for the upcoming season.

2023 NFL Passing Yard Props

Players are sorted by their Highest Yardage Total. You should target the Lowest Yardage Totals for over wagers and the Highest Yardage Totals for under wagers.

Brolley’s Bets

Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) under 3950.5 passing yards (-110, DraftKings) — Tagovailoa’s health is going to be under a microscope this season, just like it was for the majority of last year after he suffered consecutive brain traumas in back-to-back games in late September. Tua missed four regular season games and a postseason contest because of multiple concussions in 2022. Additionally, he’s struggled to stay on the field dating back to his time at Alabama. He underwent two tightrope procedures on his right ankle before suffering a dislocated hip to end his college career. He then missed a game as a rookie for a thumb injury in 2020 and four contests for rib and finger fractures in 2021. Tua beefed up this off-season to better withstand the physical toll he’s taken in his first three seasons, but the Dolphins failed to upgrade his bad offensive line, which isn’t great given his lack of pocket awareness. Miami’s receiver depth chart is also thin behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins have the potential to be among the league’s elite offenses, but it’s built like a house of cards.

Deshaun Watson (Cle) over 3500.5 passing yards (-112, FanDuel) — Watson struggled in his return to NFL action after a 23-month layoff, and it didn’t help that the Browns played in one bad-weather game after another in his final five games. He completed 58.7% of his passes for 6.5 YPA and 183.7 passing YPG in six starts last season. Watson previously completed 68.1% of his passes for 8.4 YPA and 272.4 passing YPG in his first 53 career starts with the Texans. Cleveland’s off-season moves at WR — they acquired Elijah Moore, Marquise Goodwin, and Cedric Tillman — are signs that Kevin Stefanski is going to cater his offense more to Watson’s strengths in 2023 than to Nick Chubb and the running game as he did in his first three seasons as head coach. Stefanski’s job is on the line this season, and he can’t afford for his quarterback to struggle again in an offense that he isn’t comfortable in. Watson will likely be my most-drafted quarterback in Underdog drafts this summer, and I’ll continue to back him at his discounted passing yards total.

Brolley’s Leans

Josh Allen (Buf) under 4350.5 passing yards (-110, DraftKings) — The Buffalo Bills have been frustrated with their inability to put away games with their running game in recent seasons. They beefed up the interior of their offensive line by signing Connor McGovern and drafting O’Cyrus Torrence to go along with the addition of Damien Harris at running back. Allen also has to deal with bad weather games in Buffalo late in the season and a trio of formidable secondaries in the AFC East. I’m hesitant to bet an under at this moment, with the Bills being one of the favorites to land DeAndre Hopkins.

Dak Prescott (Dal) under 4100.5 passing yards (-130, DraftKings) — This total is a bit too severely juiced to the under at -130 odds, or else I’d seriously wagering on this prop. HC Mike McCarthy has made it known that he wants the Dallas Cowboys to run the rock and lean into his top-flight defense more this season after firing the pass-happy play caller Kellen Moore in the off-season. Prescott has also missed significant time in two of his last three seasons — 16 total games — after never missing a game in 2016-19.

Trevor Lawrence (Jax) over 3900.5 passing yards (-112, FanDuel) — Lawrence took a significant step forward with his YPA (6.0<7.0) and passing YPG (214.2<241.9) from his rookie campaign to his sophomore season. He started to take off in the second half of last season under Doug Pederson and his revamped receiving corps, which will be even better this season with blue-chip receiver Calvin Ridley added to the roster. It would be a major disappointment if he doesn’t take another step forward, and it doesn’t hurt that Lawrence has never missed a college or pro game for injury — he sat out two games for COVID in 2020 at Clemson.

Kenny Pickett (Pit) over 3125.5 passing yards (-115, BetMGM) — Pickett averaged just 6.1 YPA and 207.6 passing YPG in his 11 full starts in 2022, but he’s poised to take a significant step forward in his second season with an improved cast around him. Pickett needs to average just 183.9 passing YPG over a full season to cross this total and a doable 223.3 passing YPG if he would start 14 games. I’m staying away from this bet for now after Pickett landed in concussion protocol twice last season. I also have little faith that OC Matt Canada is the right play caller to take this offense to the next level.