I’m sure there are hundreds of “how to play fantasy football” articles on the internet, and some of them might actually be written by human beings, as opposed to being created by AI. Some of these articles are helpful, but most of them can be classified as overkill.
I’m not going to delve into all the minutiae relating to fantasy football best practices and strategies, especially since variations between scoring systems, roster sizes, player retention (i.e.: dynasty/keeper leagues), and more can impact your strategic approach. But what I can do is give you a good lay of the land in 2023 while mapping out an optimal plan of attack at each position.
I’m going to assume for this article that you’re in a “regular” fantasy league comprising 10 or 12 teams and generic parameters otherwise, such as starting lineups and benches, head-to-head matchups each week, a regular and postseason, etc. I’m also going to assume you know a lot (or at least a fair amount) about the NFL, and you know most of the players, but you’re just not sure about when you should be drafting players at each of the skill positions.
Let’s get into it.
All ADP (Average Draft Position) referenced in this article is data from Underdog Fantasy.
QUARTERBACK
If you don’t know what round to take a QB in, you came to the right place. Anyone can tell you to grab Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen in the second round, but I don’t believe that’s an optimal plan in 2023. The QBs are getting more love the last few years, and I’ve been supportive of that to an extent, but 2023 is a good year to wait at least 4-5 rounds before selecting your QB1. As I’ll explain in the WR section, you want to get in the wideout business early this year, and going QB in the second could hurt your WR strength.
I don’t mind Joe Burrow (45 Average Draft Position) or Justin Herbert (53.8) if I’m not feeling any non-QB in the fourth round, but my two best targets are Trevor Lawrence (64) and Deshaun Watson (84) with Daniel Jones (110) as my backup plan. There are other solid options in this range of picks, but these are my top targets. For the record, I do not endorse one of the pricey “cheat code” options in the top-50 overall in running QBs Lamar Jackson (33) and Justin Fields (44). They could certainly pan out, but I view Lawrence and Watson as safer, and they’re also more affordable.
As for my QB2, assuming it’s not a 2-QB league, if I want to take one, I might wait until the bitter end of the draft to select Kenny Pickett (170) with Brock Purdy (190) as my backup plan. I do like a few others like Russell Wilson (130), Jordan Love (150), and even Kyler Murray (160), but Pickett and Purdy are cheaper and probably have more upside potential if things go well.
A Note on 2-QB/Superflex leagues — In 2-QB leagues, you’re required to start two QBs, whereas it’s only an “option” in Superflex leagues. But ultimately, people behave the same when drafting in both leagues: the QBs go early, because it’s usually foolish to not have a QB in that flex spot. Every league is different, but defaulting to QB in the first round is a safe and steady route.
RUNNING BACK
If you’ve played fantasy in the past and are just getting back into it, a heads up: the RBs have been devalued by the markets. It wasn’t long ago when finding a quality back beyond rounds 3-4 was an exercise in futility, but there are some strong options going off the board in the 50-100 range this year.
I’m prioritizing RB less than I ever have in my life this year, but I’d still like to get at least one high-end RB1 to anchor my RB room. I love Najee Harris (37 ADP) this year because he really should be no worse than a second-round pick, yet he’s unlikely to crack the top-24 all summer. Najee is a great pick in the third, but you can get strong RB2 options later than usual like JK Dobbins (55), Cam Akers (76), and Rachaad White (87).
The bottom line in 2023 is the WRs are getting a lot of love, and it’s pushing the RBs down the board, so those normally inclined to go RB-heavy with their first 3-4 picks are going to be missing out on the only elite WRs on the board, and they’ll also likely miss out on some great RB values in Rounds 5-8.
I’d say in 2023 it’s ideal to have only one RB after three rounds and only two RBs after 5-6 rounds because that will mean you’re likely strong at WR and you’re taking advantage of the value at the RB position (or, you went with a stud QB and/or TE, which is OK).
WIDE RECEIVER
As of early June, 14 of the top-24 picks (58%) are WRs in 2023, which is higher than usual. And as usual, there are only so many studs to choose from, so if you wait on WR, you may be stud-less unless you’re able to land a couple of major sleepers in the draft or on the waiver wire. Stealing a WR value or two is certainly doable, but why risk it? I don’t think it’s a zig-where-they-zag situation, and in fact, I think it’s more of a if-you-can’t-beat-them-then-join-them deal, so I’m focussing on WR more than ever.
I do want to get at least one high-quality RB, so an ideal opening to a draft would be WR-WR-RB or some variation where two wideouts and one back are selected in the first three rounds. If I opened WR-WR, I might be inclined to wait a few rounds before grabbing my WR3, so I don’t want to go overboard at the position, either.
Once the top studs are off the board, for my WR3/WR4 spots, I’m mostly focusing on breakout players like Jerry Jeudy (42) and Drake London (45), and a little later, I’m looking for values/potential breakouts with guys like Jordan Addison (68) and Treylon Burks (72). I’m also searching for undervalued veterans like Diontae Johnson (71) and Gabe Davis (79). Late in the draft, when I’m adding my final 1-2 WRs, it’s all about upside with players like Van Jefferson (155), Jayden Reed (158), Rashid Shaheed (167), and John Metchie (181).
TIGHT END
You should be flexible with this position because I could easily make the case for doing almost anything at TE this year. I could argue that Travis Kelce is a great pick as high at 5 overall. I could also argue that Mark Andrews early in the fourth round is even more appealing. Or, I could present a good case for Kyle Pitts being the optimal pick this year. I think Kelce is very safe in Round 1, and I also like Andews as a pick, but I prefer to bank on a Pitts breakout season, especially since he can sometime be had in the sixth round of a 12-team draft.
There’s a fourth route you can take at this position, and that’s the econo-buy route, which for me entails using two picks on two potential breakout players like David Njoku (102), Chigoziem Okonkwo (130), Greg Dulcich (145), and Juwan Johnson (161). I do like Pat Freiermuth (110) and Cole Kmet (140) in general and will look at those two if they slip.
So there are a number of routes you could take at TE, and as long as you take the right players, you should be fine. If I didn’t list the player above, I’m not considering him one of the “right” players to take this year at TE.
KICKER
The only time you should draft a kicker in a round other than the final round is when your last pick is one of the final picks of the draft. In that case you may want to get one of the top kickers the round before your last pick.
DEFENSE
I’ve been witnessing the demise of the fantasy defense for a long time, and it’s been a terrible descent if you’re an analyst like me because they are less predictable than ever. My general rule on defense is I usually don’t want to be the first team to take one but also don’t want to be the last. I’m also looking out for potential run on defenses and hitting the position a round earlier than usual if I see one. A good rule of thumb is to analyze early-season schedules when selecting a defense.
But the days of taking the top defense in the ninth or tenth round are over — that’s assuming your league still even uses fantasy defenses.
Best 2023 Fantasy Football Draft
Using average draft positions from Underdog Fantasy, let’s draft from the 10th spot so we don’t get access to one of the few no-brainer picks at the very top of the board, and let’s try to draft an optimal team. I’ll focus on drafting a great starting lineup, so I’ll only draft the first eight rounds, or from the top-100 overall.
Round 1: CeeDee Lamb
Round 2: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Round 3: Najee Harris
Round 4: Jerry Jeudy
Round 5: Kyle Pitts
Round 6: Trevor Lawrence
Round 7: Rachaad White
Round 8: David Montgomery
I could have gone in a number of directions right out of the gate but I passed on Austin Ekeler because of the high-quality RBs falling to the 5th-7th rounds this year. I also hit WR hard and got some value at QB and TE while also adding potential elite studs in Trevor Lawrence and Kyle Pitts. If this team hits on a late-round WR pick or two, this looks like a very productive squad from top to bottom.
And that is how you play fantasy football in 2023.
