The Injury Apocalypse. Injury Armageddon. The Fantasy Football End of Days.
Whatever you choose to call last week, we can all agree that it was one of the most painful runs of injuries fantasy managers have ever had to deal with. Christian McCaffrey, A.J. Brown, Cooper Kupp — the list goes on and on. We even lost a key player (Evan Engram) during pre-game warmups.
In dynasty leagues, injuries can drastically alter a team's season, goals, and expectations. The massive injuries from last week might push some managers to consider early rebuilds. For some, this might mean a complete overhaul with an enormous selloff, while for others, it could mean a softer approach, like a partial rebuild or a roster cleanup without a full-scale reset.
There is often a phenomenon in dynasty leagues where rosters containing key players past their age apex are accompanied by other older players. The technical term for this is “rosters a bunch of old guys.” A manager rostering a McCaffrey may now have other assets that do not help them in a fantasy title pursuit but are instead declining assets they are suddenly open to moving.
I have a $750 entry FFPC Dynasty team with McCaffrey on the roster, and I am in this exact spot. This team was in the money last year, and I kept the roster intact for one last go — a push-it-to-the-limit-until-the-tank-is-empty sort of roster. I felt incredible heading into the season. McCaffrey was joined by Tyreek Hill and a fully healthy Kupp. Two weeks later, Hill is the only one of my old guys still healthy. Thoughts of moving him are bouncing around in my head.
There are many managers out there in dynasty leagues who have the exact same thoughts. If you have a contending roster, this creates a situation we can exploit—the dynasty version of wartime profiteering. If your roster can support it, it may be the perfect time to trade for a mercenary.
What is a mercenary in dynasty? A mercenary is a veteran player who is not a long-term addition but can provide short-term value for managers in win-now situations. You are not buying longevity; you are buying wins, fantasy points, and hopefully a league title and the prize money that comes with it. Think Billy Beane and not Brian Cashman. The right kind of mercenary is a player in an ideal situation to excel this season. Most often, these players are going to be past the age apex or right near it.
This player should enter your starting lineup immediately unless the mercenary is a throw-in on a more significant deal. When you acquire age, you are acquiring risk. Never take on risk without reward, and in this case, the reward is fantasy points scored in our lineups.
Mercenaries should only be taken on and targeted by contending teams. If your team's roster is not standing out from the crowd, avoid taking on a mercenary this early in the season, even if the deal seems like a good one. Sometimes multiple younger players will break out and push a team to unexpected heights, and if your middle-of-the-pack team is suddenly a 7-2 contender, there will be players to trade for at midseason. But if your roster can support a short-term veteran, then now may be the time to strike.
Take a look at your opponents. See which managers lost a significant player to injury.
Identify the slight weakness on your contending roster. Next, identify rosters in your league where the manager may be open to moving players. Comb that roster for values that can help you win.
This week, comb the rosters of the managers who lost a key player to injury. There is not a Tyreek Hill on this list. Here are a few mercenaries who stand out and whose cost should not be prohibitive to acquire.
Mercenary Trade Targets
All of these players may not be available this week, but a trade target could get the conversation started. If you are serious about making a trade for one of them, then make a serious offer. If you get a counter and not a straight-up rejection, then you know the opposing manager is at least somewhat willing to trade.
There will be other articles and podcasters who will tell you that it is too early to trade for older veteran mercenary trade targets, but when the price is right, it is time to pounce.
As for the rest of the dynasty marketplace, there were some serious movers last week, and we’ll check on that later.
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans, 27 Years Old
Pollard managers could view his strong start as a window to sell. They could also be scared off from Will Levis’ play on the field (yikes). One thing is for sure, Pollard seems to have fired up the DeLorean to 88 MPH and is playing like it is 2022 again. The PPG average is nice (16.8), but the underlying metrics get us really excited. Per Fantasy Points Data, Pollard has a 16.7% target share (5th among all RBs) - this number should remain static and prop up his output.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals, 29 Years Old
Conner is off to a solid start and the usage is strong. He is averaging 19.4 PPG — 8th among all RBs. The Arizona run game under OC Drew Petzing is rolling. Per Fantasy Points Data, the Cardinals are 8th in the league in Explosive Runs.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints, 29 Years Old
Kamara is the ideal old guy RB to target as a mercenary. The Klint Kubiak offense is ROLLING, as is Kamara. He has more 1st down runs than any player in the league (13), more rushing TDs (4), and still boasts a Kamara throwback-esque 20% target share. His fast start may have upped the price tag a bit, but the 29-year-old age discount remains. If you see a Kamara team that is somehow 0-2 or has injury issues, make an offer.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers, 30 Years Old
Age is less of a factor for TEs, and smart dynasty managers know that. But 30 is still 30. Kittle also approaches the game with a reckless abandon that scares dynasty managers. Deebo Samuel’s injury opens up a potential TE1 overall season for Kittle, so this one will be expensive — but it also may well be worth it.
Chris Godwin , WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 28 Years Old
Godwin has gone full-peak Cooper Kupp in the Tampa Bay offense this season. The usage and efficiency are insane. The dynasty trade market is still treating him as a high-end WR3 when he should be treated as a high-end WR2 based on his role and production. Godwin is averaging 23.5 PPG. The metrics behind the production are overwhelmingly positive. He has a 32.7% target share, a 65 % slot rate, and a 36.6% air yards share.
Stock Up
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks, 22 Years Old
As exciting as Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr.'s Week 2 games were for dynasty managers, JSN’s breakout was equally noteworthy. Dynasty managers breathed a collective sigh of relief as JSN drew an incredible 16 targets, finishing with 12 catches for 117 yards. He did so in the first game without the injured Kenneth Walker. Ryan Grubb’s offense was on full display, with Geno Smith attempting and completing a career-high number of passes. The Seahawks passed on over 69% of their plays. JSN can safely be inserted into your fantasy lineups moving forward.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens 24 Years Old
Flowers has been a target magnet and the focal point of the Ravens passing game through the first two weeks of the season. In Week 1, Flowers had 10 targets but an aDot of only 6.1 yards. Week 2 was a significant change, with the aDot improving to 10.1. We are not used to seeing a WR in a Lamar Jackson led offense with double digit targets in back to back weeks, but the Todd Monken offense is evolving. Flowers now has a 26.7% target share- 12th among all WRs. He has a chance to challenge Derrick Mason’s Ravens all time record for receptions in a season (103).
Erick All, TE, Cincinnati Bengals, 24 Years Old
All’s recovery from a torn ACL to returning to an NFL field is complete. Lost in the excitement of Mike Gesicki’s strong performance was All’s involvement in the offense. The fourth-round pick out of Iowa caught 4 passes for 32 yards. He posted an 11% target share and an impressive 0.32 targets per route run. The team has high hopes for him. All appears to be the tight end of the future in Cincinnati, and his role in the offense could grow as the season progresses. While technically a Michigan and Iowa product, All would continue the red hot streak of former Hawkeye TEs making their mark in fantasy football (LaPorta, Hockenson, Kittle).
Quentin Johnston, WR, LA Chargers, 23 Years Old
I don’t want to get over the top here, but there are a lot of positives with Johnston’s start to the season. Johnston looked like a massive bust in 2023. A first-round pick out of TCU, he failed to do much of anything, even with multiple injuries clearing pathways to fantasy relevance for him. He was badly outperformed by Josh Palmer. Heading into the season, Johnston was an afterthought in redraft, with Palmer and Ladd McConkey selected well ahead of him.
Johnston had a breakout-like performance in Week 2. He caught 5 passes for 51 yards and 2 TDs. He has a 23.9% target share on the season and a 39.3% air yards share. This is a situation to monitor throughout dynasty leagues. I had Quentin Johnston as a Top-10 addition this week in my Waiver Wire article. Could this be a DJ Chark year-two-like bounce back?
Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints, 26 Years Old
In 2023, Nico Collins reminded the dynasty community that third-year breakouts, once a common occurrence, were still possible. This season, Jameson Williams and Shaheed are enjoying red-hot starts. Williams has been written about and discussed in countless articles and podcasts, but each week there is more buzz surrounding Shaheed’s performance and role. Klint Kubiak’s influence has been well-documented, and Shaheed’s strong play is starting to get noticed by a lot of people who were unfamiliar with his spike week ability. He is a big play waiting to happen and a key part of the NFL’s top offense.
Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets, 20 Years Old
Handcuff-plus backs are not supposed to be built like this. Braelon Allen’s breakout performance in Week Two’s win over The Titans coincided with a 24-point performance out of Breece Hall. Allen is an absolute hammer. His early role suggests that we could be looking at a Thunder and Lightening type backfield in New York. Hall is a dominant fantasy force, but the two backs can co-exist with Allen taking on a double digit weekly touch role in an RB heavy scheme. The most promising aspect with Allen’s 2 TD outburst was his 4 targets. His contingent upside is through the roof. If Breece Hall were to miss time, Allen would be a borderline weekly RB1.
Stock Down
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions, 23 Years Old
This is not time to panic, but the slow start to the season has been a tough one for LaPorta fantasy managers. He has 6 catches for 58 yards only 8 targets. His routes run and route participation numbers are strong, but he simply has not been an overwhelming part of the game plan as he appeared to be in many games last season. LaPorta’s target share is only 8.3% and his air yards share is even worse at 8%. LaPorta has a massive amount of dynasty value insulation, but he is simply not seeing the same sort of usage as Brock Bowers or Trey McBride. I moved LaPorta down to TE3 in my dynasty rankings.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals, 24 Years Old
We are officially in early panic mode as dynasty managers with Brown. Brown has been a nonfactor this season. I had high hopes for him this offseason as an explosive high value touch back in an offense that had continually fed RBs targets. This past week, he played only 20% of the team’s snaps as opposed to Zack Moss’ 80. Week 1 was not much better with Brown only seeing a 33% snap share. He only has 3 targets all year. The Bengals are 0-2, and there is a chance that Brown could bounce back with some self scouting. Monday night’s game against Washington will be a tilting one for Brown’s fantasy managers.
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers, 23 Years Old
Put a fork in Young’s tenure as Carolina’s signal caller. He could go down as one of the all time worst #1 picks in the NFL draft. The Dave Canales effect did not work — at all. Young was just as atrocious with Canales. The early benching is a clear sign that the franchise has given up on him and will be moving on this offseason. Look to package Young in a trade to try and salvage something for him and get him off of your roster. He is now just a roster clogger.
The fantasy community getting excited for the potential impact of a 36-year old Andy Dalton taking over behind center, is all you need to know about just how bad Young was.
