They’ve waned in popularity over the last decade, but as an Old Head, I still have an affinity for the traditional draft-and-done NFL playoff leagues, and I can’t imagine the NFL playoffs without them.
Things were basic when I started playing in these in the 80s, and today there are many variations, like the FFPC’s Playoff Challenge, where you can only draft one player from a team. Our Chris Wecht will have a separate article on the site this week for this format, so my strategies below apply to the generic league that drafts a complete team before the playoffs begin and it’s a set-it-and-forget it situation. It’s essentially Best Ball for the playoffs. But it’s different in that your best skill is your ability to predict which teams will advance in the playoffs.
For what it’s worth, I’ve been handicapping the NFL playoffs well for these leagues the last three years. In 2020, I won our 2020 Fantasy Points Staff Playoff League by taking a TB/KC player with 13 of my 16 picks, and I cleaned up. That’s one strategy, by the way: go all-in on two teams and if you get the SB matchup right, you probably win. In ‘21 I went heavy on Packers players and they were one-and-done. But I got a couple secondary calls right and pushed the narrative that the Bengals were the top team to gamble on, which they were, and I managed to come in third in the 2021 league. But last year, I was back on top, winning the 2022 Fantasy Points Staff Playoff League, despite the fact that I got 0.0 fantasy points in the Super Bowl. I also won an 8-team league I did along with our Paul Kelly for the SXM Radio show and I destroyed everyone with only two players who played in the Super Bowl.
There are many paths to glory, but in both cases last year, I won because I got behind the Dallas Cowboys, who a lot of people thought would lose in the first round to the Bucs. They won that game, and while they got shut down by the 49ers, guys like Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Dalton Schultz went off in that first game. I got Dak with the third-to-last pick of the draft, so that was robbery.
But no matter how you slice it, your best chance for success is to predict the playoffs as close to the actual results, and then go heavy on those teams in the draft, so here’s how I see things playing out. This is the most difficult year to handicap, but picks and commitments need to be made, and I made them.
My winners for each matchup are in CAPS.
Wild Card Round
| AFC | NFC |
| (7) Pittsburgh at (2) BUFFALO | (7) Green Bay at (2) DALLAS |
| (6) Miami at (3) KANSAS CITY | (6) Los Angeles at (3) DETROIT |
| (5) CLEVELAND at (4) Houston | (5) PHILADELPHIA at (4) Tampa Bay |
Divisional Round
| AFC | NFC |
| (5) Cleveland at (1) BALTIMORE | (5) Philadelphia at (1) SAN FRANCISCO |
| (3) Kansas City at (2) BUFFALO | (3) Detroit at (2) DALLAS |
Championship Round
| AFC | NFC |
| (2) BUFFALO at (1) Baltimore | (2) Dallas at (1) SAN FRANCISCO |
Super Bowl LVIII
| AFC | NFC |
| (2) Buffalo | (1) SAN FRANCISCO |
It’s hard to get every matchup right, but you have to pick an upset or two if you’re to get it all right, so that’s what I try to do. This year’s a little unique in that there are two very clear favorites and the rest of the field is wide open. That means it would probably behoove you to get at least a handful of 49ers/Ravens and then do your best to get as many players on teams you think will play at least two games as you can.
Last year I did pick a 49ers-Bengals Super Bowl, but my rankings of the teams in terms of their fantasy playoff appeal was pretty solid and helpful. For example, my top three teams (Cin, SF, and Phi) all played three games, and the Bengals and 49ers were 1-2 ref calls and a Brock Purdy injury away from playing in four games.
This year’s tougher, but I at least feel pretty good about the teams that I view as keys to a 2023 playoff league victory.
Here’s how I rank them in order of appeal while considering my projected numbers of games played but also their players’ potential in the games they do play in:
- Buffalo — The fact that I’m picking them to beat Baltimore doesn’t matter too much because even if I’m wrong and that game is played and the Ravens win, Baltimore still plays in three games, just like Buffalo. So the Bills players have more upside.
- San Francisco — I now think the 49ers clearly have the easier path to the big game, since the Eagles are toast. That makes the 49er players very, very appealing.
- Dallas — I could actually see them losing this week, even in a Mike McCarthy revenge game. They lost to the Packers in OT last year in GB, and they also lost a playoff game in 2017 to McCarthy’s Packers on a walkoff FG. Oh, and the “Dez Caught it” playoff game back in 2014. I’m sure there will be drama and nail-biting, but I’m taking them to beat the Packers and Lions.
- Baltimore — They are the best team in the AFC, but they are hardly dominant. And not to doubt Lamar Jackson, but I think it’s fair to kinda doubt Lamar until we see a stellar playoff performance. There’s some downside to most of these No. 1 seeds these days. If they slip up in their first or second playoff game, and you don’t get the benefit of a lesser opponent in the Wild Card Round, drafting players from a team with a bye could be disastrous. I learned that two years ago rolling with the Packers.
- Kansas City — They’re a mess, but so are the Dolphins, and the world champs could certainly get hot with Patrick Mahomes and manage three playoff games. They’re not going to Miami, Buffalo, and Baltimore and winning but they could win in Buffalo, and that would give them the three games.
- Cleveland — They’re sneaky as hell, so keep that in mind because their players won’t cost much. I do like them to win this week, so that’s two games. And a red hot Joe Flacco in Baltimore in a revenge game? The Ravens lost the last time these teams met on a walkoff FG with Deshaun Watson at QB midseason, and I do think there’s a chance that Baltimore fans luuuuuike this result even less.
- Philadelphia — Philly is limping into the playoffs, obviously, and they are a disaster. They will either pack it in and embarrass everyone, or they will band together for at least one playoff game and squeeze out a win. Assuming AJ Brown’s knee is in decent shape, I’m going with the ladder due to Jalen Hurts.
- Detroit — I’m not exactly inclined to doubt The Dude, but the Sam Laporta injury is a buzzkill. Still, I have them winning this week in Detroit (barely, probably), so that’s two games. They remind me a little of the Cowboys last year in that they may surprise with how many games they play and/or score a lot of points in their games.
- Miami — One rule of thumb when drafting late is looking at teams that could go out with a bang if they go out, and Miami’s a decent example. They also have enough bang to win a playoff game, which gives you eight quarters of Tyreek Hill at least, and Tyreek in a revenge playoff game this week.
- Los Angeles — A win this week would not be a shock, that is for sure. But I’ll give the edge to the slightly better defense and the home field advantage with the Lions. But LA’s players do have nice go-out-with-a-bang upside.
- Tampa Bay — The Eagles are so bad that the Bucs have to go next. Philly has a truly unique home field advantage in that they’ll kill you in Philly when the team is playing well yet when they’re not, like now, it’s an advantage for them to be playing on the road because the fans will boo them off the field. It’s that factor and Jalen Hurts that has me picking the Eagles, but it’s close.
- Green Bay — I love the Packers and Jordan Love and all that, but this is a big task for Love to beat the Cowboys in Big D. It’s totally doable, so I’m targeting Packers late in drafts for sure, but I’m not predicting it.
- Houston — I may regret this low ranking if they surprise and beat the Browns, which could certainly happen. But once again, I’m not predicting that.
- Pittsburgh — One thing I am predicting is this: the Steelers will not win this weekend.
Here's a quick position-by-position look at my plan of action for this year’s playoff drafts along with some alternative paths at each spot. Keep in mind, the number of teams in the league greatly impacts the plan.
The Quarterback Plan
I randomly got the #1 pick in our Staff Playoff Draft, and trust me, it was random, and it was shocking to learn that I had to make a tough decision right out of the gate. But I’m big on Wild Card Round players who I think could make it to the Super Bowl because they are playoff league winners, so I took Josh Allen. So that’s plan A: take Allen if you can, like I did:
This is a superflex league with six teams, which is probably ideal with superflex because there usually aren’t 10-12 viable QBs, which can make things like draft position too important if you go 10 or 12 teams. Although, I know some leagues allow participants to draft each player twice, which is cool.
But back to the general plan: If I missed out on Allen, I’d probably want Brock Purdy, but it would be a tough call between Purdy and Lamar Jackson if I had that option. Ideally, I’d want one of those three. Full stop.
Now, our guy, Tom Brolley took Dak Prescott at three overall in our Staff Playoff Draft, which was ballsy, and the Grinder is rarely wrong, so he’s an elite option given their ability to go on a run.
But if I didn’t get Allen, Lamar, or Purdy, I’d probably go the cheap route, even in a superflex. I actually took Allen with the first pick of this draft and then I took Jordan Love with the last pick of this draft, so that’s pretty extreme. But I like Love as a guy to have in your back pocket, since I think a Packers win has about 40% chance of happening, and since he could post 30+ points in a loss. I also like Joe Flacco quite a bit, and Paul Kelly snipped him from under me in our Staff Playoff Draft or else I’d be a wacko for Flacco this postseason.
Paul and I then played a game of chicken for our QB2 spot, as neither of us took one until the very end of the draft knowing everyone else was locked in with two QBs. I got greedy and waited until the very end and let Paul make the decision for me, and he went with Baker Mayfield. That was the right pick, at least for me, since I had already committed to TB with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rashad White, so I may regret that. Then again, if the Packers win and the Bucs lose, it might be a wash. And if the Packers and the Bucs win, I’m happy, since I did not invest a single pick on a Cowboys player. That fact was in the back of my mind with the Love-Baker decision, honestly. If TB wins, I’m already heavily invested there.
Otherwise, I think Jared Goff stands out a little in that he won’t cost much, and I have them playing in two games. They could also go on a run and play a third game.
Then I’m down to the best options among the teams I think will be one-and-done, and they are:
Tua Tagovailoa
Matthew Stafford
CJ Stroud
Note: I’d put Jordan Love atop this list considering his low cost and upside.
The Running Back Plan
In our Staff Playoff Draft, I placed a priority on QB, RB, and TE, and I liked the results. I used the 12th pick overall on James Cook in the second and Jahmyr Gibbs in the fourth, so I used two of my first four picks at RB, which I liked in a light RB field. I grabbed Rachaad White in the seventh for a decent value and a great value if they win this week, and that was it for me in the staff draft.
I really did like my picks of Cook and Gibbs, two of the top targets at the position this postseason. Here are some other picks I liked:
Montgomery was exactly what I thought he’d be this year, and he was very good. Pollard may go down as the steal of the draft, as several players clearly had him in key leagues this year based on all the “too soon” faces that appeared on our livestream. Pollard was painful to roster this year, but this was a good value.
Once again, these guys. Two more good picks at this low cost, especially Ford, who I think has a better chance to play two games. If both players play in two games, Jones will be the better pick, of course.
Hey, why not?
Late in these drafts, there are usually secondary guys on teams who you think will play in at least two games, like this year with:
Justice Hill
Kenny Gainwell
Kareem Hunt
Rico Dowdle
I’m also looking at the best one-and-done options, especially if I think their team has a legit chance to win this weekend.
Rachaad White
Raheem Mostert (who is also hurt)
Jaylen Warren/Najee Harris
Devin Singletary
The Wide Receiver Plan
As usual, this is the position where there’s the most depth, so you can be a little flexible, as I was in the Staff Playoff Draft, when I opted against the Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs stack by (after taking James Cook at 12) going with George Kittle. I wanted an elite piece on the 49ers and it was last chance saloon with Purdy, Deebo, and Aiyuk off the board.
I also wanted Khalil Shakir later, but apparently Paul Kelly’s New Year’s Resolution was to be a vindictive fantasy draft snipper, and he took my guy shockingly early:
I’m certainly into the 49ers receivers early, along with Diggs, and CeeDee Lamb looks like an elite option. But this position is a little a dime-a-dozen this year, and it’s even hard to differentiate the values of many one-and-done players to lesser players likely playing multiple games.
Considering it all, here are some of my favorite picks/targets other than Shakir.
If we’re digging a little deeper, there are some options I like on teams that I think will play multiple games, such as:
Rashee Rice
Rashod Bateman
Odell Beckham
Elijah Moore
Brandin Cooks
And also some low-end guys I think will play 2 or more games:
Cedric Tillman
Jalen Tolbert
Josh Reynolds
Kalif Raymond
There are a ton of great one-and-done options who’ll go a little later in drafts, and it’s harder to pick winners this year, so they may not be one-and-done:
Puka Nacua
Mike Evans
Chris Godwin
Jaylen Waddle
Jayden Reed
Christian Watson
Nico Collins
George Pickens
Diontae Johnson
And low-end guys:
Romeo Doubs
Bo Melton
Dontayvion Wicks
Xavier Hutchinson
Demarcus Robinson
Cedrick Wilson
Trey Palmer
The Tight End Plan
It’s not a great year for TEs, and I was actually the first one to take on in our Staff Playoff Draft right here:
The next TE off the board was here, so the position is top-heavy:
I actually wanted to take Brandon Aiyuk with this pick, but he went right in front of me. Had I gotten Aiyuk, I was going to target this guy, especially since I had his QB:
Some other good targets for me from our draft were:
Otherwise, I’m waiting until the bitter end for a one-and-done guy and I’d rank them:
Dalton Schultz
Tyler Higbee
Pat Freiermuth
The Place Kicker Plan
Once again, more games equal more points, so I’m targeting Tyler Bass for sure. I’m not going to be actively targeting the shaky Jake Moody, but I did take him in our draft because I was lacking in terms of 49ers.
Otherwise, I’m looking for a good option on a team I think will play two games at least, like Justin Tucker, Brandon Aubrey, Michael Badgley, Harrison Butker, and Jake Elliott.
The Team Defense Plan
It’s the same as the kicker plan, but I did take the 49ers DST in our draft, once again because I was light on 49ers. They are also as good of an option as any given the overall quality of the team. I’d go with the Bills DST next, followed by Ravens DST.
Otherwise, I’ll roll with a unit I think will play in at least two games, like:
Dallas
Cleveland
Detroit
In summary, here’s my basic plan of attack this year:
- Hit QB hard with a potential SB participant or 3-game guy.
- Get on the RBs before they dry up
- Considering paying for an elite TE
- Take advantage of the good depth at WR
- Focus generally on teams that are a good bet to play in two games and also surprise with production, like the Cowboys last year.
That’s all I have, good luck and enjoy the playoffs!
