We may never encounter a season like the 2020 NFL campaign again, but navigating an entire season during a pandemic actually helped open my eyes to some newer trends in the league, so there were plenty of useful lessons learned that we can apply to future seasons. And even if some of the insights gained from this past season are specifically related to the pandemic and its residual effects on the league, we may be in a very similar position with the virus this year as we were last year, so taking stock in the COVID-marred experience and the knowledge gained from the recently completed season could be the difference between winning and losing in 2021.
I’m all about continuing my fantasy football education, so I’ve once again closely reviewed the takeaways and insights I gained from the season. These are lessons that I will be revisiting before my 2021 summer drafts, and they will be permanently stored in my personal fantasy football knowledge bank.
Here’s what I got…
Ballers are gonna ball
I use the preseason to form my “vibes” and opinions more than most, so the lack of an exhibition season and less media access to players and coaches in August took away from my usual process and probably hurt my chances of getting a few more predictions right. Still, if things were normal, I can’t say for sure that I would have seen the light on players like Aaron Rodgers, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Justin Herbert, whom we all undersold this summer.
With most of these players, it was easy to roll with the analysis and opinions that were formed in the offseason based on the moves their teams did or didn’t make. With no formal offseason workouts, no preseason games, and less information than usual coming out of training camps, it was nearly impossible to find reasons to adjust the logical off-season positions we (or at least I) took on certain players.
With an aging Rodgers coming off an underwhelming first season in Matt LaFleur’s offense in 2019, it was easy to be pessimistic after Green Bay didn’t add a receiver of note in free agency and then used its first-round pick on a QB followed by a RB in the second and a fullback in the third, three moves that didn’t seem encouraging for Rodgers. There were no strong indications that Rodgers was in such a good place heading into his second year in the offense, as we eventually learned he was, and I’m sure part of that can be blamed on limited media exposure to players in training camp and the lack of preseason games. So I can’t take the full blame on underselling Rodgers.
But his 2020 was absolutely ridiculous, and I feel like a jackass for not anticipating at least some fantasy upside and “F.U.” potential from Rodgers in his second year in the offense. It all came together for a variety of reasons, but the most important factor was the obvious factor: Rodgers is a baller and one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks to ever play. Sure, he was more comfortable playing within the structure of the offense, which helped a lot, but ultimately his fantasy production from 2019 to 2020 increased 35% because, with a high level of comfort in the system, his obscene talent took over.
In the case of the Los Angeles Chargers and their rookie QB and top wideout, I presumed the rookie Herbert would start the majority of their games, despite what HC Anthony Lynn kept saying in August, and Herbert did, finding himself in the starting lineup in all but one of their contests. Tyrod Taylor had that unusual situation in Week 2 with a freak injury caused by a team doctor, but it was pretty clear that Herbert was not long for the bench, and that didn’t seem like a good thing for Allen. Herbert’s college tape showed inconsistent accuracy, and there were legit concerns about his lack of timing and anticipation. Herbert’s apparent flaws were obvious concerns for Allen, especially since Herbert wasn’t able to work normally in the minicamps and OTAs. Allen, of course, had been a volume receiver who flourished playing with a future Hall of Famer in Philip Rivers and Phil rarely had problems getting Allen the ball repeatedly.
The lesson applies to both players. Herbert was able to step onto the field and throw for 311 yards in his first start, and Allen balled out with 7/96 on 10 targets and both never looked back because they’re both absolute ballers who stand out among their peers for a variety of reasons. In Herbert’s case, his poise, high-level intelligence and elite physical traits showed quickly, and Allen’s hands and savvy route-running and separation skills remained on display, despite switching from one of the better QBs of all time to a rookie who didn’t have a usual off-season.
In Diggs’ case, I did wise up to him later in the preseason, mainly because I was very high on Josh Allen and got fed some good information on how Diggs was performing in training camp from our guy Adam Caplan. I also got wind of how they planned to use Diggs less as a deep threat and more as a RAC guy. But I still undersold him and we still ranked him too low (WR31, his ADP was WR28). For most of the off-season, I wasn’t particularly optimistic, and neither were the masses, given his low ADP (he was down 30 ADP spots from 2019). It was a leap of faith to believe Diggs would step in as the #1 WR and produce immediately, yet that’s exactly what he did. Allen improved measurably, and that obviously helped, and Diggs was also aided by the fact that he did more than ever near the line of scrimmage (his YPR was down almost 6 yards and his YPT was down 3 yards). On top of everything the Bills were unpredictably super pass heavy. But ultimately, Diggs rose above the challenges of changing teams during a pandemic because he’s an absolute baller with elite separation ability and incredible hands.
Unfortunately, there is a chance the 2021 offseason plays out much like the 2020 offseason, so the rookies and also the veteran free agents moving onto new teams will have more challenges than usual again. So I’ll be sure to remind myself of this critical 2020 lesson because, as we saw this past year, even a worldwide pandemic can’t keep a baller down.
It’s all about playmaking traits
We saw in 2020 that a “baller” can overcome obstacles like a lack of an off-season, but the definition of a baller or a “playmaker” has shifted the last decade or so. Way back in the mid-80s, one of the most physically gifted QBs to ever play slipped to the 2nd round of the NFL draft because the 6'4” Randall Cunningham relied too much on his playmaking. Cunningham was not a prototypical QB back then, but Peyton Manning sure as hell was when he entered the league a little over a decade later. Entering the NFL, the meticulous Manning was one of the most prepared players in league history, playing four seasons at Tennessee and spending a ton of time in the film room and on the practice field. Manning was a top-10 QB that rookie year, but he did it with volume, leading the league in pass attempts. He also led the NFL with 28 INTs, and he completed only 56.7% of his passes. It was clear he was going to be very good after that initial 1998 campaign, but no one was surprised that he took his lumps in Year One. In fact, at that time, it was expected.
The league wasn’t truly ready for Randall, who didn’t open the season as the starter until his third year. Now, guys like Randall win the MVP in only their second season in the league and their first as a starter to open the season (Lamar Jackson). Granted, we’re talking 30 years between the two players, but that’s a seismic shift. Justin Herbert had some clear flaws coming out of college, just like Manning, whose arm strength and lack of athleticism were questions. Manning had a good rookie season, but Herbert had a great rookie season, arguably the best ever, through a pandemic.
Herbert’s immediate success would have been inconceivable in 1998, but today it is, well, conceivable.
We’ve seen it over and over again this past decade with the running QBs excelling right away in terms of fantasy, and also reality, but it’s not just their running. In Herbert’s first start, he ran for only 8 yards, but he put up 264/4 passing, and he actually ran the ball more than five times in a game only two times in 15 tries. Herbert’s mobility and second-reaction ability absolutely helped him excel this year, and that’s an advantage he had over Manning as Peyton embarked on his NFL career.
But there are a lot of other advantages that a rookie or young QB has now over those who came before them. Obviously the rules have been adjusted over the last 20 years to really help the passing games and make defending them even tougher. The NFL’s adoption of college concepts has also really helped. It used to be that we had to be careful about relying on college passing stats, since receivers tend to get wide open in college football. Now, thanks to spread offenses and RPOs, the windows aren’t as tight in the pros, and NFL receivers have been getting wide open more frequently. The middle of the field is more exploitable than ever, so these young guys like Herbert are making easier throws than their predecessors.
No two players are the same, and there are always a lot of reasons why a player has success or not, but clearly, the learning curve for players entering the league, especially the QBs, has been flattened. That helps everyone at the QB position make plays at the NFL level, but when you enter the league with the physical tools to dominate, all the elements in play that have been helping young QB assimilate quickly are magnified. I remember watching Herbert’s 2018 tape around this time in 2019, when it looked like he may come out that year, and my initial reaction was that he was a stud. But upon further inspection (especially of his shaky 2019 college tape), I had more questions than answers about Herbert heading into his rookie season, and I wasn’t alone. As it turned out, my initial reaction was correct and the flaws I fixated on last summer turned out to be less important because the guy was in a position to make plays, and thanks to his elite physical traits, he made them left and right.
It is ironic in that we just witnessed a Super Bowl that pitted the old school QB Tom Brady vs. the new breed of QB in Patrick Mahomes, and that the Old School won. But the days of the non-athletic and purely cerebral QBs dominating like Brady are dwindling. Hell, they may be almost over right now. Yes, many of the rules have been tweaked to help all QBs, and a guy like Jared Goff has taken advantage of the current QB-friendly environment along with the rest. Goff was the top pick of the 2016 draft, but only five years later, I’m not even sure he’d be a first round pick if he was in the 2021 draft. Goff throws the ball well and can consistently win from the pocket, but second-reaction abilities are minimal, so he’s not someone we can describe as a “playmaker” at this stage. As Greg Cosell will preach, in today’s NFL, it’s paramount to have the ability to make plays late in the down. With Goff, the later in the down it gets, the worse he gets.
In short, for the QBs, the NFL is more about physical traits than ever, which makes former Ohio State QB Justin Fields an interesting case study this year. Fields had a brilliant 2019 season and was a Heisman finalist, but in 2020 he had a couple of rough showings, especially in the Big Ten Championship Game against Northwestern. Fields did play well and showcased his toughness playing through an injury in the college football playoffs, but there may be teams that drop Fields on their boards due to his underwhelming regular season and due to questions about his ability to read NFL defenses, his lack of experience, ec. They said similar things about Dwayne Haskins coming out of Ohio State, and in that case they were right.
But Haskins is not a playmaker in the present-day NFL. He’s much more Goff than he is Herbert, and Fields looks just as talented overall as Herbert. So if I owned a QB-needy NFL team and had the #2 pick, I’d run to the podium to pick Fields. If I owned a dynasty team in need of a QB, I’d be all about acquiring the former Buckeye, who should cost less in any fantasy draft than Trevor Lawrence. I think, for the most part, those questioning Fields’ ability to excel at the next level are viewing him through a 20-year old lens, just like they did (and I did) with Herbert last year. Another fascinating case study will be former Alabama QB Mac Jones, who really looks the part of a solid field general and who throws the ball with excellent touch, timing, and accuracy. But he’s also limited in terms of his second-reaction ability, and he might have trouble with the speed of the NFL game. I would not consider him a “playmaker” in today’s NFL, so if he’s to have a high level of success, I think he’ll have to be a “system QB” and play in a run-based offense like the 49ers, Vikings, or Browns.
When it comes to analyzing the NFL and it’s players for fantasy, I’ve been a lot more focussed on the qualitative side of things for the last 15+ years, which is the main reason I started working with Greg Cosell in the mid-2000s. The numbers are the numbers, and there’s obviously value in understanding all the data. But talent and playmaking ability is where it starts, so it’s never been more important to understand who has the traits to consistently make plays in the NFL. That’s especially true each year for the rookies, and isolating those traits on college tape and applying them to their NFL transition is one of Greg’s specialties.
There are seasons within a season, and fortunes can change quickly
The RB position has always been widely thought of as the easiest position for players to transition from college to the pros, and the QB position has been universally considered the hardest. So I found it very ironic that, in 2020, it was easier for the top QBs to make a big impact right away than it was for most of the top backs. Quarterbacks excelling right out of the NFL gate is becoming more common over the last 10 years for reasons outlined above, but it was still a little weird to see in the COVID season.
I have a theory: the pandemic definitely had a role in this juxtaposition, and some teams opted to be patient with their top RB picks because they had quality alternatives already on the roster to lean on early in the season (like in Indy). In the cases of Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, they were top-10 picks drafted by extremely QB-needy teams, so it’s no surprise that those two guys played a lot early in the season. What was surprising was how well those two did right away, at least it was with Herbert.
There’s a chance we will see something similar since the 2021 off-season is likely to be disrupted by the ongoing pandemic (the Combine has already been canceled/adjusted), so it’s worth taking a look at how I’d handle the rookie RBs this past year if I could go back in time. Basically, I’d advise to be very skeptical about their prospects early in the season due to the lack of an off-season. I’d be especially cautious if a RB’s team had a quality back or two (or three) already on the roster and familiar with the system. I did the complete opposite of that by pushing Jonathan Taylor, and it didn’t go particularly well in the first half of the season. And that’s with Marlon Mack suffering a season-ending knee injury Week 1. But I’d also be fully prepared to buy these guys at a discount on the trade market once their values started dropping, and that I did do with guys like Taylor and D’Andre Swift.
When I rank and project a rookie for an upcoming season, I’m always playing the long game, and I felt that the cream would rise to the top with Taylor standing out and claiming the lead back role. I wasn’t that concerned about the first 4-6 weeks of the season because I viewed Taylor as a desirable league-winner, which he was, but strongly backing Taylor may have hurt some people who ended up out of the playoff mix later in the season, thanks to Taylor’s lack of steady production. I felt bad about overselling Taylor, Cam Akers, and even Swift, but I wasn’t touting them as good players to target for just the first 4-6 weeks of the season; I was looking at their prospects for the entirety of the season, especially their chances of being highly-impactful the final 4-6 weeks of the season.
I did feel better once these players actually kicked ass on the field and produced for fantasy, which at least gave people a glimpse of why I pushed them in the first place, and I did also push Taylor and Swift repeatedly as players to trade for on the cheap, which was THE play with these rookie RBs in 2020. It got to the point that I had to open Taylor’s writeup in my Players to Trade & Trade For article with an apology for listing him for the fourth or fifth week in a row. I wasn’t being stubborn by continuing to stan for my favorite preseason pick, either. I legitimately thought he was a great buy-low guy and a potential game-changer, and from Weeks 11-17, he was, ranking as the RB3 in total fantasy points and PPG. Before that, from Weeks 4-10, which was another season within the season, Taylor was the RB27 and ranked below several undrafted guys like Jerick McKinnnon and Wayne Gallman. So if we see a very similar off-season to 2020 play out in 2021, and I didn’t draft a guy like Travis Etienne or Najee Harris, I’d be closely monitoring them and any other appealing rookie RBs early in the season because they could be great trade-for guys, as Taylor was for much of the first half of the season.
As we know in the NFL, things can drastically change from season to season. But over the course of the 2020 campaign, I felt compelled to comment on how the season seemed to be broken up in 2-3 miniseasons, and some things changed dramatically from mini season to miniseason. For example, David Montgomery was awful the first nine weeks of the season, averaging only 3.5 YPC with only one rushing TD, and then he was a league winner as the RB1 the final six weeks of the season. Veteran WRs TY Hilton and Marvin Jones were dead for most of the first two months of the season, and then they won a lot of fantasy playoff games and championship games in November and December. I liked Baker Mayfield and the Browns’ chances of rebounding this summer, and for about two months I was dead wrong … until I wasn’t. Granted, Baker’s production wasn’t nearly as consistent as I expected, but the guy was the QB5 for the fantasy playoffs Weeks 13-16 with a healthy 23.1 FPG.
Maybe things will be a little less volatile in 2021, but the lesson I learned with these players and others like them, is that a player’s fortune can change on a dime in today’s NFL. If you follow the league closely and your instincts are usually correct, trust those instincts and try not to bail on a player you drafted or picked up on the WW because you acquired these players for a reason. And if there’s a player at a need position for you who’s struggling and likely frustrating his owner, look into the player further to see if there’s hope for a turnaround. In Montgomery’s case, I actually advised to trade for him when things seemed hopeless while he was out with a concussion, and it wasn’t that hard to make that call because his price tag was low, he owned the backfield, and their schedule was about to get incredibly soft. As for Hilton, I was actually fairly optimistic when he wasn’t producing mid-season because I noticed him separate from defenders down the field a few times in the middle of the season only to be overthrown by his QB, so he and Philip Rivers just needed to get on the same page.
Patience is form of action
I think it’s fair to say that patience was needed more than ever in 2020, especially with the rookie RBs and players working in new offenses, with new QBs, etc. Sometimes it’s really hard to be patient with your players, but I’ve found that the higher the fantasy football IQ an owner has, the more patience is needed.
One of the biggest mistakes I made this year was drafting George Kittle in the league that’s most important to me, a 14-team PPR league. I have an entire lesson based on Kittle below, but this lesson is about what I did after Kittle got hurt in Week 1 with a knee injury.
I knew Kittle was risky, but I was looking for a high-impact player, and the dominant RBs/WRs were already off the board early in the third round, so with QB being so deep I opted for Kittle with the 30th pick of the draft (after going RB-WR with picks 2 and 27). But once he got hurt in the opener, I had to make a move on the waiver wire heading into Week 2, and I was looking for anyone I thought had a chance to be a high-end producer. The pickings were slim in a larger, competitive league, so since I saw something potentially special in Logan Thomas, I submitted an aggressive bid of 27% of my season-long budget, and I got him. I told the story on the radio that week how I literally had a vision of Thomas balling out in the second half of the season, and I was right to pay a hefty price for Thomas due to what I saw from him in Week 1 and my skepticism surrounding Kittle’s ability to suit up.
Unfortunately, after Thomas put up only 10/69/0 in his next four games, including performances of just 1/8/0 and 1/4/0, I felt like I had to find a better option, and I cut him — after all, this was a large league with only six bench spots, and one of those spots was taken up by Kittle. I had also lost my #1 pick Saquon Barkley in this league, so I traded for Chris Carson and then immediately had to use roster spots on his handcuff(s). I was definitely limited by the small bench and the injury problems that took up 2-3 of those bench spots, but I was kicking myself most of the fall for giving up on Thomas, who was the TE3 from Week 6 on and was third in TE catches and yardage and tied for fourth with 5 TDs.
Thomas was drafted in 2014, but as a QB, and heading into the season he had only 38 catches on his NFL resume. He made a couple of plays late in 2019 in Detroit, but Washington was a new team, so he was almost like a rookie this past season, meaning he needed some time to get going. That also meant that I needed to be patient.
Instinctually, I was correct to gravitate to Thomas after Week 1, but my impatience took over. I should have listened to my instincts more in terms of why I paid such a hefty price for Thomas in the first place, and I should have realized that patience was important for the former NFL QB turned TE.
If your instincts end up being wrong, they may eventually be right
When it comes to making fantasy recommendations, I just want to get them right, and I don’t care how I do it. I arrive at my recommendations by considering all factors involved, including stats, inside info, input from others, and more to form an opinion. I’ve been at this a long time and have learned hundreds of lessons over the years, so my gut feelings are usually on the right track, especially since a “gut feeling” for me is not a random guess, but a very educated one.
Of course, I’m wrong about players every year, and it’s often because I push players a year too early. And apparently, sometimes I’m a year too early in terms of not being sold on a player. I said for most of the fall that the Lamar Jackson we were seeing in 2020 was the exact Lamar I thought we’d see … but in 2019. I beat myself up about not giving Lamar a lot of love and pushing him hard as a fantasy pick in ‘19 (and that was a wise thing to do no matter what), but after the 2020 season ended, I went back to check on my projection for Jackson from two years ago to compare it to his 2020 production, and the numbers were insanely close.
I had Lamar in 2019 with 346.3 FP, which was only .5 points off his 2020 total of 345.8. So Lamar in 2020 was who I thought he’d be, only I thought he would be that guy in 2019. I’m sorry for ranking Lamar’s top wideout Marquise Brown as the WR26 on the season, which looked like a horrible call in November. But at season’s end, he was WR36, which isn’t bad. In his final six games, Brown was WR13 in scoring and WR20 in PPG. It’s actually possible in this business to be wrong and also right within the same season (I am taking the “L” on Brown, for the record).
The only thing worse than getting a player wrong one year is overcorrecting and/or overselling the player the next year only to see your initial gut feeling come to the forefront, so I’m glad that I wasn’t pushing Lamar this past summer as a good pick. But it would have been nice to have the balls to list him as overvalued and to preach caution with him. Back in 2018, I wasn’t really feeling Kerryon Johnson as a great prospect, but the Lions got my attention when they used a second-round pick on him. And Kerryon got my attention by playing well his rookie season. So I chalked it up to a misevaluation and drafted Kerryon in the second round of a 14-team startup dynasty league the summer of 2019. As you can guess, it hasn’t gone well. In retrospect, Kerryon’s showing as a rookie wasn’t exactly commensurate with the draft capital I used on him, so I wish I leaned more on my initial scouting of the player.
With Todd Gurley this past year, I thought people were making a big mistake investing a third round pick on him, and I wanted nothing to do with him anywhere near his ADP of around 30. And then the season started and he scored 2 TDs in Week 1, so I advised people to trade him right then and there. It was frustrating seeing him score in seven of his first nine games, especially since I advised to trade him several times the first two months of the season, and I was kinda wrong for doing so. But then I was eventually right, as Gurley ended the season in pitiful fashion as the RB66 in his final six games. He was just slightly more productive than I was.
Ironically, I’m usually a year too early on a breakout player, but in this case I was a year too early in terms of expecting Lamar to take his lumps. So I will keep this lesson in mind when handicapping a guy like Justin Herbert this year. Herbert’s play did level off in the second half of the season, and with 15 games of film on Herbert available for his opponents to study, I would not be surprised at all if he took a small step back in 2021.
Programmed QBs who don’t run are annoying
Some of them are actually quite good at football, but from my fantasy perspective, they can be very annoying.
I’ve been on the whole running QB thing for a long time, like most, and I’ve almost always given them the benefit of the doubt for fantasy because their running is a cheat code. I’ve also been railing against the non-running QBs, who often need planetary alignment in order to compete with the elite at the position (most of whom run). In many cases, a non-running QB will need some serious volume to come through for fantasy, as was the case with Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger, who were 1-2-3 in the league in pass attempts and all finished as top-14 producers with Brady and Ryan in the top-12.
If a QB doesn’t throw the ball a lot in today’s NFL, he’s probably in a run-based offense, which is a blessing and a curse. It can be a blessing because working in a run-heavy offense with quality talent at RB can really set a QB up for success against base defenses, on play action, and against heavy boxes loaded to stop the run. Remember when everyone thought Ryan Tannehill stunk?
On the other hand, it’s usually not a good thing for fantasy when the QB is handing the ball off a ton and only throwing the rock 28-30 times a game. These types of QBs need to be very efficient, and even if they are, they are also tough to predict on a weekly basis because they are usually more TD-dependent than other QBs who are adding to their fantasy numbers with their legs and/or with volume.
A good example was Kirk Cousins, who dropped 35 TD passes on the rest of the league in 2020 (sixth-best), yet few seemed to care. In fact, most people still think he stinks despite Cousins averaging 30 TD passes a season in three seasons in Minnesota while completing a strong 69% of his passes for a very good 7.8 YPA (8.2 the last two seasons). Cousins also tossed multiple TD passes in 12 of his 16 games, which was impressive. But he also put up only 113/0 passing on 11-of-26 passing in Week 2, 161/1 on 11-of-14 passing in Week 8, and had a few other so-so games for fantasy. Cousins' attempts were up in the second half of the season, so he was more reliable for fantasy than I expected, but he was still hard to trust because we were still counting on increased volume and/or TDs, which Dalvin Cook and their running game could bogart any given week.
Tannehill was very similar, and he hit multiple TDs in 13-of-16 games, which was impressive. Tannehill was tied for seventh in the league in TD passes with 33, and he was tied for fifth in the league with 7 rushing TDs. Tannehill wasn’t as efficient as he was in 2019, but he made up for that with his rushing, especially his rushing TDs, yet he was still tough to project every week because he threw the ball 30 or fewer times in 11 of his 16 games. I couldn’t truly count on his rushing production like I could trust other running QBs, as evidenced by the fact that Tannehill had more rushing TDs last year than his first six seasons combined. My weekly rankings are based on my actual projections, and if a guy is only throwing the ball 28.5 times a week, it’s hard to give him a ton of love, at least in terms of passing yardage.
There were others who fit the profile and were a lot more frustrating, like Baker Mayfield, who failed to hit 200 yards passing in 7 of his 16 games and was only a top-12 fantasy QB five times and was outside the top-25 five times. In fact, Baker was a top-12 fantasy QB the same number of times as Carson Wentz, whose 2020 season was a nightmare. Of course, the planets aligned for him for a spell down the stretch, and Baker was the QB5 for the fantasy playoffs in Weeks 13-16 with a healthy 23.1 FPG. That’s a perfect example of the frustration these types bring me on a week-to-week basis. We know they can do big things any given week, but we also know they can mostly hand the ball off on any given Sunday and come up short for fantasy. Derek Carr was maddening like this, too. Carr was a top-12 QB seven times, not bad, but he also posted 1 TD or fewer six times, bad. Carr was only outside the top-24 at QB in a given week three times, which was good, but he was still unreliable.
There are common denominators that link these players, most obviously them being in run-based offenses with a high-quality RB toting the rock, but these guys are also managed and programmed, so they’re not running around and slinging it like Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes, and since most of them don’t run much, they need a multitude of TDs to come through for fantasy.
This isn’t exactly a lesson learned — more so something that just annoys me — but it’s worth noting that even though guys like Cousins and Tannehill combined for a whopping 76 TDs in 2020, they’re still not exactly desirable for fantasy, and their offensive identities could end up hurting them any given season or week.
If I were to build the perfect fantasy QB, his profile would be different than Cousins or Tannehill. He would be a guy whose offense asks him to throw the ball more than most, and also a player who also runs. I’d love to have a QB who’s well within the top-10 in terms of passing and rushing attempts. Kyler Murray, DeShaun Watson, Russell Wilson, and even Patrick Mahomes fit the bill. But no one was more impactful and a better example of the perfect fantasy QB than a guy I tabbed as my #1 QB target in 2020: Josh Allen. The only thing Allen is programmed for is to pile up fantasy points with his arm and his legs, and he can do it within or outside of structure. Allen is perfect, and that’s why he was 2020’s QB1.
Self preservation is underrated
Anyone old enough to remember the Pittsburgh Steeler dynasty in the 1970s knows that RB Franco Harris was a great back, a Hall of Famer, but I distinctly remember being annoyed at the tail end of his career because Franco was the king of running out of bounds to avoid getting hit. That was a long-lasting negative impression I had for decades with Harris.
But I’m over it now because I drafted George Kittle in my most important league this past year.
Kittle’s certainly a unique breed of player, and while it’s cool to watch him play the TE position like a LB or hard-hitting safety, it’s not cool to see one of your skill players attacking opponents like he’s Brian Urlacher or putting his body on the line like he’s Ronnie Lott trying to break up pass in the most important game of his life. Kittle has a ton of ability, but despite being able to bounce back quickly from injury, we didn’t see much of his talents on display in 2020 because he lacked the most important ability of all: availability. Kittle was able to play in 45 of 48 possible games his first three seasons, and while he’s been dinged up a ton, I felt secure enough to take him 30th overall this past summer after seeing him play in 30-of-32 games in 2018-2019 with two 1000-yard seasons those two years. When Kittle signed his 5-year contract extension in August, I thought the vibes were good.
And then Kittle talked about how, with a new deal done, he could focus on football and basically not worry about getting hurt. In other words, since he got paid, he seemingly felt like he could play with even more reckless abandon. That’s great for him, but it’s not great for fantasy players or the 49ers hoping to get, you know, production out of the guy. Kittle was as aggressive as ever when he played in 2020, and his luck quickly ran out, as he suffered two injuries (knee, foot) that cost him half the season. Granted, a more mortal wouldn’t have been able to return so quickly from his foot injury suffered in Week 8, but after seeing him go down midseason after losing him for multiple games earlier in the season, Kittle was Fool’s Gold. I couldn’t even use him in Week 16 because my season was already over. So until I find a PPPB league to play in (point-per-pancake-block), I’m out on Kittle for fantasy. Good luck, everybody else.
I can’t find many other great examples in the league who can compare to Kittle, but there are some players whose self-preservation qualities are lacking, such as running QBs like Josh Allen (who’s reckless abandon is Kittle-esqe) and Lamar Jackson as well as a guy like Deebo Samuel, who plays WR like a RB. I must also say here that I’m very concerned about Saquon Barkley’s ability to play his style of football. I’m actually wondering if the guy works out too much and it’s to his detriment. 2021 will be very revealing for Barkley because, if he misses a lot of time again and/or suffers a serious injury, it’s panic time. I’m also less of a fan of Josh Jacobs after 2020, in part because the guy takes on a ton of contact.
We certainly don’t want to see our guys run out of bounds like Franco late in his career, but the guy is in the Hall of Fame in part because he was available. As for Kittle and other lunatics like him who are out there seeking out contact, God love ‘em. I look forward to watching them play — while in someone else’s fantasy lineup.
QBs need their house in order
And Carson Wentz’s house in Philly, well, it was a mess. It’s certainly fair to say his poor ball location was a major issue in 2020, as was his overall mental capacity to perform at a high level, since he didn’t seem to be getting a clear picture when he went back to pass, and he failed at times to isolate plays on the field that were there to be made.
In a year or two, we may look back at Wentz and know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that he was the problem with the Eagles offense, but I doubt it. Wentz has regressed, for sure, but the guy in charge of their terrible Eagles offense this past year is currently unemployed, so it’s hard for me to pin Wentz’s struggles on him alone. I can’t say for sure that Wentz is going to scratch and claw his way out of the hole he’s dug for himself, but I can say with solid certainty that I know how his downfall started. The problems started with their OL, which has dealt with myriad injury issues the last two seasons. That’s bad for any QB, but couple that with a dearth of talent at receiver (especially his incredibly lame WR group in 2019 and the corpse of Zach Ertz in 2020), and craptastic play-calling and design, and it’s a recipe for disaster. Playing in one of the toughest cities in the country and for a fanbase that adores Nick Foles, who’s played like five good games the last seven years, didn’t help.
I’ve been fortunate enough to have in-depth conversations about the position with numerous current and former NFL QBs, and what’s stood out to me in these conversations has been how dependent these guys are on everything around them. Ten years ago I absolutely loved Sam Bradford, who is a great example of the fragility of some QBs and their levels of play. Bradford had injury problems for sure, but no one will look back at his career and think much of it, yet he was brilliant in spots. Midway through Bradford’s career, I had a chance to hang out with former NFL QB AJ Feeley, and I spoke with him for over an hour about Bradford, who Feeley backed up for two seasons with the Rams. Feeley outlined all the problems that prohibited Bradford — his OL, play calling, etc. — and it was easy to understand why he didn’t pan out. It’s easy for fans to say things like “no excuses,” but sometimes a players’ excuses are legitimate and actually explain why he doesn’t get it done.
We will soon find out if Wentz is ruined and/or loses his passion for football, as Bradford seemingly did, and if Wentz is an afterthought in a couple of years then his skeptics right now will be proven right. It’s certainly fair to be highly skeptical of Wentz right now. I have definite concerns with his physical and mental condition, along with lingering concerns about his mechanics worsening as he’s navigated through a tough situation with the Eagles the last two seasons. But I do believe those concerns can be alleviated with a better environment, including better coaching, protection, and support from the other 10 players on the field with him. It’s more than the old “change of scenery,” but those address changes can help. All things considered, I do believe all or most of the issues that brought Wentz down in Philadelphia can be fixed in Indy, and if that’s the case NFL fans will be reminded that Wentz is actually one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the league.
Some QBs elevate everyone around them, like Tom Brady, but they are rare. Some QBs are capable of playing at a high level, but they have a smaller margin for error than some truly special guys. Most of the QBs fantasy players draft or consider drafting have some issues, like Derek Carr, who’s talented, has played well at times, but is just missing that certain je ne sais quoi that helps others at his position stand out among their peers. Some, like Drew Lock, just don’t have it. Lock was terrible in his second season, and I have no confidence in him at this point. I’ve at least seen Wentz ball out in the NFL, so until I see him struggle in a good situation, I’m not ready to write him off.
Complementary RBs are a dime a dozen
I apparently have to remind myself of this lesson every year because I get sucked into these types often, especially when I think the player is impressive and his cost is low. But more often than not, the cost on a Tarik Cohen type player is relatively low for a reason: he’s getting the smaller chuck of the RB touches than the team’s starter. He’s probably also game-script dependent, which is tough to handicap on a weekly basis. In addition, we’ve learned over the years that one of best tests of an offensive coordinator’s savvy is how well they use complimentary backs like Cohen. Some offensive coaches struggle with this, so a player like Cohen’s touches are not maximized, and sometimes the coach can render a satelite player like Cohen useless with poor play design, play calling, etc. Norv Turner, for example, was a good coach for decades, but for whatever reason he failed to get the most out of Darren Sproles in San Diego.
Cohen did get hurt in Week 3 and his numbers probably would have been decent had he played the whole season, but there’s a big difference between “decent” over the course of a full season and “valuable” on a week-to-week basis. Cohen was the opposite of valuable Weeks 1-3 with just 17.5 FP total in just under 12 quarters of football. Even when the play caller is great, like Josh McDaniels in New England, it doesn’t guarantee much. The planets did align for James White back in 2018 with 7.6 targets/game, just under 6.0 carries per game, and an unusually high TD total of 12. Of course, as great as he is in his role, he hasn’t come remotely close to his ‘18 production the last two seasons. Complementary guys like White can be a pain to deal with, even if they are great in their role, because they do have a role, and you have to give them a fair number of touches in the running and passing game. Most of the time, they’ll land fairly high in my rankings because I’m comparing them to a bunch of players with no set role, so their projected touch totals are low.
But White in 2019 was a great example of the challenges with these types. Coming off his big 2018 season, my projection for him was the following: 65/275/2 rushing and 78/620/4 receiving, good for 203.5 FP. His actual numbers were almost exactly the same: 67/263/1 rushing and 72/645/5 receiving, good for 201.2 FP. I had him as RB26, and he was actually RB18, so his standing was even better than I projected it to be. I really couldn’t be much more accurate with my projection, and White only missed it by 2.3 measly points over the course of a full season. But I didn’t even know I was so close to his projections in 2019 until I looked into it for this article. The fact is, I didn’t care about my accurate projection and neither did anyone else because White was just “OK” for fantasy — because you have to win weeks in fantasy football, and White wasn’t contributing enough on a weekly basis to do that.
We did see guys like Nyheim Hines and JD McKissic finish high on the RB leaderboard (top-20 RBs on the season), but those two were Waiver Wire pickups, and at best (in Hines’ case) very late draft picks. There will be guys like Hines and McKissic on the WW this year, so there’s no sense in paying a premium for a complimentary type who won’t likely be the reason you lose, but could certainly prevent you from winning. I simply want to draft as many bellcow types as possible early in my drafts so I don’t even have to consider the Cohens of the world in the 7th or 8th round. If Cohen or White slip and actually present some value for depth, that’s fine.
I’m not crossing these #2 RBs off my cheat sheet going forward, but it’s going to take a lot for me to give love to the Whites of the world, since drafting them, while usually “safe,” is a boring route most of the time. The great exception this year was Kareem Hunt, who I did push hard this summer, but who is an atypical backup or second back in that he was a recent starter, and is a top-10 talent at the position. My projection for Hunt wasn’t amazingly accurate, since he did more in the running game and less in the passing game than I expected, but my final projected point total was fairly close (194.5 FP vs. the 218.5 he posted).
I’m fine backing a guy like Hunt, who also had massive upside if Nick Chubb missed a lot of time. Chubb did miss five games, and while Hunt did underwhelm a little in that span, he was a top-20 back and a solid RB2 with 14.7 FPG. Heck, for the whole season Hunt was the RB10 in total PPR scoring on the season, so he’s an exception.
At the end of the day, while guys like White can capture lightning in a jar and produce RB2 totals in a given season, their upsides are probably limited if they’re locked into a complementary role even if the top back is out, so they’re a dime a dozen.
Some college coaches sending players to the NFL may stink
The regular season has been over for nearly six weeks, yet I’m still wondering about some things. Like how in the heck did Justin Herbert put such inconsistent play on tape last year and then enter the NFL at the worst possible time and ball out from the jump? How did Josh Allen go from being a career 56% completion rate guy in college to fifth this year in the NFL in completion percentage among all passers with at least 300 attempts? Heck, for that matter, how in the world did Alvin Kamara play behind Jalen Hurd at Tennessee for two seasons? How did Dak Prescott slip to the fourth round of the 2016 NFL draft?
I can go on and on with examples, but at the risk of being overly simplistic, I think the answer is some of the college coaches who are sending players into the NFL stink, at least in terms of developing players, because they’re trying to win games at the college level and not necessarily prep guys for the pros.
It used to be that most rookies sat on the bench for a year or two before starting, especially the QBs, but that’s no longer the case and most rookies play a lot their first season. In this era of instant gratification, most now expect their young QBs to play like five-year veterans right away, but that’s just not realistic. Then again, it happened for Herbert, despite his shaky 2019 college tape, so you have to question his coaching staff or at least his team’s system/identity.
It may have been easy for some this past summer to proclaim that Allen had already settled into being he player he will always be after two full seasons as an NFL starter, but as Allen showed us in 2020, you’re not the finished product until you’ve been coached up in the NFL for, ideally, two-plus seasons.
Also:
Russell Wilson is not a very good cook
Wilson fascinates me because he’s so special in so many ways, but he’s also overrated. Ultimately, I think this explains why he’s so streaky; he’s an incredible gamer, and he throws a great deep ball, but his type of play is hard to sustain over the course of a full season. I reacted to the “Let Russ Cook” hype to an extent, as I boosted his projected pass attempts up to 535 this past summer, and I was relatively close (558), plus I got his yardage total almost exactly right (4275 projected, 4212 logged). But I didn’t push him as a great target because his cost had risen about 30 picks from the year before. I loved him in 2019, and he was great for two-thirds of the season, and then he flattened out and ended up being the reason I got bounced in the championship game. I was definitely worried most of the 2020 season that I missed out on a dream fantasy season from Wilson, and the guy did have 42 freaking TDs. But yet again, Wilson came up small when it mattered most. According to Wilson, they played scared and took their foot off the gas pedal, but they had to balance out their offense to protect their defense, and the fact is teams started taking away the deep ball. Wilson isn’t much of a checkdown guy and is too often running around looking for the big play, so unless they make some dramatic moves to get him more weapons, like a top TE and a better WR3, I think it’s fair to say that he shouldn’t be fitted for a chef coat. The good news for 2021 is that his ADP will likely drop, and per our friends at Bestball10s.com, he’s only the ninth QB off the board in early 2021 drafts, with an ADP of 90-95. That’s a lot better than his 2020 ADP of around 60.
Odell Beckham is a mirage
I’ve gotten mixed reports on OBJ over the years, and while some people I’ve talked to who know him say he’s a solid guy, based on conversation with others, he strikes me as a lost cause in terms of his football career, and I’ve said this dating back to early 2019. I’ve always recognized his incredible talent, and no one can rule out a resurgence in the near future, but to compare him at 28 years old, or even at 25 years old, to some of the all-time greats, it’s sad. Jerry Rice was better at 40 (92/1211/7) than Beckham was at 26, for example. Beckham is obviously more dynamic than Rice was at 40, but Rice was better. Beckham seems incapable of avoiding serious injury at this point, and he’s somehow made Baker Mayfield worse the last two years. It’s a little infuriating to me because he’s so gifted, but I don’t think we’ll see this guy on the field much in his 30s. Goodbye, Odell.
When a team ignores needs on defense in the draft and goes BPA with a skill guy, pay attention
Among the top QBs this year, Dak Prescott was the only one I was interested in at his cost. Dak generally cost a fifth round pick, but I thought he was worth it due to the addition of CeeDee Lamb, and boy was he ever. It was a perfect pick for fantasy because it put Lamb in a great spot in the slot alongside two really good outside WRs. The Lamb pick not only gave Dak an embarrassment of riches at receiver, it also cost the defense, since they had plenty of needs there (like at CB). The defense was bad, so Dak was throwing a ton and piling up the digits like we’ve never seen before. Excluding Week 5, the week he got hurt, Dak after the first quarter of the season was on pace to put the ball up 804 times! At that pace, he would have posted 6,760 yards and 48 TDs! The attempts and yardage would have leveled off, but Dak was just about a lock to finish at the QB1, and a lot of that was the addition of Lamb. So as long as there’s some continuity involved like there was in Dallas with all their key offensive pieces other than Lamb around the year before, if a team can’t resist a skill player and drafts like it’s fantasy draft, you want to get involved with that team and their players.
Let’s stop giving love to the old guys at RB
My thing at the RB position this year more so than others, was that I was all about running backs who’s best football was clearly still in front of them. I made a couple exceptions, like Melvin Gordon, who I endorsed as a solid 3rd round pick. (I had Gordon as the RB14 on the season and he was actually the RB15, so I call him a bad call.) But otherwise, I was out on any aging RB and/or anyone who “felt” old to me like Leonard Fournette and James Conner. Most fantasy players get this basic point, yet guys like Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell were still being drafted too early in the 3rd-5th rounds. Some lesser vets were being overdrafted later than that. Obviously, some of my youthful RB targets fell short of my expectations, like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Joe Mixon, and Miles Sanders. But it’s a young man’s position, so I’ll continue to be an ageist and will take my chances with the young guys.
RBs need time in Sean McVay’s offense
Nothing earth-shattering here, and hopefully for Cam Akers owners it’s a moot point for a while, but the next time the Rams draft a RB who’s on the fantasy radar, let’s not forget that Darrell Henderson was a lost cause in his rookie 2019 season, yet looked like a very solid starter for most of 2020. Akers was also slow off the mark this past year, so I think it’s pretty clear that RBs need some seasoning before they’re ready to excel in McVay’s system.
I’m still wary of RBs who come out of nowhere and excel
I’ve covered this lesson quite a few times the last few years, and we got more proof of this potential pitfall again in 2020. Nothing against Raheem Mostert, who was awesome in 2019, but he was my poster child this past season. Mostert’s ADP was 45 this summer, which is gross. The “RBs Don’t Matter” people do have a point in that producing at this position is usually all about opportunity, and in 2019 we saw Mostert, released by an NFL team too many times to count, perform like a second-round NFL draft pick. But teams are always looking to upgrade the position, or at least add in some serious competition, so I never assume a journeyman type like Mostert is going to duplicate or build upon his surprising showing. Even worse, these guys tend to get a lot more love in drafts the following season, like Mostert did this summer. Sure, Mostert got hurt, but given how impressive Jeff Wilson was down the stretch, Mostert was probably looking at some serious competition for snaps and touches. The obvious candidate to be overvalued in 2021 is James Robinson. Robinson truly came out of nowhere, and he was great, but at the very least, I’d expect them to add another back who can handle a solid complementary role, and that alone could cause him to be overvalued. I’m also not assuming guys like Myles Gaskin and JD McKissic will continue producing incredible PPR numbers this coming year.
