For fantasy purposes, it’s better to have players in games that feature teams that play fast and run a lot of plays. Why? Faster paced offenses drain less clock in between plays which gives the game more volume. And more volume = more opportunities.
In this weekly column, I’ll highlight a few games that project for more pace and plays and some spots that could underwhelm.
Note: All pace/play stats are sourced from RotoViz and cover the last eight weeks (Week 5-12).
Fast-paced games
Cardinals (1st in pace) vs. Rams (15th)
This slate is filled with a lot of mediocre to bad games from a pace perspective, but this matchup is one of the few spots that could be a shootout. HC Kliff Kingsbury has been using pace to his advantage for two years now and the Cardinals are attacking at a lightning fast clip right now. The Cards’ are getting a play off every 24.5 seconds, which is a full second faster than the next closest team (Broncos — 25.7). Arizona uses no-huddle on 30% of their offensive snaps — which also leads the league — while Los Angeles should keep the pace up because they are finally starting to play faster. Over the last eight weeks, the Rams have moved up to slightly above average in pace, they rank fourth in plays (73.1 per game), and are using no-huddle more often (15%; tied for third-most). Even though divisional matchups late in the season tend to be slightly lower scoring, Vegas remains confident that this game should be relatively high scoring. The over/under is pegged at 48.5, fifth-highest on the Week 13 slate.
Broncos (2nd in pace) vs. Chiefs (7th)
After last week’s disaster because of COVID protocols, the Broncos will get Drew Lock back this week in time to play on Sunday night against the Chiefs. Which is great news because this is really the only sure-fire spot we have this week where both offenses play extremely fast. The Broncos are quietly the second quickest team in the league and they’ll certainly have to keep up that pace to score with the Chiefs. HC Andy Reid has basically scrapped the run game in recent weeks, instead opting to let Patrick Mahomes chuck it all over the field. And who can blame him? Over the last four weeks, Kansas City has gone a ridiculous 73% pass-heavy and it has resulted in Mahomes throwing for 399.5 yards on 45.3 attempts per game. That’ll work. Vegas has already ticked the over/under in this game up 2.5 points and the total is currently 50.5 points (fourth-highest on the slate).
A note on Jaguars (23rd in pace) vs. Vikings (26th)
While this matchup looks bad on paper, we have to be careful to not overweigh the importance of pace when two bad defenses meet. Even though the Vikings play slow on offense, it really hasn’t mattered too much for the overall flow of their games. In fact, nine of the Vikings’ 11 games have combined for at least 50 points and this matchup certainly has shootout potential because the Jaguars’ defense is so worthless. Jacksonville has been a giving tree of fantasy points all season long, ranking dead last in yards per play allowed (6.4) and second from last in points allowed per drive (2.7). Vegas is giving the Vikings a ton of respect in this spot, juicing up their implied point total to 31.5 points. That rivals only the Chiefs (32.3) for highest on the slate.
Slow-paced games
Raiders (30th in pace) vs. Jets (24th)
I think it’s absolutely hilarious (and absolutely the right decision) that the Jets are letting Adam Gase finish out this season. God forbid they let Gregg Williams take over for the final five games and accidentally win a few by accident. Honestly, any team that wants to tank for a season in the future should just hire Gase. You’d be guaranteed at least a top-5 pick! New York is going to continue their tank job this week against what should be an angry Raiders team after they got completely destroyed against the Falcons a week ago. You can’t dream up a better bounceback spot than to face the Jets after a brutal loss. Speaking of brutal, this game does not set up well at all for fantasy. The Raiders and Jets are in the bottom-10 teams in terms of pace and it’s resulting low-volume attacks. Vegas ranks 26th in plays per game over the last eight weeks (66.0) while New York is dead last (60.9 plays). Plus, both Gase and Jon Gruden are running a ton and it should further zap any potential juice in this matchup. If the books are right and Vegas commands a lead throughout — they are 7.5-point favorites — we’ll see plenty of running on both sides of the ball. The Raiders are the league’s third-most run-heavy team when leading while Gase isn’t even trying to come back from deficits as his Jets are the seventh-most run-heavy team when trailing.
Bengals (22nd in pace last week) vs. Dolphins (20th)
Unsurprisingly, the Bengals really simplified their attack in the first game without Joe Burrow. With Brandon Allen under center, HC Zac Taylor slowed down the offense to a near snail’s pace as the Bengals only got off 45 plays on offense. Only the Kendall Hinton-led Broncos ran fewer plays last week (43). Combined with what has been a very slow Dolphin attack all year, this game doesn’t feature much in the way of fantasy options. Vegas is very low on this game as well. The Bengals implied scoring total is just 15.5 points, which is the lowest on the slate by far. This game will be even worse off from a pace perspective if Miami goes back to Tua Tagovailoa as well. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Dolphins are averaging 0.04 expected points per play with Ryan Fitzpatrick on the field and -0.11 EPA per play without him. This means that over the course of a game, the Dolphins offense is better by about a 9.5 point margin with Fitzmagic.
