Fantasy Fallout: Gronk Reunites with Brady

Blockbuster Alert: The Patriots have traded Rob Gronkowski and a seventh-round pick to the Buccaneers for a fourth-round pick.

In just one offseason, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have added arguably the greatest tight end of all-time to pair with the (less arguably) greatest quarterback of all-time.

Alright, sure…Gronkowski hasn’t played football in over a year. Even so, we’re talking about an absolute legend. Elsewhere I’ve argued, Gronkowski wasn’t merely just “one of the greatest tight ends of all time,” but maybe also the most valuable offensive player (non-quarterback) of our generation. From a fantasy perspective, his dominance was self-evident, owning the position’s best-ever fantasy season by fantasy points per game, along with four more seasons in the top-16. No one else came close.

Even hobbled and at his worst in 2018, Gronkowski still finished as a top-10 TE in PFF grade (after eight-straight No. 1-overall finishes) and a top-10 TE in fantasy points per game (a year after finishing first at the position). Gronkowski has always dealt with a litany of injuries, but whenever he was actually active and on the field, he offered a positional advantage that was rivaled only by names like Christian McCaffrey, Antonio Brown, and peak Le’Veon Bell.

If you throw out 2018, when Gronkowski was clearly playing hurt, and the two games in 2016 during which he was held to fewer than 15 snaps (again playing hurt through most of the season), Gronkowski has averaged at least 16.0 fantasy points per game, and finished first or second at the position in fantasy points per game in every year since his sophomore season. Over this span, he averaged 17.9 fantasy points per game, which, for perspective, would have led the position by +1.9 last year. Among wide receivers it would have ranked fourth-overall.

So, where should we draft him?

The key questions are this:

How much does Gronkowski have left in the tank? He’s taken a year off to party and shill CBD gummies. He looks skinny. Is he even healthy? He clearly looked like he lost a step in 2018.

I don’t have much to base this on, but I’d be confident those concerns are being overstated. I don’t think he would have returned if he wasn’t close to 100% certain he could come back and perform at a Gronkian-level. He’s an elite athlete and a weight room legend. Therefore, I’m pretty sure he’s going to prepare for the season like an elite competitor would. In fact, according to Ian Rapoport, he had already started “putting on weight for a return to football.” He’s exactly the same age as Travis Kelce, and between four and seven years younger than Jason Witten and Greg Olsen. Plus, it’s even possible that a year removed from football means this is the healthiest we’ve ever seen Gronkowski.

Will there be any room for fantasy relevance saddled behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the target totem pole? Can he rise above the “Bruce Arians hates tight ends” narrative? Are we even sure he’d earn playing time over O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate?

To answer the last question first: yes. (Expect Howard to be traded.)

Moving on, the “Arians hates tight ends” narrative can’t be written off as easily. In 15 seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator, only once has an Arians-coached tight end averaged double-digit fantasy points per game (Heath Miller in 2009). Granted, he’s never had a tight end like Gronk (for whom he traded), but he’s also had more than a few competent tight ends who were utterly useless for fantasy.

Saddled behind two 1,000-yard wide receivers, Gronkowski probably won’t command his typical 7.5 to 9.5 targets per game, but then again, he doesn’t really need to. Remember, Gronkowski has a long way to fall from “greatest fantasy tight end ever” (17.9 fantasy points per game) to even “mid-range TE1” (13.5 fantasy points per game). And no matter what, Gronkowski should remain a force in the end zone. He leads all tight ends and ranks top-five among all players all-time in career receiving touchdowns per game, with a very nice 0.69. He’s also the most efficient fantasy player of the past decade. Per season, Gronkowski averaged 43.0 fantasy points and 2.7 touchdowns above his volume-based expectation, which easily leads all players at all positions.

As it stands, I have Gronkowski tentatively ranked as my No. 7 tight end. He’s firmly behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and Zach Ertz, nestled into a tier alongside Darren Waller, Evan Engram, and Hunter Henry.

Finally, based on this move, I’m bumping up Tom Brady a few spots in my rankings. Brady now ranks ninth among quarterbacks, behind Carson Wentz and Josh Allen, at the top of a tier that consists of Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees.

Even if Gronkowski is just the third receiver on this team, and isn’t quite the Gronk of old, this signing cannot be understated. Throughout his career, Brady’s splits with and without Gronkowski are even more egregious than Eli Manning’s splits with and without Odell Beckham Jr. When Gronkowski wasn’t on the field, Brady looked like an entirely different quarterback, and not a particularly good one.

Tom Brady [2010-2019, Postseason Included] (Per Game Averages)

Gronkowski and Brady don’t just have an already established rapport (something that is crucial and often overlooked when building projections), they have arguably the greatest rapport of all-time. Throughout his career, Brady has averaged a 129.3 passer rating when targeting Gronkowski, the best of any quarterback-to-receiver tandem since at least 2007, per PFF. When targeting all other receivers over that span, his rating dropped to 97.3, per PFF. When Gronkowski was inactive, the results were even more dramatic (see above).

And, let’s not forget Gronkowski’s arrival improves the offense on multiple levels. In addition to being one of the NFL’s most efficient receivers ever, Gronkowski is also a phenomenal blocker; he’s ranked as one of PFF’s top-seven highest-graded blocking tight ends in six of nine career seasons.