The Fantasy Points staff welcomed NFL Films legend Greg Cosell and NFL Insider Adam Caplan to talk about the AFC East as part of our Virtual Pow-wow Series. We highly encourage you to check out the entire conversation by accessing our Livestream archives or our YouTube page.
Cosell and Caplan joined John Hansen and company to break down the AFC East from front to back to help us get a deeper understanding of every roster heading into the summer. Hansen has been holding these closed-door meetings with Cosell and Caplan for the last 15 years. The Fantasy Points staff is proud to let the public peek behind the curtain for the first time ever during these exclusive Livestreams! Here are the notes I compiled from the AFC East meeting, and I included my biggest fantasy takeaways for each team.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills offense is built on the run game and everything comes off the running game. Josh Allen needs to improve as a deep thrower this season. Allen has ranked near the bottom on deep passes the last two years despite his big arm. Can’t teach accuracy.
The Bills brought in Stefon Diggs to help him. He was one of the best deep receivers last season playing with Kirk Cousins.
The Bills could use more Empty sets to use Allen even more as a runner. Using Empty sets spreads the defense out to let him run more. It could also help him as a passer if he gets more one-on-one throws if opposing teams have to account for his running with extra defenders. The Bills used heavy 11-personnel in the second half of last season and started using more no-huddle.
The Bills drafted two big receivers in Gabriel Davis and Isaiah Hodgins. They wanted to get a little longer and to get some receivers with big catch radiuses. Davis always lined up on the left side, a little straight-linish. Hodgins and Davis will compete for the backup X spot.
Devin Singletary is an elusive runner and Zack Moss is a contact runner. Moss will be the “hard yards” guy. He’s going to get a lot of snaps.
Their O-line is a work in progress but it's a solid group. The O-line won’t be the downfall of this team
They want to expand Dawson Knox’s role, but Adam says he’ll be a 50-catch guy and not a 70-catch guy. Tyler Kroft took a pay cut to stick around which means Knox’s role should continue to expand.
The Bills play disciplined defense. They take an execution- based approach, but they add wrinkles to their gameplan every week. Their safeties, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, are underrated. They drive what they do. They can both play in the box and in the back end.
Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways
- We have Josh Allen perfectly ranked as our QB7 as the top option in the third-tier of fantasy QBs. I feel even better about him after our meeting, and there’s a chance he could push to be in the second QB tier (QBs 3-6 are Dak Prescott/Kyler Murray/Russell Wilson/Deshaun Watson). Stefon Diggs should help Allen’s downfield passing, and Allen could somehow run even more this year if they use more Empty sets.
- With that said, I’m still not feeling great about Diggs since Allen has been one of the worst downfield throwers.
Buffalo Bills Livestream Highlights
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa will end up being the starter early. His style of play will help their offensive line, which was terrible last season. He gets the ball out quick and Alabama used a lot of RPOs. Tua is a rhythm and timing passer. Quick passing game
Chan Gailey has worked with every type of QB throughout his career, and he’ll have a rookie and veteran to work with this year. He retired but Brian Flores wanted him and brought him back.
They want to use spread and power-running concepts. They want to run more power and Howard can fill that role. He’s a certain type of back. He needs to come into camp at a great weight. He’s not going to get 20+ carries every week, but he can do it a couple of times a year. The offense won’t run through him.
Matt Breida is the changeup but he has a lot of speed and can get to the perimeter. Howard is the sustainer. After he left Chicago, there was some talk coming out of the Bears organization that he ran with too much finesse. He put those concerns to bed last year in Philly.
They used a lot of resources to address their awful O-line. They upgraded the talent level of the group. Austin Jackson looks the part of a starting left tackle coming out of USC.
Mike Gesicki was very inefficient in yards per route run last season. Gesicki and DeVante Parker benefitted from Preston Williams going down Last year. How are the targets going to be distributed with him back in the fold?
Gesicki is a movement player. He should get meaningful targets. Chan would want to take advantage of him. He’s not an inline TE. Chan will detach him from the formation.
Parker is the quintessential X receiver. Long and athletic and moves like A.J. Green. He caught a ton of slants and passes down the field.
Williams is a fascinating guy. They have a lot of size at receiver. He’s also big and athletic who can win on the outside. Williams had a tremendous training camp last summer. However, he doesn’t have great hands and he has concentration issues. He does have some red flags with his off-the-field concerns, his ACL recovery, and his hands.
Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways
I feel like I need to be a little higher on DeVante Parker after the meeting. Parker is excellent on slant routes, and he’s even said they’re his favorite routes to run. He’s going to be running a ton of them this year. Tua Tagovailoa loves to get the ball out quickly, and Chan Gailey is likely to incorporate RPOs to help Tua’s transition to the league. I think he has a chance to quickly pull ahead of Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki as Tua’s favorite receiver. We currently have Parker as our WR32, but he could see a bump up after our meeting.
Conversely, I think I’m going to back off of Preston Williams a bit. I still like his cheap ADP, but I could see him getting into the doghouse with this new offensive coaching staff if he struggles with drops or if his return from an ACL injury is laborious.
Jordan Howard is the type of fantasy back I typically avoid, but he clearly fits a role the Dolphins want to have in this offense and he has no direct competition for the early-down role.
Miami Dolphins Livestream Highlights
New England Patriots
They must feel good about Jarrett Stidham. Reminded Greg of a “Texas 7-on-7 QB,” which means he’s fundamentally sound across the board. He has a good arm and he’s relatively poised. He played well in the preseason.
Adam thinks the starting QB job is wide open, but Josh McDaniels does like Stidham. Brian Hoyer is a good insurance plan since this is his third time with the Patriots. He knows the offense inside and out. Adam would put his money on Hoyer winning the job but it’s wide open.
Greg thinks they could be an old school team with their current roster. They’ll lean on their defense and their running game. They brought in Dan Vitale to replace James Develin at running back.
They drafted two really intriguing TEs in Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene. Asiasi is a strong receiving prospect and Keene is more of an H-back type.
N’Keal Harry has a high draft capital and flopped last season. It’s a great time to buy low on him but this passing attack isn’t the greatest.
Sony Michel is the #1 back and he’s really cheap right now but this offense is lacking upside potential.
Greg liked Damien Harris coming out. He didn’t get a ton of touches at Alabama. He’s a grinding type back.
Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways
- It’s tough to get a read on the Patriots right now since they’re QB spot is still very much up in the air. Greg thinks they could take a run-heavy approach so Sony Michel and Damien Harris could be small values right now at their low ADPs.
New England Patriots Livestream Highlights
New York Jets
The Jets made a lot of moves along their O-line, including the additions of Connor McGovern and Mekhi Becton. They’ve stabilized this O-line and now they need to establish their running game. Sam Darnold also plays a bit frenetic and a good O-line would help him to slow down his processing.
Greg thinks Le’Veon Bell is still a good back, but he’s evolved into a sustainer/grinder. He’s no longer the big-play back that he was at the start of his career. Bell was near the top of the league in snap rate and he still finished as the RB19. He struggled to force missed tackles last season behind a bad O-line, which was never a problem before. Frank Gore is going to eat into his snaps.
Adam Gase told Greg last off-season that he likes Chris Herndon a lot, and he had big plans for him last season before his suspension and injury. He wanted to detach him from the formation and use him as he did with Julius Thomas in Denver.
Gregg Williams did a good job with a lack of talent. He played a lot of Cover 2 last season to take the pressure off his bad cornerbacks. They’re not good enough to just line up and play. C.J. Mosley was a big loss at the end of last year.
Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways
- Chris Herndon looks like a massive value in drafts right now. Adam Gase had big plans for Herndon last year but his season got derailed before it could even get started. I never know what's going through Gase’s head, but Herndon should get another chance to be a big weapon for Sam Darnold, especially since the Jets are thin at WR. Herndon is going to be joining Hayden Hurst and Jace Sternberger as my favorite late-round TE2 targets.
- The Jets helped Le’Veon Bell out by upgrading this O-line, but the Frank Gore signing has offset any positive momentum for him. He needs all the volume he can get since he’s no longer a threat to break off long gains, and Gore always snakes his way into more carries than expected.
New York Jets Livestream Highlights
