This article will cover each of the conference championship games. Both games are rematches from previous matchups earlier this season, so this writeup will mix in coverage tendencies/usage from those particular weeks on top of season-long samples.
Let’s get right to it!
Team Defenses
Team coverage rates through divisional round pic.twitter.com/8PgOwv7IKL
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) January 21, 2025
Quarterback Values
Lucrative Passing Offenses
Wide Receiver/Tight End Values
WAS @ PHI
The Washington Commanders (12-5) hit the road and get set to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) at 3:00 PM EST in the NFC championship game. The Eagles are currently 6-point home favorites and the game total is hovering around 47.5 points.
The Commanders are coming off of a stunning upset over the #1 seed Detroit Lions in the divisional round, winning by a final score of 45-31. The Eagles muscled out a 28-22 victory over the Los Angeles Rams at home in the elements.
As of now, the weather is projected to be in the low 30s and overcast.
Jayden Daniels ($7,000) is priced as the DK QB2 and Jalen Hurts ($6,500) the DK QB3.
Defensively, WAS deploys man coverage at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL (34.1%).
Overall, WAS doesn’t have noticeable single-high vs two-high splits. They rank 15th in two-high usage (48%) and 18th in single-high usage (52%).
In two games vs. PHI during the regular season, WAS ran a single-high at a 63.4% clip and a two-high at 36.6%.
Jalen Hurts ranks top five in fantasy points per dropback vs man coverage as well as vs single-high this season:
WAS blitzes at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL this season (36%). In their previous two games vs PHI, they blitzed at a 55% clip.
On a per-dropback basis, Jalen Hurts is an efficient fantasy QB when blitzed and when not blitzed. It’s interesting to note he targets his first read relatively more often when blitzed vs not:
Here are notable pass catchers in this contest:
Removing games vs WAS, PHI WR DeVonta Smith ($5,800) is averaging 15.4 DK PPG, and A.J. Brown ($6,800) is averaging 14.6 PPG.
In two games vs WAS, Brown has produced 19.1 DK PPG, while Smith has put up 9.0 PPG.
TE Dallas Goedert ($4,500) is an interesting cheaper pivot if WAS follows its single-high lean vs PHI from the regular season:
As for PHI defensively, here are their coverage rates on the season:
26% Man (17th)
68% Zone (17th)
52% Single-High (17th)
48% Two-High (16th)
In their previous two games vs WAS, PHI deployed zone on 66% of their coverage snaps and two-high shells on 51%.
PHI ran quarters at a 32% clip vs. WAS and has run it 20% against everyone else this season.
On a per dropback basis, Jayden Daniels is a stronger fantasy QB vs two-high shells relative to single-high looks:
Jayden Daniels exited the week 7 game vs CAR early due to a rib injury he took on a scramble. Daniels didn’t miss any games, but the team’s pass/dropback rate over expected (PROE) continued to fall from that following game vs CHI all the way to the team’s bye in week 14.
The WAS offense has been in positive PROE territory ever since leading up to their bye week:
Taking a look at WAS pass catchers vs these PHI coverage leans, WR Terry McLaurin ($6,700) and TE Zach Ertz ($4,300) are the team’s primary targets.
However, if you’re looking at WR depth, Olamide Zaccheaus ($3,900) might be a better value than his more expensive counterpart Dyami Brown ($4,400).
In last week’s article, we were in on Dyami Brown based on the coverage matchup, and it worked in our favor.
Brown saw 8 targets on 24 routes (team-high target share of 25.8%), notching 98 yards and 15.8 DK points. Zaccheaus saw 2 targets on 13 routes and finished with 0 DK points.
Zaccheaus is an overall more productive fantasy WR than Brown from these coverage splits:
In the team’s first two games vs PHI:
Olamide Zaccheaus
Targeted on 24% of 41 routes
13.0 DK points per game
0.63 DK points per route
Dyami Brown
Targeted on 16% of 43 routes
5.0 DK points per game
0.23 DK points per route
BUF @ KC
The Buffalo Bills (15-4) travel to Kansas City to battle the Chiefs (16-2) at 6:30 PM EST for the AFC Championship. The Chiefs are currently 1.5-point home favorites and the game total is hovering around 48.5 points.
This game is a rematch from Week 11, where BUF won on the road by a final score of 30-21 and handed KC their first loss of the season.
Josh Allen ($7,500) is priced as the DK QB1 and Patrick Mahomes ($6,000) the DK QB4.
Defensively, KC ranks 2nd in two-high usage (61.7%) and 9th in man usage (32.8%) this season.
Josh Allen ranks top five in fantasy points per dropback vs man as well as vs two-high:
Allen and Mahomes are the epitome of engines at the quarterback position. They wear a lot of stress in big games and when their team needs them the most, and they have most notably done so when playing each other over the years.
BUF’s PROE has continued falling since Allen’s heroic performances vs LA and DET, but it’s hard to imagine a close game vs KC where Allen isn’t dropping back much:
Here are notable pass catchers in this contest:
During the regular season, KC ranked 2nd among defenses in schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG allowed to opposing WRs lined up out wide (-4.1). However, they ranked worst among defenses in PPG allowed to opposing slot WRs (+4.5).
To me, these extreme alignment splits are more of a sign of the KC system's defensive strength and, therefore, reason to believe it has stability on its side.
BUF WR Khalil Shakir ($5,700) has run >70% of his routes from the slot. Shakir led BUF with 11 targets vs KC in week 11. This is one of just two occurrences this season where a BUF player recorded double-digit targets in a single game.
TE Dalton Kincaid ($3,600) did not play in the first game vs KC. Kincaid (76) ranks second on BUF in season targets behind only Shakir (110), and Kincaid has run nearly 60% of his routes from the slot.
KC ranked bottom five among defenses in schedule-adjusted PPG allowed to opposing TEs during the regular season (+2.3).
Shakir and Kincaid are both in good standing as it pertains to the coverage matchup at hand come Sunday, as does cheap WR Curtis Samuel ($3,500):
Defensively, BUF ranks 4th in two-high usage (55.4%) and 10th in zone usage (72.1%) this season.
TE Travis Kelce ($6,000) and rookie WR Xavier Worthy ($5,500) are the top-shelf fantasy targets in this KC offense.
WR Marquise Brown ($4,200) has played in three games this season (weeks 16-17 and in the divisional round vs HOU). Brown has seen a heavy dose of targets in his limited opportunities vs zone and two-high looks:
Since becoming active, Marquise Brown has participated in 49.6% of the team’s dropbacks. WR DeAndre Hopkins ($4,700) has participated on 50.4% of the team’s dropbacks in those games.
However, Brown has been targeted on 30% of his routes, and Hopkins on 16%. In KC’s last game vs. HOU, Brown participated on 71% of the team’s dropbacks, and Hopkins on just 42%.
If you’re concerned with price in this matchup, Brown is cheaper than Hopkins while arguably having preferable usage and coverage data on his side. If you’re really looking to differentiate lineups and have a strong appetite for risk, TE Noah Gray ($3,000) led all KC pass catchers with 18.3 DK points in the first matchup vs BUF.
